markets

• The Dow closed up 304 points or 0.69%, (Closed at 44,293, New Historic high 44,867)
• Nasdaq closed up 12 points or 0.06%, (Closed at 19,299, New Historic high 19,366)
• S&P 500 closed up 10 points or 0.06%, (Closed at 6,001, New Historic high 6,017)
• Gold $2,630 down $64.80 or 2.40%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $2.16 or 3.07%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.304 down 0.039 points or 0.898%,
• USD index $105.49 up $0.49 or 047%,
• Bitcoin $87,209 up $9,166 or 10.51%, (24 Hours) , (New Bitcoin Historic high 87,401)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The stock market experienced significant gains on Monday, continuing a robust post-election rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 44,000 for the first time, while the S&P 500 closed surpassing the 6,000 mark. Both indexes had just recorded their best week of the year, driven by optimism surrounding lower corporate taxes and deregulation anticipated from President-elect Donald Trump. Bitcoin reached a new high of $86,000, fueled by expectations of a crypto-friendly administration under Trump. Other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin also saw gains. Tesla’s stock surged for the fifth consecutive session, climbing over 8%, reflecting investor confidence in its potential benefits from Trump’s presidency. In contrast, the Nasdaq Composite struggled, closing slightly down due to underperformance from major tech stocks like Nvidia, Apple, and Meta. Small-cap stocks also thrived, with the Russell 2000 index achieving its highest level since November 2021. Market sentiment was bolstered by the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cut and positive consumer sentiment data released last week. However, some analysts express caution regarding the sustainability of this rally as they await upcoming inflation data that could influence future Federal Reserve policy decisions.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases on Veteran’s Day

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Shippers Brace for Impact as Freight Rates Climb
• Venezuela’s Gas Pipeline Explosion Highlights Crumbling Infrastructure
• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Jump Over 10% After Hurricane Rafael Hits
• National Gasoline Prices Fall To 3-Year Low
• Saudi-Iranian Relations Warm as Middle East Braces for Trump’s Return
• Tesla shares pop 6% as postelection rally continues
• Bitcoin tops $87,000 as crypto euphoria over Trump win shows no sign of waning
• GM’s Wall Street vindication is happening as it outperforms its peers in 2024
• Gunfire Hits Spirit Airlines Jet On Final Approach In Haiti, Crew Wounded
• China’s Foreign Direct Investment Set For First Negative Year In History
• ‘I’ve no interest in investing more money in the stock market’: I’m debt-free, retired, and ignoring the ‘Trump bump.’ What should I do with $400,000 in cash?
• U.S. oil benchmark settles below $70 a barrel on China stimulus disappointment

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 260 points or 0.59%, (Closed at 43,989, New Historic high 44,157)
• Nasdaq closed up 17 points or 0.09%, (Closed at 19,287, New Historic high 19,319)
• S&P 500 closed up 22 points or 0.38%, (Closed at 5,973, New Historic high 6,012)
• Gold $2,694 down $11.80 or 0.43%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $1.89 or 2.61%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.304 down 0.039 points or 0.898%,
• USD index $104.35 up $0.43 or 0417%,
• Bitcoin $76,740 up $40 or 0.06%, (24 Hours) , (New Bitcoin Historic high 77,221)
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 585 Canada -6 to 207
  U.S. Rig Count is unchanged from last week at 585 with oil rigs unchanged at 479, gas rigs unchanged at 102 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The S&P 500 briefly hit 6,000 for the first time, capping its best week of the year to close at a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed 44,000 for the first time during the session. The Nasdaq Composite closed near the flatline. The strong weekly performance was driven by optimism following Donald Trump’s White House victory and the Federal Reserve’s latest interest rate cut. Nvidia officially joined the Dow Jones Industrial Average, replacing Intel. Nvidia’s stock rose 2.9% in after-hours trading on the news, while Intel fell 1.8%. Tesla shares soared over 9%, pushing the company’s market capitalization to $1 trillion. Trump Media & Technology Group stock jumped more than 10% after President-elect Trump said he would not sell his shares in the company. The US dollar and Treasury yields gave up some of their post-election gains, tempering the initial “Trump trade” rush. Disappointment over China’s new fiscal stimulus plan put some pressure on Chinese stocks and oil prices. Next week companies providing quarterly results include Live Nation (LYV), Spotify (SPOT), Home Depot (HD) and Hertz (HTZ). On Monday, November 11 the stock market will be open but the bond market closed in observance of Veterans Day.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment results for November 2024:

Heading into the election, consumer sentiment improved for the fourth consecutive month, rising 3.5% to its highest reading in six months. While current conditions were little changed, the expectations index surged across all dimensions, reaching its highest reading since July 2021. Expectations over personal finances climbed 6% in part due to strengthening income prospects, and short-run business conditions soared 9% in November. Long-run business conditions increased to its most favorable reading in nearly four years. Sentiment is now nearly 50% above its June 2022 trough but remains below pre-pandemic readings. Note that interviews for this release concluded on Monday and thus do not capture any reactions to election results.

[Note: This consumer sentiment survey exemplifies why I dislike surveys – for the most part they are not representative of the population or sector the survey purportedly represents. This survey over the last 3 months attributed the rise in consumer sentiment to Kamala Harris winning the election. I hope in the future, this survey can put on political blinders, and re-examines its methodology to have a more representative sample group. As this is a preliminary survey for September – I expect a significant fall in consumer sentiment if changes are not made to its sample grouping.]

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Decline As Hurricane Risk Fades, China Demand Weakens
• U.S. Drilling Activity Still Unmoved Amid Market Uncertainty
• Oil Prices Remain Rangebound Despite Dramatic Week
• Trump Set to Renew Maximum Pressure Policy on Iran
• Dow tops 44,000 for first time, S&P 500 closes at record high to cap election week rally: Live updates
• Tesla hits $1 trillion market cap as stock rallies after Trump win
• Powell and the Fed won’t be able to avoid talking about Trump forever
• The 10-year Treasury yield has been rising. Here’s where BlackRock’s Rick Rieder sees an opportunity
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Tesla, Airbnb, Toast, Pinterest and more
• Yields on cash are still ‘well ahead of inflation,’ expert says. Here’s where to put your money now
• The S&P 500 breaks 6,000 and the Dow tops 44,000. Why stocks could keep climbing.
• Oil ends down on the day, up for the week on conflicting supply-demand prospects

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 1 points or 0.00%, (Closed at 43,729, New Historic high 43,823)
• Nasdaq closed up 286 points or 1.51%, (Closed at 19,269, New Historic high 19,302)
• S&P 500 closed up 44 points or 0.74%, (Closed at 5,973, New Historic high 5,984)
• Gold $2,712 up $36.30 or 1.33%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.30 or 0.43%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.332 down 0.094 points or 2.079%,
• USD index $104.35 down $0.74 or 0.07%,
• Bitcoin $76,510 up $390 or 0.51%, (24 Hours) , – New Bitcoin Historic high 76,874.36)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite reached new record highs on Thursday, driven by a tech-led rally. This came as investors processed two major events – Federal Reserve interest rate cut and Donald Trump’s election victory: Trump’s win on Wednesday had already sent stock indices to record levels, with his proposed corporate tax cuts and deregulation fueling economic optimism. Nvidia and Amazon shares reached new all-time highs The Magnificent Seven stocks (Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, Tesla, and Nvidia) outperformed the broader market, with their ETF rising over 8% in the past five days compared to the S&P 500’s 4.69% gain. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed questions about the potential impact of Trump’s election on Fed policy, stating that in the near term, the election would not affect their decisions.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

September 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.4 percent (±0.9 percent)* from the revised September 2023 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.3% from the revised September 2023 level. The September inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.34. The September 2023 ratio was 1.33. Honestly, I am not sure why I consider this a significant release anymore. We need more wholesalers because companies have become only assemblers – and need to outsource more and more components. Combine this with more and more assemblers moving overseas – and this chaos makes understanding WTF is going on close to impossible.

In the week ending November 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 227,250, a decrease of 9,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 236,500 to 237,000. No sign of recession in these numbers.

Nonfarm business productivity is up 2.0% year-over-year with costs up 3.4%. When costs rise faster than productivity, you are becoming less competitive. And honestly, the way productivity is calculated by the BLS is incorrect anyway. It takes a detailed analysis of each persons motion in a company and not a broad brush analysis of hours to produce a product. 

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting concluded today with the expected 0.25 point reduction of the federal funds rate. The meeting statement:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has made progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective but remains somewhat elevated.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point to 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. In considering additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Duke Energy’s Hurricane Restoration Costs Could Hit $2.9 Billion
• 17 Gulf Oil Platforms Evacuated Under Approach of Hurricane Rafael
• Bank of England Cuts Interest Rates
• Weaker U.S. Fracking Drags Halliburton Earnings Below Estimates
• Big Oil CEOs Voice Concern Over Geopolitical Tensions
• Fed meeting recap: Powell ‘feeling good’ about economy, says Trump can’t legally fire him
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close at records and extend postelection rally as Fed cuts rates: Live updates
• Airbnb stock up as revenue jumps
• Rivian significantly misses Wall Street’s third-quarter revenue expectations
• Former Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says Trump’s top priorities will be tax cuts, Iran sanctions and tariffs
• The Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point after election. Here’s what that means for you
• Interest rates cut but Bank hints fewer falls to come
• The bull market is ‘still an infant’: Why Evercore sees the S&P 500 at 6,600 by mid-2025
• Powell sends one crystal clear message to Trump: Firing me is ‘not permitted under the law’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 1,508 points or 3.57%, (Closed at 43,730, New Historic high 43,779)
• Nasdaq closed up 544 points or 2.95%, (Closed at 18,983, New Historic high 19,005)
• S&P 500 closed up 146 points or 2.53%, (Closed at 5,929, New Historic high 5,936)
• Gold $2,669 down $8.10 or 2.94%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.03 or 0.04%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.441 up 0.153 points or 3.568%,
• USD index $105.12 up $1.70 or 1.64%,
• Bitcoin $75,993 up $7,326 or 9.64%, (24 Hours) , – New Bitcoin Historic high 76,355.00

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks surged to record highs on Wednesday as investors reacted to Donald Trump’s victory in the presidential election over Kamala Harris. The decisive outcome dispelled anxieties about a potentially contested election and days of uncertainty. Key highlights: The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped closing at a record high. The S&P 500 rose surpassing the 5,900 level for the first time. The Nasdaq Composite climbed also reaching a new record. The so-called “Trump trade” saw significant gains across various sectors: Financial stocks rallied, with the S&P Regional Banking ETF up over 11%. Tesla shares surged more than 14%, likely due to CEO Elon Musk’s support for Trump during the campaign. Bitcoin hit a record high above $75,000 before settling around $73,800. Bond yields also rose sharply, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing, signaling expectations of higher inflation and interest rates under Trump’s policies. Beyond the presidential race, Republicans gained control of the Senate, though the House of Representatives outcome remains uncertain. Investors are now turning their attention to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, expected on Thursday afternoon.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

There were no releases today as the USA begins recovering from a brutal election cycle. Food for thought from Statista:

You will find more infographics at Statista

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Sanctions Target Central Asian Firms for Aiding Russia’s War Effort
• Trump’s Victory Signals a Shift in Global Power Dynamics
• Rare Earth Prices Soar as Myanmar’s Mining Operations Halt
• EIA Confirms Inventory Builds Across the Board
• Bitcoin, Treasury Yields Jump as Trump Takes White House
• Dow soars 1,500 points to record high in best day since 2022 after Trump election win: Live updates
• The Fed is expected to cut interest rates again Thursday. Here’s everything you need to know
• Trump promised no taxes on Social Security benefits. It’s too soon to plan on that change, experts say
• Mortgage rates surge higher on Trump victory, causing housing stocks to fall
• Yields Slide After Stellar 30Y Auction, But Then Blow Out Again
• Bitcoin at record high above $75,000 is good news for Nifty bulls also. Here’s why
• 30-year bond yield closes with biggest jump since 2022 after Trump wins
• Oil prices end with a modest loss as Trump’s win lifts the dollar

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 427 points or 1.02%,
• Nasdaq closed up 259 points or 1.43%,
• S&P 500 closed up 70 points or 1.23%,
• Gold $2,753 up $6.20 or 0.22%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.65 or 0.09%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.289 down 0.022 points or 0.164%,
• USD index $103.45 down $0.44 or 0.42%,
• Bitcoin $69,358 up $1,949 or 2.81%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks closed higher on Election Day as Americans voted in the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Investors are preparing for potential market volatility, as the election outcome may not be clear for days or weeks if disputed. The dollar retreated further as traders reduced bets on a Trump win. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2 basis points. The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut on Thursday. Boeing shares fell nearly 3% despite workers ending a 7-week strike by voting for a new contract with a 38% pay hike. The S&P 500 is up over 20% year-to-date through October, its best performance in the first 10 months of an election year since at least 1950. Historically, the S&P 500 has risen in 6 of the past 10 election cycles in the month after the election and 8 of 10 cases over the following 3 months. Analysts warn of potential short-term volatility once the election outcome is known, but advise investors to focus on long-term trends.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The trade deficit has grown 35.6% year-over-year driven by falling export growth of 4.5% year-over-year and rising import growth of 8.9%. Capital goods and consumer goods drove the rise in exports. When I was younger, the saying was that the US was manufacturing nothing  – it was not true then but becoming true now. 

In October, the ISM Services PMI registered 56%, 1.1 percentage points higher than September’s figure of 54.9 percent. The reading in October marked the eighth time the composite index has been in expansion territory this year. The Business Activity Index registered 57.2 percent in October, 2.7 percentage points lower than the 59.9 percent recorded in September, indicating a fourth month of expansion after a contraction in June. The New Orders Index decreased to 57.4 percent in October, 2 percentage points lower than September’s figure of 59.4 percent. If I had only one index to look at to understand the economy, it would be this ISM services index even though this is a survey [I dislike most surveys]. It is showing moderate expansion. 

U.S. home price growth continued to cool, slowing to 3.4% year-over-year in September 2024. Compared with the month prior, home prices rebounded to post a very slight uptick (0.02%). Taken together, home price levels have been relatively flat since late summer. Home prices are subject to the laws of supply and demand – and there are a bunch of buyers currently priced out because of high mortgage rates. So if the mortgage rates moderate – home price inflation will increase.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• NATO Flexes Military Muscle with Extensive Drills in Northern Finland
• Australia’s Rare Earth Supply Chain Faces Major Disruptions
• Iran’s Oil Supply to China Most Expensive in Five Years As Loadings Fall
• Foreign Interference Threatens U.S. Election Integrity, Officials Warn
• Dow rallies 400 points, S&P 500 gains 1% as traders await U.S. election results: Live updates
• Coinbase’s big election bet is about to be tested
• Nvidia passes Apple as world’s most valuable company
• Palantir shares jump 23% to record on uplifting guidance
• Boeing machinists end strike after approving labor contract with 38% raises
• Protests Explode In Tel Aviv After Netanyahu Fires Defense Minister Gallant
• How Markets Reacted To Each US Election Since 2000
• Ukraine Announces First Direct Clashes With North Korean Troops
• 10-year Treasury yield ends lower after strong auction as investors await election results

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 258 points or 0.61%,
• Nasdaq closed down 60 points or 0.33%,
• S&P 500 closed down 16 points or 0.28%,
• Gold $2,746 down $2.80 or 0.09%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $2.15 or 3.11%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.299 down 0.064 points or 0.523%,
• USD index $103.91 up $0.37 or 0.36%,
• Bitcoin $67,474 down $1,579 or 2.34%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stock markets declined on Monday as investors braced for two potentially market-moving events – the presidential election on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s policy decision later in the week. The major indexes all slipped: Trading was choppy as markets grappled with uncertainty around the tight presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Recent polls showing Harris gaining ground led to some recalibration of expectations. The dollar experienced its largest drop in a month as traders adjusted their positioning. Treasury yields also retreated, with the 10-year yield falling nearly 10 basis points. In other markets, oil prices jumped nearly 3% after OPEC+ delayed a planned production increase.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

no releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Libyan Oil Output Resumption Significantly Increases OPEC Output
• TotalEnergies: Oil Demand Will Peak After 2030
• Trudeau Government Orders Canadian Oil & Gas Firms To Cut Emissions
• 20 States See Gasoline Prices Fall Below $3 Ahead of Presidential Elections
• Is This The Eye Of The Coming Israeli Storm Of Attacks Directly On Iran?
• South Korea Set to Buy More U.S. Oil and Gas If Trump Becomes President
• Dow closes down more than 200 points ahead of presidential election: Live updates
• Striking Boeing machinists vote on union-backed contract proposal, this time with a warning
• What the stock market typically does after the U.S. election, according to history
• Quantifying how much Nvidia will influence the Dow after it joins the storied average
• Retailers brace for DEI blowback in lead-up to election, holiday shopping season
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Nvidia, Berkshire Hathaway, Yum China and more
• 10-year Treasury yield dives by most in a month after Iowa poll tilts in favor of Harris

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 288 points or 0.69%,
• Nasdaq closed up 145 points or 0.80%,
• S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.41%,
• Gold $2,744 down $5.40 or 0.19%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $0.16 or 0.23%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.380 up 0.096 points or 0.762%,
• USD index $104.31 up $0.34 or 0.32%,
• Bitcoin $69,204 down $1,460 or 2.11%, (24 Hours)
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 585 Canada -3 to 213
  U.S. Rig Count is down 33 rigs from last year’s count of 618 with oil rigs down 17, gas rigs down 16 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks rebounded on Friday as investors processed a disappointing jobs report and positive earnings from major tech companies. The economy added only 12,000 jobs in October, falling significantly short of expectations. Amazon shares surged over 6% after reporting strong earnings and triple-digit revenue growth in its cloud unit’s AI business. Intel stock jumped more than 3% following better-than-expected Q3 revenue and a positive Q4 forecast. Apple shares declined slightly due to weaker-than-expected Q4 service revenue and China revenue. The positive earnings from Amazon and Intel helped alleviate concerns about Big Tech’s prospects. The jobs report is the last major economic data before the Fed’s policy decision on November 7. Market expectations for the upcoming meeting remained largely unchanged, with traders estimating a 99% probability of a quarter-point interest rate reduction. Despite Friday’s recovery, all three major indexes were on track to register losses for the week.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The October 2024 Jobs report was bad. Payroll employment increased by only 12,000 and the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1%. Part of the reason the unemployment rate was unchanged is that the household survey (which provides the headline unemployment rate) reduced the size of the workforce by 220,000, lowered the amount of employed by 368,000, and then removed 428,000 from the workforce. Remember the household survey is a poll of 60,000 households done monthly by the BLS. Note that the Establishment Survey produces the headline 12,000 jobs growth which is totally inconsistent with Household Surveys employment decline of 368,000. The October 2024 BLS jobs report was weak due to several key factors:

1. Hurricane impacts: Hurricanes Helene and Milton affected employment, particularly in Florida and North Carolina, though the exact impact was difficult to quantify.
2. Boeing strike: A significant labor strike at Boeing resulted in approximately 44,000 job losses in the manufacturing sector.
3. Downward revisions: Previous months’ job figures were revised downward significantly. August’s numbers were adjusted from 159,000 to just 78,000, while September’s were revised from 254,000 to 223,000. This resulted in a total downward revision of 112,000 jobs
4. Broad-based weakness: Several sectors experienced job losses or minimal growth:
   • Manufacturing shed 46,000 jobs
   • Temporary help services lost 49,000 jobs
   • Leisure and hospitality declined by 4,000 jobs
   • Retail trade and transportation/warehousing also reported slight losses
5. Slower overall trend: Even before October, job creation in 2024 had been averaging about 200,000 per month, which was already about 60,000 less than the same period in 2023.
6. Economic deceleration: The weak report may indicate a broader economic slowdown, with some pundits blaming the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at controlling inflation.

While some of these factors, like the hurricanes and the Boeing strike, are temporary, the broad-based weakness across sectors and the significant downward revisions to previous months could suggest underlying softness in the job market. Honestly, raising the federal funds rate has little to do with the soft numbers as there was a lot of money available. Goods production is escaping the high cost of doing business in the US with imports rising and domestic production falling. In addition, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) does not explicitly count or exclude unauthorized immigrants in its employment surveys. However, the household survey, which is part of the BLS jobs report, does include unauthorized immigrants in its data collection. With over 10 million illegals in the country recently – how does this affect the jobs report data?

Construction spending during September 2024 was 4.6% above the September 2023 (down from 4.8% last month). Spending on private construction was up 3.8% year-over-year (up from 3.7% last month) and spending on public construction was up 7.0% year-over-year (down from 8.5% last month). Construction spending is one of the bright spots in the economy but growth has been declining in 2024.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.5% in October 2024, 0.7 percentage point lower compared to the 47.2 percent recorded in September. This is the lowest Manufacturing PMI reading in 2024. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 54th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.1 percent, 1 percentage point higher than the 46.1 percent recorded in September. Manufacturing contraction is accelerating and pretty soon made in USA labels will be hard to find.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Interest Rates and Weak Demand Cloud European Steel Market
• U.S. Drilling Activity Going Nowhere Baker Hughes Data Shows
• Exxon Completes Sale of French Refinery to Trafigura-Led Buyer
• Oil Markets on Edge After a Volatile Week
• A Mixed Earnings Season for Oil and Gas Giants
• Stocks climb to start November as traders look past weak jobs report: Live updates
• Here’s where the jobs are for October 2024 – in one chart
• IRS announces 401(k) contribution limits for 2025
• Election next week holds big implications for stock market, especially the control of Congress
• Super Micro’s 44% plunge this week wipes out stock’s gains for the year
• Bitcoin slips below $70,000 after notching 12% gain in October: CNBC Crypto World
• Record numbers of wealthy Americans are making plans to leave the U.S. after the election
• Amazon shares jump 7%, approach record after earnings beat

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 378 points or 0.90%,
• Nasdaq closed down 513 points or 2.76%,
• S&P 500 closed down 108 points or 1.86%,
• Gold $2,757 down $44.20 or 1.59%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.93 or 2.81%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.282 up 0.016 points or 0.113%,
• USD index $103.90 down $0.01 or 0.01%,
• Bitcoin $69,969 down $1,973 or 2.82%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The US stock market experienced a significant decline on Thursday, led by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones ended October slightly in the red. Big Tech Earnings Concerns Meta and Microsoft’s earnings reports sparked worries about Big Tech prospects. Both companies beat Wall Street estimates but flagged increased spending on AI infrastructure. Concerns about pressure on profitability led to share price drops for Meta and Microsoft. This unsettled mood affected other tech giants like Amazon, Apple, and Nvidia. Amazon and Apple are set to report earnings after market close today. Bond yields surged, with the 10-year Treasury yield climbing to 4.33%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed core inflation at 2.7% annually in September, higher than expected.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

NFIB’s October jobs report found that 35% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in October, up one point from September’s lowest reading since January 2021. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top operating problem rose three points from September to 20%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

On Main Street, the job market remains challenging. Although the labor market appears to be softening overall, small business owners reported little success filling their plentiful vacancies in October.

The Chicago Business Barometer^™ dropped 5.0 points to 41.6 in October 2024 after edging up for two consecutive months, making the barometer the lowest since May 2024, and 1.6 points below the year-to-date average. Not sure what is going on here as I would call this a recession flag EXCEPT it is a survey – not fact but opinion.

Real Disposable Personal Income is up3.1% year-over-year (unchanged from last month) whilst Real Personal Consumption Expenditures is up 3.1% year-over-year (up from 3.0% from last month). Inflation measured by the PCE price index is 2.1% (improved from 2.3% last month) whilst the all important PCE price index less food and energy was little changed at 2.7%. This data was a touch stronger than I expected by aligns with the slight improvement in my October Economic Forecast. Also note that the inflation index used by the Federal Reserve (the one less food and energy) was little changed.

In the week ending October 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,500, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 238,500 to 238,750. This unemployment data is not recessionary.

U.S.-based employers announced 55,597 cuts in October 2024, down 23.7% from the 72,821 cuts announced one month prior. It is 51% higher than the 36,836 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. October’s total marks the seventh time this year job cut announcements are higher than the corresponding month one year prior. These numbers are somewhat elevated and support my position that economic growth is weak.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Aston Martin’s Pre-Tax Losses Plummet by 90% in Q3
• North Korea’s Surprise Involvement in Ukraine War is Bad News for China
• Record Shale Production Helps ConocoPhillips Beat Profit Estimates
• Oil Prices Rebound, But Henry Hub Nat Gas Still Taking a Beating
• New Survey Shows Grim Outlook For Oil Markets
• Regulatory Uncertainty Casts Shadow Over U.S. LNG Industry
• IMF Cuts Middle East Growth Outlook on Oil Output Cuts and Conflicts
• Amazon shares pop on earnings beat, cloud growth
• Intel shares pop 12% on earnings beat, uplifting guidance
• Microsoft’s stock has worst day in two years after disappointing forecast
• Key inflation rate hits 2.1% in September, as expected, closing in on Fed target
• Bitcoin retreats to $70,000 to close out October: CNBC Crypto World
• Coinbase drops 15% after earnings, posts worst day in more than two years
• Stock market suffers a Halloween selloff as tech investors get the chills

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 92 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed down 105 points or 0.56%, (Closed at 18,608, New Historic high 18,785)
• S&P 500 closed down 19 points or 0.33%,
• Gold $2,798 up $17.10 or 0.63%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $1.71 or 2.53%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.280 up 0.006 points or 0.051%,
• USD index $104.06 down $0.25 or 0.24%,
• Bitcoin $71,820 down $3,878 or 0.54%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The major US stock indexes closed lower after fluctuating throughout the trading session. Alphabet’s (GOOG, GOOGL) strong quarterly results boosted optimism for Big Tech with Alphabet shares jumping nearly 3% Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT) saw smaller gains Investors eagerly await after-hours earnings reports from Meta and Microsoft. Fresh economic data provided mixed signals: US economic growth slowed to a 2.8% annualized rate last quarter, slightly below forecasts Consumer spending remained robust as inflation continued to fall. ADP report showed a surge in US private payroll growth for October. Reddit (RDDT) stock soared over 40% after reporting its first-ever profit as a public company and beating revenue expectations.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 233,000 jobs in October 2024 according to ADP. The largest growth was in the services sector with the manufacturing sector losing 19,000 jobs. Even I am surprised at the high jobs growth for a variety of reasons. This boosts the chance that Friday’s jobs report from the BLS will be strong also. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist ADP opinion:

Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October. As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient.

The advance estimate of 3Q2024 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 2.7% growth year-over-year – down from the 2Q2024’s 3.0%. The inflation indicator (Implicit Price Deflator) moderated from 2.6% year-over-year to 2.2%. It appears that inflation in the elements that make up GDP are moderating – all whilst GDP is slowing. Remember buying anything used (most houses and cars sold are used) or imported items ares not included in GDP, and insurance and payouts in GDP is somewhat complex. But tomorrows Personal Income and Expenditures DOES include used and imported items. All this is why GDP is not an important metric for Joe and Jane Sixpack to understand how the economy is doing for them personally.

Pending home sales in September 2024 increased by 2.6% year-over-year, the first increase since March, and the fastest increase since May 2021. Literally, pending home sales since 2022 have been down 25% from the previous 10 year period. I can see no recovery for home sales without some combination of lower mortgage rates and/or home prices.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Hess Beats Q3 Earnings Estimates On Robust Guyana Output
• U.S. Governors Demand Power Price Overhaul As Costs Balloon 10 Fold
• Mapping the Flow of Goods Through the Taiwan Strait
• Oil Steady After EIA Confirms Draw in Crude, Gasoline Inventories
• The West Needs Incentives to Cut Russian Nuclear Fuel Dependence
• Microsoft beats on top and bottom lines, driven by better-than-expected cloud growth
• Meta beats on top and bottom lines but misses user growth expectations
• Super Micro shares plunge 33% as auditor resigns after raising concerns months earlier
• Reddit shares close up 42% on profitability, rosy guidance
• Inflation is cooling, yet many Americans are still living paycheck to paycheck
• U.S. economy grew at a 2.8% pace in the third quarter, less than expected
• Here’s why some NBA teams show their games on TV for free, while others charge fans hundreds of dollars

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 155 points or 0.36%,
• Nasdaq closed up 146 points or 0.78%, (Closed at 18,713, New Historic high 18,753
• S&P 500 closed up 9 points or 0.16%,
• Gold $2,785 up $29.30 or 1.06%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $0.14 or 0.21%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.260 up 0.018 points or 0.148%,
• USD index $104.29 down $0.02 or 0.02%,
• Bitcoin $72,451 up $2,884 or 3.98%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at a record high. The S&P 500 followed the NASDAQ’s lead but the Dow Jones Industrial Average was the only major index to close in the red, falling around 0.4%. Tech Stocks led the market gains, with Broadcom surging over 4% on news of a collaboration with Microsoft-aligned OpenAI. Investors absorbed a wave of earnings reports, with particular focus on upcoming results from tech giants. Alphabet’s highly anticipated results due after market close, are seen as a potential indicator of Big Tech’s AI investments paying off. Gold and silver prices rallied, with gold touching new highs near $2,770 per ounce. The U.S. presidential election is adding some uncertainty to markets in the final days of campaigning.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies rose slightly to 202 in September from 200 one month prior. It is up 23% from 164 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year, according to a report released Tuesday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. So far this year, 1,652 CEOs have announced their departures, the highest year-to-date total on record, since Challenger began tracking CEO changes in 2002.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.2% in August 2024, dropping from a 5.9% increase in the previous month. Generally, home price increases peak in March and decline for the rest of the year – so it comes as no surprise that inflation is moderating in August. Here is the perspective of CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp:

Despite much-needed optimism, brought by a sharp decline in mortgage rates in August, the boost was short lived and not enough to renew homebuyers’ interest. As a result, home prices continued to weaken relative to their seasonal trend and year-over- year gains took a step back. Nevertheless, bifurcation in housing demand and price growth remained with the West and South seeing stronger slowdown in home prices and Northeast and Midwest continuing to see home price gains remaining robust. The tale of two regions reflects significant affordability challenges in the West and South, where home price surge in recent years and high mortgage rates priced out many potential buyers, while the Northeast and Midwest continue to benefit from relative affordability and less collective increase in prices over the last few years, but also more limited for-sale inventory.

The number of job openings was little changed at 7.4 million on the last business day of September. Over the month, hires changed little at 5.6 million. The number of total separations was unchanged at 5.2 million. There is a general correlation between job openings and employment increases. The graph below shows that since March 2023, the year-over-year decline has been in a narrow range – but all the same it is a decline. One would expect that employment growth should continue to moderate IF the way job openings is counted does not include phantom job openings (and the phantom job openings are the ones being removed). 

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in October to 108.7 (1985=100), up from 99.2 in September. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board perspective:

Consumer confidence recorded the strongest monthly gain since March 2021, but still did not break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. In October’s reading, all five components of the Index improved. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned positive. Views on the current availability of jobs rebounded after several months of weakness, potentially reflecting better labor market data. Compared to last month, consumers were substantially more optimistic about future business conditions and remained positive about future income. Also, for the first time since July 2023, they showed some cautious optimism about future job availability.  October’s increase in confidence was broad-based across all age groups and most income groups. In terms of age, confidence rose sharpest for consumers aged 35 to 54. On a six-month moving average basis, householders aged under 35 and those earning over $100K remained the most confident.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• NATO Chief Confirms North Korean Troops in Russia’s Kursk Region
• U.S. To Buy 3 Million Barrels for The SPR, But There’s A Problem
• Small Nuclear Reactors to Power Czech Republic’s Green Energy Shift
• Ford’s Q3 Earnings: A Mixed Bag for Investors
• Gold’s Record High Suggests Inflation Isn’t Over Just Yet
• Alphabet beats on top and bottom lines, boosted by cloud revenue
• Consumer confidence surges as election nears, while job openings move lower
• Crypto company Consensys cuts 20% of workforce, citing regulatory uncertainty: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield crosses ‘line in the sand’ that begins to spell trouble for stocks
• 10-year Treasury yield closes below 4.3% after Tuesday’s initial selloff fades
• Oil prices edge down to finish at lowest in seven weeks

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.