Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 176 points or 0.53%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.21%,
• S&P 500 up 0.59%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $2.60,
• USD $104.30 down $0.14,
• Gold $1804 up $10.20,
• Bitcoin $16,806 up 0.10% – Session Low 16,775,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.751% up 0.08%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November 2022, down following three consecutive monthly increases, decreased by 2.1%. However, inflation-adjusted new orders for durable goods declined to 1% year-over-year from 4.5% the previous month. This could be a sign that the economy is slowing.

Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2022 were 15.3% below November 2021. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2022 was $471,200. The average sales price was $543,600.

Real Disposable Personal income in November 2022 declined 2.5% year-over-year (improved from last month’s -3.0%). Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is 2.0% year-over-year (improved from last month’s 1.9%). The PCE price index increased 5.5% year-over-year moderating from 6,1% in the previous month. Moderation of the price index is a positive sign.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 349 points or 1.05%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.18%,
• S&P 500 down 1.45%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.20,
• USD $104.38 up $0.22,
• Gold $1800 down $25.30,
• Bitcoin $16,782 flat 0.00% – Session Low 16,573,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.679% down 0.004%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 779 Canada -103 to 96

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 527 points or 1.60%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.54%,
• S&P 500 up 1.49%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $2.22,
• USD $104.03 down $0.69,
• Gold $1824 down $1.10,
• Bitcoin $16,780 down 0.54% – Session Low 16,744,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.365% down 0.009%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Existing-home sales fell for the tenth consecutive month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million. Sales slipped 7.7% from October and 35.4% from the previous year. The median existing-home sales price rose to $370,700, an increase of 3.5% from one year ago. The inventory of unsold existing homes retreated for the fourth straight month to 1.14 million at the end of November or the equivalent of 3.3 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. Home sales continue to decline due to the increase in mortgage rates.

U.S. financial executives are generally pessimistic about next year’s economy, saying they expect price growth to subside some in 2023 but still remain high. They also report that wages at their firms have not kept pace with inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 92 points or 0.28%,
• Nasdaq closed up and flat 0.01%,
• S&P 500 up 0.11%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $0.83,
• USD $104.03 down $0.69,
• Gold $1828 up $30.30,
• Bitcoin $16,862 up 2.54% – Session Low 16,375,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.694% up 0.111%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in November 2022 are 22.4% below November 2021 (blue line on the graph below). Privately‐owned housing starts in November were 16.4% below November 2021 (red line on the graph below). Housing Completions Privately‐owned housing completions in November were 6.0% above November 2021 (green line on the graph below). The housing market continues to slow due to the higher mortgage.

Nationwide, rent prices were up by 8.8% year over year in October, the lowest rate of growth recorded since June 2021. Three of four tracked price tiers posted lower rental cost increases than in October 2021, with only the lowest tier seeing a 1.3 percentage point acceleration in growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 163 points or 0.49%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.49%,
• S&P 500 down 0.90%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.36,
• USD $104.78 up $0.22,
• Gold $1797 down $3.60,
• Bitcoin $16,607 down 0.96% – Session Low 16,547,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.588% up 0.108%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s November 2022 SCE Labor Market Survey shows the proportion of individuals who reported searching for a job in the past four weeks decreased to 18.8% from 24.7% in July 2022. The decline was broad-based across income, education, and age groups. Satisfaction with wage compensation, non-wage benefits and promotion opportunities all improved in November. Conditional on expecting an offer, the average expected annual salary of job offers in the next four months increased from $60,310 in July to $61,187 in November, reaching a new series high. The average reservation wage—the lowest wage respondents would be willing to accept for a new job—increased from $72,873 in July to $73,667 in November, the highest reading of the series. The increase was most pronounced for respondents below age 45.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 282 points or 0.85%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.97%,
• S&P 500 down 1.11%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $1.78,
• USD $104.78 up $0.22,
• Gold $1802 up $14,60,
• Bitcoin $16,895 down 2.99% – Session Low 16,781,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.488% up 0.004%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 776 Canada -3 to 199

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Livingston Survey for December 2022 project decreasing real GDP growth, increasing unemployment, higher inflation, higher short term interest rates, and lower expectations for stock market pricing.

Container movements through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are a bellwether for economic growth. Imports in December 2022 are down 74% year-over-year and exports are up 111% year-over-year. Although there are many factors in play, this suggests a slowing of the U.S. economy.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 764 points or 2.25%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.23%,
• S&P 500 down 2.49%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.16,
• USD $104.60 up $0.83,
• Gold $1787 down $31.60,
• Bitcoin $17,428 down $394 – Session Low 17,351,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.45% down 0.053%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philadephia Fed’s manufacturing index remained negative in December 2022 but rose 6 points to -13.8 this month (see Chart 1). This is its fourth consecutive negative reading and sixth negative reading in the past seven months. Thirty-one percent of the firms reported declines in activity, while 17 percent reported increases. The majority (51 percent) reported no change.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022 are up 6.5% above November 2021 – however, inflation-adjusted growth declined 0.7% year-over-year which suggests a modest decline in economic growth.

The combined value of manufacturers’ and trade sales (business sales) for October 2022 was up 10.1% from October 2021. Manufacturers and trade inventories  (business inventories) for October were up 16.5% from October 2021. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.33 (blue line on the graph below) – The October 2021 ratio was 1.25. A growing ratio suggests a slowing economy.

Industrial production declined to 2.5% year-over-year (blue line in the graph below) in November 2022. Year-over-year for the components: manufacturing (declined to 1.0% – red line in the graph below), mining (declined to 3.6% – orange line in the graph below), utilities (increased to 2.6% – green line in the graph below). Capacity utilization moved down 0.2 percentage points in November to 79.7 percent, a rate that is 0.1 percentage points above its long-run (1972–2021) average.

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell sixteen points to -11.2. New orders moved slightly lower, while shipments edged higher.

In the week ending December 10, the unemployment insurance initial claims 4-week moving average was 227,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 143 points or 0.42%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.76%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.61%,
• Gold $1819 down $6.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.98,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.476% down 0.026 points,
• USD index $103.63 down $0.35,
• Bitcoin $17,827 up $54.60

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

U.S. import prices moderated in November 2022 to 2.7% year-over-year from 4.1% the previous month. Lower nonfuel and fuel prices contributed to the November decline in U.S. import prices. U.S. export prices also moderated to 6.3% from 7.4% the previous month. Lower nonagricultural prices in November more than offset higher agricultural prices. This is another sign that inflation is moderating.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 104 points or 0.30%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.01%,
• S&P 500 up 0.73%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $2.25,
• USD $104.97 up $1.10,
• Gold $1823 up $30.40,
• Bitcoin $17,751 up 3.86% – Session Low 17,107,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.519% down 0.095%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Inflation Pressures Ease Slightly on Main Street but Remains the Top Business Problem according to November’s Optimism Index reading stays below 49-year average. Inflation remains the top business problem for small business owners, with 32% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their business, five points lower than July’s highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1979. The Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.6 points in November to 91.9.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 months increased by 7.1% (blue line in the graph below) – but has declined almost 2% from the high mark this year AND is now at the lowest level in 2022.  The index for all items less food and energy declined to 6.0% (red line in the graph below). This does take some pressure off of the Federal Reserve as it is beginning to show their policies are making progress in lowering inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 529 points or 1.58%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.26%,
• S&P 500 up 1.43%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $2.39,
• USD $104.97 up $0.20,
• Gold $1792 down $19.30,
• Bitcoin $17,153 up 0.18% – Session Low 16,890,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.613% up 0.046%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the November 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations decreased in November at the short, medium, and longer terms. Home price growth expectations continued to decline. Labor market expectations strengthened, while household income growth expectations increased to a new series high. Median inflation expectations decreased at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons in November to 5.2% and 3.0% respectively.

Per the monthly Treasury Statement issued by US Treasury, November has been a deficit month 68 times out of 69 fiscal years since there are no major tax due dates in this month.  The deficit in November 2022 was $249 billion.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: