Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 191 points or 0.54%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.17%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.70%,
• Gold $1,950 down $9.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $1.27,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.008% down 0.016 points,
• USD Index $102.50 down $0.03,
• Bitcoin $29,389 down $491,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No economic releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• GasBuddy Sees U.S. Gasoline Demand Rising
• European Gas Prices Surge 30% On Australian Supply Fears
• Germany Looks To Gold To Help Weather Financial Storm
• Oil Ticks Higher On Fuel Inventory Draws
• U.S. Power Sector Criticizes Biden’s Emissions Reduction Plan
• Thursday’s inflation data may be low, but don’t expect the Fed to declare ‘mission accomplished’ yet
• ‘This is going to get worse before it gets better’: Panama Canal pileup due to drought reaches 154 vessels
• Yields Slide After Impressive 10Y Auction Sees Most Foreign Buying Since February
• The Ratings Game: Lyft’s second and third quarters look fine — but analysts are worried about the fourth

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

1. The Dow closed down 159 points or 0.45%,
2. Nasdaq closed down 0.79%,
3. S&P 500 closed down 0.42%,
4. Gold $1,960 down $10.00,
5. WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.93,
6. 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.022% down 0.056 points,
7. USD Index $102.54 up $0.49,
8. Bitcoin $29,904 up $774,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

June 2023 inflation-adjusted exports were up 7.7% year-over-year, imports were down 1.7% year-over-year, and the trade deficit continues to improve. The decrease in imports was widespread as was the increase in exports.

June 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers are down 6.7% from June 2022 (green line on the graph below). While sales are falling, inventories grew 1.3% year-over-year – so the inventory-to-sales ratio worsened from 1.30 a year ago to 1.41 (blue line on the graph below). Normally this is a sign of a slowing economy but there are many factors in play that clouds the interpretation of this data set.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EIA Raises Brent Spot Price Forecast
• U.S. And China Locked In Underwater Tug-of-War
• Will The Steel Price Slide Help Drive The Auto Industry Forward?
• America’s Credit Downgrade: A Sign Of The Times Or Tip Of The Iceberg?
• Cloud stocks falter as Datadog trims 2023 revenue expectations
• Credit card balances jumped in the second quarter and are above $1 trillion for the first time
• Moody’s cuts ratings of 10 U.S. banks and puts some big names on downgrade watch
• Electric Cadillac Escalade to test GM’s EV strategy, cash machine
• Mortgage credit availability sinks to decade low
• Market Snapshot: Dow falls 150 points after weak China data, Moody’s downgrade on regional banks
• Financial Face-Off: Cats vs. dogs: Which pet makes better financial sense?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 408 points or 1.16%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.61%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.90%,
• Gold $1,971 down $4.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.34,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.095% up 0.028 points,
• USD Index $102.07 down $0.05,
• Bitcoin $28,101 up $53,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Reducing Consumption: The Unpopular Answer To Global Crises
• From Mongolia To Mexico: America’s Global Pursuit Of Critical Minerals
• Oil Price Rally Ends Along With Peak Of Summer Driving Season
• The U.S. Has Just 22 EV Charging Points Per 1,000 Road Miles
• Saudi Aramco’s Q2 Earnings Drop 38% On Lower Oil Prices
• Dow jumps more than 400 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq snap four-day losing streaks as stocks rebound: Live updates
• Trump counterclaim against E. Jean Carroll dismissed, DA can get deposition
• Amazon switches rockets for first test satellites to expedite launch
• Consumers Finally Crack: Shocking Drop In June Credit Card Debt Marks End Of Spending Binge
• Higher food prices may be here to stay, says Bank economist
• As Yellow files for Chapter 11, $700 million pandemic bailout in the spotlight
• Futures Movers: Oil prices end lower, pulling back after 6th straight weekly rise

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 150 points or 0.43%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.36%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.53%,
• Gold $1,977 up $7.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.07,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.050% down 0.139 points,
• USD Index $102.04 down $0.50,
• Bitcoin $28,984 down $308,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -5 to 659 Canada -5 to 188

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 187,000 in July 2023, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%.  The employment gains show a continued cooling of the jobs sector – but still not bad. The household survey shows employment gains of 268,000 against the establishment survey’s 187,000. Health care growth accounted for nearly half of the gains. The leisure and hospitality sector has really cooled off and shows only 17,000 gains.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• OPEC’s Production Drops More Than 1 Million Bpd In July: Argus
• Oil Products Accounted For 57% Of 2021 U.S. Energy Expenditure
• Oil Prices Continue To Climb As Pace Of Drilling Continues To Slow
• Amazon stock rallies after blowout quarter
• JPMorgan backs off recession call even with ‘very elevated’ risks
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumble for four straight days, both notch worst weeks since March: Live updates
• Here’s where the jobs are for July 2023 — in one chart
• US jobs market holds steady despite rate rises
• Inflation among top 10 factors affecting fixed income market
• Market Snapshot: Stocks turn lower, S&P 500 heads for fourth straight day of losses

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 67 points or 0.19%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.10%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.25%,
• Gold $1,969 down $6.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $2.19,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.183% up 0.105 points,
• USD Index $102.51 down $0.08,
• Bitcoin $29,261 up $133,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 23,697 job cuts in July 2023 a 42% decrease from the 40,709 cuts announced one month prior. It is 8% lower than the 25,810 cuts announced in the same month last year, and marks the first time this year cuts were lower than the corresponding month one year earlier.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 1.3% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023 – an improvement from the previous quarter’s -0.6% year-over-year. Unit labor costs increased 2.4% in the same period which is a slowing from the previous period.

New orders for manufactured goods in June 2023 decreased 0.2% year-over-year (but UP 6.1% inflation-adjusted – red line on the graph below). The Federal Reserve’s industrial production manufacturing is down 0.3% year-over-year.

In the week ending July 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 228,250, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 233,750.

In July 2023, the ISM Services PMI^® registered 52.7%, 1.2 percentage points lower than June’s reading of 53.9 percent. The Business Activity sub-index registered 57.1 percent, a 2.1 percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 59.2 percent in June. The New Orders sub-index was 55% and is 0.5 percentage points lower than the June reading of 55.5%. These numbers represent a weak growth service sector.

Forty-two percent of small business owners (seasonally adjusted) reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 23%, down one point from June. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem to owners increased by two points to 10%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The small business economy continues to struggle with the current job market, with owners working hard to fill open positions. Hiring plans are trending down but are still historically strong in the face of a weakening economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Automakers Bank On Gigafactories For EV Expansion
• Colombia’s Economic Woes Worsen As Cocaine Prices Plunge
• What Does China’s Stimulus Plan Mean For Rare Earths?
• The Oil Price Rally Is Gaining Serious Momentum
• Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of Saudi Arabia’s Next Production Cut Announcement
• S&P 500 closes lower for a third day as rising bond yields pressure stocks: Live updates
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Southwest Airlines, Qualcomm, Roku, Clorox and more
• Bond Bloodbath Builds, Yield Curve Steepens, Black Gold Bounces Ahead Of Payrolls
• ‘COVID-Karen’ Installed As Fauci’s Replacement At NIAID
• Morgan Stanley upgrades India to overweight, downgrades China
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks edge lower after biggest drop in 3 months

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 348 points or 0.98%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.17%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.38%,
• Gold $1,972 down $6.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $1.58,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.071% up 0.024 points,
• USD Index $102.62 up $0.31,
• Bitcoin $29,131 down $123,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 324,000 jobs in July according to ADP (blue line on graph below). Job creation remained robust in July, with leisure and hospitality again driving growth. One weakness was manufacturing, an interest rate-sensitive industry that shed jobs for the fifth straight month. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP stated:

The economy is doing better than expected and a healthy labor market continues to support household spending. We continue to see a slowdown in pay growth without broad-based job loss.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• There Is A Financial Crisis Brewing In Offshore Wind Energy
• Chesapeake Energy Sees Drilling Costs Plummeting
• Pakistan Facing Energy Crisis After Putting Off Buying Pricey LNG
• Oil Falls Despite Massive Crude Inventory Draw
• Saudi Aramco Closes In On Walmart As World’s Top Firm By Revenue
• Europe’s LNG Imports Fall To 20-Month Low
• JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon calls Fitch Ratings U.S. downgrade ‘ridiculous,’ but says ‘doesn’t really matter’
• Nasdaq drops more than 2% for worst day since February as Fitch downgrade ignites selloff: Live updates
• Private sector added 324,000 jobs in July, well above expectations, ADP says
• Janet Yellen: Credit downgrade ‘puzzling’ and ‘unwarranted’
• Market Extra: How Fitch downgrade might impact Treasury’s $1 trillion third-quarter borrowing plans

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 71 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.43%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.27%,
• Gold $1,982 down $26.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.27,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.037% up 0.078 points,
• USD Index $102.24 up $0.38,
• Bitcoin $29,269 up $86,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of job openings was little changed at 9.6 million on the last business day of June 2023. As the number of job openings roughly correlates to employment gains, one would expect a continued modest slowing of employment gains in July 2023.

Construction spending during June 2023 increased 3.5% year-over-year (red line on the graph below) – down 6.2% year-over-year inflation-adjusted (blue line on the graph below). Construction is on an improving trend line.

The July 2023 Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.4 percent, 0.4 percentage point higher than the 46 percent recorded in June. This figure indicates an eighth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Exxon Eyes Lithium Leadership: Enters Talks With Tesla, Ford, And Volkswagen
• OPEC’S Production Falls By Most In 3 Years: Survey
• Russian Crude Oil Exports Plunge To January Lows
• Automakers Push Back Against New 58 MPG Fuel Efficiency Proposal
• Russian Diesel Exports Rise As Refineries Return From Maintenance
• S&P 500 slips to kick off August, Dow notches small gain after touching highest level in over a year: Live updates
• Job openings, layoffs declined in June in a positive sign for the labor market
• CVS to slash 5,000 jobs as company deepens costly health-care push
• Short-Covering By Hedge Funds Lifted Oil Prices
• Yellow’s Collapse A Tailwind For Other Freight Carrier Names, Deutsche Bank Says
• Mid-sized private companies are more ‘cautiously optimistic’ but no one knows where the economy is headed, lender says

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 100 points or 0.28%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.21%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.15%,
• Gold $2,004 up $3.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.30,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.963% down 0.008 points,
• USD Index $101.89 up $0.27,
• Bitcoin $29,191 up $21,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey‘s production index held fairly steady at -4.8, a reading indicative of a modest contraction in output. The new orders index has been in negative territory for more than a year and edged down to -18.1. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China Is Leading The Global Battery Electric Vehicle Race
• Explaining The Heat Wave: Separating Weather From Climate Change
• American Gasoline Prices Suddenly Soar On Heat Wave
• Ford Suffers $4.5 Billion Setback Amid Tesla’s Aggressive Pricing
• S&P 500, Nasdaq notch modest gains Monday, rise for the fifth straight month: Live updates
• Elon Musk’s X Corp. seen taking down giant glowing sign in San Francisco
• America’s first new nuclear reactor in nearly seven years starts operations
• Quest Diagnostics launches first at-home blood test to assess risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease
• Market Extra: Regional bank ETF’s massive July jump puts it on pace for strongest month since 2016 after rough ride in 2023

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 177 points or 0.50%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.90%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.99%,
• Gold $1,959 up $12.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.35,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.957% down 0.055 points,
• USD Index $101.64 down $0.14,
• Bitcoin $29,316 down $146,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -5 to 664 Canada +6 to 193

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real personal consumption expenditure growth in June 2023 was 2.4% year-over-year – up from 2.2% YoY in May 2023. Real disposable personal income growth was 4.7% – up from 4.1% in May. Inflation (as measured by the PCE Price Index) was 3.0% year-over-year – down from 3.8% in May. The bottom line is that the economy appears to be accelerating with inflation moderating going into 3Q2023 where some pundits are predicting a recession start. I have yet to see any data or trends which suggest a recession is possible.

The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month, soaring 11% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since October 2021. All components of the index improved considerably, led by a 18% surge in long-term business conditions and 14% increase in short-run business conditions. Overall, the sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets. However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell. This group anticipates that inflation and their income prospects will both worsen in the year ahead, highlighting the heterogeneity of views across the population.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• New Catalyst Synthesis Paves The Way For Next-Gen Lithium-Air Batteries
• Imperial Oil Earnings Plummet By 72% On Turnaround, Lower Prices
• U.S. Drilling Dips Slightly Amid Rising Oil Prices
• 500 EVs Among The 3000 Cars On Burning Ship Off Dutch Coast
• Rising Gasoline Prices Boost Inflation Concerns
• Bullish Momentum Builds As Oil Markets Tighten
• Hopes Of A ‘Soft Landing’ Fuel Bullish Sentiment
• S&P 500 closes nearly 1% higher on softening inflation data, nabs 3rd week of gains: Live updates
• As Ford loses billions on EVs, the company embraces hybrids
• Key Fed inflation rate falls to lowest annual level in nearly 2 years
• Pentagon Approves Hazard Pay For US Troops In Ukraine, Paving Way For Possible Expanded Presence

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 237 points or 0.67%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.55%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.64%,
• Gold $1,944 down $26.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.010% up 0.159 points,
• USD Index $101.79 up $0.91,
• Bitcoin $29,162 down $285,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods increased again in June 2023 to 10.5% year-over-year compared to 9.25% last month. What other sources of this data may not be telling you is that the majority of the recent increases are from the aircraft sector. Still, durable goods appear to be doing better than other economic sectors. No sign of a recession in this data set.

According to CoreLogic, for the month of May, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due. The rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020. No sign of recession in this data set.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023 according to the “advance” estimate. The implicit price deflator – which measures inflation in the GDP – has fallen to 3.6% year-over-year. Advance estimates historically can be wild guesses – but my take is that the next two estimates of 2Q2023 GDP will be stronger as the economy seems to be modestly accelerating. Inflation is a different issue as I expect the deceleration in inflation to begin to be more modest as the year-over-year growth will be compared to the decreasing inflation which began one year ago.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity continued to decline in July 2023, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. The manufacturing sector overall remains in a recession.

Pending Home Sales fell by 15.6% year-over-year which is an improvement. Pending home sales should begin to improve as it will now be compared to bad data from a year ago.

In the week ending July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 233,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 237,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Cobalt Prices Rally As Battery Demand Booms
• New Catalyst Efficiently Cleans Methane From Natural Gas Exhaust
• Oil Ignores Fed Hike As WTI Hits $80
• Largest U.S. Power Grid Declares Emergency Alert
• Global Coal Demand To Stay At Record-High Levels In 2023
• Dow loses more than 200 points Thursday to snap historic 13-day rally: Live updates
• Bud Light maker Anheuser-Busch to lay off hundreds of corporate staff
• SpaceX aims to break a 56-year rocket record with back-to-back launches
• Bond Report: 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end above 4% after U.S. GDP, report on BOJ

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.