Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 22, 2023

April 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 22 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 23 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 25 2023

…Showers and storms with locally heavy rain linger in New England
Sunday-Monday…

…Areas of heavy rain and severe thunderstorms continue Sunday across
southern Texas…

…Frost/Freeze expected across portions of the Central Plains into the
Midwest Sunday morning…

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers will spread from the Pacific
Northwest Sunday into the Rockies Monday…

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on April 20, 2023 – The Southwest Monsoon is expected to be less productive than usual. An El Nino Winter is Expected

April 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of May plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

  • ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023. An El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance)
  • The combination of elevated snowpack and high soil moisture across much of the West coupled with below normal SSTs currently observed in the Gulf of California and the Pacific off the west Coast of the Baja California Peninsula would favor a slower evolution of monsoonal circulation.
  • El Niño is expected to become more of a factor and the pattern begins to increasingly reflect El Niño conditions during the cold months. As a result, enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures indicated for the Southern CONUS late summer/early fall are reduced by the winter. Conversely, chances of above normal temperatures increase across the Northern Tier by the winter months.
  • As we enter the fall and winter months, the pattern begins to increasingly reflect an El Niño signature. Increased probabilities for above normal precipitation depicted across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys during late summer and early fall transitions to the East and Gulf Coasts during the winter months, consistent with El Niño. Conversely, an increasingly dry signal is evident across the northwestern CONUS by the winter with probabilities of below normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent across the Pacific Northwest from November-December-January (NDJ) 2023-24 through JFM 2024. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for the Great Lakes Region westward toward the Northern Plains during the cold months, consistent with El Niño.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 21, 2023

April 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:51 p.m. EDT Friday, April 21, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 22 2023 – 00Z Mon Apr 24 2023

…Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue eastward along a cold front
from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today to the East Coast this weekend
with severe weather and flash flooding possible…

…Dome of high pressure to deliver widespread swath of abnormally chilly
temperatures from the Nation’s Heartland today and Saturday to the East
Coast by Sunday…

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers for the northern/central
Rockies and Pacific Northwest; unsettled and stormy second half of the
weekend for southern and central Texas...

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 20, 2023

April 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:52 p.m. EDT Thursday, April 20, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Apr 21 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 23 2023

…Showers and thunderstorms continue eastward along a cold front from the
Mississippi Valley to the East Coast with isolated flash flooding and
severe weather possible…

…Moderate to locally heavy snow will continue into the day Friday for
portions of the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest…

…Precipitation chances increase for the Northern/Central Rockies and
Pacific Northwest Friday; tranquil conditions for California and the
Southwest…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 19, 2023

April 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:03 p.m EDT Wednesday April 19, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
215 PM EDT Wed Apr 19 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Apr 20 2023 – 00Z Sat Apr 22 2023

…There is a Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Plains on Wednesday; and a Slight Risk across Northeast Texas into
Southeast Missouri, incl. much of Arkansas on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall at the intersection of
Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas and Missouri Wednesday before shifting to Northeast
Texas to Southeast Missouri, incl. much of Arkansas on Thursday…

…Moderate to Heavy snow will affect much of Montana and Northern North
Dakota today, before sliding eastward along the US/Canadian boarder of
North Dakota/Minnesota on Thursday…

…Critical Fire Weather continues over much of New Mexico into the
Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles for Wednesday, remaining Elevated to Critical
across New Mexico on Thursday…
 

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 18, 2023

April 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:06 p.m. EDT Tuesday, April 18, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
227 PM EDT Tue Apr 18 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Apr 19 2023 – 00Z Fri Apr 21 2023

…Snow over the Northern Rockies on Tuesday and Wednesday; moderate snow
over parts of the Northern Plains on Wednesday...

…Critical Fire Weather will continue through Thursday across the
Southern High Plains as well as across the Mid-Atlantic Tuesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley on Wednesday…

…There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Central Plains, Lower Missouri and Upper Mississippi Valleys on
Wednesday…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 17, 2023

April 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:31 p.m. Monday, April 17, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 PM EDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 18 2023 – 00Z Thu Apr 20 2023

…Late season heavy snow event to diminish Monday night across the Upper
Lakes region…

…Heavy snows possible across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies
Monday night and Tuesday and into portions of the Northern High Plains on
Wednesday…

…Below average temperatures expected across most areas to the west of
the Rockies, along the northern tier from the Northern Plains, Upper Lakes
to northern New England, while above average temperatures stretch from the
Plains to much of the East Coast…

…Elevated to Critical Fire weather threat for the Southern High Plains…

Colorado River Basin Update April 16, 2023

April 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated to include additional information. Final update was at 1:23 a.m. Monday April 17, 2023

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of the situation as of April 1, 2023.  But I have provided links to obtain more current information. In a way, the situation is better than it seemed to be on April 1 but flood risk has increased in a few places. I have also included some of the graphics from the April 7, 2023 presentation. So some of the information is a bit more current than the rest of it.

I have also included information on the current reservoir storage levels including a few that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows the area covered in the CBRFC Report.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 16, 2023

April 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:20 p.m. EDT Sunday, April 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sun Apr 16 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Apr 17 2023 – 00Z Wed Apr 19 2023

…Late season winter storm hammers parts of the Upper Midwest and
northern Great Lakes…

…Cooler weather returning to the Eastern U.S. to begin the work week…

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 15, 2023

April 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:24 p.m. Saturday, April 15, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 PM EDT Sat Apr 15 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Apr 16 2023 – 00Z Tue Apr 18 2023

…Showers and thunderstorms move from the Mississippi Valley to the East
Coast Sunday-Monday…

…Accumulating snowfall forecast for portions of the Upper Midwest
starting Sunday evening…

…Temperatures drop for the Great Lakes/Northeast Monday after an
anomalously warm week while the Plains sees a warm up…

…Series of Pacific storm systems brings unsettled weather to the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Rockies…