markets

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 424 points or 1.27%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.09%,
• S&P 500 up 1.73%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 down 2.53%,
• USD $105.64 up 0.52%,
• Gold $1801 down 0.05%,
• Bitcoin $24,165 up 0.17% – Session Low 23,654,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.838% down 0.05%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 763 Canada -2 to 201

Today’s Economic Releases:

Following along the path of the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index, Import and Export Price growth slowed in July 2022. U.S. import prices moderated from 10.7% year-over-year to 8.8%. Export prices moderated from 18.1% year-over-year to 13.1%. Import prices are what affect the average consumer but there is no correlation between import price inflation and economic growth.

The U.S. economy looks weaker now than it did three months ago, according to 35 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

	REAL GDP (%)		UNEMPLOYMENT RATE (%)		PAYROLLS (000S/MONTH)
	PREVIOUS	NEW	PREVIOUS	NEW	PREVIOUS	NEW
Quarterly data:
2022:Q3	2.5	1.4	3.5	3.5	293.7	342.5
2022:Q4	2.3	1.2	3.5	3.7	193.2	167.9
2023:Q1	2.1	1.1	3.5	3.8	158.8	89.0
2023:Q2	2.3	1.5	3.5	3.9	61.3	96.6
2023:Q3	N.A.	1.5	N.A.	4.0	N.A.	80.7

Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment moved up very slightly this month to about 5 index points above the all-time low reached in June. All components of the expectations index improved this month, particularly among low and middle-income consumers for whom inflation is particularly salient.

	Aug	Jul	Aug	M-M	Y-Y
	2022	2022	2021	Change	Change
Index of Consumer Sentiment	55.1	51.5	70.3	+7.0%	-21.6%
Current Economic Conditions	55.5	58.1	78.5	-4.5%	-29.3%
Index of Consumer Expectations	54.9	47.3	65.1	+16.1%	-15.7%

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Fall As Demand Concerns Persist
• Gulf Of Mexico Pipelines Could Restart Today
• Even airline employees are having trouble finding a seat home from Europe this summer
• Best Buy cuts jobs across the country, after warning of slower sales
• Texas Joins 18 States To Oppose Blackrock’s Woke Agenda
• Pension Funds Suffer Worst Year Since 2009
• Market Extra: Stock buybacks near $800 billion this year after hitting all-time record
• Bond Report: Treasury yields end higher for a second straight week after U.S. consumer-sentiment data

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 27 points or 0.08%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
• S&P 500 down 0.07%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $94 up 2.25%,
• USD $104.82 down 1.39%,
• Gold $1801 down 0.68%,
• Bitcoin $24,211 up 2.34% – Session Low 23,656,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.893% up 1.12%

Today’s Economic Releases:

In the week ending August 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims grew 14,000 from the previous week’s revised level, and the 4 week moving average increased 4,500 from the previous week’s revised average.

The Producer Price Index final demand prices moved up 9.8 percent for the 12 months ended in July 2022. Producer prices are a measure of inflation from the perspective of producers whilst the Consumer Price Index measures inflation from the standpoint of consumers. The bottom line is both the CPI and PPI moderated in July – and going forward, the year-over-year growth will be measured against a period where inflation was growing. Therefore, it is easy to speculate that inflation will continue to moderate.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Shell Halts Oil Output At Three Gulf Of Mexico Platforms
• Disney is raising prices, but this time, don’t blame inflation
• U.S. Postal Service to temporarily hike prices for the holiday season
• Justice Department seeks to unseal Trump raid search warrant, Attorney General Garland says
• Ethereum Soars To 2-Month High As Critical Test Passed, Merge Set For Sept 15
• The US Labor Market Is A House Of Cards – Here Are The Reasons Why
• Semiconductor companies have split into two groups — the resilient and the risky
• Bond Report: Ten-year Treasury yield rises to the highest level in three weeks despite signs of cooler inflation

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 535 points or 1.63%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.89%,
• S&P 500 up 2.13%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 up 0.998%,
• USD $104.82 down 1.39%,
• Gold $1806 down 0.34%,
• Bitcoin $23,674 up 2.49% – Session Low 22,750,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.786% down 0.11%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 8.5 percent year-over-year before seasonal adjustment – in June 2022 the index had increased 9.0 percent year-over-year. Over the gasoline component of the index moderated whilst food and shelter increased. Depending on how one spends their money, this 8.5 percent increase may be significantly higher. Although inflation did modestly moderate in July, it is still significant and likely puts on the table another 75 basis point increase in the federal funds rate during the September 20/21 Fed meeting.

June 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers, up 1.8 percent month-over-month and 20.4 percent year-over-year. Inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 1.8 percent month-over-month and up 25.5 percent year-over-year. The June inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.26. The June 2021 ratio was 1.21. Generally, the sales-to-inventory ratios spike during a recession.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies plunged to 58 in July, down 45% from the 106 CEO exits recorded in June. It is the lowest monthly total since April 2020, when the uncertainty and economic turmoil caused by the pandemic led to 48 CEO exits in that month. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

The economy is facing uncertainty right now, but it’s much more positive than in early 2020. Inflation fell in July, gas prices are falling steadily, the job market remains tight, and supply chain issues have mostly cleared up. Consumers lack confidence at the moment and interest rates are rising to battle inflation, which might slow business borrowing and some growth plans.

The U.S. Treasury’s Monthly Treasury Statement shows the fiscal-year-to-date deficit is $726 billion, a record year-over-year decrease of $1.814 trillion (71%), for the first ten months of the fiscal year. Fiscal-year-to-date Receipts were $787 billion (24%) higher, while Outlays were lower by $1.027 trillion (18%). July has been a deficit month 66 times out of 68 fiscal years since there are usually no major corporate or individual tax due dates in this month.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Is U.S. Inflation Actually Cooling Quicker Than Expected?
• Chip Shortages And Inflation Are Plaguing The Auto Industry
• How the EV tax credits in Democrats’ climate bill could hurt electric vehicle sales
• Business travel costs are expected to rise through 2023, industry report says
• Russian Spy Planes Enter Alaska Air Defense Zone In 1st Since Ukraine War: NORAD
• Key Words: No shrinkflation at Kellogg, CEO says. ‘If we make it smaller, we also make it cheaper’
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield slides by most in almost a week after U.S. inflation data bring downside surprises

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 58 points or 0.18%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.19%,
• S&P 500 down 0.42%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 91 down 0.2%,
• USD $106.36 down 0.01%,
• Gold 1811 up 0.33%,
• Bitcoin $23,123 down 3.51% – Session Low 22,940,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.781 up 0.18%

Today’s Economic Releases:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.4 points in July to 89.9, however, it is the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Thirty-seven percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, an increase of three points from June and the highest level since the fourth quarter of 1979. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

The uncertainty in the small business sector is climbing again as owners continue to manage historic inflation, labor shortages, and supply chain disruptions. As we move into the second half of 2022, owners will continue to manage their businesses into a very uncertain future.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 4.6 percent in the second quarter of 2022. From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 2.5 percent, reflecting a 1.5-percent increase in output and a 4.1-percent increase in hours worked. The 2.5-percent decline in labor productivity from the same quarter a year ago is the largest decline in this series, which begins in the first quarter of 1948. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector increased 10.8 percent in the second quarter of 2022, This is the largest four-quarter increase in this measure since a 10.6-percent increase in the first quarter of 1982.

In May 2022, 2.7% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure. This represents a 2-percentage point decrease in the overall delinquency rate compared with May 2021.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EIA Lowers U.S. Oil Production Forecast
• An Iran Nuclear Deal Could Send Oil Prices Tumbling Towards $80
• Germany May Consider Lifting Its Ban On Fracking Amid Energy Crisis
• Copper Prices Slide Sideways As Bulls And Bears Battle It Out
• Northrop Grumman moves Antares rocket work to U.S. from Russia and Ukraine with Firefly partnership
• Inflation Reduction Act extends ‘pass-through’ tax break limits for 2 more years. Here’s what that means for entrepreneurs
• With 87,000 new agents, here’s who the IRS may target for audits

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 29 points or 0.09%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.1%,
• S&P 500 down 0.12%,
• WTI crude oil at $90.30 up $1.28%,
• USD $106.38 down 0.23%,
• Gold $1805 up 0.78%,
• Bitcoin $23,961 up 3.4%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.75% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The July 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows substantial declines in short-, medium- and longer-term inflation expectations. Expectations about year-ahead price increases for gas and food fell sharply. Home price growth expectations and year-ahead spending growth expectations continued to pull back from recent series highs. Households’ income growth expectations improved.

The federal budget deficit was $727 billion in the first 10 months of fiscal year 2022, CBO estimates—$1.8 trillion less than it was at the same point last year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Analyst: Oil To Hit $120 Again By Winter
• China Extends Taiwan Drills, Says It Is Training Under Real War Conditions
• UN Calls For Inspection Of Shelled Ukrainian Nuclear Plant
• Consumer confidence in the housing market hits the lowest point in over a decade
• Boeing Dreamliner deliveries to resume in the ‘coming days,’ FAA says
• More Americans are working part-time — a potential harbinger of future jobs market instability
• “Looks Like A Battlefield”: Third Fuel Tank At Major Cuban Storage Facility Ignites

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 77 points or 0.23%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.50%,
• S&P 500 down 0.16%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 dup 0.65%,
• USD $106.55 up 0.75%,
• Gold $1774 down 0.87%,
• Bitcoin $22,961 up 1.96% – Session Low 22,485,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.827% up 0.151%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 764 Canada -1 to 203

Today’s Economic Releases:

The NBER considers indicators including nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, and retail sales, among others, in designating the start and end of U.S. recessions. Today’s July 2022 BLS employment report is showing nonfarm payrolls are far from recession territory with a significant gain in employment.

• The household survey showed an increase of 179,000 whilst the establishment survey says 528,000.
• The employment/population ratio remains on an improvement trend.
• The unemployment rate modestly reduced to 3.5% – but the larger reason for this slight reduction is that the civilian labor force was reduced by 63,000. In all cases, the establishment survey is volatile – and there can be significant changes month-over-month.
• A strong jobs report will allow the Fed to raise the federal funds rate another 75 basis points.

According to the Federal Reserve: “Consumer credit [in June 2022] increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.7 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 14.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 10.5 percent.” Looking at year-over-year growth, credit was up 7.7%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russian Refinery Returns To Operations After Drone Strike
• U.S. Drilling Activity Slows As Prices Ease
• AMC plans to issue 517 million shares of preferred stock, under the ticker symbol ‘APE’
• Job Gains & Powell’s Pains Demolish Dovish-Dreams, Spark Market Turmoil This Week
• Firearm Companies Say Packages Shipped With UPS Being Damaged, Disappearing: Reports
• Consumer Credit Surged In June, 2nd Largest Monthly Increase Ever
• Bond Report: Treasury yields surge after blockbuster U.S. July jobs data
• Market Extra: A red-hot July jobs number has traders penciling in another jumbo Fed rate hike

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 86 points or 0.26%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.41%,
• S&P 500 down 0.08%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 down 2.90%,
• USD $105.93 down 0.42%,
• Gold $1793 down 0.54%,
• Bitcoin $22,525 down 3.84% – Session Low 22,469,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.663% down 0.085%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Tomorrow the BLS will issue the employment report for July 2022. Small businesses across the country continue to raise wages to keep employees and fill a historically high level of open positions, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Seasonally adjusted, 49% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from June and down two points from May’s 48-year record high. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg says:

Hiring has never been harder for small business owners. The labor shortage remains frustrating for many small business owners as they continue to manage inflation and other economic headwinds. Owners are adjusting business operations where they can to help mitigate lost sales opportunities due to staffing shortages.

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in June 2022. Exports increased whilst imports decreased. In normal times, slowing imports suggests a slowing economy.

The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance weekly claims increased from the previous week’s revised average – and continues to moderately increase.

U.S.-based employers announced 25,810 cuts in July, a 20.6% decrease from the 32,517 cuts announced in June. It is 36.3% higher than the 18,942 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Prices At The Pump Continue To Plunge, But Stronger Demand Could Halt The Trend
• Burger King parent says more customers are redeeming coupons and loyalty rewards
• Nikola’s revenue tops expectations on the delivery of 48 electric trucks
• Restaurant Brands International earnings top estimates, fueled by stronger Tim Hortons, Burger King sales
• Walmart lays off corporate employees after slashing forecast
• Indian investors hunt for value in US stocks amid rate hikes
• From food to fuel: What sparked the transformation in the sugar industry?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 416 points or 1.29%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.59%,
• S&P 500 up 1.56%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 down 3.40%,
• USD $106.39 up 0.04%,
• Gold $1782 down 0.402%,
• Bitcoin $23,431 up 2.23% – Session Low 22,719,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.712% down 0.029%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services In July 2022 registered 56.7% – higher than the previous month’s 55.3%.

The U.S. Census June 2022 full report on manufacturers’ orders stated “New orders for manufactured goods in June, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $10.8 billion or 2.0 percent“. Unfortunately, this data is not inflation adjusted and the inflation-adjusted data continues to show that manufacturing has been in decline for the last 3 years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Fall To $90, But Its Not Enough For Biden
• Ford reports big jump in July sales, including for trucks and electric vehicles
• Starbucks earnings beat Wall Street estimates, fueled by U.S. demand for cold drinks
• Explosion In Retail Buying Revealed As Source Of Latest Market Meltup, Tesla Stock Surge
• Crypto: Michael Saylor drops Microstrategy CEO role — Here’s what it means for bitcoin
• Market Extra: This is where emerging-markets guru Mark Mobius sees ‘opportunities’ — and why U.S. stocks haven’t bottomed

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 402 points or 1.23%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.16%,
• S&P 500 down 0.67%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $94 up 0.362%,
• USD $106.20 up 0.10%,
• Gold $1761 up 0.07%,
• Bitcoin $23,001 up 0.10% – Session Low 22,697,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.761 up 1.56%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The CoreLogic Home prices (HPI) increased year-over-year by 18.3% in June 2022 and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6%.  The CoreLogic forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a year-over-year basis by 4.3% from June 2022 to June 2023.

The number of job openings decreased to 10.7 million on the last business day of June 2022. Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) were little changed.

The New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the second quarter of 2022, increasing by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion.

The signs from the releases today are of a slowing economy. Remember the 2007 recession was offically recognized one year after it began. If the economy continues to slow, the beginning recession marker would be in 1Q2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gas Shortage Sparks Energy Security Fears In Asia
• Venezuela’s Oil Exports Drop By More than A Third In July
• Mall owners say retailers are still opening stores in spite of recession fears
• Molson Coors stock falls as company cites split in consumer spending on beer
• Ford stock notches its best month since the Great Recession — and keeps rising
• LA County Removes Citizenship Requirements For Government Jobs
• Crypto: Bitcoin has already bottomed, has a fair value of $40,000, says Anthony Scaramucci

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 47 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
• S&P 500 down 0.28%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 94 down 4.50%,
• USD $105.43 down 0.47%,
• Gold $1771 down 0.07%,
• Bitcoin $22,988 down 3.78% – Session Low 22,891,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.595% down 0.47%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Construction spending during June 2022 was down 1.1% month-over-month and up 8.3% year-over-year. During the first six months of this year, construction spending is up 10.7% over the same period in 2021. But folks, since there is inflation, construction spending is contracting in 2022 and is down year-over-year – see the red line in the graph below:

According to the Institute of Supply Management, manufacturing activity was little changed in July 2022 – and remains at a level modestly in expansion and remains on an 18-month decline.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Today’s Energy Crisis Spells Disaster For The Global Economy
• Home prices cooled at a record pace in June, according to housing data firm
• Mortgage rates fall sharply after negative GDP report and Fed’s latest hike
• Ford CEO offers more clues about the automaker’s ambitious electric vehicle plans
• “No One Is Positioned For Any Good News:” Record Shorting In Tech Ensures ‘Most Hated Rally’ Will Continue
• Bond Report: Treasury yields fall in choppy trade to start August
• Living With Climate Change: Americans want EV tax incentives. But are they ready to lose gas cars forever?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.