Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 244 points or 0.60%, (Closed at 41,198, New Historic high 41.222)
- Nasdaq closed down 2.77%,
- S&P 500 closed down 1.39%,
- Gold $2,464 down $4.10,
- WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $2.10,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.151 down 0.016 points,
- USD index $103.76 up $0.51,
- Bitcoin $64,603 down $471 or 0.72%,
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in June 2024 were 3.1% below June 2023. Privately-owned housing starts in June were 4.4% below June 2023. Privately-owned housing completions in June were 15.5% above June 2023. At first glance you would think there is something wrong with building permits and starts. However, there is a massive quantity of homes under construction – and the industry does not need to put more homes into the pipeline. The bottom line – new homes completed are growing at a good rate.
Industrial production for June 2024 rose 1.6% year-over-year with components manufacturing up 1.1% year-over-year, mining down 0.6% year-over-year, and utilities up 7.9% year-over-year. Capacity utilization moved up to 78.8 percent in June, a rate that is 0.9 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2023) average. This month’s manufacturing significant growth clearly moves manufacturing out of a recession – but I am not too optimistic that manufacturing growth spurt will continue long term.
The Beige Book for July 2024 states:
Economic activity maintained a slight to modest pace of growth in a majority of Districts this reporting cycle. However, while seven Districts reported some level of increase in activity, five noted flat or declining activity—three more than in the prior reporting period. Wages continued to grow at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts, while prices were generally reported to have risen modestly. Household spending was little changed this period according to most District banks. Auto sales varied across Districts this cycle, but some Districts noted that sales were lower due in part to a cyberattack on dealerships and high interest rates. Most Districts saw soft demand for consumer and business loans. Reports on residential and commercial real estate markets varied, but most banks reported only slight changes, if any, in recent weeks. Travel and tourism grew steadily and was on par with seasonal expectations. Agricultural conditions varied in tandem with sporadic droughts across the nation. Districts also reported widely disparate trends in manufacturing activity ranging from brisk downturn to moderate growth. Retail restocking spurred slight growth in transportation activity. Meanwhile, tight capacity in ocean shipping led to a surge in spot rates. Expectations for the future of the economy were for slower growth over the next six months due to uncertainty around the upcoming election, domestic policy, geopolitical conflict, and inflation.
Labor Markets
On balance, employment rose at a slight pace in the most recent reporting period. Most Districts reported employment was flat or up slightly, while a few Districts reported modest employment growth. Several Districts reported declines in employment in the manufacturing sector due to slowdowns in new orders. Skilled-worker availability remained a challenge across all Districts; however, several Districts reported some improvement in labor supply conditions. Additionally, labor turnover was lower, which reduced demand to find new workers. Looking ahead, contacts in several Districts expect to be more selective on who they hire and not backfill all open positions. Wages grew at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. However, several Districts reported some slowing of wage growth due to increased worker availability and less competition for workers.
Prices
Prices increased at a modest pace overall, with a couple Districts noting only slight increases. While consumer spending was generally reported as showing little to no change almost every District mentioned retailers discounting items or price-sensitive consumers only purchasing essentials, trading down in quality, buying fewer items, or shopping around for the best deals. Most Districts noted that input costs were beginning to stabilize; however, Atlanta specifically noted products like copper and electrical supplies have seen a notable increase over this period.
The Beige Book is a Federal Reserve System publication about current economic conditions across the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. It characterizes regional economic conditions and prospects based on a variety of mostly qualitative information, gathered directly from each District’s sources. This months release shows a very modest deterioration from the previous report which agrees with our economic forecast which shows little change in economic conditions.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
