Sig Silber, Author at EconCurrents

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 29, 2024

By Sig Silber November 29, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 29 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 29 2024 – 12Z Sun Dec 01 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Sunday…

…Light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians on Friday and light
to moderate snow from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central
Appalachians on Saturday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains…

A slow-moving front across Florida will aid in creating showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast to Florida on Friday.
After the boundary moves south of Florida, scattered light rain will
develop along the east coast of the Florida peninsula on Saturday. An area
of high pressure over Central Canada will usher cold air over parts of the
Northern Plains, bringing temperatures of 10 to 25 degrees below average.
The cold air has prompted Cold Weather Advisories over parts of North
Dakota on Friday morning.

In addition, upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast
and cold air streaming over the Great Lakes will produce heavy lake-effect
snow over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan through Sunday. Lighter snowfall
will develop over most of the west coast of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan during the time period. However, heavy lake-effect snow will
develop over the parts of the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
Moreover, heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind of Lakes Erie and
Ontario through Sunday.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Middle Mississippi Valley to
the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains will be the focus for light snow
over parts of the Northern High Plains on Friday and over parts of the
Northern Plains on Saturday.

Furthermore, a wave of low pressure will develop on the boundary over
parts of the Central Plains and move eastward to the Central Appalachians
by Sunday. The system will produce light to moderate snow over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to the Central Appalachians on
Saturday into Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create light rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Saturday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 28, 2024

By Sig Silber November 28, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1105 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 30 2024

…Thanksgiving Day storm to push into the Northeast today spreading
rainfall and New England snowfall in its vicinity…

…Increasingly below average temperatures spill out into the Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley through the end of the week…

…Lake Effect snows continue and will expand and intensify with time…

A dynamic mid-latitude cyclone tracks near the New England coast today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms spread into the East Coast today. A
swath of moderate to heavy snowfall is likely to develop across portions
of the interior Northeast — winter storm watches and warnings are in
effect for portions of central New England related to the heavy snow
threat.

Elsewhere, Lake Effect snow showers across the Upper Great Lakes may yield
anywhere from 4-8 inches over the northern coastline of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan as well as northern parts of the Lower Peninsula
today. A disturbance aloft will allow for the development of a new cold
front late today which moves east and south ahead of a strong and cold
surface high. In the wake of this front, as temperatures cool further,
lake effect snows should expand and intensify as they interact with record
warm Great Lakes temperatures for late November. Several additional inches
of snow are forecast on Friday bringing 2 day snowfall totals over a foot
with isolated higher amounts possible across downwind areas of the Great
Lakes by Saturday morning. Florida will remain mild to warm.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 27, 2024

By Sig Silber November 27, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 27 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 29 2024

…Pre Thanksgiving to Thanksgiving Day storm to push from the Mid
Mississippi/Ohio Valley today into the Northeast on Thursday…

…Dry conditions on tap for the West Coast after several days of wet
weather…

…Much above average temperatures from the Southern Plains into the Gulf
Coast today, while much below average temperatures spill out into the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through the end of the week…

A low pressure system responsible for heavy snowfall over the Colorado
Rockies (ending this morning) will intensify into a dynamic mid-latitude
cyclone, tracking through the Midwest and into the Northeast Coast through
Thanksgiving day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this afternoon
before spreading into the East Coast tonight and progressively shifting
eastward through Thanksgiving day. A swath of light to moderate snowfall
is likely to develop across portions of the interior Northeast, with the
Northern Appalachians forecast to receive 4-8 inches of snow by Friday
morning.

Elsewhere, snow showers across the Upper Great Lakes may yield anywhere
from 4-8 inches over the northern coastline of the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan as well as northern parts of the Lower Peninsula. A dry spell
ensues across the West as an upper ridge slowly settles over the region.
Shortwave energy will phase with a northern stream trough and amplify
across the eastern half of the country in the coming days. This
development will allow for a cool continental airmass to spill out across
the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through Thanksgiving day before a
reinforcing arctic airmass plunges temperatures even more through this
holiday weekend. Prior to that, today will be the last day of much above
average temperatures throughout the South. Much of Texas will experience
high temperatures between 15-25 degrees above average.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 26, 2024

By Sig Silber November 26, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 26 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 26 2024 – 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Great Lakes and
Central Rockies…

…Below average temperatures in the Plains…

A moderate level atmospheric river event will accompany a surface low
pressure system as it moves into the West today. This AR will spread
anomalous moisture over southern/central California, the Great Basin and
Central Rockies. Heavy coastal and mountain rain may lead to instances of
flash flooding, particularly over the windward foothills of the southern
Sierra Nevada below 8000 feet, where excessive rainfall may cause
land/rock/mudslides. Heavy snow accumulating between 1-3 feet are possible
over the higher elevations of the southern Sierra, as well as much of the
Intermountain West and Central Rockies today. Snow diminishes over the
Sierra on Wednesday while snow showers persist over the Colorado Rockies.
Snow showers continue across the Great Lakes this week with parts of the
Upper Peninsula of Michigan and downwind areas of Lake Ontario picking up
between 4-8 inches of snow by Thursday morning.

Troughing across the northern tier states will continue to promote below
average temperatures over the next several days. High temperatures in the
teens and 20s will represent a 15-25 degree departure from normal for much
of the far Northern Plains today and Wednesday. A pair of mid-level
disturbances are expected to phase over the Central U.S. and facilitate an
arctic outbreak across the region Wednesday night into Thanksgiving
Thursday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 25, 2024

By Sig Silber November 25, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 25 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 25 2024 – 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Upper Great Lakes
and Central Rockies…

…Below average temperatures in the Northern Plains; above average temps
in the Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley today...

An upper-level trough will swoop into the West Coast from the northeast
Pacific early this week. This trough will direct a very anomalous
subtropical moisture plume along its base at central and southern
California today and Tuesday. A surface low pressure system will help
focus the anomalous moisture over coastal areas as well as the Sierra
Nevada. Parts of the southern Sierra below about 8000 feet may experience
instances of Flash Flooding today. Rock/mud slides and general debris flow
are some of the possible impacts from excessive rainfall in mountainous
areas. Heavy snow is probable at the higher elevations of the southern
Sierra, where 3-4 feet are forecast to accumulate with isolated higher
amounts possible by Wednesday morning. The anomalous moisture feed is also
expected to penetrate into the interior of the West. Parts of the Great
Basin will experience snow showers while heavy snow blankets the
Intermountain West and Colorado Rockies with 1-2′ (isolated 3′) likely
over the next couple of days.

Elsewhere, a pair of low pressure systems moving through the Upper
Midwest/Great Lakes will generate several inches of snow over the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan, while snow showers occur across the greater Upper
Midwest and Lower Great Lakes. Temperatures will remain above average for
one last day from the Southern Plains into the Midwest before a strong
cold front pushes through on Tuesday. Some record high temperatures (in
the mid to upper 80s) might be set over south Texas today. Highs topping
out in the teens and 20s will represent a negative 20-30 degree departure
from normal for parts of the Northern Plains today. Mild conditions
continue over much of the East Coast through Tuesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 24, 2024

By Sig Silber November 24, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 24 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 24 2024 – 12Z Tue Nov 26 2024

…Heavy Snowfall for parts of the Sierra Nevada…

…Above average temperatures spread from the central U.S. into the East
while cold airmass descends into the Great Plains…

A weak low pressure system will continue directing a plume of moisture at
the West Coast over the next few days. This will likely result in coastal
and low elevation rain, while moderate to heavy snow proliferates across
the coastal ranges of Washington, Oregon and California. The heaviest
snowfall is likely to occur over portions of the Sierra Nevada, with the
southern Sierra poised to accumulate 2-3 feet with isolated higher
amounts. Snow showers will also impact the Colorado Rockies over the next
few days. Heavy rain and snow chances increase on Tuesday as another
atmospheric river event arrives across parts of central California.

Relatively zonal flow across the southern tier of the country will support
another day of above average temperatures for the Central/Southern U.S.
today. An upper trough will pickup steam over the northern tier and send a
strong cold front diving south through the Great Plains over the next 48
hours. Highs in the teens will represent 20-30 degree departures from
normal over the Northern High Plains through Monday. Temperatures will
drop precipitously, from highs in 60s and 70s today to 40s and 50s on
Monday over parts of the Southern Plains as the cold front propagates
through. The associated warm front will spread mild air across the Eastern
U.S. on Monday before the cold front arrives and drops temperatures for
the rest of the week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

U.S. Irrigation and Water Management – Published on November 23, 2024

By Sig Silber November 23, 2024agricultureNo Comments

As usual, my comments if any are in a box. I made only one comment so far in this article and it is in a box to differentiate it from the USDA information.

Some will need to click on “Read More” to access the rest of this article. That will not be necessary for those who were sent the url of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 23, 2024

By Sig Silber November 23, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 23 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 25 2024

…Very strong Atmospheric River to produce heavy snow across the Sierra
Nevada before winding down over north/central California today…

…Above average temperatures expand across the Central U.S. this
weekend…

Moisture associated with a highly impactful and dangerous atmospheric
river event will diminish as it sags south and east through central
California today. Heavy snow is likely over much of the Sierra Nevada this
morning where anywhere between 1-2 feet are expected to accumulate when
all said and done. Upslope portions of the Sierra below 7000 feet may
experience isolated instances of flash flooding this morning before snow
levels drop on the backside of the cold front pushing through the West
this afternoon. Snow showers spread into Northern/Central Rockies this
afternoon and the Intermountain West on Sunday. Snowfall totals of 6-12
inches are probable for the aforementioned areas by the end of the weekend.

Surface high pressure extending from central Canada down to the Gulf Coast
will support below average temperatures for those regions through tonight.
Parts of the Southeast will experience low temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s which may lead to some frost/freezes. A deepening upper trough
over the north-central U.S.and Ridge over Mexico will promote above
average temperatures across the Great Plains today and Sunday before
expanding into the East by Monday. Elsewhere, mixed precipitation can be
expected to continue across portions of upstate New York and New England
today.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on November 21, 2024 – Still based on a weak La Nina starting very soon – Posted on November 22, 2024

By Sig Silber November 22, 2024weatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina has been challenging to predict. We are still in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario soon, but the strength of the La Nina may be fairly weak.

From the NOAA discussion:

“Taken collectively, statistical and dynamical model forecast guidance of the Niño3.4 index favor the development of a weak and most likely short duration La Niña event. Some statistical model forecasts do favor a continuation of ENSO-neutral into and through winter 2024-2025. Dynamical model guidance predictions tend to support weak La Niña conditions to develop, including the majority of participant models from the NMME and C3S forecast suites. Most recent observations and the forecast guidance noted above favor La Niña to emerge during OND 2024 (57% chance) and it is expected to persist through JFM 2025. After JFM 2025, ENSO-neutral is the most likely category into the northern hemisphere summer of 2025.”

“Based on a weak La Nina and models overdoing trends, observed trends become more of the signal. Furthermore, higher frequency patterns (AO, MJO, and stratospheric variability) that result in increased uncertainty can also play a larger role. Those modes are largely not predictable on seasonal timescales,”

I personally would not have total confidence in this outlook given the uncertainty about there actually being a La Nina and its strength if it does happen. I forecasted the JAMSTEC three-season forecast last Saturday LINK. I do not have a lot of confidence that NOAA knows how to deal with a La Nina Modoki. The number of El Nino and La Nina events since 1950 is a fairly small number. When you further segment them by strength you end up with a very small number of events in each category (El Nino v La Nina and three or four categories of strength within each of perhaps 8 to 10 subcategories. This makes both statistical methods and dynamical models have a large error range. We are pretty confident now that we will have either a weak La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina bias meaning it will be in the Neutral Range but closer to a La Nina than an El Nino. This suggests that there is value in this forecast. The maps show the level of confidence that NOAA (really the NOAA Climate Prediction Center) has for the outlook shown when they show a part of the U.S. or Alaska differing from normal.

Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for December.

It will be updated on the last day of November.

Then we look at a graphic that shows both the next month and the next three months.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020. So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are fairly similar except in two places. This tells us that January and February will be substantially the same as December for most of CONUS and Alaska. Part of the explanation for this is that NOAA expects La Nina to impact all three months.

–

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through December/January/February of 2026 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for December and the three-month period December/January/February Small maps are provided beyond that through December/January/February of 2026 with a link to get larger versions of these maps. NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article.

In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 22, 2024

By Sig Silber November 22, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 22 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 24 2024

…Atmospheric river will produce one last round of heavy rain/mountain
snow and strong wind gusts across the Pacific Northwest today…

…Moderate to heavy snow for portions of the Central Appalachians today...

…Above average temperatures expand across the Central U.S. this
weekend…

Anomalous moisture supported by a deep low pressure system will continue
impacting the Pacific Northwest today. Life threatening flooding is likely
across portions of northern California, where additional amounts of 3-5″
are expected, mainly over coastal areas. As much as 4-10″ of rain are
possible for the northern Sierra Nevada. Dangerous flooding, rock slides
and debris flows remain likely today. A Moderate Risk of Flash Flooding is
in effect for upslope portions of the northern Sierra below 5000′. The
flooding risk will decrease from north to south by later today and into
tonight. Heavy mountain snow is expected over the Washington Cascades and
Northern Rockies through Saturday. Multiple feet of snow are likely to
accumulate over portions of the northern Sierra (above 7000′) by Saturday
evening. Strong winds will continue across coastal areas of northwest
California into western Washington, and over south-central Oregon. These
winds may blow down trees and power lines, and additional power outages
are possible.

A deep upper low will pivot over the Northeast and reinforce a cooler
airmass along with a relatively shallow bit of moisture into the region
today. Some rain and snow showers are expected across much of the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic as a result. Heavier snow will likely
remain confined to the higher terrain of the Central Appalachians, where
between 6-12 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible.
Snow chances diminish as the day progresses and temperatures rise. Upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and Rockies will shift eastward into
the Central U.S. this weekend where above average temperatures are likely
to follow.