NOAA Issues their Hurricane Outlooks Marking the Start of Summer this May 29, 2023

May 29, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:26 a.m. EDT Tuesday, May 30, 2023

We are entering Hurricane Season. So it is appropriate to discuss the recent projections issued by NOAA. NOAA has provided projections for the Atlantic, Central Pacific, and Eastern Pacific.

I also discuss the apparent correlation between hurricane frequency and intensity with the phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). This is particularly important this year due to the combination of a warm Atlantic and a forecast of an El Nino. These two factors tend to cancel each other out and this combination occurs rarely.  This makes the forecast this year interesting and based on a small number of occurrences of this combination. Thus the level of confidence in the Outlook for the Atlantic may be lower than usual.

The analysis of the impact of the AMO on the forecast is in Part II of the article so those who are only interested in the forecast will find that early in the article. Ocean cycles are very important when trying to understand the climate of the U.S. and other parts of the World.

It is also appropriate to remind those who are at risk from tropical cyclones to be as prepared as possible.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 29, 2023

May 29, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:14 p.m. EDT Monday May 29, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
310 PM EDT Mon May 29 2023

Valid 00Z Tue May 30 2023 – 00Z Thu Jun 01 2023

…Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms expected for large
portions of the central U.S. into the Northern Rockies and northern Great
Basin…

…Showery conditions likely across the Southern Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday and developing across portions of Florida Wednesday…

…Much above average temps expected along the northern tier of the
nation, while cooler than average temps accompany the showers across the
Southeast portion of the nation…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 28, 2023

May 28, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:50 p.m. EDT Sunday, May 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
306 PM EDT Sun May 28 2023

Valid 00Z Mon May 29 2023 – 00Z Wed May 31 2023

…Unsettled and cool weather remains across the Mid-Atlantic through
Tuesday…

…Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great
Basin, northern and central Rockies, Great Plains, and Upper Midwest for
the next few days…

…Above average temperatures forecast throughout the northern half of the
Nation…

NOAA Updates their Seasonal Outlook – El Nino coming but not here yet – May 27, 2023

May 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Lightly edited at 5:54 p.m. EDT Saturday, May 27, 2023 mostly to compare the new to the prior Seasonal Outlook. They are very similar.

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of June plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present (apologies for the delay) the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook.  In general, the overall level of confidence in the Seasonal Outlook is lower than usual for many reasons that are addressed in the NOAA discussion. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

  • Equatorial SSTs are near-to-above average across most of the Pacific Ocean and atmospheric conditions reflect ENSO-neutral conditions [Editor’s Note: The Atmosphere has not yet responded to the warming in the Eastern Pacific which is marginally at El Nino levels].
  • At least a weak El Niño is likely given high levels of above-average oceanic heat content, but the range of possibilities include an 80 percent chance of at least a moderate El Niño and a 55 percent chance of a strong El Niño by the end of the year.
  • This likely warm start to June along with monthly dynamical and statistical tools support increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest east to the Northern Great Plains. 
  • The NMME along with an increased potential for an early season TC [tropical cyclone] to emerge from the western Caribbean Sea favors above-normal precipitation [in June] for parts of the Southeast.
  • The JJA 2023 temperature outlook favors above-normal temperatures over the western CONUS, the Southwest, the Gulf States, along the eastern seaboard, and for much of the state of Alaska.
  • The JJA 2023 precipitation outlook depicts below-normal precipitation probabilities over the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies, the Southwest, and south coast of Alaska. NMME and C3S are in good agreement on below normal precipitation over the southwest and wet soil moisture over the Four Corners region may provide a sluggish start to the Monsoon this summer. Above normal precipitation probabilities are indicated over parts of the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valleys, the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, the Southeast, and mid-Atlantic. Parts of the Central Plains tend to be anti-correlated with the monsoon region, and as such a weak tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated.
  • Confidence decreases in September-November (SON) 2023 and following seasons as lead time increases and dynamical models  become more uncertain, however, El Niño is expected to become more dominant in the forecast(s), and the pattern begins to reflect El Niño conditions during fall and winter seasons.
  • Decadal [Temperature] trends become the dominant player in spring and summer 2024, with below normal trends  over the Pacific Northwest and above-normal trends  over the Mid-Atlantic.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 27, 2023

May 27, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1240 PM EDT Sat May 27 2023

Valid 00Z Sun May 28 2023 – 00Z Tue May 30 2023

…A convective low pressure system is forecast to bring areas of heavy
rain, gusty winds and hazardous beach and boating conditions for the
Southeast into the Mid-Atlantic through the Memorial Day weekend…

…Showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, and the High Plains for the next few days…

…Warmer than normal across much of the Northwest and north-central U.S.
but much cooler than normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...

A Closer Examination of the Report of Record Wheat Crop Abandonment – May 26, 2023

May 26, 2023Posted inagricultureNo Comments

Updated at 5:17 p.m. EDT Friday, May 26 to improve the summary at the end of the article.

USDA has announced record winter wheat crop abandonment. Is this really significant news?

At first, it perplexed me since the total production of winter wheat is expected to increase slightly.

In this article, we explain how you can have an increase in production with an increase in crop abandonment.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 26, 2023

May 26, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:46 p.m. EDT Friday May 26, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023

Valid 00Z Sat May 27 2023 – 00Z Mon May 29 2023

…A low pressure system is forecast to bring areas of heavy rain, gusty
winds and hazardous beach and boating conditions for the Southeast over
the Memorial Day weekend…

…Showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, and the High Plains for the next few days…

…Warmer than normal across much of the Northwest and north-central U.S.
but much cooler than normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast…

Weekly Crop Report May 25, 2023 – Overall a very good Crop Report – Record Winter Wheat Abandonment but non-US Producers respond to the opportunity.

May 25, 2023Posted inagricultureNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the May 23, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the May 15 – 21  period of time. The USDA report becomes available on Tuesdays. I will try to publish this article Tuesday night for viewing Wednesday morning but I am one day late this week.

Included in the USDA Crop Bulletin was information on the highest percentage abandonment of Winter Wheat since 2017. I included a link to additional information on this somewhat worrying trend. This year, drought in Kansas was a major factor in this. But it is more complicated than that.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

It is still early in the season but we beginning to have information on most crops. And overall it looks like a very good year developing.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 25, 2023

May 25, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 11:18 p.m. EDT Thursday, May 25, 2023, to provide information on the new drought warning for the Midwest.

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023

Valid 00Z Fri May 26 2023 – 00Z Sun May 28 2023

…Locally heavy rain and thunderstorms possible in the Southeast, Great
Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains over the next few days…

…Hazardous beach conditions in the Southeast this weekend…

…Above average temps in the Northwest and North-Central U.S. and below
average temps in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the weekend…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 18, 2023

May 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:15 p.m. EDT Wed May 24, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EDT Wed May 24 2023

Valid 00Z Thu May 25 2023 – 00Z Sat May 27 2023

…Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern High Plains this
evening…

…Isolated to scattered locally heavy rain and thunderstorms to impact
parts of the Southeast, Great Basin, northern Rockies, and much of the
High Plains over the next few days…

…Well above average temperatures confined to the northern Plains and
Upper Midwest through the end of the week, while much cooler temperatures
push into the Great Lakes and Northeast…