markets

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 36 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.10%,
• S&P 500 down 0.65%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 down $2.42,
• USD $113 up $0.06,
• Gold $1673 down $1.50,
• Bitcoin $18,998 down 1.24% – Session Low 18,894,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.931% up 0.046%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 94 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.04%,
• S&P 500 down 0.75%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 down $2.36,
• USD $113.10 up $0.28,
• Gold $1675 down $34,
• Bitcoin $19,213 down 1.25% – Session Low 19,131,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.888% up 0.064%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 630 points or 2.11%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.80%,
• S&P 500 down 2.80%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $93 up $3.66,
• USD $112.87 up $0.64,
• Gold $1695 up $1.36
• Bitcoin $19,445 down 2.89% – Session Low 19,364,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.885% up 0.061%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 762 Canada +2 to 215

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September 2022, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care. The prime reason the unemployment rate dropped was the civilian workforce was reduced by 59,000 (all while the population increased by 172,000). As you can see from the graph below, the monthly employment gains have been moderating for almost a year.

August 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.1% month-over-month and were up 16.1% year-over-year. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 1.3% month-over-month and were up 25.0% year-over-year.
The inventories/sales ratio was 1.31 while the August 2021 ratio was 1.21. Generally speaking, there is no correlation between inventory/sales ratios and recessions except that the ratios spike when a recession is underway.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 347 points or 1.15%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.68%,
• S&P 500 down 1.03%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 up $1.01,
• USD $112.12 up $0.91,
• Gold $1714 up $0.43
• Bitcoin $20,019 down 0.7% – Session Low 19,910,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.820% up 0.61%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Small business owners reporting labor quality as their top business operating problem remains elevated at 22% in September, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Labor cost reported as the single most important problem to business owners was unchanged at 10%.

In September 2022, the Services PMI registered 56.7%, 0.2 percentage points lower than August’s reading of 56.9%. The Business Activity Index registered 59.1%, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 60.9% the previous month. The business activity index correlates better to economic activity. An index value of 50% separates expansion and contraction.

In the week ending October 1, the 4-week moving average for initial unemployment insurance claims was 206,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. This data is saying the economy is relatively stable.

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U.S.-based employers announced 29,989 cuts in September, a 46.4% increase from the 20,485 cuts announced in August. It is 67.6% higher than the 17,898 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 42 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.25%,
• S&P 500 down 0.20%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $1.45
• USD $111.06 up $0.86,
• Gold $1717 up $0.75
• Bitcoin $20,209 down 0.7% – Session Low 19,788,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.753% up 0.14%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The goods and services deficit was $67.4 billion in August 2022, down $3.1 billion from $70.5 billion in July. Yes, the trade deficit has been shrinking because imports have been shrinking whilst exports have remained relatively level (see graph below). Generally a decline in imports is a sign the economy is slowing.

Private sector employment increased by 208,000 jobs in September 2022 according to the September ADP National Employment Report. The biggest gains were in the trade / transportation / utilities sector. The ADP numbers were good this month showing employment remains strong – but historically ADP has not been a good indicator (blue line on graph below) for this Friday’s BLS non-farm private employment (red line on graph below).

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A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 825 points or 2.80%,
• Nasdaq closed up 3.34%,
• S&P 500 up 3.06%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $2.63
• USD $110.44 down $1.23,
• Gold $1725 up $31.60,
• Bitcoin $20,198 up 3.41% – Session Low 19,519,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.635% down 0.02%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Home Price Trends from CoreLogic Through August 2022 showed year-over-year home price appreciation slowed to 13.5% in August, the fourth consecutive month of lower annual growth. Price growth is projected to decelerate to 3.2% by August 2023, with more metro areas now likely to see decreases.

The number of job openings decreased to 10.1 million on the last business day of August Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.3 million and 6.0 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) were little changed. The bottom line is that job openings are still significantly high, but it appears business in general either is faced with a slowing marketplace or is figuring out how to get by without additional hiring.

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2022, down two consecutive months, were down but virtually unchanged. The unfilled orders-to-shipments ratio was 6.01, down from 6.05 in July. Inventories, down two consecutive months, decreased $1.2 billion or 0.1 percent to $800.2 billion. This followed a virtually unchanged July decrease. The inventories-to-shipments ratio was 1.46, down from 1.47 in July. This data release is indicating manufacturing is pretty much stable.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 765 points or 2.66%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.27%,
• S&P 500 up 2.59%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $3.57
• USD $111.85 down $0.25,
• Gold 1701 unchanged,
• Bitcoin $19,547 up 1.45% – Session Low 18,948,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.659% down 0.145%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, commodity prices as of market close.

Today’s Economic Releases:

Construction spending during August 2022 was down 0.7% month-over-month and up 8.5% year-over-year. During the first eight months of this year, construction spending increased 10.9%. Inflation adjusted construction spending declined 11.7% year-over-year as inflation in this sector exceeds 22% (see graph below)

The September 2022 Manufacturing PMI registered 50.9% which is lower than the 52.8% last month. Any number above 50% represents expansion but this is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered 43.5%. This suggests that this manufacturing sector is barely growing.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 495 points or 1.70%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.51%,
• S&P 500 down 1.45%,
• Gold $1669 up $0.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $1.56,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.821% up 0.072%,
• USD index $112.15 weakening 0.1%,
• Bitcoin $19,439 down $154,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 765 rigs

Today’s Economic Releases:

Chicago Business Barometer stabilized in August.  The indicator inched up 0.1 points to 52.2. The only sub-indicators to fall were employment and supplier deliveries, while price paid was unchanged from previous month.

Personal income increased 0.3% at a monthly rate with consumer spending increasing 0.4% in August 2022. When these numbers are adjusted for inflation personal consumption year-over-year growth is up 2.1% whilst income remains in contraction at -4.7% (see graph below). It is interesting that consumption seems to keep on humming whilst income remains underwater.

Michigan Consumer sentiment confirmed the preliminary reading earlier this month and was essentially unchanged from the month prior, at less than one index point above August. Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook for business conditions. As seen in the chart, sentiment for consumers across the income distribution has declined in a remarkably close fashion for the last 6 months, reflecting shared concerns over the impact of inflation, even among higher-income consumers who have historically generated the lion’s share of spending.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 458 points or 1.54%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.84%,
• S&P 500 down 2.11%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 unchanged,
• USD $112.11 down $0.64,
• Gold $1661 little changed,
• Bitcoin $19,420 down 0.51% – Session Low 18,883,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.759% up 0.71%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, commodity prices as of the market close.

Today’s Economic Releases:

In the week ending September 24, the 4-week moving average for seasonally adjusted unemployment insurance claims was 207,000, a decrease of 8,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The 4-week moving average continues to moderate.

The third estimate of 2Q2022 Real Gross Domestic Product was unchanged from the previous estimate of -0.6%. This was the second economic decline in a row as 1Q2022 real GDP decreased 1.6%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 547 points or 1.88%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.05%,
• S&P 500 up 1.96%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $3.51,
• USD $112.75 down $1.36,
• Gold $1661 up $32,
• Bitcoin $19,543 up 2.69% – Session Low $18,505,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.707% down 0.256%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, commodity prices as of the market close.

Today’s Economic Releases:

As one would expect higher mortgage rates to affect home sales – pending home sales declined for the third straight month in August 2022. Pending homes sales is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, which fell 2.0% month-over-month and fell 24.2% year-over-year.

7,201,572 single- and multifamily residences in Hurricane Ian’s path with high flash flood risk:

• The National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently forecasts that the entire state of Florida is at some level of flash flood risk due to heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ian. Most of the state is at moderate (40%) or greater risk. The cities of Tampa Bay and Orlando have a 70% chance of flash flooding (Figure 1).

• CoreLogic estimates that 7,201,572 single- and multifamily residences (SFRs and MFRs) with a combined total reconstruction value (RCV) of $1.6 trillion are within the “moderate” and “high” flash flood risk bands, as forecasted by NHC (Figure 1). Note, this does not indicate that every single home within these bands will flood, nor that any flooded home will sustain 100% damage up to its full RCV. This estimate accounts for flash flooding only and excludes homes that at risk to riverine and coastal flooding.

Figure 1: Hurricane Ian 1 to 3-day flash flood risk valid September 28 – October 1.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: