Select Short Term and IntermShort Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 14, 2024

January 14, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024

…Dangerous cold temperatures to persist across much of the U.S…

…Significant, impactful wintry precipitation to develop over the
Mid-South later today…

…Significant wintry weather winding down over the Pacific Northwest and
Great Basin…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Western Drought Update Posted on January 13, 2024

January 13, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

There is a succession of presentations by NOAA on a variety of subjects one of which is drought.  In many cases, the tape of the presentation including the question and answer portion is made available HERE. This one does not seem to have been posted yet but I obtained the graphics from the author. So there is no audio. Any comments in comment boxes are by me and will mostly be explanations that would otherwise be in the audio. The visual quality in the graphics is far better in this article than it would be in the tape of a webinar.

I selected this talk to present because I thought the author was unusually good at addressing multiple pieces of information in a single slide.

I know that I have to start reporting on other parts of the U.S. but the West seemed to be the most impacted early in this El Nino. That is changing so I will be reporting on other parts of the U.S. Each of these articles takes a lot of time for me to prepare.  They are all good but this one is extra good.

 

 

Some readers will have to click on”Read More” to read the full article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 13, 2024

January 13, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 13 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 13 2024 – 12Z Mon Jan 15 2024

…Major winter storm continues with significant impacts over the eastern
half of the U.S; more heavy rain in the Northeast through this morning…

…Significant Arctic cold and dangerous wind chills expected through
midweek; some snow and ice possible over the Mid-South…

…Heavy rainfall to return to the West Coast this morning…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on January 11, 2024 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. Disagreement on When it Will End

January 12, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen.  This El Nino has not become a Historical El Nino. We will try to address the slight confusion of when the El Nino will end in this article.

We have included some very interesting graphics from and a link to an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will gradually weaken and then transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024 .  Some state-of the-art dynamical climate models suggest a transition to ENSO-neutral as soon as March-May 2024.  The forecast team, however, delays this timing and strongly favors a transition to ENSO-neutral in April-June 2024.  There are also increasing odds of La Niña in the seasons following a shift to ENSO-neutral.  It is typical for El Niño to peak in December/early January, but despite weakening, its impacts on the United States could last through April (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, El Niño is expected to continue for the next several seasons, with ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (73% chance).

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

” The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Based on the latest forecasts, there is now a 54% chance of a “historically strong” El Niño during the November-January season (³ 2.0°C in Niño-3.4).  An event of this strength would potentially be in the top 5 of El Niño events since 1950.  While stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, it does not imply expected impacts will emerge in all locations or be of strong intensity (see CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation).  In summary, El Niño is expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral favored during April-June 2024 (60% chance;).”

We now provide additional detail.  The level of uncertainty with respect to how this El Nino will play out has increased quite a bit.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. DJF stands for December/January/February.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

This chart shows the forecasted progression of the evolution of ENSO from the current El Nino State to Neutral and by the summer to La Nina.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are different.  This month the probability of El Nino in MAM is much less than was expected last month.  That is important.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 12, 2024

January 12, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 12 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 12 2024 – 12Z Sun Jan 14 2024

…Major winter storm to bring heavy snow and blizzard conditions to the
Midwest/Great Lakes as well as more heavy rain, coastal flooding, and
severe weather for the Southeast/East Coast…

…Dangerously cold Arctic Air spreads southward through the Heartland
heading into the weekend…

…Moderate to heavy snowfall for the Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and
Northern Rockies, including snowfall for lower elevations…

 

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Snow Drought Report Posted January 11, 2024

January 11, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This is mostly from a NIDIS Drought.gov article that was issued on January 10, 2023. I included most of it but you can access the full report HERE.  The links in that report are live so some may want that. However, I have added some additional information at the end of this article that you will not find in the Drought.gov report.

To read the remainder of the articles some readers will have to click on “Read More”.  This is how we can show the introduction to many articles on the homepage for the convenience of readers.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 11, 2024

January 11, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 11 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 11 2024 – 12Z Sat Jan 13 2024

…Strong low pressure system develops over the Southern Plains and brings
widespread rain, snow, and wind for the eastern half of the nation…

…Dangerously cold temperatures for the northern Rockies and Plains
through this weekend…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Looking Back at the weather for the full Year of 2023 in the U.S. Posted January 10, 2024

January 10, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

I probably should have addressed the single month of December before the full year of 2023 but I received this email today so I thought I would write the article tonight for Wednesday viewing.

This article is about the full year of 2023 in the U.S.

This is the U.S. Annual temperature trend. 2023 was by no means a record but it was above the trend line. +0.16F a decade is a fairly steep slope.   You can see some cyclical characteristics in the data but the trend is clear. If I calculated the trend since 1970, the slope would be quite a bit steeper.

Now I will present the information provided by John Bateman with perhaps three additional graphics. Some readers may need to click on “Read More” to access the full article. It is how the Home Page can display the introduction to many articles.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 10, 2024

January 10, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 10 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 10 2024 – 12Z Fri Jan 12 2024

…Strong storm affects New England on Wednesday, followed by improving
conditions…

…Unsettled weather conditions continue for the Western U.S. with much
colder temperatures arriving for the Northern Plains…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 9, 2024

January 9, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 9 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 9 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 11 2024

…Major storm system will hammer the Eastern U.S. with widespread heavy
rain, strong winds, and severe thunderstorms on Tuesday into early
Wednesday…

…Unsettled weather conditions continue for the Western U.S. with much
colder temperatures arriving for the Northern Plains…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.