Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 233 points or 0.68%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.39%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
• Gold $1,960 up $1.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.800% down 0.041 points,
• USD Index $103.06 down $0.28,
• Bitcoin $25,853 up $21,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve did what the market expected holding the federal funds rate steady stating in part:

…  the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent. Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

Their forward-looking words on what happens next:

;;; In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

The bottom line is that this statement really gives you no clues on the future of the federal funds rate. However, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference did indicate future rate hikes as well as well as dot-plots which show 2 more increases. Further, Chair Powell said he doesn’t see a rate cut until inflation comes down meaningfully and significantly, and that can take a couple of years.

Inflation seems to have been tamed as the producer price index (PPI) has fallen from 2.3% in April to 1.1% in May 2023. The PPI less foods and energy declined from 3.3% to 2.8% in May.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Rystad Sees Major Jump In Battery Storage Capacity Through 2030
• Polysilicon Price Surge: A Challenge For Emerging Solar Markets
• Oil Moves Lower After EIA Confirms Large Crude Build
• JP Morgan Slashes Oil Price Forecast To $81 This Year
• Shell To Raise Dividend By 15% As It Doubles Down On Oil And Gas
• Fed recap: Breaking down the market’s reaction to the Fed’s pause and all of Powell’s key comments
• S&P 500 closes little changed after Fed leaves rates unchanged, signals more hikes are coming: Live updates
• Treasury yields waver as traders weigh latest Fed decision and potential moves going forward
• Stocks & Gold Slump After Hawkish Fed Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring
• The Fed: Fed skips June interest-rate hike, but points to two more increases this year
• Futures Movers: Oil settles lower as an ‘adjustment’ contributes to a nearly 8 million-barrel weekly U.S. crude supply climb

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 146 points or 0.43%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.83%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.69%,
• Gold $1,956 down $13.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $2.06,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.829% up 0.064 points,
• USD Index $103.31 down $0.34,
• Bitcoin $25,874 up $54,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Pundits believe the Federal Reserve will pass on raising the federal funds rate tomorrow because year-over-year inflation has now fallen to 4.0% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) according to today’s consumer price index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) data for May 2023. Note that the CPI-U less food and energy index rose 5.3% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). Actually, food is up 6.7% year-over-year – and it is energy (think gas and oils) which is DOWN 11.7% year-over-year. It is energy driving the decline in the CPI, and this pundit would keep raising the federal funds rate (green boxed line on the graph below) until a sizeable decline in the CPI-U less food and energy is observed. The Fed believes there is a lag between raising rates and the effect on inflation of raising those rates – there is a lag but not a significant one when labor compensation is rising at a fast clip also. CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp added:

While the Fed is unlikely to steer away from the communicated path and will most likely keep the rates steady on Wednesday, Tuesday’s CPI report suggests that inflation pressures persist and the Fed will consider another hike next month. The likelihood of another hike or two has also increased given lack of credit crunch the Fed was expecting from the banking sector. As a result, mortgage rates, while still on a gradual decline, are likely to remain higher through the remainder of year.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.4 points in May to 89.4, which is the 17^th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. The last time the Index was at or above the average was in December 2021. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months declined one point from April to a net negative 50%. Twenty-five percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up two points from last month and followed by labor quality at 24%. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Overall, small business owners are expressing concerns for future business conditions. Supply chain disruptions and labor shortages will continue to limit the ability of many small firms to meet the demand for their products and services, while less severe than last year’s experience.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China At The Forefront Of Nuclear Weapon Expansion
• May Inflation Comes In Lower Than Expected
• Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of Fed Meeting
• Oil Soars Nearly 4% Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision
• Pay rise surprise leads to forecasts of higher interest rates
• Mortgages: New squeeze on landlords will hit renters too
• Ahead of Market: 10 things that will decide D-Street action on Wednesday
• Should you be worried if your crypto is in Binance.US or Coinbase?
• NerdWallet: ‘What if I live too long?’ Five things to know about taking Social Security at 62.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 190 points or 0.56%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.53%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.93%,
• Gold $1,972 down $4.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $3.08,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.736% down 0.009 points,
• USD Index $103.61 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $25,830 down $248,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Survey of Consumer Expectations shows inflation expectations declined to 4.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, its lowest reading since May 2021, but increased slightly to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively. Labor market expectations were mixed with expected earnings growth declining, and unemployment expectations and perceived job loss risk improving. Households’ perceptions and expectations for credit conditions and their own financial situations deteriorated slightly.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Gasoline Prices Ripe For Volatility
• Pakistan Pays For Discounted Russian Oil In Yuan
• Saudi Arabia Signs $5.6 Billion EV Deal With China
• WTI Plunges 4% Ahead Of Fed Rate Decision
• Goldman Sachs Slashes Year-End Oil Price Forecast To $86
• More Than Half Of China’s Power Capacity Is Now Non-Fossil Fuels
• S&P 500 closes at the highest level since April 2022 as traders hope the Fed will skip a rate hike: Live updates
• Inflation report Tuesday will be critical for the direction of Fed policy
• The S&P 500 could pop after Tuesday’s consumer price index report, JPMorgan’s trading desk says
• Fox News sends Tucker Carlson cease-and-desist letter over new Twitter show
• Market Extra: It’s a ‘bull market’ for stocks. Here’s what that means.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 43 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.11%,
• Gold $1,975 down $3.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $1.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.743% up 0.029 points,
• USD Index $103.33 up $0.23,
• Bitcoin $26,423 down $115,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 695 Canada +39 to 136

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

None

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Pentagon Papers Show Saudi Arabia, U.S. Traded Threats Over Oil
• U.S. Drilling Activity Continues Its Slide
• Canadian Wildfires Trigger Unprecedented Solar Energy Decline
• Smoke Causes U.S. Solar Power Generation To Plunge By 50%
• The Prospect Of Weaponizing Oil Against China
• JPMorgan bond chief Bob Michele sees worrying echoes of 2008 in market calm
• S&P 500 notches fourth straight positive week, touches highest level since August: Live updates
• Americans owe nearly $1 trillion in credit card debt—here’s the breakdown by age
• The IRS is cracking down on a popular small business tax break that could lead to a costly audit
• Market Snapshot: S&P 500 rises modestly after bear-market exit, investors look ahead to Fed meeting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 169 points or 0.50%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.02%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.62%,
• Gold $1,980 up $21.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $1.53,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.714% down 0.07 points,
• USD Index $103.33 down $0.77,
• Bitcoin $26,545 up $84,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

April 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 3.4% from April 2022. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 6.3% from April 2022. The April inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.40 (blue line on the graph below). The bottom line is that the inventories/sales ratio is rising which normally indicates a slowing economy.

In the week ending June 3, the 4-week moving average for initial insurance unemployment claims was 237,250, an increase of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 229,500 to 229,750. Note the red line on the graph below which shows the weekly initial claims which is volatile and it shows the highest level for initial claims since October 30, 2021.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Is Recycling The Answer To Rare Earth Shortages?
• Auto Giants Slash Prices, Drive Chinese Auto Market Upturn
• OPEC’s Smallest Producer Sees Crude Oil Exports Drop To Zero
• Study Shows Why Organic Solar Cells Are Degrading So Fast
• China Set To Become The World’s Largest Green Hydrogen Importer By 2030
• U.S. Solar Installations Jump 47% In Q1
• Dow rises more than 160 points to notch third straight day of gains, S&P 500 hits new closing high for 2023: Live updates
• Google to crack down on office attendance, asks remote workers to reconsider
• Warner Bros. Discovery stock rises for second straight day as company pays down debt
• VIX Dumps, Gold Pumps, Jobless Jump As Trillion-Dollar Bill-Bomb Looms
• Project Syndicate: AI is now giving big business the power to bust labor unions
• In One Chart: ‘Buying the dip’ is making a major stock-market comeback in 2023 as strategy heads for 3rd-best year ever

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 92 points or 0.27%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.29%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.38%,
• Gold $1,958 down $23.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.88,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.791% up 0.093 points,
• USD Index $104.17 up $0.04,
• Bitcoin $26,490 down $642,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

April exports were $249.0 billion, $9.2 billion less than March exports. April imports were $323.6 billion, $4.8 billion more than March imports. Year-to-date, the goods and services deficit decreased 23.9% from the same period in 2022. Inflation-adjusted exports increased 4.4% year-over-year whilst inflation-adjusted imports increased only 0.3%. Imports are an indicator of the strength of the economy – and show the economy is insignificantly growing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russian Crude Prices Via Druzhba Pipeline To Jump 16% After Dam Collapse
• Saudi Growth Outlook Expected To Slow 2.1% On Oil Output Cuts
• Bitcoin Sinks As Crypto Companies Grapple With SEC Lawsuits
• U.S. Sanctions Iranian And Chinese Companies Over Ballistic Missiles
• The Single Most Important Factor For Oil Prices This Year
• S&P 500, Nasdaq end Wednesday lower as market rally pauses: Live updates
• Cybersecurity ETFs gain steam as investors look for A.I. plays
• Landlords Face A $1.5 Trillion Bill For Interest-Only Commercial Mortgages
• Market Snapshot: Nasdaq tumbles as Treasury yields rise on Fed rate hike expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 10 points or 0.03%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.36%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.23%,
• Gold $1,979 up $4.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.69,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.689% down 0.004 points,
• USD Index $104.15 up $0.14,
• Bitcoin $27,146 up $1,478,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Home Price Growth Continues its Annual Single-Digit Slowdown in April according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) and HPI Forecast^™ for April 2023. U.S. home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 2% year over year in April 2023 compared with April 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.2% compared with March 2023. CoreLogic forecasts show annual U.S. home price gains increasing to 4.6% by April 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gas Stove Regulations Aren’t Done Deal Just Yet
• China And Russia Lock Horns Over Kazakhstan’s Uranium
• Chinese Steel Prices Fall To Three-Year Low
• Shell Halts Unit At Europe’s Biggest Refinery Due To Leak
• Dam Destruction Threatens Ukraine’s Largest Nuclear Plant
• I tried the Apple Vision Pro mixed-reality headset — here’s what it’s like
• Boeing warns new defect on 787 Dreamliners will slow deliveries
• S&P 500 ticks up on Tuesday to close at the highest level in 2023: Live updates
• Market Snapshot: Small-cap stocks rally while Dow dips, as investors consider economic outlook

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 200 points or 0.59%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.09%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.20%,
• Gold $1,978 up $8.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.84,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.695% up 0.002 points,
• USD Index $104.01 down $0.01,
• Bitcoin $25,632 down $1,559,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In May 2023, the ISM Services PMI^® registered 50.3%, 1.6 percentage points lower than April’s reading of 51.9%. The composite index indicated growth in May for the fifth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2% in December, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4%). A reading under 55% is not only indicative of an economy barely growing but also in the recession warning zone.

New orders for manufactured goods in April, up four of the last five months, increased $2.6 billion or 0.4 percent to $577.5 billion. However, growth was down 1.1% year-over-year – and there is no question that the manufacturing sector is in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Majors Keen On Libya’s Untapped Potential
• New Car Sales In UK Drive Forward For The Tenth Month
• Blurred Battle Lines: Drone Strikes Stoke Russia-Ukraine Conflict
• China’s Economic Rebound Reshapes Emerging Markets
• Goldman Sachs Warns ESG Investors Against Rushing To Divest From Oil And Gas
• S&P 500 closes slightly lower on Monday after touching highest level since August: Live updates
• Bitcoin drops below $26,000 after SEC sues crypto exchange Binance
• History Suggests VIX Is Poised For Sharp Reversal
• Brett Arends’s ROI: The S&P 500 is ridiculous. Here’s why.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 701 points or 2.12%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.45%,
• Gold $1,965 down $30.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.84,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.695% down 0.088 points,
• USD Index $104.04 up $0.48,
• Bitcoin $27,272 up $385,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -15 to 696 Canada +10 to 97

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Note that a new study from the CDC suggests that 96% of Americans have some degree of immunity against COVID.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7 percent. 

The largest job gains in May were in professional and business services (+113,000), government (+56,000), health care (+52,000), construction (+30,000), and transportation and warehousing (+25,000).  On the surface, the numbers appear good, however:

• the household survey portion of the data says the workforce employment DECLINED by 310,000 versus the establishment portion (which provides the headline payroll employment numbers) says employment increased by 339,000.
• the household portion (which provides the headline unemployment percentages) says the labor force increased by 130,000.
• with such a discrepancy between the establishment and household surveys- I would be really slow to discuss any takeaways from the May employment report. So, let the pundits spin this piece of crap report any way they like but you should know that the spin is pure opinion.
• in any event, hours worked is normal for periods of economic expansion.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Climb As U.S. Rig Count Sees Another Double-Digit Decline
• The Market Expects OPEC+ To Keep Oil Production Unchanged
• Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of OPEC Meeting
• Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates
• Here’s where the jobs are for May 2023 — in one chart
• Telecom stocks fall on report Amazon considers launching mobile service for Prime members
• West Coast ports shut down as union workers ‘no show’ after breakdown in wage negotiations
• Bitcoin crosses $27,000, and lawsuit accuses Elon Musk of manipulating DOGE’s price: CNBC Crypto World
• FBI To Finally Hand Over Biden Corruption Docs Under Threat Of Contempt
• Verizon’s stock sinks to 12-year low while Dish’s soars after report Amazon is in talks to offer mobile plans for Prime members
• Market Extra: S&P 500 nears bear-market exit. Will Big Tech’s rally finally spread to the broader stock market?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 154 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.28%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.99%,
• Gold $1,996 up $13.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.96,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.605% down 0.032 points,
• USD Index $103.55 down $0.78,
• Bitcoin $26,864 down $209,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP National Employment Report from the ADP Research Institute shows private employers created 278,000 jobs in May 2023 and annual pay was up 6.5 percent year-over-year. Job growth is strong while pay growth continues to slow. But gains in private employment were fragmented last month, with leisure and hospitality, natural resources, and construction taking the lead whilst manufacturing and finance lost jobs. Strong employment gains will allow the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist stated:

This is the second month we’ve seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers. Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 44% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from April but still 20 points higher than the 49-year average reading. The percentage of owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 24% and 10% of owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The labor force participation rate remains below pre-COVID levels, which is contributing to the shortage of workers available to fill open positions. Small businesses have a record high level of job openings currently and are working hard to fill their open positions.

Construction spending during April 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of  7.2% above April 2022. However, when the spending is adjusted for inflation – spending declined 3.4% year-over-year. This is a sign of a weak economy.

In the week ending May 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 231,750 to 232,000.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 0.8% from the first quarter one year ago whilst labor costs increased by 3.8% in the same period. Whenever labor costs rise faster than productivity – it is not only inflationary but makes the country less competitive.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 48.4 in May, down from 50.2 in April, but broadly in line with the earlier released ‘flash’ estimate of 48.5. The latest figure indicated the fastest deterioration in operating conditions since February. Contributing to the latest overall decline was a renewed and solid fall in new orders at manufacturing firms in May. The decrease was the sharpest in three months. Lower new sales were often attributed to sufficient inventory levels at customers and previous hikes in selling prices which served to dampen demand conditions. F

The May Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.9%, 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion.

U.S.-based employers announced 80,089 job cuts in May, a 20% increase from the 66,995 cuts announced one month prior. It is 287% higher than the 20,712 cuts announced in the same month in 2022. So far this year, companies have announced plans to cut 417,500 jobs, a 315% increase from the 100,694 cuts announced in the same period last year. It is the highest January-May total since 2020.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Grid Needs A $20 Trillion Upgrade To Support Energy Transition
• Copper Prices Trounced By Falling Demand
• WTI Screams Back Up Past $70 Despite Crude Inventory Builds
• Natural Gas Prices Plunge Further Amid Rise In U.S. Stockpiles
• Why Apple’s VR headset could succeed where every similar product has failed
• Defense spending levels threaten to delay Senate plan to fast-track debt ceiling bill
• Stocks jump Thursday, Nasdaq pops 1% as traders cheer advancement of debt ceiling bill: Live updates
• Bitcoin suffers worst month of 2023, Circle cuts U.S. bonds on debt ceiling doubt: CNBC Crypto World
• Wage hikes may have been a key driver of inflation. They may now be fueling mass layoffs
• Planned Layoffs Are Up Fourfold So Far This Year
• Dell stock jumps after early earnings release shows largest sales decline on record, but still beats expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.