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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Existing-home sales slightly declined in May 2024 as the median sales price climbed to a record high. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – year-over-year, sales waned 2.8%. The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $419,300, the highest price ever recorded and an increase of 5.8% from one year ago ($396,500). I am surprised at the strength of the existing home market given the high mortgage rates which make home ownership unaffordable. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s view:

Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months. Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions. Home prices reaching new highs are creating a wider divide between those owning properties and those who wish to be first-time buyers. The mortgage payment for a typical home today is more than double that of homes purchased before 2020. Still, first-time buyers in the market understand the long-term benefits of owning.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.5 percent in May 2024 to 101.2 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in April. Over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, the LEI fell by 2.0 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.4 percent contraction over the previous six months. Per Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board:

The U.S. LEI fell again in May, driven primarily by a decline in new orders, weak consumer sentiment about future business conditions, and lower building permits. While the Index’s six-month growth rate remained firmly negative, the LEI doesn’t currently signal a recession. We project real GDP growth will slow further to under 1 percent (annualized) over Q2 and Q3 2024, as elevated inflation and high interest rates continue to weigh on consumer spending.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Copper Market Rally Loses Steam as Demand Fails to Keep Up
• India’s Oil Imports Surge: Russia Hits Record High, Saudi Arabia Drops
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Continues to Fall
• South Korea Warns Russia Over Military Pact with North Korea
• Tesla has downsized by at least 14% this year after Elon Musk said layoffs would exceed 10%
• Home prices hit record high in May as sales stall
• S&P 500 closes lower Friday as Nvidia falters, Dow posts best week since May: Live updates
• The stock market is in its longest stretch without a 2% sell-off since the financial crisis
• Record July Fourth Travel Expected As Gas Prices Will “Remain Stable Until After Labor Day” 
• The Unsustainable AI-Driven Lending Boom
• “Everything Is Frozen”: Third-Day Of Cyberattack Leaves 15,000 Auto Dealerships Crippled
• Eli Lilly seeks FDA’s OK to expand Zepbound’s uses to include sleep apnea 

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May 2024 were 9.5% below May 2023. Privately‐owned housing starts is 19.3% below May 2023. Privately‐owned housing completions were 1.0% above May 2023. But instead of looking at percent change – the overall quantity of completions remains at the high end of completions over the last 4 years (green line on the graph below). The real problem is that the number of houses completed and not sold is very elevated and trending up – see the second graph below.

The Philly Fed June 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey‘s general activity edged down 3 points to 1.3  (its lowest reading since January) , while the indexes for shipments and new orders remained negative. The employment index increased but remained negative, continuing to suggest an overall decline in employment levels. Both price indexes continued to indicate overall price increases. Manufacturing remains a weak spot in the economy.

In the week ending June 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 232,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 227,000 to 227,250.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Brent Closes in on $86 Further Buoyed by Jobs Data
• Russia and Ukraine Trade Drone Strikes on Energy Facilities
• Bank Sees U.S. Shale Growing for Another 4 Years
• Volkswagen’s Secret Project: A Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle
• China’s Secret Weapon in the Global Copper War
• S&P 500 closes slightly lower after briefly breaching 5,500, Nvidia takes a breather: Live updates
• OpenAI competitor Anthropic announces its most powerful AI yet
• Nvidia tops the individual stock market values of Germany, France and the UK
• Why buy now, pay later debt could become a problem for the U.S. economy
• Bank opens door for August interest rate cut

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Global Clean Energy Spending Is Set to Exceed $3 Trillion in 2024
• China Powers Petrochemicals with Nuclear Steam in Historical First
• U.S. Steel Prices Pressured by Influx of Vietnamese Imports
• U.S. Supports Angola to Process Critical Minerals
• Demand Pessimism on Oil Market Dissipates
• Will the World See a “Staggering” Oil Supply Glut in 2030?
• India’s New Coal Power Capacity Is Set to Soar in 2024
• Elon Musk softens ‘go f— yourself’ comment as he tries to woo advertisers back to X
• Nvidia and these other megacap stocks are extremely overbought and could be due for a near-term pullback
• Solar is growing faster than any electricity source as Big Tech seeks clean energy for data centers
• Once you hit this credit score ‘you’re good,’ says credit expert—here’s how to get even better
• Dell, SMC, Nvidia To Build Elon Musk’s Grok Supercomputer In Memphis
• Inflation falls to lowest level in almost three years

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

For over two years, inflation adjusted retail sales has been soft – and May 2024 data continues soft retail sales up 2.9% year-0ver-year (up 0.8% inflation adjusted). I use unadjusted data as I only care about year-over-year growth which does not require seasonal adjustments. The economic weakness comes from the following sectors: furniture/home furnishing; building materials; health/personal care stores; and department stores. High growth sectors: miscellaneous stores; and non-store retailers.

Industrial Production increased 0.4% year-over-year with subindices manufacturing up 0.05% year-over-year; utilities up 3.9% year-over-year; and mining down 0.4% year-over-year. Nothing to write home about but manufacturing technically is not in a recession with 0.05% growth. Major weakness was in construction supplies.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• New Report Highlights Rising Investments in Nuclear Arsenals
• Citgo Corpus Christi Oil Refinery Restarts
• Power Outage Could Reduce Norway’s Gas Supply to Europe Again
• Coal India Studies Argentina Lithium Asset Development With U.S. Company
• Oil Prices Bounced Back After Markets Overreacted to the OPEC Announcement
• Oil Prices Bounced Back After Markets Overreacted to the OPEC Announcement
• Nvidia passes Microsoft in market cap to become most valuable public company
• The Fed is ‘playing with fire’ by not cutting rates, says creator of ‘Sahm Rule’ recession indicator
• Major altcoins sink amid broader crypto pullback: CNBC Crypto World
• Treasury yields retreat as weak retail sales raise concerns about consumer
• May retail sales rise 0.1%, weaker than expected
• Boeing’s stock falls as lawmakers blast CEO Calhoun for ‘strip mining’ company for profits

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The New York Fed’s June 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline general business conditions index moved up ten points but remained below zero at -6.0. Values below  zero indicate contraction. New orders held steady, while shipments inched higher. Delivery times shortened somewhat, and supply availability—a new monthly indicator now included in these reports—was little changed. The bottom line is that this survey continues to show that manufacturing in this region continues in a recession.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia Reclaims Its Position as Europe’s Top Gas Supplier
• Crew Abandons Sinking Bulk Carrier In Red Sea After Houthi Attack
• Oil Prices Jump 2% on Improving Demand Outlook
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Up After 3-Week Decline
• Carbon Capture Technology Called a ‘Boondoggle’ for Oil Industry
• Denmark Looks to Curb Dark Fleet Carrying Russian Oil in the Baltic Sea
• Nvidia to get 20% weighting and billions in investor demand, while Apple demoted in major tech fund
• S&P 500 rises to record close on Monday, Dow snaps four-day losing streak: Live updates
• How immigrants are helping keep job growth hot while inflation cools
• 80% of Americans say grocery costs have notably increased since the pandemic started, survey finds

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Livingston Survey is the oldest continuous survey of economists’ expectations that summarizes the forecasts of economists from industry, government, banking, and academia. The Livingston Survey for June 2024 states:

The 23 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2024 than they predicted in the December 2023 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 2.0 percent during the first half of 2024. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2024, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of 1.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2023 survey. Growth is expected to average an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the first half of 2025.

Prices for U.S. imports rose 1.1% for the year ended in May 2024, matching the over-the-year increase in April. The May and April 12-month advances are the largest over-the-year increases since December 2022. Prices for import fuel fell 2.0 percent in May or the gain in import prices would have been larger. Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.6% from May 2023 to May 2024, the first 12-month advance since January 2023. As 15%+ of US consumption is on imported products and services – I would expect an impact to inflation from imports.

The University of Michigan consumer sentiment according to the authors was little changed in June 2024 saying “this month’s reading was a statistically insignificant 3.5 index points below May and within the margin of error. Sentiment is currently about 31% above the trough seen in June 2022 amid the escalation in inflation. Assessments of personal finances dipped, due to modestly rising concerns over high prices as well as weakening incomes. Overall, consumers perceive few changes in the economy from May.”

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Small Banks Face Scrutiny Over Russian War Support at G7
• Canada Poised to Reclaim Top Spot as World’s Largest Uranium Producer
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Sees Further Declines
• “Bitcoin is Exponential Gold”, Says Fidelity’s Director Of Global Macro
• Tesla Shareholders Push Back Against ESG Proposals
• China’s Oil Demand Threatened by LNG Trucks
• Nasdaq Composite ekes out record close, notches a 3% weekly gain: Live updates
• Adobe shares surge 15% for sharpest rally since 2020
• Bitcoin dips into the $65,000 level to end the week: CNBC Crypto World
• Counterfeit Titanium Found In Some Boeing And Airbus Jets
• Treasury yields see biggest two- and three-week declines since December as bonds keep rallying

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Honestly, I am really glad I do the analysis of inflation myself. If you read the vomit spewed by the financial wizards of the mass media you would be convinced inflation is abating. In fact, the way US Census released the Producer Price Index for final demand was also misleading: “The Producer Price Index for final demand declined 0.2 percent in May…”. Because of the convoluted seasonal adjustments, data errors, and other analytic BS – the only way to wash the info is to do a year-over-year analysis which does not require seasonal adjustments and averages out the data errors. The truth is that the PPI inflation is up 2.24% in May 2024 which is down from April’s 2.27% – literally no change in the inflation rate in this level below retail. And the primary reason the PPI did not rise is due to a 7.1% decline in the price for gasoline. Look at the table below which displays the year-over-year inflation changes from May 2023 – do you see where inflation is abating?

Month	Change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadj.)	Change in final demand less foods, energy, and trade from 12mo. ago (unadj.)
2023
May	1.1	2.9
June	0.3	2.9
July	1.1	2.9
Aug.	1.9	2.9
Sept.	1.8	2.9
Oct.	1.1	2.8
Nov.	0.8	2.5
Dec.	1.1	2.7
2024
Jan.	1.0	2.7
Feb.	1.6	2.8
Mar.	1.9	2.9
Apr.	2.3	3.2
May	2.2	3.2

When the Port of Los Angeles is combined with the Port of Long Beach, the two ports handled approximately 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the U.S. These ports release their statistics early – and give us an insight into trade statistics for the entire nation. In May 2023, imports were down 5% year-over-year whilst exports were down 1%. Imports correlate to U.S. consumer spending – and this data is generally saying spending is down. However, before COVID, May was one of the lowest months for container imports. Over the last year – every month has been relatively equal. Therefore, I am challenged to offer an opinion on what this month’s data means – and I will pass this month.

In the week ending June 8, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 227,000, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 222,250.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Automakers Race to Offset the Rise in Copper Prices
• Microsoft: Russian and Chinese State Hackers Pose Growing Threat
• JPMorgan Analysts Cast Doubt on Tesla’s Robotaxi Revenue
• Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Declares a New Industrial Revolution
• Falling Energy Prices Spark Hopes for Fed Rate Cuts
• S&P 500 posts its fourth straight record close, buoyed by cooler inflation data: Live updates
• Trump floats eliminating U.S. income tax and replacing it with tariffs on imports
• Taylor Swift’s Eras Tour shows trigger earthquake readings in Scotland; estimated $98 million economic boost
• FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
• FOMC Preview: From Three Rate Cuts To Two
• Housing demand wanes as buyers bank on rate cut

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.3% year-over-year in May 2024 – down slightly from last month’s 3.4% year-over-year. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.4% over the last 12 months. In looking at the internals, gasoline declined whilst shelter and food increased. Although the CPI marginally declined, it remains a long way from from the Fed’s 2.0% target.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting concluded today with no change to the federal funds rate of 5-1/4 to 5-1/2% as expected. Their statement begins:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been modest further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

The question always remains when will the Fed reduce the federal funds rate. The following shows the FOMC participants’ assessments of what they GUESS the midpoint of target range or target level for the federal funds rate would be over time. This new set of “guesses” is more hawkish (meaning the potential reductions are further in the future). The numbers in the columns represent the number of participants projecting the midpoint of target range or target level. For 2024, 4 participants anticipate NO reduction to the federal funds rate while 7 believe there will be one rate reductions and 8 think there will be two reductions.

Midpoint of target range or target level (Percent)	2024	2025	2026	Longer run
5.500
5.375	4	1
5.250
5.125	7
5.000
4.875	8	1	1
4.750
4.625
4.500
4.375		4
4.250
4.125		9	1
4.000
3.875		2
3.750				1
3.625		1	3	1
3.500				2
3.375			3
3.250
3.125			7	1
3.000				4
2.875		1	2
2.750				3
2.625			1	1
2.500				5
2.375			1	1
2.250

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Inflation in China is Finally Beginning to Stabilize
• 300 New Sanctions for Russia as US Looks to Tighten the Noose
• The New Trucking Trend Transforming Chinese Oil Demand
• Citi Says Oil Could Crash to Sub-$60 Level
• Oil Drops on Inventory Build
• Chinese EV Stocks Tank on Tariff Drama
• Quality Concerns Could Hurt Demand for Trans Mountain Crude on US West Coast
• Fed recap: Chair Powell explains why the central bank isn’t ready yet to cut rates
• Inflation slows in May, with consumer prices up 3.3% from a year ago
• S&P 500 closes above 5,400 for the first time as Fed notes ‘modest’ inflation progress: Live updates
• Top Southwest shareholder signals support for Elliott Management’s activist campaign
• Apple briefly surpasses Microsoft as world’s most valuable company after unveiling AI plans
• FOMC Holds Rates As Expected, Dot-Plot Shifts More Hawkish In 2024
• 2-year Treasury yield has biggest drop since May after cooler CPI data and Fed update

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index reached the highest reading of the year in May at 90.5, a 0.8-point increase but still the 29^th month below the historical average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose nine points to 85, the highest reading since November 2020. Twenty-two percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, unchanged from April and the top business problem among owners. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

The small business sector is responsible for the production of over 40% of GDP and employment, a crucial portion of the economy. But for 29 consecutive months, small business owners have expressed historically low optimism and their views about future business conditions are at the worst levels seen in 50 years. Small business owners need relief as inflation has not eased much on Main Street.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Trade War Concerns Loom Over US and UK Elections
• EIA: U.S. Crude Oil Production to Average 13.2 million bpd in 2024
• 4 Questions About the Future of Electricity
• Stocks Shrug Off EU Elections While Bitcoin, Gold, and Oil Shine
• Volkswagen and Isuzu Chill South Africa’s EV Ambitions
• Jet Fuel Shortage Hits Japan Amid Tourism Boom
• Fed meeting and inflation report both hit Wednesday, and the impact could be huge
• OpenAI ex-employees worry about company’s control over their millions of dollars in shares
• National Amusements stops discussions with Skydance on Paramount deal, sources say
• Cryptocurrencies fall as investors await Fed decision, bitcoin dips under $67,000
• AI is getting very popular among students and teachers, very quickly
• Bitcoin Battered, Bonds Bid, Apple Bounces Back Before Big-Risk Day
• Natural-gas surges over 7% to end at 5-month high on forecasts for extreme heat

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The ADP Research Institute survey asked nearly 35,000 private-sector workers in 18 countries what role they think AI will play in their work over the next few years. A large majority of workers worldwide say artificial intelligence will affect their jobs in the coming years. Honestly, I think that AI will replace many jobs in the near future – except for jobs in the construction, transportation, health, maintenance/repair, and mining industries. And the near future begins now and includes the next two or three years. Tell me this will not radically change the consumer driven economy.

Here are some of headlines we are reading today:

• Texas is Leading U.S. GDP Growth, Fueled by Oil and Energy
• WTI Gains 2.5% On Driving Season Fuel Demand Optimism
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Post Super Rare Double-Digit Weekly Drop
• What’s Next for Copper Markets?
• Goldman Sachs Sees Oil Prices Rising to $86 This Summer
• Here’s everything Apple just announced at WWDC24: Apple Intelligence, Siri with ChatGPT, iOS 18 and more
• S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at fresh records, clinch first winning day in three as Fed decision approaches: Live updates
• Elliott takes $1.9 billion stake in Southwest Airlines, seeks to oust CEO and chair
• GameStop shares slide 12% following Friday’s 40% sell-off
• Home equity is near a record high. Tapping it may be tricky due to high interest rates
• Trump wants IRS to stop taxing workers’ tips, as Americans say tipping is ‘out of control’
• Coffee’s future lies in fancier ingredients and younger consumers, analysts say, as daily consumption dips

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.