Posts by Sig Silber

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 09 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 09 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 11 2024

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat will expand across
the Southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday,
reaching into Midwest, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and the Southeast by
Thursday morning…

…Critical fire danger shifts into Texas Big Bend and Rio Grande Valley…

Following the 2024 Great American Eclipse, a developing low pressure
system over the southern Plains will become the main weather story for the
next couple of days. A vigorous upper-level trough exiting the southern
Rockies/ northern Mexico will continue to interact with moisture returning
from the Gulf of Mexico to deliver sprawling areas of heavy rain and
embedded severe thunderstorms first across eastern Texas into the Arklatex
region today, before expanding into the Texas Panhandle tonight. The
dynamic interaction will then consolidate and intensify a low pressure
system gradually over eastern Texas tonight, before taking the system more
rapidly northeastward across the Arklatex region on Wednesday. It appears
that a potent cold front trailing south from the low center will be the
focus for strong to severe thunderstorms across eastern Texas Wednesday
morning, through the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, before
reaching into the eastern Gulf states and the Florida Panhandle by early
on Thursday. Less of a severe weather threat is forecast for areas north
of the low pressure center track. Meanwhile, heavy rain could lead to
flooding concerns from the Texas Panhandle tonight, with the highest
threat across the Mid-South through Wednesday, before spreading into the
Midwest and lower Great Lakes early on Thursday. Winds will become
increasingly strong and gusty as the low pressure system becomes quite
strong by Thursday morning.

Outside of the intensifying low pressure system, relatively quiet weather
is expected for the next couple of days. The cloud cover and areas of rain
across the northern Plains into the upper Great Lakes are forecast to
taper off tonight as an old cyclone continues to fill and departs into
southern Canada. Scattered showers will then reach into the lower Great
Lakes Tuesday night, and continue to spread into New England Wednesday
night. The Pacific Northwest will see the arrival of a frontal zone with
some moisture and high elevation light snows into the northern Cascades
and eventually Rockies Tuesday before drying out on Wednesday. A warming
trend is in store for the West and East Coast, as well as the northern
tier states while cooler than normal temperatures will linger across the
South behind the intensifying low pressure system.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Apr 08 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024 – 12Z Wed Apr 10 2024

…Northern New England remains the best location for clear viewing of the
total solar eclipse this afternoon…

…Lingering wet snow across the Northern Plains expected to taper off
later today while locally moderate rain moves across the Upper Midwest…

…Heavy rain, flash flooding and severe weather threat emerging across
the Southern Plains to the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday…

…Critical fire danger shifts southward into western Texas by Tuesday…

As the long-anticipated total solar eclipse scheduled to take place this
afternoon, the weather pattern across the U.S. is entering a transition
period from one that consists of a winter storm across the North to heavy
rain and severe thunderstorms across the South. The low pressure system
that has brought snow, high winds, and severe weather to various locations
across the northern and central U.S. will continue to weaken and track
northeast across the upper Midwest today, and then move into southern
Canada on Tuesday. Lingering wet snow across the Northern Plains is
expected to taper off later today while locally moderate rain moves across
the Upper Midwest.

Monday morning will feature showers and embedded thunderstorms across the
Great Lakes down into the Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley and the lower
Mississippi Valley well in advance of the low pressure system and near the
trailing cold front. Meanwhile, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is
beginning to return to the western Gulf states. Southern Texas will
likely wake up to fair conditions this morning but will likely followed by
a rapid untimely increase of clouds this morning into the afternoon prior
to the arrival of the solar eclipse. In contrast, northern New England
remains to be the region where cloud cover will likely be minimized along
the path of totality this afternoon as the nor’easter moves farther out
into the Atlantic. It appears that other locations in between will have a
fair chance of cloud covers at various levels, although locations across
the Midwest could see breaks in the clouds or high thin clouds during the
time of totality.

Monday night into Tuesday will likely see the threat of heavy rain
blossoming across the South from eastern Texas/eastern Oklahoma expanding
eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley in response to a potent upper
trough approaching from the southern Rockies that will interact with the
influx of Gulf moisture. A few inches of rain will likely be common from
northern Louisiana into southern Arkansas through Wednesday morning with
this setup. In addition, severe thunderstorms are also expected to
develop within the heavy rain area from Tuesday morning onward into
Wednesday morning when a low pressure system is forecast to develop over
Texas. The heaviest rains and severe storms should begin to head farther
east by Wednesday morning into the Mid-South as the low pressure system
intensifies and tracks toward the east-northeast.

Meanwhile, moisture from the next Pacific system is forecast to bring the
next round of precipitation into the Pacific Northwest by later today and
spread into the northern Rockies on Tuesday. Much of the Southwest into
the Four Corners will remain dry with some gusty winds as a dry cold front
passes through. As for fire weather, it appears that the area of Critical
Risk of Fire Weather will be confined to western Texas per the Storm
Prediction center.

Forecast high temperatures will tend to be at or above average and mild to
warm over much of the central/eastern U.S. today ahead of the system over
the Midwest/Plains. The greatest anomalies will be in the lower Great
Lakes vicinity, where temperatures into the 60s and 70s are upwards of
15-20 degrees above normal. The frontal boundary sagging southward and
increasing coverage of precipitation chances will bring cooler
temperatures from the Tennessee Valley west through the ArkLaTex and into
portions of the Southern Plains/Rockies Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast
to warm up by 10-15 degrees over the Northern Plains Tuesday following one
more chilly day on Monday. An expanding area of warm, above average
temperatures will spread inland from California into the Great Basin
Tuesday as an upper-level ridge builds in.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Apr 07 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024 – 12Z Tue Apr 09 2024

…Wet snow and high winds across the northern High Plains today are
expected to gradually become less intense by tonight…

…Mixed rain and wet snow spread east across the northern Plains into
tonight as showers and thunderstorms move across the Midwest, Mid-South,
Great Lakes toward the central Appalachians Monday morning…

…Threat of heavy rain quickly emerges across the western Gulf states
later on Monday and then expands further into the Mid-South by Tuesday
morning…

…Critical to Extreme Fire Weather Risk continues over portions of the
central/southern High Plains today with improvements on Monday…

An intense low pressure system, likely reaching peak intensity early this
Sunday morning, has continued to impact much of the High Plains and nearby
Rockies with winds locally gusting over hurricane force. The cold air
mass behind this intense storm is supporting wet snow across the northern
High Plains into the northern Rockies. The combination of wet snow in the
midst of the high winds has resulted in blizzard conditions locally over
western Nebraska. Meanwhile, plenty of warm air is wrapping around the
eastern side of the storm with bands of showers and thunderstorms sweeping
through the northern and central Plains. The intense storm is expected to
gradually weaken today as it moves generally toward the upper Midwest.
Mixed rain and wet snow are expected across the northern Plains by tonight
as showers and embedded thunderstorms move into the Great Lakes and down
the Mississippi Valley by early on Monday. The rain/snow over the
northern Plains is expected to taper off by Monday night when the low
pressure system weakens further and heads toward southern Canada by
Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, the huge circulation associated with the weakening nor’easter
has been slow to exit New England, with some wet snow and rain still
affecting Maine and the Cape Cod area early Sunday morning. The
precipitation is expected to taper off this morning as the huge storm
begins to move out into the Atlantic. Colder air wrapping around the huge
storm will lead to below freezing temperatures as far south as the
southern Appalachians early this morning before the April sun and the
arrival warm air from the intense storm over the Plains send temperatures
well up into the 60s to near 70 by this afternoon.

For the total solar eclipse that is scheduled to take place on Monday, it
appears that southern Texas will wake up to considerable clouds Monday
morning with a resurgence of warm and moist air from the Gulf of Mexico.
In contrast, New England will likely wake up to clearing skies with cold
temperatures into the 20s Monday morning under a fresh snow cover from the
recent nor’easter. There will probably be some breaks in the clouds from
northern Arkansas to central Ohio behind a front, and mostly cloudy
farther northeast from eastern Ohio to western portions of New York.

Beginning late on Monday into Tuesday, a threat of heavy rain will quickly
emerge across the western Gulf states and then expands further into the
Mid-South in response to a return of Gulf moisture which will then
interact with an upper trough arriving from the southern Rockies. In
contrast, very dry conditions combined with strong downslope winds from
the Rockies will keep fire danger at critical to locally extreme levels
across the central to southern High Plains with some improvements on
Monday. Meanwhile, moisture from the next Pacific system is forecast to
bring the next round of precipitation into the Pacific Northwest by later
on Monday into Tuesday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Apr 06 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024

…Winter Storm to develop over the northern High Plains and nearby
foothills of the Rockies with high winds possible later today into
Sunday…

…Severe thunderstorms possible later today across the central Plains,
shifting toward the Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

…High winds will impact much of the High Plains today, reaching into the
Great Plains on Sunday…

…Critical Fire Weather Risk continues over Central/Southern High
Plains…

…Warm weekend ahead for Central U.S.; East and West Coasts remain below
average…

A low pressure system currently intensifying over the central High Plains
will be the focus of high winds, severe thunderstorms, and snow across the
mid-section of the country for the remainder of the weekend. The
highly-amplified upper trough that has ushered a fresh dose of cold air
into much of the western U.S. will continue to support mountain snow today
from the Great Basin to the Four Corners and up across the northern and
central Rockies. Meanwhile, the tight pressure gradient ahead of a potent
cold front will bring high winds across much of the central and southern
High Plains today. As the low pressure system intensifies further over
the central High Plains, the focus of the snow will gradually lift toward
the northern High Plains by tonight ahead of a nearly stationary front.
The snow is expected to become heavy from near the foothills of the
northern Rockies to the northern High Plains later today and into Sunday.
Anywhere between 6-12 inches of snow is possible with 1-2 feet more likely
at higher elevations (Big Horns, Shirley, Laramie Mountains). The winds
just behind the intense low pressure center will likely become very strong
and gusty, possibly resulting in blizzard conditions in these areas. The
strongest winds could occur near the foothills of northern Colorado where
winds could be damaging at times from Saturday night into early Sunday.
Farther south, the persistently dry downslope winds from the Rockies will
keep fire danger from critical to locally extreme levels across the
central to southern High Plains through the next couple of days.

On the warm side of the system, severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the intensifying low pressure system and the associated potent cold front
across the central Plains, mainly later today and into early on Sunday.
Sunday night should see the heavy snow and high winds to begin winding
down across the northern High Plains as the low pressure system weakens
and slowly moves farther to the east. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to expand farther east into the upper Midwest and farther south
into the Mississippi Valley along the cold front.

Meanwhile, more snow showers are expected to continue today from the
central Appalachians up through the lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England as the circulation of a huge nor’easter will be slow
to exit into the Atlantic. An additional few inches of new snow with
locally up to 6 inches is possible across northern New England today
before sunshine returns on Sunday. High temperatures will remain below
average along the East Coast into Monday morning thanks to the cloudiness.
Meanhwile, a pronounced ridge will support warmer than average
temperatures across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley this weekend.
In contrast, northern New England will wake up to temperatures in the 20s
Monday morning with clearing skies while southern Texas will be under
considerable cloudiness prior to the total solar eclipse.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Apr 05 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024

…Wet snow lingers over northern New England into Saturday…

…Widespread mountain snow moves across the interior western U.S…

…High Winds expected to impact the Four Corners today, spreading across
the Rockies and High Plains on Saturday, reaching into the central Plains
by Sunday…

…Severe thunderstorms possible over the central Plains later on Saturday
into early Sunday…

…Critical Fire Risk for central/southern High Plains through this
weekend…

The nor’easter that has been impacting New England with heavy snow inland
and strong winds near the coast will gradually weaken but will take its
time exiting into the Atlantic. Widespread wet snow mixed with rain over
the lower elevations can be expected to continue through today before
becoming more scattered on Saturday. 4-8 inches of new snow may still
accumulate as the parent low lingers nearby. The snow is expected to
taper off to snow showers by Sunday morning as the huge circulation of the
system finally moves farther away into the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, a rather dynamic upper trough along with the associated surface
low pressure system are pushing into the interior western U.S. This
system will bring widespread mountain snow across the Great Basin today,
followed by the northern and central Rockies on Saturday. The potent cold
front trailing south from the low pressure center will likely impact the
Four Corners states with high winds today into tonight as the front
approaches and forcefully passes through the region.
By Saturday, this system will consolidate and quickly intensify as it
emerges over the Front Range. High winds, warm weather and low dew points
will support a critical fire danger over parts of the central and southern
High Plains through at least Sunday. Winds could become especially strong
and potentially damaging near the foothills of the central Rockies
Saturday night into early Sunday right behind the intensifying low
pressure system. Wind-driven rain is forecast to quickly expand across
the central Plains Saturday night into early Sunday around the rapidly
intensifying system, with severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain
possible just ahead of the low center.

With a huge omega upper-level blocking pattern setting up across the U.S.
through the weekend, below average temperatures are expected across the
West and East while above average temperatures will remain over the
central U.S.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 04 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024

…Heavy snow over Upstate New York, Northern New England, the Sierra
Nevada Mountains, and Central Appalachians on Thursday…

…Moderate to heavy snow over the Northern Intermountain Region on
Friday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Ohio Valley…

A deep storm over the Great Lakes and the Northeast will slowly move off
the Northeast Coast by Saturday. The system will produce heavy, wet snow
over north-central New England and northeast New York and later spread
north through Maine on Thursday. Snowfall rates then decrease, but snow
continues over Northern New England into Friday. Snowfall accumulations of
1-2 feet are 60 to 70 % likelihood for much of Northern New England and
the northeast part of the Adirondacks. Furthermore, heavy snow will
develop over parts of the Central Appalachians.

The system will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind. The
combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will lead to dangerous
travel conditions, with whiteout conditions and snow-covered roads. The
combination of wet snow, high snow load, and strong wind gusts could also
result in tree damage and power outages.

Moreover, prolonged onshore winds will continue through Thursday,
resulting in moderate coastal flooding for portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Coast. Impacts include widespread
roadway flooding, coastal and bayside flooding, impassable roads, and some
damage to vulnerable structures. Snow will linger over the Central
Appalachians through late Friday night, while the snow will linger over
parts of the Northeast from Friday into Saturday morning. The temperatures
will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the Ohio Valley.
Also, showers and thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley through northern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.

Meanwhile, a front over the Northern High Plains, Great Basin, and
Southern California will move eastward to the Northern/Central/Southern
High Plains by Saturday. The system will create coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Intermountain Region and Northern California on Thursday morning,
expanding into Central/Southern California Thursday evening into Friday.
Heavy snow will develop over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Thursday. The
snow will continue over the Northwest through Saturday. Moderate to heavy
snow will develop over the Northern Intermountain Region on Friday. The
snow will linger over the Sierra Nevada Mountains through Saturday, while
the snow moves into the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern
Rockies Friday evening into Saturday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Apr 03 2024

Valid 12Z Wed Apr 03 2024 – 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024

…Heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes, Upstate New York, and Northern
New England on Wednesday; Heavy snow over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and
Central Appalachians on Thursday…

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England on Wednesday…

…There is a Sight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic Coast to the Southeast Coast and Florida peninsula on
Wednesday…

A deep storm over the Great Lakes will move southeastward to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Thursday evening and northeastward to the Gulf of
Maine by Friday. The system will produce a late-season winter storm across
portions of the Great Lakes and the Northeast from Wednesday into Friday.
The western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan is forecast to
receive heavy snow through Wednesday evening. Snowfall accumulations of as
much as 1 to 2 feet are expected in parts of northern Wisconsin and the
western portion of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan.

The same storm will produce Northeast snow and wind Wednesday through
Friday. Heavy, wet snow and some sleet will spread into the Northeast on
Wednesday and continue into Friday. Portions of northern New York and
Northern New England will likely see significant snow accumulations of
over 12 inches.

The system will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind, and
the combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will lead to dangerous
travel conditions, with whiteout conditions and snow-covered roads. The
combination of wet snow, high snow load, and strong wind gusts could also
result in tree damage and power outages. On Thursday, heavy snow will
develop over parts of the Central Appalachians.

Furthermore, prolonged onshore winds late Wednesday and continuing through
Thursday will result in moderate coastal flooding for portions of the
Northeast Coast. Impacts include widespread roadway flooding, coastal and
bayside flooding, impassable roads, and some damage to vulnerable
structures.

Moreover, along the associated front extending from the Lower Great Lakes
to the Central Appalachians southward to the Central Gulf Coast will move
off most of the East Coast overnight Wednesday. The boundary will aid in
producing showers, and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Southeast Coast. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic
Coast to the Southeast Coast and Florida peninsula through Thursday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk
(level 2/4) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Mid-Atlantic and
Southern New England through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas,
roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The threat of severe
thunderstorms and excessive rainfall ends on Thursday.

Meanwhile, a front moving inland over the Pacific Northwest into Northern
California will move eastward to the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin
and Southwest by Friday. On Wednesday, the system will create coastal rain
and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest/ Northern
Intermountain Region, moving inland to the Northern Intermountain Region,
Great Basin, and Northern California overnight. The snow levels will lower
after the front passes by over the Northwest. The coast/lower elevation
rain and higher elevation snow will continue over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region through Friday.

On Thursday, rain and higher-elevation snow will move into Central
California and expand into the Great Basin. Overnight Thursday, rain will
move into Southern California. Heavy snow will develop over the Sierra
Nevada Mountains on Thursday into Friday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Apr 02 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Apr 02 2024 – 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024

…Heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes/Upper Mississippi Valley on
Tuesday and Wednesday; Heavy snow over Upstate New York and Northern New
England on Wednesday…

…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valleys on Tuesday and two areas of Slight Risk over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic and Florida peninsula on Wednesday…

…There is a Sight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Appalachians on Tuesday…

A deep storm over the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys will move to
Southern New England by Thursday. The system will produce a large,
long-duration winter storm, producing gusty winds and late-season heavy
snow across portions of the Great Lakes and the Northeast from Tuesday
into Friday. The Upper Great Lakes are forecast to receive heavy snow.
Heavy snow will have a 60 to 70 percent likelihood of developing over
Wisconsin by Tuesday evening and expanding into the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan overnight Tuesday. Snow will continue over much of the region
through Wednesday, with additional heavy snow across the Upper Peninsula
of Michigan, before ending on Thursday.

The same storm will produce Northeast snow and wind Wednesday-Friday.
Secondary low-pressure development along the Mid-Atlantic coast will have
a 60 to 70 percent likelihood of bringing heavy, wet snow and some sleet
to the Northeast Wednesday afternoon through Friday. Significant snow
accumulations are likely over Upstate New York and Northern New England.
The system will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind, and
the combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will create a 60 to 70
percent likelihood of hazardous travel due to low visibility and
snow-covered roads. The wet snow and high snow load may also damage trees
and impact infrastructure.

Moreover, along the associated front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to
the Ohio/Middle Mississippi Valleys, showers and severe thunderstorms will
develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Ohio Valley through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. In addition, there is an increased
threat of EF2 � EF5 tornados over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower
Mississippi Valleys. Additionally, there is an increased threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts of 65 knots or greater over parts of the Ohio
Valley and a small portion of the Tennessee Valley. Further, there is an
increased threat of two-inch or greater hail over parts of the Ohio Valley.

The storms will also produce heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a
Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and Central Appalachians through
Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the
most vulnerable.

Showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over two areas as the front
moves across the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast. Therefore, the
SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Mid-Atlantic and a second area over the Florida peninsula
from Wednesday into Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these
thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts,
hail, and a few tornadoes.

However, the threat of excessive rainfall will be limited to a Marginal
Risk over parts of northern Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England from
Wednesday through Thursday morning.

Meanwhile, a front over the Eastern Pacific will move onshore over the
Pacific Northwest by late Tuesday afternoon and move eastward to the
Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and Southern California by Thursday.
The system will create coastal rain and higher-elevation snow moving
inland to the Northern Intermountain Region, Great Basin, and Northern
California overnight Wednesday into Thursday.