Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 48 points or 0.13%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.32%,
- S&P 500 closed up 0.13%,
- Gold $2,036 down $4.10,
- WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.95,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.319% up 0.044 points,
- USD index $103.99 down $0.09,
- Bitcoin $50,915 down $1,020 (2.27%),
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee for January 30–31, 2024 were issued today, and the highlights are summarized below:
Participants observed that the unexpected strength in real GDP growth in the fourth quarter reflected stronger-than-expected net exports and inventory investment, which tend to be volatile and may carry little signal for future growth. Still, consumption continued to grow at a solid pace. In addition to strong demand, many participants attributed the recent expansion in economic activity to favorable supply developments. Participants noted that the pace of job gains had moderated since early last year but remained strong and that the unemployment rate had remained low. Inflation had eased over the past year but remained elevated.
… Regarding the economic outlook, participants judged that the current stance of monetary policy was restrictive and would continue to put downward pressure on economic activity and inflation. Accordingly, they expected that supply and demand in product and labor markets would continue to move into better balance. In light of the policy restraint in place, along with more favorable inflation data amid ongoing improvements in supply conditions, participants viewed the risks to achieving the Committee’s employment and inflation goals as moving into better balance.
… Participants judged that some of the recent improvement in inflation reflected idiosyncratic movements in a few series. Nevertheless, they viewed that there had been significant progress recently on inflation returning to the Committee’s longer-run goal. Many participants indicated that they expected core nonhousing services inflation to gradually decline further as the labor market continued to move into better balance and wage growth moderated further. Various participants noted that housing services inflation was likely to fall further as the deceleration in rents on new leases continued to pass through to measures of such inflation.
… some participants noted signs that the finances of some households—especially those in the low- and moderate-income categories—were increasingly coming under pressure, which these participants saw as a downside risk to the outlook for consumption. In particular, they pointed to increased usage of credit card revolving balances and buy-now-pay-later services, as well as increased delinquency rates for some types of consumer loans.
… Participants discussed the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. As an upside risk to both inflation and economic activity, participants noted that momentum in aggregate demand may be stronger than currently assessed, especially in light of surprisingly resilient consumer spending last year. Furthermore, several participants mentioned the risk that financial conditions were or could become less restrictive than appropriate, which could add undue momentum to aggregate demand and cause progress on inflation to stall. Participants also noted some other sources of upside risks to inflation, including possible disruptions to supply chains from geopolitical developments, a potential rebound in core goods prices as the effects of supply-side improvements dissipate, or the possibility that wage growth remains elevated.
… Participants viewed maintaining the current stance of policy as appropriate given the incoming data, which indicated that inflation had continued to move toward the Committee’s 2 percent objective and that demand and supply in the labor market had continued to move into better balance.
… participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle. They pointed to the decline in inflation seen during 2023 and to growing signs of demand and supply coming into better balance in product and labor markets as informing that view. Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Geologists Are Predicting a Natural Hydrogen “Gold Rush”
- U.S. Court Ruling Sends Venezuela’s Oil-Backed Bonds into Collapse
- Saudi Arabia Can No Longer Raise Oil Output For Cash
- Canadian Oil and Gas Companies Relinquish All Pacific Coast Permits
- Fed officials expressed caution about lowering rates too quickly at last meeting, minutes show
- Nasdaq Composite closes lower for a 3rd day as investors brace for Nvidia earnings: Live updates
- Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Nvidia, SolarEdge, Teladoc, Wingstop and more
- Mortgage demand takes a massive hit as interest rates cross back over 7%
- FOMC Minutes Show ‘Most Officials Fear Risk Of Cutting Too Quickly’, Staff Mention Financial Stability Issues
- 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end at highest levels since November following ugly 20-year bond auction, Fed minutes
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
