Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 212 points or 0.63%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.65%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.15%,
• Gold $1,924 down $10.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $1.71,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.762% up 0.041 points,
• USD Index $102.47 down $0.22,
• Bitcoin $30,673 up $394,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller 20-city composite index was down 1.7% year-over-year. Compared with the 2006 peak, the 20-city composite is up by 49%. Adjusted for inflation, which continues to remain concerningly elevated, the 20-city index showed a 3% increase compared with its 2006 high point. The latest CoreLogic’s latest Home Price Index projects that home prices nationally will average a 4% increase in 2023 compared with the previous year.

The Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained relatively flat in June, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose from −15 in May to −7 in June. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also improved but remained below zero. Manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May were up 5.4% year-over-year (3.6% inflation-adjusted). Before one thinks this is a strong report – this monthly increase was almost totally due to Boeing’s new orders – and does not show a broad-based improvement in this sector.

US Consumer Confidence Improved Substantially in June to 109.7, up from 102.5 in May. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence improved in June to its highest level since January 2022, reflecting improved current conditions and a pop in expectations. Greater confidence was most evident among consumers under age 35, and consumers earning incomes over $35,000. Nonetheless, the expectations gauge continued to signal consumers anticipating a recession at some point over the next 6 to 12 months.

Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2023 were 25.9% above May 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2023 was $416,300 – down 7.6% year-over-year. The average sales price was $487,300. Not a surprise that when you sell a cheaper house – the sales volumes increase.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Fuel From Thin Air: A Technological Feat Or Economic Folly?
• Copper Can Go Up 10 Times, Warns Billionaire Mine-Owner
• Russia Asks For Same Oil Deal Chevron Has In Venezuela
• The Hidden Costs Of The IEA’s Net Zero Vision
• Russia’s Crude Oil Exports Dip By Nearly 1 Million Bpd
• S&P 500, Nasdaq rally more than 1% as tech leads turnaround, Dow closes 200 points higher: Live updates
• Morgan Stanley Sees First Negative Payroll Print In August Or September
• Banking: UBS cutting half of Credit Suisse staff and about 35,000 or 30% of combined staff after merger: Bloomberg
• ‘This is a game-changer’: Ahead of Amazon Prime Day, a new law makes it harder for online sellers to hawk fake or stolen products

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 13 points or 0.04%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.16%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.45%,
• Gold $1,933 up $3.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $0.29,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.713% down 0.026 points,
• USD Index $102.75 down $0.16,
• Bitcoin $30,264 down $196,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Dallas Fed’s Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s production index fell three points to -4.2, a reading indicative of a slight contraction in output. The new orders sub-index has been in negative territory for more than a year and remained at -16.6.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Investors Wary As Beijing’s Stimulus Strategy Falls Short
• Middle East Defies Weakening Asian Market To Lift Prices
• Putin Scrambles To Reassure Allies Following Mercenary Mutiny
• Global Floating Oil Storage Hits Highest Level Since October 2020
• Natural Gas And Wheat Prices Jump On Russia Turmoil
• Nasdaq sheds 1% on Monday as investors dump tech names to start final week of June: Live updates
• Bitcoin drops below $31,000, and Binance prohibited from operating in Belgium: CNBC Crypto World
• Americans think they will need nearly $1.3 million to retire comfortably, study says. How to calculate your own ‘magic number’
• Banks being slow to pass on savings rates – Hunt
• IPO Report: IPO market readies for six-deal week, with four expected to raise more than $100 million
• The Ratings Game: Banks face yet another risk, this time from faster payments, Moody’s says

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 219 points or 0.65%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.01%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.77%,
• Gold $1,930 up $5.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.251,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.735% down 0.064 points,
• USD Index $102.88 up $0.50,
• Bitcoin $30,889 up $710,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. down 5 to 682 rigs

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

None

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Oil Drilling Slow Down Continues
• Nigeria Owes Oil Majors $3 Billion For Crude Swaps
• Central Bank Action Pushes Oil Prices Down Again
• Companies without direct A.I. link try to ride the Wall Street craze
• Market momentum wanes heading into the final week of June after monster rally in the first half
• Bitcoin briefly rises above $31,000 to highest level in more than a year to cap the week
• Bitcoin crosses $31,000, and Supreme Court rules in favor of Coinbase in dispute: CNBC Crypto World
• Mortgages: Banks promise more protection as mortgage rates soar
• Mutual Funds Weekly: These money and investing tips can fuel your portfolio if the market runs out of gasBond Report: U.S. yields slip by most in a week after a spree of central bank rate hikes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 5 points or 0.01%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.95%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.37%,
• Gold $1,924 down $21.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $3.11,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.795% up 0.072 points,
• USD Index $102.41 up $0.34,
• Bitcoin $30,234 up $59,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In the week ending June 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 255,750, an increase of 8,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 13, 2021 when it was 260,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 246,750 to 247,250.

Existing-home sales rose insignificantly month-over-month in May 2023, with gains in the South and West and declined in the Northeast and Midwest regions of the U.S. Sales in all four regions combined fell 20.4% year-over-year. The median existing-home price declined by 3.1% from May 2022.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing area declined further in June 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -12 in June, down from -1 in May and from -10 in April. This indicates a contraction in manufacturing activity.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in May 2023 to 106.7, following a decline of 0.6 percent in April. The LEI is down 4.3 percent over the six-month period between November 2022 and May 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months from May to November 2022. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board said a recession is coming:

The US LEI continued to fall in May as a result of deterioration in the gauges of consumer expectations for business conditions, ISM® New Orders Index, a negative yield spread, and worsening credit conditions. The US Leading Index has declined in each of the last fourteen months and continues to point to weaker economic activity ahead. Rising interest rates paired with persistent inflation will continue to further dampen economic activity. While we revised our Q2 GDP forecast from negative to slight growth, we project that the US economy will contract over the Q3 2023 to Q1 2024 period. The recession likely will be due to continued tightness in monetary policy and lower government spending.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• How Renewable Energy Prosumers Are Decentralizing The Power Grid
• U.S. Department Of Energy Splashes $9.2B On Ford EV Batteries
• Soaring Car Prices Put American Auto Loans Underwater
• Oil Falls Despite Moderate Draw In Crude Inventories
• Oil Prices Dip As Further Interest Rate Hikes Loom
• S&P 500, Nasdaq rise to end 3-day losing streak as investors snap up tech shares: Live updates
• Fed Chair Powell says smaller banks likely will be exempt from higher capital requirements
• New technologies hurt car quality as EV brands fare poorly, J.D. Power says
• Ghosts Of 2000 And 2007 Market Tops Are Absent Today
• Movers & Shakers: Tesla, Anheuser-Busch, Logitech stocks rise, AMC, iRobot, Virgin Galactic shares fall, and other stocks on the move

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 102 points or 0.30%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.21%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.52%,
• Gold $1,945 down $2.6,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $1.39,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.723% down 0.004 points,
• USD Index $102.07 down $0.47,
• Bitcoin $30,141 up $2,135,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

None

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• New Wall Street-Backed Crypto Exchange Sends Bitcoin Soaring
• Stainless Steel Prices Dip Despite Nickel Rebound
• China Close To Signing 27-Year LNG Supply Deal With Qatar
• Energy Regulator Claims Canadian Oil Production Will Plunge 76% By 2050
• Powell expects more Fed rate hikes ahead as inflation fight ‘has a long way to go’
• FTC sues Amazon over ‘deceptive’ Prime sign-up and cancellation process
• Stocks close lower for third straight day, Nasdaq drops 1% as investors’ optimism wanes: Live updates
• Weekly mortgage demand was flat, even as interest rates drop for the third straight week
• Bitcoin pops above $30,000 as WisdomTree and Invesco join the bitcoin ETF rush: CNBC Crypto World

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 245 points or 0.72%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.47%,
• Gold $1,949 down $22.4,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.84,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.719% down 0.050 points,
• USD Index $102.56 up $0.04,
• Bitcoin $27,941 up $1,201,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May were 12.7 percent below May 2022. Privately‐owned housing starts in May were 5.7 percent above May 2022. Privately‐owned housing completions in May were 5.0 percent above May 2022. The housing sector is appearing to be improving.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• India Is Becoming A New Powerhouse In Global Steel Production
• Solar Silicon Prices Hit Rock Bottom Amid Overproduction
• WTI Drops As Demand Fears Take Over Markets
• Drought Could Jeopardize Cargo Flows Through Panama Canal
• German Carmakers To Suffer As China’s EV Boom Accelerates
• Oil Prices Fall On Chinese Demand Fears
• Stocks close lower for a second straight day, Dow sheds 200 points as market rally cools: Live updates
• Hunter Biden to plead guilty to federal tax crimes, take deal on gun charge
• Bitcoin hits new high for June as more financial incumbents signal commitment to crypto
• Bed Bath & Beyond schedules separate auction for Buy Buy Baby assets
• China Plans Military Base In Cuba In Response To US Support For Taiwan
• Bond Report: 30-year Treasury yield drops to five-week low, with Fed speakers still ahead

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

The stock markets are closed today for Juneteenth but there is still news. Click on the “Read More” below to read all the headlines we are following today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow was closed,
• Nasdaq was closed,
• S&P 500 was closed,
• Gold $1962 down $8.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.49,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.767% up 0.039 points,
• USD index $102.52 up $0.28,
• Bitcoin $26,733 up $396

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Although the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are currently shut down due to the longshoreman in June, May 2023 was a good month for container imports into the US. Imports were down “only” 18% year-over-year (clawing back from -35% in February). Much of the reason for the poor year-over-year performance was a slowdown of imports after clearing the significant backlog last year. Imports are a gauge of the economy in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Permian Basin Is Out-Producing Saudi Arabia’s Ghawar Field
• Blinken And Xi Sit Down In “Positive Step” Towards Mending Relations
• China Expands Influence In Latin America Through Belt And Road Initiative
• Why Amazon built a second headquarters and how the pandemic reshaped HQ2
• These stocks are on the verge of forming a bullish chart pattern
• The 7 U.S. cities where a $250,000 salary is worth the least — New York is No. 1
• Rand Paul: “Bill Gates Is Largest Funder Of Trying To Find Viruses In Caves And Bring Them To Big Cities”
• “Extreme Greed”: A “Prescient Signal Of A Durable Economy” Or A Giant Bull Trap
• Russian Nukes Will Stay In Belarus Indefinitely: Kremlin
• Record aircraft purchase announced at Paris Airshow

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 109 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.68%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.37%,
• Gold $1,968 down $2.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.03,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.769% up 0.039 points,
• USD Index $102.32 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $26,355 up $894,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -8 to 687 Canada +23 to 159

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The 15 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2023 than they predicted in the December 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the first half of 2023. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2023, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of -0.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey. Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first half of 2024. Additionally:

• On an annual-average over annual-average basis, CPI inflation is expected to be 4.1 percent in 2023 and 2.5 percent in 2024.
• The interest rate on three-month Treasury bills is now predicted to be 5.25 percent at the end of June 2023, an upward revision from 5.05 percent in the previous survey. The forecasters predict the three-month rate will fall to 4.80 percent at the end of December 2023 and 3.05 percent at the end of June 2024. The panelists see the rate at 2.95 percent at the end of December 2024.
• The panelists predict the S&P 500 index will finish the first half of 2023 at a level of 4200.0, marking an upward revision from their previous prediction of 3927.4. Stock prices are expected to rise to 4260.4 at the end of 2023 and continue to rise to 4350.9 at the end of June 2024. The index is predicted to reach 4411.0 by the end of 2024. All forecasts for stock prices mark upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey.

Consumer sentiment lifted 8% in June, reaching its highest level in four months, reflecting greater optimism as inflation eased and policymakers resolved the debt ceiling crisis. The outlook on the economy surged 28% over the short run and 14% over the long run. Sentiment is now 28% above the historic low from a year ago and may be resuming its upward trajectory since then. As it stands, though, sentiment remains low by historical standards as income expectations softened. A majority of consumers still expect difficult times in the economy over the next year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• A Deep Dive Into The World’s Leading Lithium Producers
• U.S. Shale Patch Sees Rig Count Decline By 8 This Week
• How To Protect Your Wealth If The Fed Is Lying About More Interest Rate Hikes
• S&P 500 breaks six-day win streak on Friday, but still notches best week since March: Live updates
• Elon Musk says Tesla’s market cap is directly tied to whether it solves autonomous driving
• An ETF focused on the ‘moats’ strategy of Warren Buffett is beating the market once again
• Ukraine war live updates: Putin says nuclear weapons transferred to Belarus; Ukraine ‘will be equal to NATO allies’
• Cryptocurrencies climb to end the week as investors digest BlackRock’s bitcoin ETF plans
• Converting gas-powered cars to EVs is a booming business
• “Broke Generation”: 64% Of Gen Xers Have Stopped Saving For Retirement
• Average two-year mortgage rate close to 6%
• Bond Report: Two-year Treasury yield rises for a second straight week after Fed officials repeat need for more rate hikes
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks trade lower, but S&P 500 on pace for longest weekly win streak since 2021 after Fed pause

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 429 points or 1.26%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.15%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.22%,
• Gold $1,971 up $1.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $2.31,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.717% down 0.008 points,
• USD Index $102.11 down $0.83,
• Bitcoin $25,456 down $271,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production continues with literally no growth (0.2% year-over-year) in May 2023. In May, the index for manufacturing was down 0.3% year-over-year, while the indexes for mining and utilities were 5.0% and -3.8% year-over-year, respectively. Capacity utilization moved down to 79.6 percent in May, a rate that is 0.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2022) average. This is weak data.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for May 2023 were up 2.8% year-over-year (0.6% inflation-adjusted). However, consider most of the “weakness” in sales is now coming from the decline in fuel prices. I consider this a relatively stronger report than last month, and does not have the stench of recession.

Import prices have fallen 5.9% year-over-year whilst export prices have fallen 10.1%. Import prices affect consumer prices – but the primary reason for import price decline is fuel imports.

The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey declined from -10.4 last month to -13.7 in June 2023, its 10th consecutive negative reading. The sub-index for new orders declined. Manufacturing appears to be in a recession.

In the week ending June 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 246,750, an increase of 9,250 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021, when it was 249,250. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 237,250 to 237,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• European Central Bank Hikes Rates To 22-year High
• Heatwaves Are Sending Demand For Fossil Fuels Soaring
• Aluminum Prices Flatline As LME Grapples With Russian Inventory
• Scientists Leap Forward In Sustainable Hydrogen Production
• New Truck Orders Defy Troubled Freight Market
• Mediterranean restaurant chain Cava stock soars as much as 117% in market debut
• S&P 500, Nasdaq rally for sixth straight day as traders hope Fed’s rate-hiking cycle is nearly over: Live updates
• The market isn’t buying the Fed’s tough talk on interest rates
• Bitcoin sinks below $25,000, and U.S. withdraws new charges in SBF case for now: CNBC Crypto World
• American F-22 Fighter Jets Deployed To Middle East Amid Russian Aircraft Activity
• Market Snapshot: Dow jumps nearly 450 points as S&P 500, Nasdaq hit fresh 14-month highs despite hawkish Fed and ECB

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 233 points or 0.68%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.39%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
• Gold $1,960 up $1.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.800% down 0.041 points,
• USD Index $103.06 down $0.28,
• Bitcoin $25,853 up $21,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve did what the market expected holding the federal funds rate steady stating in part:

…  the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 to 5-1/4 percent. Holding the target range steady at this meeting allows the Committee to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent of additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

Their forward-looking words on what happens next:

;;; In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

The bottom line is that this statement really gives you no clues on the future of the federal funds rate. However, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference did indicate future rate hikes as well as well as dot-plots which show 2 more increases. Further, Chair Powell said he doesn’t see a rate cut until inflation comes down meaningfully and significantly, and that can take a couple of years.

Inflation seems to have been tamed as the producer price index (PPI) has fallen from 2.3% in April to 1.1% in May 2023. The PPI less foods and energy declined from 3.3% to 2.8% in May.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Rystad Sees Major Jump In Battery Storage Capacity Through 2030
• Polysilicon Price Surge: A Challenge For Emerging Solar Markets
• Oil Moves Lower After EIA Confirms Large Crude Build
• JP Morgan Slashes Oil Price Forecast To $81 This Year
• Shell To Raise Dividend By 15% As It Doubles Down On Oil And Gas
• Fed recap: Breaking down the market’s reaction to the Fed’s pause and all of Powell’s key comments
• S&P 500 closes little changed after Fed leaves rates unchanged, signals more hikes are coming: Live updates
• Treasury yields waver as traders weigh latest Fed decision and potential moves going forward
• Stocks & Gold Slump After Hawkish Fed Sends Rate-Hike Odds Soaring
• The Fed: Fed skips June interest-rate hike, but points to two more increases this year
• Futures Movers: Oil settles lower as an ‘adjustment’ contributes to a nearly 8 million-barrel weekly U.S. crude supply climb

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.