Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 512 points or 1.40%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.38%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.37%,
• Gold $2,036 up $42.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.14,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.018% down 0.188 points,
• USD Index $102.92 down $0.950,
• Bitcoin $42,787 up $1,480 ( 3.56% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 0.9% for the 12 months ending in November 2023 (blue line on the graph below) – down from 1.2% last month. It is Final demand services (green line) which is continuing to elevate the Producer Price Index. However overall, producer prices are not driving inflation.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent – and stated only “Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated”. There was little change in this FOMC meeting statement compared to the previous meeting statement.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Forecast Series Of Cuts In 2024
• Tesla Recalls 2 Million Vehicles in U.S. over Autopilot Safety Flaw
• U.S. Warship Takes Down Houthi Drone After Attack On Tanker
• Oil Inches Up on Crude Inventory Draw
• OPEC Production Falls While U.S. Oil Output Hits New High
• Fed holds rates steady, indicates three cuts coming in 2024
• Dow rallies more than 500 points to record, closes above 37,000 for the first time: Live updates
• 10-year Treasury yield drops to lowest level since August as Fed forecasts easing rates 3 times next year
• SpaceX valuation climbs to $180 billion
• The Federal Reserve’s period of rate hikes may be over. Here’s why consumers are still reeling
• Federal Reserve signals interest rate cuts next year
• Bond Report: Treasury yields plummet after Fed pencils in 2024 rate cuts
• Market Snapshot: Dow Jones heads for record close after Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, signals pivot ahead

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 173 points or 0.48%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.70%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.46%,
• Gold $1,995 up $1.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $2.63,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.208% down 0.031 points,
• USD Index $103.80 down $0.300,
• Bitcoin $41,223 up $379 ( 0.93% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.1 point in November to 90.6, which marks the 23^rd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from October but 10 points lower than this time last year. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

Job openings on Main Street remain elevated as the economy saw a strong third quarter. However, even with the growing economy, small business owners have not seen a strong wave of workers to fill their open positions. Inflation also continues to be an issue among small businesses.

The November 2023 Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) all items index over the last 12 months increased 3.1 percent before seasonal adjustment – marginally down from the 3.2% YoY increase last month. The index for shelter continued to rise in November, offsetting a decline in the gasoline index. The all items less food and energy index rise was unchanged at 4.0% YoY. The question becomes – is inflation under control enough for the Federal Reserve to stop raising the federal funds rate?  IMO, only a slowing economy moderates inflation – so the real question is whether the economy is slowing. Our economic forecast projects a slowing economy which would allow the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Sinks to 6 Month Low As Inflation Fears Persist
• How Greenwashing Could Undermine Hydrogen’s Future
• OPEC May May Need 5-Year Plan To Prevent Oil Price Collapse
• Interest Rate Concerns Keep Oil Prices Under Pressure
• COP28 Headed for ‘Complete Failure’ as Fossil Fuel Debate Rages
• Houthis Attack Another Vessel in the Red Sea
• Fed to start cutting rates midyear in 2024 with high chance of soft landing, CNBC Fed survey finds
• Inflation slowed to a 3.1% annual rate in November
• Citadel Returning $7 Billion In Profits To Investors After 15% Return In 2023

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 157 points or 0.43%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.20%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.39%,
• Gold $1997 down $18,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $0.24,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.235% unchanged,
• USD index $104.08 up $0.07,
• Bitcoin $40,825 up $2,968

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• OPEC+ Output Cuts May Have No Effect Unless Extended Further
• The Battle for Australia’s Lithium Reserves
• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Tumble 10% on Mild Weather
• Is China Undermining Putin’s Plan for Higher Oil Prices?
• Chinese Demand for Saudi Crude Slumps to 5-Month Low
• UAW files unfair labor practice charges against Hyundai, Honda and VW, accusing them of union busting
• “This Is The Big Fight!” Bitcoin Battered As Sen. Warren Unveils Bill To “Crack Down” On Crypto
• The Price Of Rent Surged 27 Straight Months. Is Relief Finally Coming?
• Dow slightly higher as investors await inflation data and Fed policy meeting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 130 points or 0.36%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.45%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.41%,
• Gold $2,019 down $27.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.86,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.233% up 0.104 points,
• USD Index $103.98 up $0.440,
• Bitcoin $44,384 up $1,125 ( 2.60% )
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 626 Canada +2 to 194

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 199,000 in November 2023, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.7 percent. Job gains occurred in healthcare (almost half of the new jobs were in healthcare) and government (1/4 of new jobs were in government). Employment also increased in manufacturing, reflecting the return of workers from a strike. Employment in retail trade declined significantly. The household survey shows an additional 747,000 were employed in November than October – and this is well over 3 times more than the headline 199,000 in the establishment survey.

The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment soared 13% in December 2023, erasing all declines from the previous four months, primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation. Sentiment is now about 39% above the all-time low measured in June of 2022 but still well below pre-pandemic levels. All five index components rose this month, led by surges of over 24% for both the short and long-run outlook for business conditions. There was a broad consensus of improved sentiment across age, income, education, geography, and political identification. A growing share of consumers—about 14%—spontaneously mentioned the potential impact of next year’s elections. Sentiment for these consumers appears to incorporate expectations that the elections will likely yield results favorable to the economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• More U.S. Diesel Headed To Europe In December
• Oil Rebounds as DOE Looks To Buy 3 Million Barrels For SPR In March
• Oil Rig Count Sees Small Loss As WTI Recovers To $70
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue Falling as Futures Hit Two-Year Low
• China’s Oil Demand Growth Is Set for a Significant Slowdown in 2024
• The runway is getting clearer, but the U.S. economy still isn’t assured of a soft landing
• S&P 500 notches new high for 2023 Friday, on six-week hot streak after solid economic data: Live updates
• 10-year Treasury yield jumps as unemployment rate unexpectedly declines
• U.S. payrolls rose 199,000 in November, unemployment rate falls to 3.7%
• Cryptos Jump, Commodities Dump, & Yield-Curve Slumps In ‘Goldilocks’ Week
• The Conversation: China is using internet warfare to disrupt U.S. and Western politics. Here’s what to watch for.

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 63 points or 0.17%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.37%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.80%,
• Gold $2,046 down $1.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.30,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.146% up 0.023 points,
• USD Index $103.61 down $0.550,
• Bitcoin $43,260 down $529 ( 1.21% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

October 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 0.4% from the revised October 2022 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 2.3% from the revised October 2022 level. The October inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.34. The October 2022 ratio was 1.37. As I have been saying, I know the wholesaling sector is in flux – and IMO you cannot say the sector is contracting as the scope is different. The sales-to-inventory levels (green line on the graph below) do not indicate an inventory build which historically has been an indicator of a pending recession.

U.S.-based employers announced 45,510 job cuts in November 2023, a 24% increase from the 36,836 cuts >announced one month prior. It is 41% lower than the 76,835 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, and marks the first time cuts were lower than the corresponding month a year ago since July. So far this year, companies have announced plans to cut 686,860 jobs, a 115% increase from the 320,173 cuts announced in the same period last year. It is the highest January-November total since 2020, when 2,227,725 cuts were recorded. Andrew Challenger, labor expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

The job market is loosening, and employers are not as quick to hire. The labor market appears to be stabilizing with a more normal churn, though we expect to continue to see layoffs going into the New Year.

In the week ending December 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 220,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 220,000 to 220,250.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down three points from October. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 24%. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners decreased one point to 8%, five points below the highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Despite the slight decline in November, small business job openings remain stuck in historical territory. For owners across the country, there are not enough workers to maintain current operations for small businesses, much less chase new opportunities. As we near the end of the year, small business owners continue to raise compensation in order to attract and retain qualified employees.

In October 2023, the Federal Reserve’s headline consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.2 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2.7 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 0.7 percent. I hate interpreting the volatile extrapolation of a single month’s change – and prefer to look at year-over-year change. The year-over-year growth in consumer credit was 3.1% which is the blue line on the graph below (1.6% inflation-adjusted – red line on the graph below). The bottom line is that consumer credit growth is slowing – and this is usually associated with a slowing economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Global Airlines To See Record Revenues This Year
• New Supercrystals Set World Record for Solar Hydrogen Production
• U.S. Natural Gas Inventories Highest at Winter’s Start Since 2020
• U.S. Cements Position as Energy Superpower with Soaring Oil Exports
• Nasdaq closes 1% higher, Dow and S&P 500 snap 3-day losing streak: Live updates
• Biden administration asserts power to seize drug patents in move to slash high prices
• Google shares pop 5% after company announces Gemini AI model
• PayPal shares slide after Amazon drops Venmo as payment option
• Consumer Credit Expansion Slowed Dramatically In October
• Predictably, The Rush To Electric Cars Is Imploding

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 70 points or 0.19%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.39%,
• Gold $2,044 up $7.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $3.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.121% down 0.050 points,
• USD Index $104.19 up $0.140,
• Bitcoin $43,841 up $89 ( 0.20% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private sector employment increased by 103,000 jobs in November 2023 and annual pay was up 5.6 percent year-over-year, according to the November ADP® National Employment Report. This increase is relatively weak and is lower than the gains necessary for new entrants to the workforce. The graph below compares ADP with BLS jobs growth. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP stated:

Restaurants and hotels were the biggest job creators during the post-pandemic recovery. But that boost is behind us, and the return to trend in leisure and hospitality suggests the economy as a whole will see more moderate hiring and wage growth in 2024.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.4% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2023, whilst unit labor costs are up 1.6% year-over-year. These are revised numbers.

Inflation-adjusted October 2023 exports were up 6.2% year-over-year whilst imports were down 1.2% year-over-year. The trade deficit is improving and was down 18.0% year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What’s Holding BackThe Battery Storage Boom In Europe?
• Crude Oil Tanks Nearly 4% as US Output Overshadows OPEC
• World Report Shows Nuclear Energy Production Fell by 4% Last Year
• Oil Falls on Mixed Inventory Changes in Crude, Fuels
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall to 11-Month Low
• Jamie Dimon lashes out against crypto: ‘If I was the government, I’d close it down’
• Dow, S&P 500 slide for a third straight day as recent rally falters: Live updates
• Here’s what chart analysts say about bitcoin’s path from here to $50,000
• Google launches its largest and ‘most capable’ AI model, Gemini

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 80 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.31%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.06%,
• Gold $2037 down $5.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.67,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.178% down 0.108 points,
• USD index $103.96 up $0.25,
• Bitcoin $43,749 up $2,001

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. single-family home prices increased by 4.7% year over year in September, the 141^st straight month of annual appreciation. CoreLogic projects that annual home price growth will relax to 2.9% by October 2024.

The number of job openings decreased to 8.7 million on the last business day of October 2023. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.6 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.6 million) changed little. Generally speaking, as the number of job openings decline – so does employment gains. So one would logically expect lower employment gains this week as the BLS releases its November employment data.

In November 2023, the Services PMI^® registered 52.7 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than October’s reading of 51.8 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 55.1 percent; a 1-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 54.1 percent in October. A reading below 55% indicates a weak economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What Peak Demand for Fossil Fuels Will Look Like
• New Technology May Reduce Battery Fires
• Tesla Set To Break Deliveries Record In China
• European Commission To Delay EV Tariffs By Years
• Green Energy Giants to Invest $16 Billion in Offshore Wind and Hydrogen
• Elon Musk’s AI startup — X.AI — files to raise $1 billion in fresh capital
• Goldman breaks down the laggard trade and gives its comeback picks for first quarter 2024
• Bitcoin surges to $44,000 for the first time since April 2022: CNBC Crypto World
• Pentagon Chief Slams US Non-Interventionists As Weakening America

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 41 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.84%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.54%,
• Gold $2048 down $42,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.76,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.261% up 0.037 points,
• USD index $103.64 up $0.37,
• Bitcoin $41,882 up $1,796

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured goods in October 2023 are down 1.4% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). This compares favorably with the Federal Reserve’s manufacturing data which has manufacturing down 1.7% year-over-year (green line on the graph below). Manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Why Diesel Usually Costs More Than Gasoline
• The Minerals That China, the EU, and the US Deem Critical to National Security
• Is This The Technical Limit for Refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
• How China And The U.S. Were Both Key To OPEC+’s Bearish Oil Supply Cuts
• COP28 President: There Is ‘No Science’ Behind Calls for Fossil Fuel Phase-Out
• Swiss bank Banque Pictet admits hiding $5.6 billion of Americans’ money from IRS
• White House says U.S. funding about to run out; Ukraine to probe apparent shooting of two unarmed soldiers by Russian forces
• Regulators Hope You Don’t Notice The Massive Hidden Losses In The Banking System
• Nvidia Insiders File Paperwork To Dump 370,000 Shares

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 294 points or 0.82%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.55%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.59%,
• Gold $2,090 up $32.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $1.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.217% down 0.135 points,
• USD Index $103.22 down $0.280,
• Bitcoin $38,804 up $1,079 ( 2.86% ),
• Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count up 3 to 625

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during October 2023 was 10.7% above October 2022 (10.0% inflation-adjusted). During the first ten months of this year, construction spending was 5.6% above the same period in 2022. Construction definitely is in a growth spurt.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.7% in November 2021, unchanged from the 46.7% recorded in October. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 48.7 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 48.3%.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Adds Three More Shippers to Russian Sanction List over Oil Price Cap
• U.S. Oil Drillers See More Gains As OPEC+ Agrees to Cut Production
• Guyana on Edge Amid Rumors of a Venezuelan Invasion
• Oil Markets Confused and Underwhelmed by OPEC+ Cuts
• Fed Chair Powell calls talk of cutting rates ‘premature’ and says more hikes could happen
• S&P 500 rises on Friday to close at 2023 high: Live updates
• Bitcoin hits highest level since May 2022 to kick off December: CNBC Crypto World
• Market Snapshot: Dow tops 36,000 after remarks by Fed’s Powell, S&P 500 heads for highest close of 2023
• Futures Movers: Oil prices settle at a 2-week low as OPEC+ decision disappoints

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 520 points or 1.47%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.38%,
• Gold $2036 down $11,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $2,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.344% up 0.073 points,
• USD index $103.51 up $0.75,
• Bitcoin $37,740 down $85

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Disposable personal income (DPI) in October 2023, personal income less personal current taxes, increased to 3.9% year-over-year (from 3.8% in October 2022) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) remained steady at 2.2% rise year-over-year [all percentages inflation adjusted]. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index declined from 3.4% year-over-year last month to 3.0% in October 2023. In plain English, consumer spending and consumer income has essentially flatlined over the last 3 months which translates to a steady GDP growth. Inflation, on the other hand, had a significant improvement this month which may keep future federal funds increases at bay.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – dropped 1.5% to 71.4 in October 2023, the lowest number since the index was originated in 2001. Year over year, pending transactions declined 8.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated:

During October, mortgage rates were at their highest, and contract signings for existing homes were at their lowest in more than 20 years. Recent weeks’ successive declines in mortgage rates will help qualify more home buyers, but limited housing inventory is significantly preventing housing demand from fully being satisfied. Multiple offers, of course, yield only one winner, with the rest left to continue their search.

In the week ending November 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 220,000, a decrease of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 220,000 to 220,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Last 6 Months Have Been Devastating For U.S. Clean Energy Stocks
• Oil Prices Retreat As OPEC+ Cuts Another 684KBPD, Brazil Joins OPEC+
• The First-Ever Enhanced Geothermal Plant in the United States
• Russia’s Biggest Oil and Gas Exporters See Revenues Slump by 41%
• Consumer Reports: EVs Are Less Reliable Than Gasoline Cars
• Now at a new 2023 high, the Dow is approaching a record. These stocks could push it over the top
• Money Laundering Expert Raised Alarm Over “Unusual” Chinese Payments To Hunter Biden
• Tesla Hosts ‘Biggest Event On Earth This Year’ To Launch Cybertruck
• Bank of America, Wells Fargo lead gains in big-bank stocks to add to November’s win

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.