Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 1,034 points or 2.60%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.43%,
• S&P 500 closed down 3.00%,
• Gold $2,453 down $17.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $0.24,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.771 down 0.023 points,
• USD index $102.64 down $0.560,
• Bitcoin $53,467 down $4,471 or 8.03%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

Wall Street experienced a significant sell-off on Monday, driven by mounting concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Key indices saw substantial losses:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,000 points.
• Nasdaq Composite dropped by more than 3.4%.
• S&P 500 declined nearly 3%, marking its worst start to any month since 2002.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” reached its highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic before retreating. Treasury yields also fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 3.8%. The sell-off was exacerbated by a disappointing U.S. jobs report, which heightened fears that the Federal Reserve may have delayed cutting interest rates for too long. Almost 100% of bets are on the central bank to cut rates by 0.5% by its September meeting. Major companies were significantly impacted:

• Apple (AAPL) declined about 5%.
• Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 6%.
• Tesla (TSLA) dropped more than 4%.

Cryptocurrencies also suffered. The sell-off had a global impact, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 experiencing its largest-ever daily loss of over 12% following a surprise interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This led to heavy selling as speculators liquidated their holdings due to the sharp rise in the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. market is heading into a quieter week of data and earnings, with weekly unemployment claims due Thursday expected to draw significant attention

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In July 2024, the Services PMI^® registered 51.4%, 2.6 percentage points higher than June’s figure of 48.8%. For those who read my August 2024 economic forecast, you will KNOW that last month’s 48. 8% was a recessionary flag. July’s reading of 51.4% moves the economy into weak growth. The U.S. is basically a services economy so a negative or weak services datapoint should alert one to the higher possibility of a recession. The economic fundamentals have been weak this entire year – nothing changed this past week except that Wall Street woke up that the economy was weak. At this point, we are forecasting more of the same weakness. Could there be a recession? – possible but not ordained. I see nothing more than a weak economy but when an economy is weak it is not capable of absorbing a black swan event (say a military conflict in the middle east) – the economy is set up for a recession. Personally, I am not hunkering down but just more careful on spending and investing – I have been in this mode since 4Q2023.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Climate Change and Hard Labor: The Rising Toll on Outdoor Workers
• Understanding China’s Weakening Metal Demand
• Germany’s EV Sales Sink 37% as Subsidies End
• Nigeria Loses $1,000 per Barrel of Crude Oil It Exports
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue to Drop
• How Conflict in the Middle East Could Send Oil Prices Soaring
• Woodside Buys U.S. Clean Ammonia Project for $2.35 Billion
• Dow tumbles 1,000 points, S&P 500 posts worst day since 2022 in global market sell-off: Live updates
• $1 trillion wipeout: Market rout punishes megacap tech
• Warren Buffett’s decision to sell stocks and raise record cash before sell-off sends wake-up call
• Bitcoin plunges sharply as recession fears drive global market sell-off: CNBC Crypto World
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Robinhood, Nvidia, Intel and more
• Alphabet Shares Tumble After Losing DoJ Antitrust Suit Over Search
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at lowest level since July 2023 as recession fears linger

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 611 points or 1.51%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.43%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.84%,
• Gold $2,479 down $1.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.41,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.799 down 0.178 points,
• USD index $103.21 down $1.210,
• Bitcoin $62,550 down $2,747 or 4.21%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 586 Canada +8 to 219

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

The US stock market experienced a significant downturn today following the release of the July jobs report, which indicated further cooling in the labor market. This development has intensified concerns about a potential recession and raised questions about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy. Key points from the market reaction:

Economic concerns:

• The weak jobs report has fueled fears of an economic slowdown
• Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may have maintained high interest rates for too long

Interest rate expectations:

• Market forecasts now indicate a higher likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point rate cut in September
• Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling below 4%

Tech sector impact:

• Intel’s stock plummeted by 29% following disappointing guidance and layoff announcements
• Amazon’s shares fell by 12.5% after missing quarterly financial projections

Broader economic indicators:

• Factory orders declined by 3.3%, the largest drop since April 2020
• Manufacturing activity and construction spending were lower than expected

The market reaction reflects growing uncertainty about the economic outlook and concerns that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may be too restrictive, potentially risking a “hard landing” for the economy.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July 2024, and nonfarm payroll employment grew by 114,000 – the second-worst growth this year. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs (see employment change bar chart in second graph below). The household survey (which produces the unemployment rate) shows employment growth of only 67,000 – versus the headline establishment survey’s 114,000 (see red bar on graph below). Further, the primary reason for the significant jump in the unemployment rate is because the household survey added 420,000 people to the workforce – not that a lot of people lost their jobs. Looking at the employment-population ratio which has been worsening since April 2024, it declined this month and remains below the levels seen from 2018 to 2020. Also from the establishment survey, Over the last year – the number of people unemployed has increased 380,000 or 21% year-over-year. To say the economy is stumbling at this point may turn out to be an understatement.

Contrary to the June 2024 Federal Reserve Industrial Production 1.1% year-over-year growth, the US Census manufacturing data shows new orders for manufactured goods in June 2024 declined 5.2% year-over-year. This data moves industrial production into a significant recession in June 2024, and early data has July 2024 manufacturing data also in a recession. Remember that imports are increasing which only suggests that despite the current policy to increase US manufacturing – manufacturing is leaving the country.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Oil and Gas Drilling Activity Slows Amidst Price Plunge
• Imperial Oil Q2 Earnings Surge by 68%
• Chevron Ditches California for Texas
• The Risk of a Regional War in the Middle East
• Dow closes down 600 points, Nasdaq enters correction after weak jobs report: Live updates
• Intel heads for worst day on Wall Street in 50 years, falls to lowest price in over a decade
• Mortgage rates plunge to the lowest level in over a year after weak employment report
• Berkshire’s mounting cash pile could top $200 billion as Buffett continues selling stock
• Car Repos Rise 23% YoY
• Financial Strain On American Households Hits Retailers Hard
• Recession fears fuel swings in interest-rate expectations and 2-year Treasury yield

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 495 points or 1.21%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.30%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.37%,
• Gold $2,487 up $14.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $0.94,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.981 down 0.123 points,
• USD index $104.39 down $0.300,
• Bitcoin $63,346 down $1,268 or 1.96%,

Today’s Highlights:

US stocks experienced significant selling pressure on Thursday, with all three major indexes falling sharply. Here’s a summary of the key points:

1. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the decline, falling 2.3%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 494 points (1.2%).
2. Chip stocks were hit particularly hard, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 7%. Arm Holdings plummeted 15% after disappointing results, dragging down other market leaders like Nvidia and AMD, which fell over 6% and 8% respectively.
3. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February, settling around 3.98%.
4. Weak economic data contributed to the sell-off. The US manufacturing sector contracted further in July, jobless claims rose to an 11-month high, and construction spending unexpectedly declined in June.
5. Despite the Federal Reserve signaling a likely rate cut in September, investors reacted negatively to the economic data, viewing it as “bad news” rather than a potential catalyst for steeper rate cuts.
6. Traders increased bets on more aggressive Fed moves, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rising from 11% to 25%.
7. Meta was a notable exception, rising 4.4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results.
8. The July jobs report, due on Friday, is the next key data release that investors will be watching closely.

This sell-off highlights the market’s sensitivity to economic data and suggests that investors are becoming more concerned about economic growth rather than just focusing on potential rate cuts.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July 2024, a 47% decrease from the 48,786 cuts announced one month prior – but up 9% from the 23,697 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. perspective:

The job market is indeed cooling, with hiring at the lowest point in over a decade.  While we are seeing increased cuts in manufacturing sectors, both consumer and industrial, most industries are cutting below last year’s levels.

Construction spending during June 2024  is 6.2% above June 2023 estimate – but this is down from the 7.1% year-over-year in the previous month. Spending on private construction was up 5.9% year-over-year but down from the 6.5% growth in the previous month. Public construction was up 7.3% year-over-year but down from the 9.3% seen the previous month. Unfortunately, construction continues to slow even though it remains one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy.

The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.8% in July 2024,down 1.7 percentage points from the 48.5% recorded in June. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.4%, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 49.3 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (45.9 percent) is 2.6 percentage points lower than June’s figure of 48.5 percent. Just one more nail in the manufacturing coffin indicating it has slid into a recession.

In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 238,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 235,500. Initial unemployment claims remain in territory associated with an expanding economy.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024 with unit labor costs increasing 0.5% year-over-year. Note that the trends are that both productivity and unit labor costs are moderating – however with productivity growth being significantly higher than labor cost growth, it helps the U.S. competitive position.

NFIB’s July jobs report found a seasonally adjusted net 33% of small business owners reported raising compensation in July, down five points from last month and the lowest reading since April 2021. A net 18% (seasonally adjusted) plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down four points from June. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Fewer small business owners are planning to raise compensation in the coming months, and plans to hire remain stable,. July marks the second month of net gains in employment on Main Street, and the number of firms with open positions remains exceptionally high.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Bullish and Bearish Signals Clash in a Tug-of-War Across Global Markets
• The 10 Most Exciting Technologies of 2024
• China’s Energy Revolution: Wind and Solar Surpass Coal in Historic Milestone
• Record Production Helps ConocoPhillips Beat Q2 Profit Estimate
• High Energy Costs Prompt German Firms to Consider Relocating
• Traders Bet on $130 Oil as Middle East Tensions Spike
• Dow closes nearly 500 points lower Thursday as investors’ recession fears awaken: Live updates
• Markets are clamoring for the Fed to start cutting soon: ‘What is it they’re looking for?’
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Shake Shack, C.H. Robinson, Mobileye Global and more
• Stocks & Bond Yields Puke Amid ‘Most Volatile Earnings Season’ Since GFC
• New Video Emerges Of Shooter Running Across Roof As Trump Is Speaking
• ‘Important moment’ as interest rates cut to 5%
• 10-year Treasury yield ends below 4% for first time since February after weak ISM manufacturing data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 99 points or 0.24%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.64%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.58%,
• Gold $2,495 up $43.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $3.70,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.057 down 0.083 points,
• USD index $104.09 down $0.460,
• Bitcoin $65,224 down $946 or 1.43%,

Today’s Highlights:

Nvidia (NVDA) stock experienced a significant rally of nearly 13% on Wednesday, driven by several positive factors<:

1. AMD’s strong performance: AMD’s better-than-expected quarterly results and optimistic guidance for the third quarter helped alleviate concerns about the sustainability of the AI trade.
2. Morgan Stanley’s bullish call: Analysts at Morgan Stanley designated Nvidia as a ‘Top Pick’ following a recent pullback in the stock price. They maintained an Overweight rating with a price target of $144.
3. Big Tech spending on AI infrastructure: Microsoft’s increased spending on data center infrastructure in its latest quarterly results signaled continued investment in AI technology, benefiting chip suppliers like Nvidia and AMD
4. Industry-wide rally: Other semiconductor companies, including Broadcom, Micron, Taiwan Semiconductor, ASML, and Super Micro, also saw gains on Wednesday.

The rally came after a period of decline, with Nvidia’s stock having dropped more than 20% from its June peak. Morgan Stanley analysts identified five main factors contributing to the recent decline: spending strategies, competitive pressures, export limitations, supply chain anxieties, and valuation concerns. However, they believe that despite these issues, the earnings environment is likely to remain strong for Nvidia and the AI sector as a whole. Despite recent fluctuations, Nvidia’s stock has shown impressive growth in 2024, rising over 130% year-to-date and significantly outperforming the Nasdaq’s 17% increase. The company is scheduled to release its next quarterly earnings report on August 28, 2024

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Pending home sales in June 2024 declined 2.6% from the previous year in June of 2024 but better than the 6.6% drop in May. Overall, home sales are down over 25% from 2001 levels. The household growth rate is slightly less than 1% per year since 2001 which means the need for housing should be up 25% from 2001 (not down 25%). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

The rise in housing inventory is beginning to lead to more contract signings. Multiple offers are less intense, and buyers are in a more favorable position.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, fell to 45.3 in July 2024 from a seven-month high of 47.4 in June. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. This index is viewed as an early indicator the the national ISM manufacturing index which will be released tomorrow. The bottom line is that data continues to indicate that July manufacturing is in a recession.

The Federal Reserve released their FOMC meeting statement for 31 July 2025. The meeting statement seems to suggest that the FOMC is closer to starting a reduction in the federal funds rate. Here is a portion of the statement and you can draw your own conclusion.

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains somewhat elevated. In recent months, there has been some further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China is Flooding Global Markets with Excess Steel Supply
• Texas Pipeline Congestion Could Throttle U.S. Oil Exports at Critical Time
• U.S. Oil & Gas Sector Methane Emissions 8X Above Industry Target
• Inventory Draw Pushes Oil Up
• Indian Oil’s Profit Tumbles by 81% on Weak Refining Margins
• Brent Breaks Above $80 on Fears of Middle East Escalation
• Powell says September rate cut ‘on the table’ if inflation data continues to cool
• S&P 500 posts best day since February, as Powell points to possible September rate cut: Live updates Live updates
• Nvidia shares soar 13% after Microsoft quells fears that AI buildout is too fast
• Boeing taps aerospace veteran Ortberg to replace Dave Calhoun as CEO
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Boeing, Vistra, Match Group and more
• “The Fed Did Not Tip A September Cut, By Any Stretch”: Wall Street Reacts To The FOMC Statement

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 203 points or 0.50%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.28%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.50%,
• Gold $2,405 up $27.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.69,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.142 down 0.034 points,
• USD index $104.55 down $0.010,
• Bitcoin $65,705 down $1,066 or 1.60%,

Today’s Highlights:

This week’s focus is on three major events:

This week is crucial for investors, featuring the Fed’s interest-rate decision, the July jobs report, and earnings from four of the “Magnificent Seven” mega cap companies. Investors are particularly focused on whether the recent stock pullback has ended and are weighing expectations for rate cuts against concerns about Big Tech’s AI-driven performance. Semiconductor stocks, especially Nvidia, lagged, with Nvidia’s shares dropping significantly. Investors are closely watching Microsoft’s quarterly report, which will be followed by earnings from Apple, Amazon, and Meta. The market is keen to see if substantial AI investments are beginning to yield returns, especially after a volatile July that saw investors shift from Big Tech to small caps. Additionally, Starbucks and AMD are set to report their earnings after the market close. Despite uncertainties surrounding AI, a trend has emerged where investors support companies that post weak results but indicate a positive business outlook. The Fed began its July policy meeting, with expectations that there will be no immediate change in borrowing costs but potential groundwork for a rate cut in September, following encouraging June inflation data.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 6.8% in May 2024, dropping from a 7.3% increase in the previous month. New York reported the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 9.4% increase in May, followed by San Diego and Las Vegas with increases of 9.1% and 8.6%, respectively. Portland once again held the lowest rank for the smallest year-over-year growth, notching a 1.0% annual increase in May. From CoreLogic’s  Dr. Selma Hepp:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose in July 2024 to 100.3 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 97.8 in June. Consumer confidence has been little changed over the last 2 years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board added:

Confidence increased in July, but not enough to break free of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. Even though consumers remain relatively positive about the labor market, they still appear to be concerned about elevated prices and interest rates, and uncertainty about the future; things that may not improve until next year.

The number of job openings was unchanged at 8.2 million on the last business day of June 2024. As the graph below shows, there is a correlation between job openings and employment gains. As the number of job openings is little changed – one would expect little change in employment growth when the July data is released later this week. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.3 million and 5.1 million, respectively.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Aluminum Prices Plummet Despite Green Energy Hype
• Ukraine Targets Another Russian Oil Depot Amid Escalating Conflict
• Phillips 66 Tops Forecasts Despite Profit Slump
• Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Plunge to 11-Month Low
• Microsoft shares drop as cloud miss overshadows better-than-expected revenue and earnings
• Here’s everything you need to know about the Fed decision coming Wednesday
• JetBlue shares jump 12% after surprise profit, $3 billion aircraft spending deferral
• Three Palestinian Terror Suspects Detained At Southern Border As Agents Lament Lack Of Resources
• Cannabis company Tilray made a huge bet on craft beer. It’s already paying off.
• ‘Social-media companies have failed’: Senate passes bills to protect kids online

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 49 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
• Gold $2,381 up $0.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.26,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.170 down 0.029 points,
• USD index $104.56 up $0.240,
• Bitcoin $67,297 down $947 or 1.39%,

Today’s Highlights:

This week’s focus is on three major events:

1. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday
2. The July nonfarm payrolls report on Friday
3. Earnings reports from major tech companies

While no change in interest rates is expected from the Fed meeting, investors are looking for signals about potential rate cuts later in the year. The jobs report is anticipated to show some weakening in the labor market, which could influence future rate decisions. Earnings reports from tech giants Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are highly anticipated, especially given the recent stock sell-off following earlier “Magnificent Seven” results. Over 150 S&P 500 companies are set to report earnings this week, providing a broad view of the economic landscape. The market’s performance comes after a strong rally on Friday, driven by encouraging inflation data that bolstered expectations for future interest rate cuts. However, the recent volatility and tech sector sell-off have left investors cautious about potential surprises that could challenge the fragile market rally.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey’s production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, held fairly steady at -1.3, with the near-zero reading signaling little change in output from June 2024. The new orders index dropped 12 points to -12.8 in July, signaling a pullback in demand. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes also slipped, falling to -10.0 and -16.3, respectively. Manufacturing in the U.S. continues to be weak – and likely will be in a recession in July 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Has Global Oil Production Already Peaked?
• New Gas Discovery Brings Optimism for Bolivia’s Energy Future
• WTI Sheds Over 2% As Goldman Sachs Heralds U.S. Crude Output Growth
• Weak Demand in China Weighs on Middle East Oil Price Outlook
• Ukraine Targets Russian Energy Infrastructure in Retaliatory Drone Strikes
• China’s Top Grid Operator Plans Record $83 Billion Investment in 2024
• Apple releases first preview of its long-awaited iPhone AI
• Investors are punishing stocks that miss earnings more than normal this season
• Ford, GM, Stellantis face a daunting second half of 2024
• Bitcoin moves toward $70,000 then dips as investors digest political developments: CNBC Crypto World
• McDonald’s earnings, revenue miss estimates as consumer pullback worsens
• Treasury Estimates $1.3 Trillion In Borrowing Needs For The Remainder Of 2024
• Treasury sharply cuts third-quarter borrowing estimate

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 654 points or 1.64%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.11%,
• Gold $2,384 up $30.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.50,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.192 down 0.0663 points,
• USD index $104.31 down $0.040,
• Bitcoin $68,011 up $22152 or 3.37%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 589 Canada +14 to 211

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EU Leverages Frozen Russian Assets for €1.5 Billion Aid Package to Ukraine
• Oil Rig Count Jumps as Drilling Activity Picks Up
• Technology and EVs Send China’s Power Demand Surging
• Goldman Sachs: Next President Will Have Limited Tools to Raise U.S. Oil Supply
• Stocks soar, Dow closes 650 points higher buoyed by bullish inflation report: Live updates
• Apple and Microsoft are among the ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks set to report next week. Here’s what that means
• Dexcom shares plunge more than 40%, head for worst day on record
• Bitcoin bounces back above $67,000, while ether drops more than 7% for the week: CNBC Crypto World
• Nvidia could be on the verge of a massive technical sell-off, chart analyst warns
• Treasury yields slip after release of key inflation data for June
• Bidenomics Failure Worsens As Credit Card Delinquency Rate Hits 12-Year High  
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at more than 5-month low after PCE inflation data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 81 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.93%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.51%,
• Gold $2,362 down $53.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.51,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.251 down 0.049 points,
• USD index $104.40 down $0.01,
• Bitcoin $64,663 down $703 or 1.08%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

• Dow leads stock comeback from steep sell-off: The focus is shifting to the economy as GDP and jobless reports exceed expectations .
• US economy booms as GDP growth blows past expectations: The GDP grew at a 2.8% annualized rate in Q2, much higher than economists expected .
• Stellantis stock sinks on results, following rivals GM, Ford: Stellantis’ stock performance in light of recent results .
• Chipotle to splurge on bigger portions to keep diners happy: Chipotle’s strategy to maintain customer satisfaction .
• Flamin’ Hot Cheetos dispute winds up in court: Legal issues surrounding the popular snack .
• US 30-year fixed-rate mortgage edges up to 6.78%, Freddie Mac says: Latest mortgage rate figures from Freddie Mac .
• OpenAI announces AI-powered search tool SearchGPT: Launch of OpenAI’s new search tool, SearchGPT .
• Workers at GM seat supplier in Missouri reach tentative agreement, end strike: Resolution of the strike at a GM seat supplier .

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged 97% to 234 in June from 119 in May. It is up 98% from 118 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. The perspective from Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc:

Leaders are anticipating a sea change as we enter the second half of this year, perhaps politically, but certainly technologically. New leadership is often necessary during periods of change.

The advance estimate of 2Q2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% year-over-year. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.9% year-over-year. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. On the other hand, inflation marginally worsened with the implicit price deflator rose to 2.6% year-over-year from last quarter’s 2.4%. Advance estimates can be significantly different than the “final” GDP growth numbers. As I have previously stated – inflation is not going away.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in June 2024 declined 10.2% year-over-year from the 1.5% decline last month   The decline can be laid on civilian aircraft (Boeing) but there were no bright spots as manufacturing continues to fade.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Rare Earths Strategy, Explained
• Grid-Enhancing Technologies: The Answer to Growing Power Needs?
• U.S. Boosts Natural Gas Power as Wind Output Slumps to 33-Month Low
• U.S. Hits Record High Electricity Generation From Natural Gas
• Oil Prices Tank on Fears China’s Rate Cuts Herald Demand Weakness
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower Thursday as tech comeback attempt falters: Live updates
• Lineage begins trading in the market’s largest IPO of 2024
• Ford shares, on pace for worst day since 2008, lead autos rout after company’s disappointing earnings
• Berkshire Hathaway dumps $2.3 billion of Bank of America shares in a 6-day sale
• Bitcoin sinks to $64,000 level alongside tech stock rout: CNBC Crypto World
• Southwest to get rid of open seating, offer extra legroom in biggest shift in its history
• ChatGPT reveals search feature in Google challenge
• This bond-market signal of impending recessions went on a wild ride. Here’s its message.
• 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end lower for second time in three sessions despite solid U.S. GDP data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 504 points or 1.25%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.64%,
• S&P 500 closed down 2.31%,
• Gold $2,403 down $15.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.287 up 0.049 points,
• USD index $104.38 down $0.070,
• Bitcoin $65,643 down $297 or 0.45%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

1. Nasdaq Sinks Over 3%: The Nasdaq experienced a significant drop, driven by disappointing earnings from Tesla and Alphabet. This sell-off has led to increased market volatility, with the VIX reaching its highest level since April.
2. US Business Activity Growth: Business activity in the US grew at its fastest rate in over two years in July, according to S&P Global’s latest flash US composite PMI. The services sector drove the gains, while manufacturing activity declined.
3. Tech Stocks Lead Losses: Major tech stocks, including Tesla and Alphabet, saw substantial declines, contributing to the broader market downturn. Tesla’s stock fell nearly 9%, and Alphabet’s shares dropped about 5%.
4. Economic Confidence Among Small to Mid-Sized Businesses: Despite high economic confidence among small to mid-sized businesses, there are emerging signs of concern, as highlighted in a recent report.
5. Fiserv to Release Q2 Earnings: Fiserv, a global provider of financial services technology, is set to release its second-quarter earnings results today. The company will present the results during a live webcast

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single-family houses in June 2024 is 7.4% below June 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2024 was $417,300. The average sales price was $487,200. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 476,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate. Over the last 18 months, the median sales price of new homes is little changed. It is obvious that high mortgage rates are affecting new home sales.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Unaffordable Prices and Elevated Interest Rates Impact New Car Demand
• Net-Zero Targets Could Double Yearly Copper Demand by 2035
• Russia, Iraq And Kazakhstan To Compensate Overproduction in The Next 15 Months
• ‘Oil Kills’ Climate Activists Block European Airports
• Tesla to Focus on Autonomy and AI as Earnings Disappoint
• S&P 500, Nasdaq tumble for worst day since 2022 as Tesla, Alphabet slide after quarterly results: Live updates
• Tesla shares close down 12% after earnings miss for biggest slump since 2020
• Why an indicator that has foretold almost every recession doesn’t seem to be working anymore
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Lamb Weston, Tesla, Enphase Energy and more
• CrowdStrike to improve testing after ‘bug’ caused outage
• 2-year Treasury rallies on wave of risk-off sentiment, sending yield to lowest in more than five months
• ‘Magnificent Seven’ stocks near correction territory as $1.7 trillion in value erased

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 128 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.58%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.08%,
• Gold $2,400 down $1.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.18,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.255 up 0.017 points,
• USD index $104.32 down $0.080,
• Bitcoin $68,267 up $86 or 0.13%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

1. The S&P 500 rose on Monday, rebounding from its worst weekly loss since April. This rise was primarily driven by a bounce in tech shares, particularly Nvidia leading the tech sector recovery.
2. The market showed a shift in focus from large technology stocks to smaller companies.
3. Investors were closely monitoring corporate earnings and central bank policies. There was a high expectation (around 93%) of the Federal Reserve implementing an interest rate cut in the upcoming September meeting.
4. The market was also reacting to political developments, with President Joe Biden exiting the presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic candidate.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.01 in June 2024 from –0.08 in May. This month forty-two of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI while 43 made negative contributions. following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20. This is my favorite coincident economic indicator – and it is telling us that the economy is growing near the historical average rate of growth.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Solar Surplus: California’s Renewable Energy Dilemma
• Trans Mountain Corp. Arranges Bond Sale To Refinance $18B Debt
• Armenia Deepens Western Ties with U.S. Military Drills
• Saudi Arabia, Gulf Economies To Slow Down Due To Output Cuts
• Bad News From China Could Be The Harbinger For Lower Oil Prices
• Russia Considers Building Oil Refinery in Cuba
• Ukraine Drone Damages Russia’s Largest Black Sea Refinery
• Warner Bros. Discovery tells NBA it intends to match Amazon’s media rights package
• S&P 500 climbs for best day since early June as Nvidia shares lead tech turnaround: Live updates
• Markets could unwind the ‘Trump trade’ after Biden drops out of presidential race
• US Subsidiary Of Chinese EV Manufacturer BYD Donated Hundreds Of Thousands To Democrats
• Treasury yields end at nearly 2-week highs as traders assess chances of a Trump win
• Oil prices finish lower, holding ground at lowest since mid-June

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.