markets

• The Dow closed up 440 points or 0.99%,
• Nasdaq closed up 51 points or 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed up 18 points or 0.30%,
• Gold $2,629 down $84.30 or 3.12%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $2.17 or 3.05%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.265 down 0.147 points or 3.288%,
• USD index $106.88 down $0.67 or 0.63%,
• Bitcoin $94,959 down $1,700 or 1.79%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, driven by optimism over President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary. This announcement boosted investor sentiment, leading to significant gains across major indices: Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a new record high. Russell 2000 surged over 2%, reaching a record high, as small-cap stocks rallied strongly. The market’s positive reaction was partly due to the perception that Bessent might moderate fiscal policies, which helped ease concerns about inflationary pressures. Additionally, investors are looking forward to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, set for release on Wednesday. Bitcoin was attempting to reach the $100,000 mark but fell back below $95,000.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.24 in October 2024 from –0.21 in September. This is my favorite coincident indicator although like all indicators – at times, it is wrong in trend and value. And the 85 individual indicators it monitors will be revised for decades. That is why the CFNAI looks like it parallels GDP – but in real time it missed the start of the Great Recession. Consider this a tea leaf to be read in conjunction with other tea leaves.  According to the Chicago Fed: “a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. Conversely, following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20.” Bottom line – there is little change in October which means the economy is not strong.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey was flat in November 2024 falling to a -0.9 level after rising to 14.6 last month. The new orders index pushed further negative to -11.9, indicating continued declines in demand. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes slipped back into negative territory, coming in at -4.8 and -5.9, respectively. Not a question in my mind that the manufacturing recession continues.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia’s Uranium Gambit: A Wake-Up Call for U.S. Energy Independence
• Oil for Troops: Russia’s Barter System with North Korea Exposed
• Oil Prices Fall On Possible Mid-East Peace Deal
• UK Slaps Largest Sanctions Package Yet on Russia’s Shadow Tanker Fleet
• IMF’s Proposed Carbon Restrictions Could Have Major Economic Repercussions
• U.S. stock and bond markets love Trump’s pick of Bessent for Treasury — here’s why
• Dow jumps 400 points to new record close, Russell 2000 hits all-time high as investors cheer Trump’s Treasury pick
• Warren Buffett speaks out against creating family wealth dynasties, gives away another $1.1 billion
• MicroStrategy acquires 55,500 more bitcoin amid stock volatility: CNBC Crypto World
• Arabica Futs “Bull Run” Surges To 13-Year High Amid Panic About Brazilian Stockpiles
• Gold tumbles 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, US Treasury pick
• Long-term Treasury bonds log biggest rally in nearly 4 months after Trump picks Bessent

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 426 points or 0.97%,
• Nasdaq closed up 31 points or 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed up 21 points or 0.35%,
• Gold $2,708 up $33.10 or 1.23%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.05 or 1.50%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.416 down 0.016 points or 0.361%,
• USD index $107.53 up $0.56 or 0.52%,
• Bitcoin $99,411 up $1,402 or 1.41%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 99,789)
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 583 Canada +1 to 201
  U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 583 with oil rigs up 1 to 479, gas rigs down 2 to 99 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 5.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The U.S. stock markets closed near its session highs on Friday, with the major indices showing positive momentum. The major indices closed the week with gains exceeding 1%, despite a sluggish start following the post-election rally. Market participants re-calibrated after Nvidia’s earnings, which raised questions about AI’s continued impact on stock prices. For the week, Tesla shares rose almost 4%, while Nvidia experienced a more than 3% dip. Wall Street continues to anticipate President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet selections, particularly the Treasury secretary position, which could significantly impact market dynamics. Bitcoin maintained its upward trajectory, approaching the $100,000 milestone. The cryptocurrency briefly surpassed $99,500 early Friday, buoyed by expectations of favorable crypto regulations under the incoming Trump administration. Finally, the market awaits a shortened trading week due to Thanksgiving with oil prices increasing amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran Escalates Nuclear Tensions with Advanced Centrifuge Installation
• U.S. Drilling Activity Slips Further As Market Volatility Remains
• Texas Pacific Land Replaces Marathon Oil in S&P 500 After ConocoPhillips Deal
• Geopolitical Risk and Supply Outages Underpin Oil Prices
• Is the Russia-Ukraine War Really Escalating?
• ‘I have no money’: Thousands of Americans see their savings vanish in Synapse fintech crisis
• Dow rises more than 400 points for record close, Wall Street posts weekly gain: Live updates
• The case for altcoins and memes as bitcoin, now approaching $100,000, faces a potential correction
• Bitcoin tests $100,000 heading into the weekend: CNBC Crypto World
• Egg Prices Surge Again As Grocers Face Shortages Amid Bird Flu Outbreak
• 2-year Treasury yield has 8th straight week of gains on improved U.S. outlook
• U.S. oil prices score a more than 6% weekly gain on supply risks tied to the Russia-Ukraine war

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 462 points or 1.06%,
• Nasdaq closed up 6 points or 0.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 32 points or 0.53%,
• Gold $2,674 up $22.50 or 0.85%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.44 or 2.09%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.420 up 0.014 points or 0.318%,
• USD index $107.02 up $0.34 or 0.32%,
• Bitcoin $98,000 up $1,058 or 1.08%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 98,903)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks experienced volatility on Thursday as investors reacted to NVIDIA’s earnings and Alphabet’s stock decline. NVIDIA reported strong earnings but forecasted slower revenue growth due to supply chain issues affecting its new Blackwell chip. Despite this, some analysts believe the revenue boost is merely delayed, given NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI chip-making. Nvidia’s shares closed up less than 1%. Alphabet’s stock tumbled after the Department of Justice sought to force Google to sell its Chrome browser. In other market news, Investors favored Utilities, Industrials, and Financials sectors while moving away from Big Tech. Bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high near $99,000, approaching the $100,000 milestone. MicroStrategy shares fell over 17% after Citron Research announced a short position, despite Bitcoin’s record highs.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

CoreLogic® released its latest Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) annual U.S. rent growth registered a 2% increase in September 2024, continuing a slowing trend that began in early 2024 but is well below the average annual rent growth of 3.5% that occurred in the decade before the pandemic. CoreLogic principal economist Molly Boesel’s view:

Single-family annual rent growth slowed in September to the lowest rate in over four years, and monthly rent growth posted a second month of below-seasonal trend growth, making it clear that single-family rent growth is decelerating. While about one-third of metros showed stronger rent growth than in the previous year, more metros showed decreases in rents than in the prior report. While a slowing in rents will be welcome news to renters, increases since 2020 are still at 32%.

The Philly Fed November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey’s indicator for current general activity turned negative, while the indexes for new orders and shipments declined but remained positive. The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 10.3 to -5.5, its second negative reading since January (see Chart below). The manufacturing sector remains in a recession in the US.

Existing-home sales was up 2.9% from one year ago – which is the first year-over-year increase in more than three years. The median existing-home sales price ascended 4.0% from October 2023 to $407,200. The inventory of unsold existing homes is now 4.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. The folks at the National Association of Realtors thinks this is a sign of growing housing demand. I think we need to wait a few months before believing this.

The Kansas City Manufacturing Survey shows the month-over-month composite index was -2 in November 2024, up from -4 in October and -8 in September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The manufacturing sector remains in a recession in the US.

In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 217,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 221,000 to 221,500. The current data is showing an accelerating economy.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.4% in October 2024 to 99.5 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in September (revised up from a 0.5% decline).  You all know the story of the boy who cried wolf. Well The Conference Board has been saying the economy is going to fall into the toilet for the last 2 years – and this only suggests that the underlying methodology in the LEI is not representative of the current economy.  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board opinion:

The largest negative contributor to the LEI’s decline came from manufacturer new orders, which remained weak in 11 out of 14 industries. In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly reflecting the impact of hurricanes in the Southeast US. Additionally, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the LEI. Apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Solar Dominance Fuels Asia’s Green Energy Shift
• Kenya Cancels Adani Energy, Airport Deals Amid U.S. Indictment
• Exxon Mobil To Launch Offshore Cyprus Gas Drilling in 2025
• Russia’s Gas Exports via Ukraine Remain Stable Despite OMV Dispute
• Lower Oil Prices Boost China’s Crude Imports in November
• U.S. LNG Exports to Europe Set to Surge as European Gas Prices Soar
• Dow closes more than 450 points higher as investors snap up stocks tied to the economy: Live updates
• Alphabet shares slide 6% following DOJ push for Google to divest Chrome
• Snowflake rockets 32%, its best day ever, after earnings beat
• Trump and Fed Chair Powell could be set on a collision course over interest rates
• US Bitcoin ETF Assets Break Above $100 Billion
• Gary Gensler to step down as SEC chair, in a move that has crypto bulls ‘glad’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 140 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed down 21 points or 0.11%,
• S&P 500 closed up 13 points or 0.00%,
• Gold $2,651 up $20.20 or 0.77%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.44 or 0.63%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.416 up 0.037 points or 0.845%,
• USD index $106.69 up $0.48 or 0.45%,
• Bitcoin $94,165 up $1,610 or 1.71%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 94,862)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The NASDAQ experienced a downturn on Wednesday, with other major indices showing mixed performance. Investors eagerly await Nvidia’s earnings report, which is seen as a critical test for the artificial intelligence sector. Key expectations include projected revenue of $33-34.3 billion (81-82% increase year-over-year). Nvidia is currently the world’s most valuable company, with a market capitalization of $3.61 trillion. The stock has surged 200% this year. The company represents approximately 7% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. The European Central Bank has warned about potential bubbles in AI stocks. In other market news, Target’s stock plummeted over 21% after missing quarterly profit expectations and Bitcoin reached a new record near $94,500.

trading above $2,600 per ounce.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In October 2024, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach achieved record cargo volumes. Loaded imports rose 29% while exports grew by 12%. This surge is attributed to importers diverting shipments to Southern California amid labor disputes at other major ports. These ports handle about 40% of all containerized TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) in the country and their early data release gives us an early window into US trade balances. You will notice that imports continue on an upward trend line whilst exports remain on a downward trend line.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Fed Rate Cuts Ignite Construction Boom
• Big Oil Pours Billions into Biofuel Production to Meet Decarbonization Goals
• Egypt Seeking Long-Term LNG Deals With U.S. Companies
• Oil Falls After EIA Confirms Small Crude Inventory Build
• Resource Wars: China and America Battle for Antimony as Prices Surge 200%
• Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
• Comcast to spin off cable networks as subscribers flee the bundle
• Delta expects higher profits thanks to high-end travel and ‘resilient economy’
• Social Security beneficiaries to soon receive notices revealing the size of their 2025 benefit checks
• Mike Johnson Bans Transgenders From House Bathrooms After 1st Trans Lawmaker Elected
• Bitcoin sits at record high — and it’s less volatile. How can that be? Here’s the answer.
• How Taylor Swift and Beyoncé’s legions of fans could fuel another meme-stock ‘frenzy’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 120 points or 0.28%,
• Nasdaq closed up 196 points or 1.04%,
• S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.40%,
• Gold $2,638 up $23.10 or 0.88%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.37 or 0.53%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.394 down 0.020 points or 0.453%,
• USD index $106.19 down $0.08 or 0.08%,
• Bitcoin $92,760 up $0,967 or 1.05%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 92,911)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The major indexes closed mixed as Wall Street largely shrugged off concerns about potential nuclear escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The NASDAQ Composite was the standout performer with Nvidia playing a key role in boosting the NASDAQ, with its stock climbing nearly 5% following bullish analyst notes ahead of its earnings report on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, markets reacted to geopolitical tensions after Russia updated its nuclear doctrine. This led to initial gains in safe-haven assets like US bonds and gold. Bitcoin prices reached a new record above $93,500 per token. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling about 4 basis points. Gold prices increased nearly 1%, trading above $2,600 per ounce.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2024 were 7.7% below October 2023. Privately-owned housing starts is 4.0% below October 2023. Privately-owned housing completions 16.8% above October 2023. The number of finished but unsold new homes is at its highest level since 2009, when the market was still recovering from the global financial crisis. In the second graph below, the blue line is units under construction showing a decline in homes under construction. So it is important to reduce the amount of houses being constructed including those being permitted and starting construction – and in the second graph below you can see this happening.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Trump Administration to Fast-Track Self-Driving Car Regulations
• Drill Baby Drill Returns as G20 Drops Fossil Fuel Phase-Out from Final Draft
• Oil Prices Level Out Amid Production Outages and Russia/Ukraine Escalations
• Escalation in Ukraine War Brings Back Geopolitical Risk in Oil
• Europe’s Largest Oilfield Resumes Production After Power Outage
• Nasdaq jumps 1% as Wall Street looks past Russia-Ukraine tensions, Nvidia shares surge: Live updates
• Nvidia earnings are more important to the market than the Fed and jobs data, according to options market
• Bitcoin rises to new record above $94,000: CNBC Crypto World
• Super Micro shares soar 31% after company names new auditor to help keep Nasdaq listing
• Netanyahu Signals Rejection Of Lebanon Truce: ‘Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah’
• Here’s what bond and gold traders are signaling about Russia’s nuclear shift
• Treasury yields end at lowest in over a week after Putin signs new nuclear doctrine

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 55 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 112 points or 0.60%,
• S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.39%,
• Gold $2,614 up $43.80 or 1.71%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $2.03 or 3.03%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.422 down 0.004 points or 0.090%,
• USD index $106.23 down $0.46 or 0.43%,
• Bitcoin $91,835 up $2,241 or 2.44%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Major indices closed mixed today. Tesla shares jumped over 5% following a Bloomberg report suggesting a potential easing of self-driving vehicle rules under the Trump administration. The stock continues its post-election surge, driven by expectations of reduced regulations. The tech sector showed signs of recovery. Energy stocks rose as oil prices increased. Investors are anticipating NVIDIA’s earnings report gauging the strength of the AI trade. Trump Media & Technology Group gained 16% on reports of a potential Bakkt acquisition. Bitcoin rebounded, trading above $91,000. Federal Reserve signals may impact expectations for rate cuts. The market remains volatile, with tech stocks and post-election rally dynamics playing a significant role in trading sentiment.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The October 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Credit Access Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals credit demand remained relatively stable in 2024, but rejection rates increased across various types of credit: Rejection rates rose for credit cards, mortgages, auto loans, credit card limit extensions, and mortgage refinances. Auto loan and mortgage refinance rejection rates reached new highs since the survey began in 2013. Lender-initiated account closures increased to a new series high. Looking ahead, consumers anticipate a lower likelihood of applying for credit overall in the next 12 months with a decreased probability of applying for new credit cards or mortgages. The bottom line is a lower percentage of people are applying and even a larger amount of people are being rejected for a loan.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Imports Surge: Cars, Oil, and Tech Lead the Charge
• U.S. Approves Long-Range Missile Strikes Inside Russia
• From Beijing to Riyadh: Trump’s Blueprint for U.S. Dominance
• U.S. Electricity Exports to Canada Jump
• US Gasoline Prices Set To Fall Below $3 per Gallon Ahead of Thanksgiving
• Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Exports Hit a 3-Month High in September
• War Premium Returns to Oil Market After Biden’s Ukraine Decision
• Stanley Druckenmiller piled into regional banks and made this health-care stock his biggest bet
• Budget travel icon Spirit Airlines files for bankruptcy protection after mounting losses
• Tesla stock pops after report Trump wants to relax U.S. self-driving rules
• Dental supply stock surges on RFK’s anti-fluoride stance, activist involvement
• Hamas Guns Down 20 Palestinians After Over 100 Aid Trucks ‘Violently Looted’
• Lenders reject homes with spray foam insulation
• Gold down, Bitcoin up! How Trump’s victory changed financial market dynamics
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at nearly 2-week low amid near-term consolidation
• Oil gains over 3% after U.S. approves Ukraine use of long-range missiles inside Russia

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 306 points or 0.70%,
• Nasdaq closed down 428 points or 2.24%,
• S&P 500 closed down 79 points or 1.32%,
• Gold $2,568 down $4.70 or 0.19%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $1.71 or 2.49%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.441 up 0.021 points or 0.475%,
• USD index $106.90 up $0.42 or 0.39%,
• Bitcoin $91,327 up $1,624 or 4.58%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 93,383)
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 584 Canada -7 to 200
  U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 584 with oil rigs down 1 to 478, gas rigs down 1 to 101 and miscellaneous rigs up 1 to 5.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks experienced significant declines on Friday, leading to steep weekly losses as investors processed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s indication that the central bank is not rushing to implement interest rate cuts. The major indexes all fell sharply. Powell’s hawkish comments dampened market sentiment, erasing much of the initial optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s policy agenda. The S&P 500 has already retraced about one-third of its post-election gains. For the week the S&P 500 lost over 2%, the Dow shed 1.2%, and the Nasdaq logged a 3.2% decline. Traders are now reassessing expectations for rate cuts. The probability of a December rate cut has fallen to 62%, down from 72% the previous day. The January rate cut odds decreased to 74% from 81%. Adding to the hawkish tone, retail sales data released Friday showed continued strength in consumer spending. Investors are also closely watching Trump’s transition plans, including potential cabinet appointments that could impact certain sectors.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The latest Survey of Professional Forecasters conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia indicates an improved near-term outlook for the U.S. economy compared to three months ago. The economy is predicted to expand at an annual rate of 2.2% in Q4 2024 and 1.9% in Q1 2025, up from previous estimates of 1.7% for both quarters. Real GDP growth is expected to be 2.7% in 2024 and 2.2% in 2025 on an annual-average basis. The unemployment rate forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous survey. Projections show the unemployment rate increasing from 4.0% in 2024 to 4.3% in 2025, then decreasing to 4.1% in 2027. Job gains are expected to continue at a steady pace. Forecasters project monthly job gains of 208,400 in 2024 and 134,100 in 2025. These projections suggest a more optimistic view of economic growth in the near term, with stable labor market conditions expected to persist.

	Real GDP (%)		Unemployment Rate (%)		Payrolls (000s/month)
	Previous	New	Previous	New	Previous	New
Quarterly data:
2024:Q4	1.7	2.2	4.3	4.2	125.4	138.8
2025:Q1	1.7	1.9	4.3	4.2	128.7	123.7
2025:Q2	1.8	1.8	4.3	4.3	116.2	117.2
2025:Q3	2.2	2.2	4.3	4.2	145.8	114.2
2025:Q4	N.A.	2.0	N.A.	4.3	N.A.	128.2
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):
2024	2.6	2.7	4.1	4.0	210.1	208.4
2025	1.9	2.2	4.3	4.3	130.0	134.1
2026	2.3	2.1	4.2	4.2	N.A.	N.A.
2027	2.0	2.1	4.2	4.1	N.A.	N.A.

Advance estimates of unadjusted U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2024 were up 4.6% from October 2023 (3.3% inflation adjusted). This was a broad based increase across all sectors of retail sales.

Industrial production (IP) decreased 0.3% year-over-year in October 2024. According to the Federal Reserve, the Boeing strike slowed IP growth by an estimated 0.3 percentage point in September and 0.2 percentage point in October – whilst Hurricane Milton and the lingering effects of Hurricane Helene together reduced October IP growth 0.1 percentage point. For the components of IP, note that growth in manufacturing was down 0.3% year-over-year, mining was down 1.5% year-over-year, and utility growth was up 1.5% year-over-year.  Capacity utilization moved down to 77.1 percent in October, a rate that is 2.6 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. My position remains that manufacturing is in a recession.

Imported prices rose to 0.8% in October 2024 (2.3% excluding fuels). Export prices contracted 0.1%. Notice that the import prices less fuel rate of increase has been steadily growing (black line on the graph below) – and that is now growing into a major source of inflation into the economy. Almost 30% of consumer goods are imported.

The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey‘s headline general business conditions index shot up forty-three points to 31.2, its highest reading in nearly three years. New orders and shipments rose substantially. Delivery times were slightly longer, while supply availability was somewhat lower. Remember this is a survey, and I will not conceded that manufacturing has magically jumped to the highest level in three years from a negative number one month ago. Really do not like surveys.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Why Musk Supports Trump’s Plan to Axe EV Tax Credits
• U.S. Rig Count Sees Small Drop
• Space Junk: The Unseen Crisis Threatening Earth’s Ecosystems
• Bearish Sentiment Is Dominating Oil Markets
• Carbon Credit Dispute Overshadows Early Progress at COP29
• Libya’s Fragile Peace Is Under Threat Again
• The Strong Dollar Is Back and Weighing on Oil Prices
• Dow closes 300 points lower Friday as rate worries hinder postelection rally: Live updates
• Palantir jumps 9% to a record after announcing move to Nasdaq
• Super Micro faces deadline to keep Nasdaq listing after 85% plunge in stock
• Processed food stocks fall as investors brace for increased scrutiny under Trump, RFK Jr.
• Bitcoin rises over 16% in a week on hopes of crypto-friendly U.S. policy: CNBC Crypto World
• Consumers Are Drowning In Debt As Hordes Of Businesses Fail All Over The US
• Investors are bracing for higher-for-even-longer interest rates
• Treasury yields finish mixed as spike in rates sparks buying demand

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 207 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed down 123 points or 0.64%,
• S&P 500 closed down 36 points or 0.60%,
• Gold $2,573 down $13.10 or 0.52%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $0.13 or 0.19%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.445 down 0.006 points or 0.135%,
• USD index $106.90 up $0.42 or 0.39%,
• Bitcoin $87,800 down $1,624 or 1.85%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The US stock market experienced a downturn as the post-election rally lost momentum. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments were a primary driver of market sentiment. He emphasized that the central bank is not in a “hurry” to lower interest rates and the US economy remains strong. The Fed will be “watching carefully” to ensure inflation stays within an acceptable range. Republican party maintained its House majority, creating a “trifecta” of political control that could facilitate President-elect Trump’s economic agenda. This agenda caused Tesla to drop over 5% after reports suggested eliminating the $7,500 EV tax credit. In addition, Moderna and Novavax declined after reports of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. potentially leading the Department of Health and Human Service.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Following the growth of the Consumer Price Index yesterday, the Producer Price Index (PPI) grew from 1.9% year-over-year to 2.4% in October 2024. The services portion of the PPI grew from 3.3% to 3.5% year-over-year and the goods portion of the PPI grew from -1.2% to 0.2% year-over-year. The PPI less food and energy grew from 3.0% to 3.1% year-over-year. Historically, I have defended the various inflation indices but their understatement of inflation is becoming persistent. I believed in 2024, it was a political decision to understate inflation but for now I will go with the historical rationale:

Several factors contribute to the possibility that official inflation statistics understate true inflation:

1. Methodological changes: The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has made significant changes to CPI calculation methods over the years, which some critics argue have led to lower reported inflation rates 1 3.
2. Substitution bias: The CPI’s fixed basket approach may not fully account for consumers substituting between goods when prices change, potentially understating inflation 3.
3. Quality adjustments: The use of “hedonic adjustments” to account for product improvements may artificially lower reported inflation 4.
4. Exclusion of asset prices: The CPI does not include asset inflation, such as rising stock or real estate prices, which can significantly impact overall cost of living 4.
5. Subjective weighting: The relative importance of items in the CPI basket can be adjusted, potentially hiding sharp price increases in essential goods 4

Evidence of Understatement:

1. Alternative calculations: Some economists, using different methodologies, have estimated significantly higher inflation rates than official figures. For example, in 2006, while the official CPI showed a 2.2% increase, alternative estimates ranged from 5.3% to 8.2% 5.
2. Historical comparisons: Calculations using older CPI formulas suggest that current inflation rates could be nearly double the officially reported figures 2
3. Divergence from personal experience: Many consumers report experiencing higher price increases than official statistics indicate, suggesting a potential disconnect between CPI and real-world inflation 4

If inflation is indeed understated, there could be several significant consequences:

1. Monetary policy: Central banks may make suboptimal decisions regarding interest rates and monetary stimulus based on inaccurate inflation data 4
2. Government spending: Many government payments, such as Social Security, are tied to CPI. Lower reported inflation could result in reduced payments to citizens 5
3. Investment returns: Investors may experience lower real returns than expected if true inflation is higher than reported 5
4. Economic planning: Inaccurate inflation data can make financial planning more difficult for individuals and businesses 4

In the week ending November 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 221,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 227,250. This data shows no signs of an economic slowdown.

In a speech today, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided an overview of the current state of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s monetary policy stance. A summary of his speech: The U.S. economy has shown remarkable resilience and growth: GDP grew by over 3% last year and is expanding at a 2.5% rate this year. Consumer spending remains strong. Business investment has accelerated. The labor market is in solid condition, with unemployment at 4.1%. Significant strides have been made in controlling inflation: Total PCE prices rose 2.3% over the 12 months ending in October. Core PCE prices increased by 2.8%. Inflation is moving closer to the Fed’s 2% goal, though not there yet. The Fed is carefully adjusting its policy stance. We recently lowered the policy interest rate by 1/4 percentage point. We are moving towards a more neutral policy setting. Will assess incoming data, evolving outlook, and balance of risks for future decisions. Not in a hurry to lower rates due to current economic strength. Powell expressed confidence in maintaining economic strength while bringing inflation down to 2%. The Fed remains committed to its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability, aiming to achieve these goals without causing a significant rise in unemployment.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• 3 Critical Challenges in the Transition to Net-Zero
• Trump’s Second Term Could Present Challenges and Opportunities for the Caucasus
• Oil Jumps on Fuel Inventory Draws
• Rubio’s Vision: A Pragmatic Approach to American Foreign Policy
• Germany Warns Import Terminals to Refuse Deliveries of Russian LNG
• Powell says the Fed doesn’t need to be ‘in a hurry’ to reduce interest rates
• Here’s the deflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
• Dow drops 200 points as postelection rally sputters, Fed Chair Powell signals caution on rate cuts: Live updates
• Greenlight’s David Einhorn says the markets are broken and getting worse
• Wholesale prices rose 0.2% in October, in line with expectations
• The House just voted ‘yes’ on a bill that would increase Social Security checks for some pensioners
• 2-year Treasury yield jumps after the close, with Powell patient about rate cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 47 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed down 51 points or 0.26%,
• S&P 500 closed up 11 points or 0.02%,
• Gold $2,581 down $25.10 or 0.96%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $0.05 or 0.01%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.447 up 0.016 points or 0.361%,
• USD index $106.49 up $0.47 or 0.44%,
• Bitcoin $89,652 up $1,345 or 0.15%, (24 Hours) , (New Bitcoin Historic high 93,184)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks closed mixed on Wednesday as investors digested the latest consumer inflation data which some think supports the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut in December (over 80% of traders expecting a reduction according to the CME FedWatch tool). Bitcoin briefly reached a new record high above $93,000 in the cryptocurrency market before retreating slightly. The market’s reaction reflects ongoing considerations about inflation, economic growth, and future Federal Reserve policy decisions. Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed, emphasized that inflation data remains crucial for the central bank’s future decisions.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Gee, what a surprise – in October 2024 the Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) year-over-year growth increased from 2.4% to 2.6%. The CPI-U less food and energy was little changed at 3.3%. As I continue to advise readers – there is significant upward pressures on inflation, and my position is that the Federal Reserve was premature in lowering the federal funds rate.

U.S. household debt balances increased by $147 billion (0.8%) in the third quarter of 2024. The growth was spread across various loan products: Mortgages were up $75 billion, Credit cards up $24 billion, and auto loans up $18 billion. Despite the growth in absolute debt balances, the debt-to-income ratio remains lower than pre-pandemic levels: Current ratio is 82% of disposable personal income. Pre-pandemic ratio (2019) was 86% of disposable personal income.This suggests that debt balances have increased but have not outpaced income growth. Delinquency rates have risen over the past two years, returning to approximately pre-pandemic levels. However, credit card and auto loan delinquencies have exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Here too, I have been reminding readers that inflation adjusted credit growth is well below historical levels. What this tells me is that Americans have become more conservative in their spending habits.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Deepwater Discoveries Set to Reshape Africa’s Energy Landscape
• How War Has Reshaped Ukraine’s Iron Ore Trade
• India’s Adani Group Plans $10B Investment in American Energy
• Russia Considers Lifting Gasoline Export Ban
• Suncor Lifts Dividend as Soaring Output and Refining Drive Strong Profit
• AMD to lay off 4% of workforce, or about 1,000 employees
• Dogecoin soars after Trump taps Elon Musk for department of government efficiency: CNBC Crypto World
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for October 2024 — in one chart
• OPEC+ Faces Double Trouble: China Demand Weakness And Trump’s Policies
• 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end at 4-month highs as investors weigh inflation risks
• As bitcoin trades above $90,000, is now the time to buy?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 382 points or 0.86%,
• Nasdaq closed down 17 points or 0.09%,
• S&P 500 closed down 17 points or 0.29%,
• Gold $2,607 down $10.80 or 0.41%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 up $0.02 or 0.01%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.429 up 0.121 points or 2.809%,
• USD index $105.91 up $0.37 or 0.34%,
• Bitcoin $89,581 up $2,822 or 3.15%, (24 Hours) , (New Bitcoin Historic high 90,016)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The post-election rally in US stocks lost momentum on Tuesday as investors reassessed recent buying and considered the implications of Donald Trump’s potential Cabinet selections. The major stock indices declined. This marked the worst day for both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones since October 31st. Several factors contributed to this pause in the market’s upward trend – Wall Street analysts suggested the post-election surge may be nearing its end, with Bank of America noting investor exposure to US stocks had reached an 11-year high. Policy uncertainty – The market pondered the potential impact of Trump’s likely Cabinet picks, including Marco Rubio as secretary of state, which raised concerns about tougher policies towards China. Inflation worries – There were concerns that Trump’s economic plans could spur inflation. Treasury yields – The 10-year Treasury yield increased by about 12-13 basis points. Some previously strong “Trump trades” also lost momentum with Tesla’s stock turning negative after previous gains. Cryptocurrency-related stocks like Coinbase struggled to maintain their recent increases. Bitcoin, while still trading above $86,000, slowed its pace after nearly reaching $90,000. Investors are now turning their attention to upcoming economic data, particularly Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index report for October, which will be scrutinized for signs of cooling inflation.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by 2.2 points in October to 93.7. This is the 34^th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose seven points to 110, the highest reading recorded. A seasonally adjusted net negative 20% of small business owners reported higher nominal sales in the past three months, the lowest reading since July 2020. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

With the election over, small business owners will begin to feel less uncertain about future business conditions. Although optimism is on the rise on Main Street, small business owners are still facing unprecedented economic adversity. Low sales, unfilled jobs openings, and ongoing inflationary pressures continue to challenge our Main Streets, but owners remain hopeful as they head toward the holiday season.

October 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations shows median one-year-ahead inflation expectations declined by 0.1 percentage point (ppt) to 2.9%, three-year-ahead inflation expectations declined to 2.5 percent, and five-year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 2.8 percent. Labor market expectations improved with households reporting a lower likelihood for higher unemployment, a lower likelihood of job loss, and a higher likelihood of finding a job if they were laid off.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Aethon Eyes $10 Billion Move as Data Demand Grows
• API Presses Trump for Pro-Drill, Pro-LNG Agenda
• Data Center Diplomacy: The New Frontier in AI Geopolitics
• California’s New Fuel Rules Could Raise Gas Prices by $0.50 Per Gallon
• Climate Skeptics See Trump Opportunity to Reverse U.S. Policies
• Demand Concerns Continue to Dominate Oil Markets
• OPEC Oil Production Jumps by 470,000 Bpd as Libyan Output Returns
• Dow falls more than 350 points, retreating from record as postelection rally takes breather: Live updates
• Bitcoin to top $100,000 before year-end, according to bettors on Kalshi
• FAA bans U.S.-Haiti flights for 30 days after Spirit Airlines flight struck by gunfire
• Canada’s Labor Minister ends coast-to-coast port labor turmoil, forcing unions back to work
• Long-Range Ukrainian Drone Strike On Warships In Caspian Sea Worries Kremlin
• 10-year Treasury yield breaks through key resistance levels on way to 5%
• VIX signals stock rally ‘healthy’ for now. Here’s how to use it to spot a bubble.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.