Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 336 points or 1.01%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.64%,
• Gold $1,994 down $28.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.51,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.538% up 0.003 points,
• USD Index $102.61 up $0.17,
• Bitcoin $26,916 down $465,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023 were $686.1 billion, up 0.4% from the previous month, and up 1.6% above April 2022 (down 3.3% year-over-year inflation adjusted). Here are some of the key findings from the report:

• Sales of nonstore retailers, which includes online retailers, were up 8.0 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year.
• Sales of food services and drinking places were up 9.4 percent (±2.5 percent) from April 2022.
• Sales of general merchandise stores were up 4.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year.
• Sales of motor vehicle and parts dealers were down 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year.
• Sales of building materials and garden supplies dealers were down 3.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year.

Overall, the advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023 were weak as inflation erodes the headline numbers.

The Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production for April 2023 came in at 103.0, up 0.5% from March 2023 and 0.2% from April 2022. The contributions of the major industry groups:

• Manufacturing: Down 0.9% from April 2022.
• Mining: Up 5.6% from April 2022.
• Utilities: Down 0.4% from April 2022.

Overall, the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production for April 2023 shows significant weakness with little growth.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Copper Prices Slide Despite Expected Deficit
• Bullish Messaging Bolsters Oil Prices
• WTO Chief: Nigeria Can’t Rely On Oil & Gas Revenues
• Record Chinese Oil Demand Prompts IEA To Lift Global Growth Forecast
• Big Oil Could Face $12 Billion Bill To Clean Up Nigerian Spills
• Why Home Depot’s weak outlook could be a warning sign for Target earnings
• Here’s what happened during OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s first hearing on artificial intelligence
• Black Sea grain deal that reopened key Ukraine ports set to expire this week as Kremlin mulls a potential extension
• Key Words: Comcast is ‘more likely than not’ to sell Hulu stake to Disney next year, CEO says
• Market Snapshot: Dow falls, Nasdaq edges up with U.S. debt-ceiling talks in focus

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 48 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.66%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.30%,
• Gold $2,020 up $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.21,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.496% up 0.033 points,
• USD Index $102.42 down $0.26,
• Bitcoin $27,417 up $522,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Empire State Manufacturing Index for May 2023 came in at -31.8, down from 10.8 in April. This is the lowest reading since April 2020, and it suggests that manufacturing activity in New York State is contracting at a rapid pace. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in new orders, which fell to -28.0 from 25.1 in April. Shipments also declined, falling to -16.4 from 23.9 in April. One month is not a trend but this decline was so steep that it makes one wonder if the manufacturing sector just hit a brick wall.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran Seizes Third Oil Tanker As U.S. Boosts Military Presence
• Global Platinum Shortage Set To Worsen
• U.S. Natural Gas Drilling Collapses At Fastest Fastest Pace Since 2016
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Set For A Significant Decline
• Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand
• S&P 500 closes higher as debt ceiling negotiations in Washington are set to resume: Live updates
• Microsoft releases update that allows iPhone users to text from Windows
• Dollar Weaponization Expands – FDIC Message To Foreign Depositors Is Don’t Trust The US
• US dollar falls from five-week high as data, debt ceiling weigh
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield advances for third straight day amid hopes for debt-ceiling deal

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 9 points or 0.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.35%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $2,017 down $4.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.74,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.464% up 0.067 points,
• USD Index $102.69 up $0.64,
• Bitcoin $26,476 down $366,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -17 to 731 Canada +1 to 94

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment tumbled 9% to 57.7 amid renewed concerns about the trajectory of the economy, erasing over half of the gains achieved after the all-time historic low from last June. While current incoming macroeconomic data show no sign of recession, consumers’ worries about the economy escalated in May alongside the proliferation of negative news about the economy, including the debt crisis standoff.

Well, there is no inflation in the export and import of goods and services. In April 2023, prices for U.S. imports declined 4.8% year-over-year. The price index for U.S. exports declined 5.9% year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil, Gas Drilling Activity In U.S. Sees Largest Single-Week Drop Since Mid-2020
• European Natural Gas Prices Are Set For A Sixth Consecutive Weekly Loss
• A Plethora Of Bearish Factors Push Oil Prices Down
• Shell Suspends Production At The World’s Largest Floating LNG Facility
• Tesla To Recall Over 1.1 Million EVs In China
• S&P 500 closes lower, notches a second week of losses, following disappointing consumer sentiment data: Live updates
• Bitcoin dips below $27,000 and PitchBook releases Q1 crypto report on VC investments: CNBC Crypto World
• The S&P Is Up 8% In 2023; Without AI It Would Be Down 2%, Below 3,800
• Market Snapshot: Dow on track to book 5th straight day of losses, as poor consumer sentiment report reignites recession fears

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 222 points or 0.66%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.18%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.17%,
• Gold $2,020 down $16.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $1.12,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.319% down 0.046 points,
• USD Index $102.07 up $0.6,
• Bitcoin $26,862 down $849,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand on an unadjusted basis declined to 2.3% for the 12 months ended in April. This pricing index. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a measure of the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output. It measures inflation at the wholesale level. The PPI is a broad measure of inflation, and it is used by economists and policymakers to track the pace of inflation and to make decisions about monetary policy. This index is saying that the goods-producing and wholesale sectors have gotten inflation under control.

The initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average for the week ending May 6 was 245,250, an increase of 6,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 239,250. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021, when it was 249,250. An increase in the initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average can be a sign that the labor market is weakening.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Growing Importance Of Robots In The Oil And Gas Industry
• OPEC: World Oil Demand To Rise By 2.33 Million Bpd In 2023
• Shale Steals The Show As Oil & Gas Spending Surges
• Canadian Operators Restart Oil And Gas Production As Wildfires Subside
• PacWest shares tumble 20% after regional bank says deposits fell 9.5% last week
• Dow closes more than 200 points lower for fourth straight day of losses, dragged down by Disney: Live updates
• Washington is at an impasse on the debt ceiling. Here’s what that might mean for your portfolio
• Alphabet trading at highest since August as Wall Street cheers Google’s A.I. plans
• Market Extra: Here’s where investors may turn to ‘hide’ as U.S. debt-ceiling deadline looms based on 2011 market reaction

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 31 points or 0.09%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.04%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.45%,
• Gold $2,037 down $5.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.99,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.437% down 0.085 points,
• USD Index $101.44 down $0.017,
• Bitcoin $27,683 down $53,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

I have been very pessimistic about the ability of monetary policy to beat inflation – as fiscal policy which is controlled by Congress is spending money like a drunken sailor. For monetary policy to work alone, the Fed must tighten until a recession occurs. Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows that little headway has been achieved in the first four months of 2023. The Consumer Price Index for all urban consumers increased 0.4 percent in April 2023, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all-items index increased 4.9 percent before seasonal adjustment. The increase in the all-items index in April primarily reflected broad increases in the prices of shelter, food, and energy. The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.4 percent in April.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Inflation Slips Below 5% But Still Higher Than Fed’s Target
• WTI Crude Sheds 2% As Global Demand Concerns Weigh
• Wind Generates More Power Than Gas In The UK For 3 Straight Months
• Pakistan Wants To Pay In Chinese Yuan For Russia’s Crude Oil
• Here’s everything Google just announced: A $1,799 folding phone, A.I. in Search and more
• Nasdaq closes 1% higher Wednesday after inflation data is cooler than anticipated: Live updates
• Here’s why sodium-ion batteries are shaping up to be a big technology breakthrough
• Market Extra: Wall Street cheers latest inflation report, but some say it could spell trouble for stocks down the road
• Grocery prices are rising more slowly, but food insecurity is surging among low-income Americans

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 57 points or 0.17%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.63%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.46%,
• Gold $2042 up $8.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.33,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.528% down 0.009 points,
• USD index $101.64 up $0.26,
• Bitcoin $27,722 up $46

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) released its Small Business Optimism Index for April 2023 on May 9, 2023. The index fell 1.1 points to 89.0, the lowest level since January 2013. This marks the 16th consecutive month that the index has been below the 49-year average of 98. The decline in the index was driven by a number of factors, including:

• Labor quality: The top business problem reported by small business owners was labor quality, with 45% of owners reporting job openings that they could not fill. This is up from 43% in March.
• Inflation: Inflation was the second top business problem, with 24% of owners reporting that inflation was their single most important business problem. This is down from 28% in March.
• Economic outlook: Small business owners are increasingly pessimistic about the near-term economic outlook. The share of owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months fell two points to a net negative 49%. This is the lowest level since April 2020, at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran Ramps Up Trade With BRICS Nations
• TotalEnergies Set To Start Drilling In Lebanon Later This Year
• The U.S. Needs To Double The Size Of Its Energy Grid
• Australia Looks To Become World’s Leading Green Hydrogen Producer
• Supertanker Rates Crash 75% After OPEC+ Cuts Oil Supply To Markets
• Jury says Trump must pay E. Jean Carroll $5 million for sexual abuse and defamation
• Fed’s John Williams says rates could be increased if inflation doesn’t come down

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 56 points or 0.17%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.18%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.05%,
• Gold $2028 up $3.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $1.49,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.519% up 0.074 points,
• USD index $101.41 up $0.19,
• Bitcoin $27,355 down $1,115

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Sales of merchant wholesalers in March 2023 decreased by 2.9% from March 2022. If one inflation adjusts, the decline was 5.9%. The inventory-to-sales ratio (which requires no inflation adjustment) worsened to 1.40 indicating a slowing economy.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Gasoline Prices Dip Again
• Oil Gains Nearly 2% After ‘Overblown’ Selloff
• Central Banks All Over The World Are Scrambling To Buy Gold
• Warren Buffett Sees Uncertainty In The EV Market
• NY Fed Finds Inflation Expectations Mixed, As Spending Growth Outlook Tumbles To Two Year Low
• Biden proposes cash compensation from airlines for flight cancellations or major delays
• Treasury yields extend advance after Fed survey shows banks reported tighter lending standards, inflation data looms

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 547 points or 1.6%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.25%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.85%,
• Gold $2027 down $29.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $2.80,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.431% up 0.079 points,
• USD index $101.28 down $0.12,
• Bitcoin $29,510 up $653

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 253,000 in April, and the unemployment rate insignificantly declined by 0.1% to 3.4%. The job gains were widespread, with notable increases in professional and business services, health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. The household survey showed employment gains of 139,000 versus the establishment headline number of 253,000. The household survey lowered the civilian workforce by 43,000. A warning sign in the data was the decline in temporary help services employment of 23,800 -this is normally a sign the economy is slowing. Let us just say that the headline numbers 253,000 and 3.4% appear good but this pundit cannot see how good employment can help in the fight against inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil And Gas Drilling Activity In The U.S. Slows
• Is Russia Really Cutting Oil Production?
• India To Remain Heavily Reliant On Coal
• Russia Reports A Second Drone Attack On Its Ilsky Oil Refinery
• Used vehicle prices fell last month for the first time in 2023
• Crypto prices rise, and Coinbase shares soar after Q1 earnings beat expectations
• “Do Not Drive” Warning: NHTSA Recalls 90,000 BMWs Over Exploding Killer Airbags

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 287 points or 0.86%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.49%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.72%,
• Gold $2,058 up $20.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $0.11,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.366% down 0.037 points,
• EUR/USD $1.101 up $0.005,
• Bitcoin $28,871 up $512,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its report on productivity and costs for the first quarter of 2023 showing that productivity decreased 0.9% from one year ago. Unit labor costs, which measure the cost of labor per unit of output, increased 5.8% from one year ago. It is hard to understand how productivity could be declining – and usually is a sign that orders are slowing (and usually associated with recessions).

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment insurance claims for the week ending April 29, 2023 was 242,000. The 4-week moving average was 239,250, an increase of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 236,000 to 235,750. The increase in the 4-week moving average suggests that the labor market is slowing down. However, it is important to keep in mind that the labor market is still very strong. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, and businesses are still hiring at a rapid pace.

The U.S. international trade deficit in goods and services narrowed to $64.2 billion in March 2023. Exports of goods increased to $256.2 billion, while imports of goods decreased to $320.4 billion.The narrowing of the trade deficit in March 2023 was due to a number of factors, including:

• A decline in imports of oil and other petroleum products.
• An increase in exports of agricultural products.
• An increase in exports of transportation equipment.
• A decrease in imports of consumer goods.

Small business owners continue to struggle to find workers, with 45% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reporting job openings they could not fill in the current period. The share of owners with unfilled job openings exceeds the 49-year historical average of 23%. Of those hiring or trying to hire, 92% of owners reported few or no qualified applications for the positions they were trying to fill. “The labor market continues to be a big challenge for small business owners,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “More owners are raising compensation to compete, but labor quality remains a serious problem for owners.” Overall, 60% of owners reported hiring or trying to hire in April. Twenty-nine percent of owners reported few qualified applicants for their open positions and 26% reported none.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What New York’s Ban On Natural Gas Stoves And Heaters Means For The Country
• Turkey Makes Huge 1-Billion-Barrel Oil Discovery
• Saudi Arabia Cuts Price Of Oil To Asia
• China’s Economic Concerns Add To Oil Market Uncertainty
• Regional bank stocks continue to slide on Thursday with PacWest leading the way down 54%
• Stocks close lower for a fourth day on renewed bank worries, Dow goes negative for 2023: Live updates
• Crypto has ‘lost its shine’ for institutional investors, says Northern Trust executive
• AMD jumps 9% on report Microsoft is collaborating on A.I. chip push
• Trump Dominates GOP Field In Early Endorsements—Leads DeSantis By 72–5
• In One Chart: Fed ‘policy mistake’? Why a tumbling 2-year Treasury yield is spooking investors

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 270 points or 0.80%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.46%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.70%,
• Gold $2,037 up $13.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $3.49,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.352% down 0.087 points,
• EUR/USD $1.105 up $0.005,
• Bitcoin $28,351 down $384,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The ADP National Employment Report for April 2023 showed that private payrolls increased by 296,000 (blue line on the graph below), much higher than expected. This was the largest gain since July 2022. The services sector added 229,000 jobs, led by leisure/hospitality (154,000), education/health services (69,000), and trade/transportation/utilities (32,000). Meanwhile, the goods-producing industry added 67,000 jobs due to construction (53,000) and mining (52,000) while manufacturing shed 38,000 jobs. Medium establishments created 122,000 jobs, small-sized companies 121,000 jobs only large firms 47,000 jobs. Job changers in particular saw a dramatic decline in pay growth to 13.2%, the slowest pace of growth since November 2021, from 14.2%. For job stayers, pay growth eased to 6.7% from 6.9%. The report also showed that average hourly earnings for private employees rose 5.4% from a year ago, down from 5.5% in March. The deceleration in wage growth is a sign that labor market tightness is easing.

The S&P Global US Services PMI for April 2023 came in at 53.6, up from 52.6 in March. This was the fastest pace of expansion in the country’s service sector since April 2022. The increase in the S&P Global US Services PMI suggests that the services sector is growing at a faster pace.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on May 3-4, 2023, and decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 5.00 to 5.25 percent. The FOMC’s decision to raise interest rates was in response to high inflation which is not moderating quickly. There were few word changes in the meeting statement so there are no clues on how many more rate increases are projected. For a commentary on Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike – [click here].

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• TotalEnergies To Launch $27 Billion Energy Project In Iraq This Month
• Rare Earth Metals See Prices Plunge
• Oil Prices Crash As Demand Fears Mount
• Iran Seizes Second Oil Tanker In Arabian Gulf
• Fed recap: Here are Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike
• Dow closes more than 250 points lower Wednesday after Fed hikes rates for a 10th time: Live updates
• The market is looking for the next ‘domino’ to fall, keeping banks under pressure
• Private payrolls surged by 296,000 in April, much higher than expected, ADP says
• Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Attempt To Explain If The Pause Is Hawkish Or Dovish
• Fed’s Powell says U.S. banking system is ‘sound and resilient’ after First Republic failure

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.