Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 164 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.16%,
• Gold $1,963 down $3.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.70,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.539% up 0.098 points,
• USD Index $10.43 up $0.380,
• Bitcoin $37,566 up $2,266,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.3% year-over-year in October 2013 – down from 2.1% in September (blue line in the graph below). Services (green line on the graph below) that comprise 67% of final demand declined to 2.6% growth year-over-year but goods (green line on the graph below) have returned to deflation.

Retail sales remain sluggish with U.S. retail and food services sales for October 2023 up 2.5% above October 2022 – 1.2% inflation-adjusted (down from 1.8% year-over-year last month). This is a significant sign of economic slowing with significant declines in home furnishing, building materials, gas stations, sporting goods, and department stores. Interestingly, food store expenditures increased only 0.9% when yesterday’s consumer price index shows inflation was 3.3% – this means people are buying less food and/or buying hamburger instead of steak (this is a sign of household economic stress).

The November 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey‘s index grew modestly with the headline general business conditions index climbing fourteen points to 9.1. New orders remain in negative territory. I would not bet the farm on the relative strength or weakness of the regional Fed surveys.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Green Ammonia Breakthrough to Transform Fuel and Fertilizer Industries
• As Oil Prices Fall, Russia To Slash Crude Export Duties
• Top German Court Voids $65 Billion of Government Climate Funding
• Kuwait Working to Restart Mega Refinery After Sudden Halt
• Target CEO claims customers are saying ‘a big thank you’ for locking up merchandise
• The market thinks the Fed is going to start cutting rates aggressively. Investors could be in for a letdown
• Dow adds more than 150 points to clinch fourth winning day, fueled by cooling inflation data: Live updates
• Microsoft is fine avoiding China as U.S. considers national security implications, CEO Satya Nadella says
• Trump’s Truth Social Announces Merger ‘Milestone’ As Filings Show $73 Million Loss
• Intel board member buys $2.5 million in stock — and has a ‘solid’ track record
• Investors are thrilled inflation is down. Consumers aren’t so happy. Here’s why.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 490 points or 1.43%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.37%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.91%,
• Gold $1966 up $17,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.455% down 0.178 points,
• USD index $104.08 up $0.08,
• Bitcoin $31,177 down $1.55

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined from 3.7% year-over-year to 3.2% year-over-year. This decline was a surprise to me – and was driven by a significant decline in gasoline prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is down 4.1% on 30 October 2023 year-over-year. I believed oil prices would rise for the rest of the year. The decline in inflation year-over-year is positive news for the markets as THEY believe it signals the Federal Reserve that inflation is coming under control – and no further federal funds rate increases are needed.

The NFIB Optimism Index decreased 0.1 points in October 2023 to 90.7, marking the 22^nd month below the 50-year average. The last time the Optimism Index was at or above the average was December 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The October data shows that small businesses are still recovering, and owners are not optimistic about better business conditions. Small business owners are not growing their inventories as labor and energy costs are not falling, making it a gloomy outlook for the remainder of the year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Israel’s Natural Gas Flow To Egypt To Return To Normal Next Week
• Aluminum Prices Struggle As Demand Dwindles
• Russia’s Oil Export Revenue Slips In October
• The U.S. Just Recorded Its Highest Oil Production Month In History
• Russia Claims It Will Continue To Adapt To Oil Sanctions
• S&P 500 notches best day since April, Dow leaps nearly 500 points on soft inflation report: Live updates
• Cooler monthly inflation report pushes mortgage rates even lower
• Stocks Soar, Yields And Dollar Crash As Fed’s Tightening Cycle Dies, Countdown To Cuts Begins
• Google sends a third of Safari ad revenue to Apple

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 55 points or 0.16%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.22%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.08%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,951 up $12.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $1.34,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.632% up 0.004 points,
• USD Index $105.66 down $0.210,
• Bitcoin $36,828 down $546,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Fourth Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters now shows the outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2023 and 1.7 percent in 2024. These annual projections are 0.3 and 0.4 percentage point higher than the estimates in the previous survey.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Surprising Scarcity Of Suitable Sand
• NASA’s Breakthrough In Battery Tech Paves Way For Electric Aviation
• Chinese Bitcoin Mining Operations Raise U.S. National Security Alarm
• Goldman Sachs Sees 31% Returns For Energy Over 12 Months
• Baker Hughes: Geopolitical Risks Are At The Highest Since 1973 Oil Embargo
• Moody’s warning on the massive U.S. debt burden has turned into a nonevent
• Spot bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC is approaching, experts say. What that means for investors
• Market Snapshot: Dow Jones edges higher as inflation data looms

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 391 points or 1.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.05%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.56%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,940 down $29.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.55,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.620% down 0.010 points,
• USD Index $105.80 down $0.110,
• Bitcoin $37,287 up 2.00%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 616 Canada +3 to 199

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

University of Michigan consumer sentiment slipped for the fourth straight month, falling 5% in November 2023. While current and expected personal finances both improved modestly this month, the long-run economic outlook slid 12%, in part due to growing concerns about the negative effects of high-interest rates. Ongoing wars in Gaza and Ukraine weighed on many consumers as well. Overall, lower-income consumers and younger consumers exhibited the strongest declines in sentiment. In contrast, the sentiment of the top tercile of stockholders improved 10%, reflecting the recent strengthening in equity markets.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Germany To Bail Out Siemens’ Struggling Wind Turbine Division
• Plug Power Crashes After ‘Going Concern’ Warning
• U.S. Oil Rigs Continue To Fall
• Maine Voters Reject State Takeover Of Private Utilities Companies
• U.S. Space Force Partners With Elon Musk To Launch Mysterious X-37B Space Plane
• Swedish Union Blocks Tesla Imports As Labor Dispute Escalates
• Dow leaps nearly 400 points Friday, major averages notch a second week of gains: Live updates
• Fed’s Mary Daly says it’s ‘too early to declare victory’ on inflation
• Patients are lining up for $2,500 full-body MRI scans that can detect cancer early
• Iran Warns Of ‘Inevitable Expansion’ Of War After IDF Conducts Flag-Raising Ceremony In Gaza
• Crypto: Bitcoin could reach $150,000 in 2025 during new bull cycle, says AllianceBernstein
• Futures Movers: Oil tallies a third straight weekly fall, pressured by demand worries and a potential supply surplus

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 220 points or 0.65%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.94%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.81%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,964 up $5.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $0.26,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.634% up 0.126 points,
• USD Index $105.95 up $0.350,
• Bitcoin $36,560 up 2.64%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In the week ending November 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 210,000 to 210,750.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Still On The Auction Block, Citgo Sees 19% Jump In Q3 Net Profit
• Egypt Can’t Ramp Up LNG Supply To Europe Due To The Hamas-Israel War
• Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Blames Speculators For Oil Price Plunge
• Shell Sues Greenpeace For Boarding Oil Production Vessel
• Powell says Fed is ‘not confident’ it has done enough to bring inflation down
• S&P 500 snaps 8-day winning streak, Dow closes 200 points lower as bond yields rise: Live updates
• IRS announces new income tax brackets for 2024
• SEC chair Gary Gensler says an FTX reboot could happen if it follows the law: CNBC Crypto World
• Stocks Tumble, Yield Surge After Catastrophic 30Y Auction Stops With Biggest Tail On Record As Foreign Demand Craters
• TaxWatch: Standard deductions for 2024 taxes will jump 5.4% due to inflation, IRS numbers show
• Futures Movers: Oil ends higher after 2-day drop to nearly 4-month lows

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 40 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.08%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.10%,
• Gold $1,955 down $18.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.70,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.515% down 0.056 points,
• USD Index $105.53 down $0.01,
• Bitcoin $35,616 down 0.51%,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

September 2023 year-over-year unadjusted sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.7% from the revised September 2022 level (down 7.1% year-over-year inflation-adjusted). Total inventories were down 1.2% from the revised September 2022 level. The September inventories/sales ratio was 1.33 (blue line on the graph below). The September 2022 ratio was 1.36. Obviously these are not good numbers but this sector is changing and the bad numbers may have no meaning.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Steel Prices Rise As Supply Tightens
• UK Dishes Out More Sanctions On Russia’s Oil, Gold Players
• Barclays Slashes $4 Off Brent Crude Oil Forecast For 2024
• Beyond EVs: Dual-Ion Battery Tech Takes A Leap
• Gold Retreats from $2,000 Mark As Economic Worries Fade
• S&P 500 is flat Wednesday, struggles to build on longest winning streak since 2021: Live updates
• Gambino family Mafia crackdown: 16 arrests by New York feds and Italian authorities
• Caesars reaches deal with Las Vegas union to avoid strike
• The Interest Rate Shock Will Blow Up The Government’s Ponzi Game
• Rickards: Why’s The Dollar So Darn Strong?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 57 points or 0.17%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.09%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
• Gold $1976 down $13.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $3.35,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.577% down 0.083 points,
• USD index $105.55 up $0.33,
• Bitcoin $35,658 up $598

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The goods and services deficit was $61.5 billion in September, up $2.9 billion from $58.7 billion in August, revised. September exports were up 4.6% year-over-year inflation-adjusted. September imports were down 0.9% year-over-year inflation-adjusted. The bottom line is that the deficit has been moderation for a year-and-a-half, imports have been declining, while exports have been growing. Economically, it appears the global economy appears to continue growing whilst declining imports generally signal a moderation of US economic growth.

According to the Federal Reserve’s Consumer Credit G-19 release:

Consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 0.4 percent during the third quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 8.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent. In September, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 2.2 percent.

I extremely dislike the way the Fed headlines consumer credit – as the month-over-month change is too volatile and is misleading. Using their own data, consumer credit expanded 3.5% year-over-year (1.6% year-over-year inflation-adjusted – red line on the graph below). Non-revolving credit expanded at 1.5% year-over-year and revolving credit (mostly credit cards) is up 10.3% year-over-year. No question consumer credit growth is slowing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• WTO Ruling Reignites U.S.-China Trade Spat
• Fed Raises Interest Rates By Half Percentage Point
• Fed interest rate hike sends business loans to steepest cost since 2007, breaking 10% sticker shock level
• Another Big Reversal FOMC Day: Markets Call Hawkish Fed’s Bluff
• Powell Opens The Door To Higher Inflation Target “As Part Of A Longer-Term Project”
• Deportations Plunge Under Biden In US Interior: Data
• Fed hikes rates again and warns of more rises

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 35 points or 0.10%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.18%,
• Gold $1,986 down $13.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.38,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.649% up 0.091 points,
• USD Index $105.25 down $0.023,
• Bitcoin $35,027 down 0.03%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iraq’s New Oil Law Highlights The West’s Fading Middle East Influence
• American Refiners To Lower Utilization Rates As Gasoline Demand Cools
• Venezuela In Talks With Oilfield Services Firms To Revive Oil Production
• Microsoft-backed OpenAI announces GPT-4 Turbo, its most powerful AI yet
• Trump rails against judge, AG’s office during testimony in $250 million fraud trial
• Nasdaq closes higher Monday to notch longest winning streak since January: Live updates
• Goldman says this biotech could become a global cell therapy leader, has nearly 40% upside
• Bosch, SAP and others back Europe’s answer to OpenAI with $500 million of fresh funds
• Housing affordability hits a 39-year low. ‘It’s fair to expect prices to weaken,’ expert says.
• Economic Report: Fed loan-officer survey finds banks continue to tighten loan standards

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 222 points or 0.66%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.38%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.94%,
• Gold $1,999 up $5.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $1.49,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.570% down 0.099 points,
• USD Index $105.11 down $1.020,
• Bitcoin $34,492 down 1.20%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -7 to 618 Canada unchanged at 196

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment in the establishment survey increased by 150,000 in October 2023, and the unemployment rate (determined by the household survey) changed little to 3.9%. An employment gain of 150,000 is generally considered the minimum employment growth needed to support population growth. Job gains occurred in health care, government, and social assistance. Employment declined by 33,200 in manufacturing due to strike activity which is over now – so the real employment growth of the establishment survey should be +183,200. BUT the household survey says employment declined by 348,000 in October. This is a significant disconnect between the household and establishment surveys – and quite honestly, both numbers should be considered suspect. As far as the unemployment rate is concerned – the household survey says an additional 146,000 people were considered unemployed – and this is completely disconnected from the weekly BLS initial unemployment report which shows only 100,000 unemployment growth in October. Stepping back by analyzing year-over-year changes, regardless of data-gathering issues this month, employment growth continues to trend lower. The bigger surprise is that employment growth was 1.9% year-over-year (red line on the graph below) whilst weekly hours worked only gained 0.9% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). The weak growth of hours worked suggests a very soft labor market.

In October 2023, the ISM Services PMI registered 51.8%, 1.8 percentage points lower than the September reading of 53.6 percent. The Business Activity Index registered 54.1%, a 4.7-percentage point decrease compared to the reading of 58.8% in September. The bottom line here is that any number under 55% COULD be indicative of an impending recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Canada’s Trans Mountain Pipeline Faces New Delays
• U.S. Rig Count Takes A Dive
• Copper’s Shifting Significance: From Economic Health To Green Energy
• Solar Stocks Shaken By High Interest Rates And Supply Chain Issues
• Dow pops more than 200 points on Friday to cap the best week for stocks so far this year: Live updates
• UAW has Tesla, Toyota in its sights after contract wins at Detroit automakers
• Wall Street will try to maintain momentum next week after a strong start to November
• The Party’s Over: Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 2.3% To 1.2%
• Maersk cuts 10,000 jobs as shipping demand falls
• Earnings Results: DoorDash shares rally after earnings beat, helped by expansion beyond restaurants

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 565 points or 1.70%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.78%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.89%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
• Gold $1,992 up $4.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.98,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.672% down 0.119 points,
• USD Index $106.14 down $0.750,
• Bitcoin $35,016 up $450,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In October 2023, 43% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 23%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

The labor market has not eased up much on Main Street. Labor demand is still strong and small business owners are working hard to maintain competitive compensation to retain workers and fill critical open positions. Labor quality is still a top problem among small businesses.

Preliminary nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.2% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2023.  On the other hand, unit labor costs increased 1.9% year-over-year. I am not a believer in the methodology used – and just passing along the information.

In the week ending October 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 210,000, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 207,500 to 208,000.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Rare Earth Prices Stabilize As Global Production Dynamics Shift
• U.S. Coal Exports To Europe Soar Despite Energy Transition
• New Roofing Materials Offer An Eco-Friendly Answer To Air Conditioning
• Exxon Completes $4.9 Billion Denbury Acquisition
• Europe’s Wind Energy Giants Brace For Massive Losses And Writedowns
• Dow jumps more than 550 points for best day since June as bond yields recede: Live updates
• Jeff Bezos urged Amazon to flood search results with junk ads, FTC alleges
• Why Target Date Funds Fail Investors: A $3 Trillion Delusion
• The Party’s Over: Atlanta Fed Slashes Q4 GDP Estimate From 2.3% To 1.2%
• The Fed: Fed maintains freeze on interest rates as it fine-tunes fight against inflation

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.