Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 12, 2025

January 12, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 12 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025 – 12Z Tue Jan 14 2025

…Critical fire weather conditions will continue for southern California
into early this week…

…Clipper system to bring snow showers to the Great Lakes along with
renewed surge of Arctic air to the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley…

…Rain for the central Gulf Coast today and Georgia/Florida on Monday…

Snow showers that were ongoing early Sunday morning from the northern
Great Basin into the northern and central Rocky Mountains will begin to
taper off today as a surface low tracks toward the Great Lakes region.
Snow showers will linger through Monday from parts of Montana into the
High Plains near a strong frontal boundary but snowfall intensity will be
decreased compared to what occurred Saturday/Saturday night.

The surface low moving into the Great Lakes will have a trailing cold
front that will sweep across the Ohio Valley by Monday morning, bringing a
renewed surge of Arctic air in its wake. High temperatures that are only
in the single digits and teens will affect the northern Plains today with
the cold, clipper-like system continuing eastward through Tuesday morning
with high temperature departures of 10 to 20 degrees from normal following
in its wake, reaching the Midwest on Monday and East Coast for Tuesday.
Snow showers will likely track with the front as it moves east across the
Upper Ohio Valley into the Northeast on Monday, briefly reducing
visibilities.

Fire weather concerns will remain across coastal locations of southern
California today with winds gusting between 30-50 mph early this morning.
Weakening winds are expected into this afternoon/evening as the pressure
gradient weakens across the region. However, a resurgence of gusty winds
is forecast Sunday night into Monday across southern California as
mid-level impulses sink south across the western U.S., allowing for a
re-tightening of the surface pressure gradient and gusty
downslope/offshore winds.

For the Gulf Coast, an area of low pressure will form along a remnant
frontal boundary over the open Gulf waters Sunday night and track toward
the central Gulf Coast. Rain will increase in coverage late this morning
across the upper Texas coast into southern Louisiana and steadily move
east through Sunday night. By Monday morning, rain will be affecting the
Florida Panhandle into portions of southern Alabama/Georgia but rainfall
intensity will diminish throughout the day on Monday. While some light
rain may continue over Florida near a frontal boundary Tuesday morning,
much of the U.S. will see relatively quiet weather.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates It’s ENSO Alert Status on January 9, 2025 – La Nina Has Finally Arrived They Say – Published on January 11, 2025

January 11, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

“Synopsis:   “La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance). “

So we are no longer in ENSO Neutral but officially in La Nina (but we may not stay in La Nina long enough for it to be recorded as an official La Nina for historical purposes.)

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA now describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: La Nina”

It should increase the reliability of the Seasonal Outlook to be issued next Thursday. But will it?

We have included a very interesting ENSO Blog Post by Emily  Becker.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION (LINK)

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak La Niña during the winter seasons, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C . The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) predicts slightly cooler SST anomalies with La Niña persisting through February-April 2025.  The forecast team favors the NMME guidance, predicting weak La Niña conditions through the early spring before transitioning to ENSO-neutral.  Weak La Niña conditions are less likely to result in conventional winter/spring impacts, though predictable signals can still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, La Niña conditions are present and are expected to persist through February-April 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral likely during March-May 2025 (60% chance).  ”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month.

“The dynamical models in the IRI plume continue to predict a weak and a short duration La Niña, as indicated by the Niño-3.4 index values less than -0.5°C. This prediction is also reflected in the latest North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), which continues to predict slightly cooler SSTs and weak La Nina conditions.  The forecast team leaned toward predicting an eventual onset of weak and short-lived La Nina conditions, based on the model guidance and current atmospheric anomalies. Weak La Niña conditions would be less likely to result in conventional winter impacts, though predictable signals could still influence the forecast guidance (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, La Niña conditions are most likely to emerge in November 2024 – January 2025 (59% chance), with a transition to ENSO-neutral most likely by March-May 2025 (61% chance).”

{Author’s Note: Has anything really changed?]

We now provide additional details.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. NDJ stands for November/December/January.

Here is the forecast from last month.

The analysis this month and last month are fairly similar.  But a future El Nino is a bit more in the picture.

Some will need to click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 11, 2025

January 11, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jan 11 2025
Valid 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025 – 12Z Mon Jan 13 2025

…A return to dangerous fire weather concerns for southern California
beginning later today…

…Moderate to locally heavy snow for the parts of the northern to central
Rockies…

…Below average high temperatures for much of the lower 48 this weekend
after departure of southern Mid-Atlantic winter storm…

A significant winter storm that brought widespread impacts to much of the
South over the past couple of days will quickly move away from the East
Coast this morning, leaving light snow showers in its wake for the central
Appalachians and New England. High pressure and quieter weather will
settle into locations east of the Mississippi River through Sunday morning
but more rain is expected for the central Gulf Coast Sunday into Monday as
low pressure organizes in the Gulf of Mexico, sending anomalous moisture
northward. Temperatures will be cold today for the southern/southeastern
U.S. with high temperature departures running 10 to 20 degrees below
average. Below average temperatures will also extend into the Midwest,
Ohio Valley and Northeast but Maine will be close to average for
mid-January. Some moderation of the cold temperatures will occur for
Sunday for the South and East, except for New England which will be near
to above average.

Out West, an upper level trough will continue to advance eastward from the
central Rockies today with moderate to locally heavy snow showers
continuing through Saturday night for northern sections of the Great Basin
and northern/central Rockies in its wake via northwesterly to northerly
flow behind the upper trough axis. Snow will continue near a strong
frontal boundary in central Montana on Sunday but subside elsewhere across
much of the West. By Monday morning, localized snowfall accumulations of 1
to 2 feet are expected for portions of central and southern Montana into
the Big Horn Mountains of Wyoming.

High Temperatures across the West will generally be below average this
weekend while temperatures along the West Coast remain near average
through the weekend. The exception to colder than average high
temperatures for the lower 48 will be in and around the Upper Great Lakes
which will lie on the warm side of low pressure tracking across the
north-central U.S. with colder air filtering into the region behind the
low on Monday.

In southern California, a return to heightened fire weather conditions
will return later today after a brief lull from Friday night. High
pressure will increase across the Great Basin today as a surge of colder
air moves into the region behind a cold front which is forecast to move
into Mexico Sunday morning. Gusty offshore winds along the coast of
southern California support a Critical Risk area for Saturday as
highlighted by the Storm Prediction Center, with these dangerous
conditions continuing into Monday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 10, 2025

January 10, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 10 2025
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 10 2025 – 12Z Sun Jan 12 2025

…Critical fire weather conditions will continue across Southern
California through at least this morning…

…A significant winter storm will continue to bring heavy snow and
disruptive ice across much of the South through Saturday morning…

…Pacific Storm to bring lower elevation rain/mountain snow to the
Pacific Northwest…Great Basin and Rockies through Saturday…

Modified arctic air combined with a moisture-laden area of low pressure
along the Gulf Coast will continue to allow for a broad area of winter
weather impacts from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Southeast today
into early Saturday morning. Areas of light to moderate snow will
translate east from eastern Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas this
morning into and across the Tennessee Valley, eventually reaching the
Mid-Atlantic region tonight. Snowfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches are
expected from near Memphis into the central Appalachians. Sleet and
freezing rain will affect locations just south of the snowfall, with ice
accumulations locally in excess of 0.25 inches from far northeastern
Alabama into northern Georgia and upstate South Carolina. Light snowfall
accumulations (1 to 3 inches) are anticipated farther north from the Ohio
Valley into northern portions of the Mid-Atlantic region. Below average
temperatures from the south-central to southeastern U.S. will moderate
into the weekend but remain roughly 5 to 15 degrees below average on
Saturday into Sunday.

Across the western U.S., strong high pressure over the Great Basin will
begin to weaken during the day today, but Critical fire weather conditions
will continue over coastal locations of Southern California through the
remainder of this morning with localized gusts to near 60 mph. While wind
gusts are likely to weaken into this afternoon and evening, remnant gusty
winds and low relative humidities will continue dangerous conditions into
the afternoon and evening.

Elsewhere across the western U.S., a quick moving cold front will sweep
across the Northwest and Great Basin today, bringing coastal rain to the
Pacific Northwest and mountain snow to the Cascades, northern Great Basin
into the northern and central Rockies. Low pressure associated with the
western U.S. storm system will reach the northern Plains and Upper Midwest
on Saturday/Saturday night, resulting in light (1 to 3 inch) accumulations
for eastern Montana, North Dakota into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 9, 2025

January 9, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 09 2025
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 09 2025 – 12Z Sat Jan 11 2025

…Decreasing light lake-effect snow downwind from the Lower Great Lakes
on Thursday…

…A developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain,
icing, over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley on
Thursday and over the Lower Mississippi Valley to the southern
Mid-Atlantic on Friday…

…Light snow over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday; Light to
moderate snow over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and light snow over parts
of the Northeast on Friday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Southern
California on Thursday…

A developing winter storm will move out of Northern Mexico, advancing
eastward to the Western Gulf Coast by Thursday evening and to the Central
Gulf Coast by Friday morning. The storm will move northeastward to western
Florida by Friday evening and to the southern Mid-Atlantic Coast by
Saturday.

The system will produce a swath of heavy snow along with ice, freezing
rain, from the Southern Plains to the southern Mid-Atlantic by Saturday.
Snowfall totals from 6-8 inches will develop from southeast Oklahoma
through western North Carolina. A quarter inch of ice, freezing rain, will
occur from the Southern Plains to the Lower Mississippi Valley. On Friday,
icing, freezing rain, will move over parts of the Southeast, Southern
Appalachians, and southern Mid-Atlantic, with amounts around a tenth of an
inch.

A large area of moderate winter weather impacts will be associated with
the storm. Some impacts are widespread closures, treacherous travel,
scattered power outages, and downed branches expected from the Red River
Valley and southern Ozarks through the Lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee
Valley, and Southern Appalachians. Some of the heaviest snowfall will be
over the Tennessee Valley, which will be 6 inches on Friday.

Meanwhile, on Thursday, strong high pressure over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region and Great Basin will set up Santa Ana winds over
Southern California. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Critical Risk of fire
weather over parts of Southern California. Winds of 20 to 40 mph, with
stronger winds in the terrain, low relative humidity, and dry fuels have
contributed to the dangerous conditions.

Moreover, on Thursday, exiting upper-level energy and developing weak
upper-level ridging over the Great Lakes will create waning light
lake-effect snow and upslope snow over parts of the Lower Great Lakes and
the Northeast that will end by Friday morning.

Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern Intermountain Region
southward to the Southwest will develop a front extending from the
Northern/Central Plains to the Southern Rockies that will move eastward to
the Upper Great Lakes to the Southern Plains by Friday morning. The
boundary will begin to dissipate by Friday evening. However, the
associated upper-level trough will extend from the Great Lakes
southwestward to Northeastern Mexico by Saturday.

On Thursday, the system will produce light snow over parts of the Upper
Midwest to the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley. In addition, on
Friday, the boundary will deliver light to moderate snow over parts of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians. Additionally, light snow
will develop over parts of the Northeast.

In the meantime, overnight Thursday, a new front will move onshore over
the Pacific Northwest and race eastward to the Northern Plains to the
Great Basin by Saturday. The system will trigger coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest on Friday and
overnight Friday moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region. By Saturday, the light to moderate snow will expand
into parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and Great Basin.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 8, 2025

January 8, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 08 2025
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025 – 12Z Fri Jan 10 2025

…Moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes on
Wednesday…

…A developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain,
icing, over parts of the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley late
Wednesday night into Thursday…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern Rockies/Northern
Plains and Southern Rockies/Southern High Plains on Wednesday: Light snow
over parts of the Upper Midwest on Thursday…

…There is an Extremely Critical Fire Weather Area for portions of the
Southern California Coast…

Cold high pressure extending from the Central Plains to western Ontario,
Canada, moves to the Mid-Atlantic by Friday. The cold air and upper-level
energy will aid in producing moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind
from the Great Lakes on Wednesday and will begin to taper off on Thursday.
In addition, moderate to heavy upslope snow will develop over parts of
the Northeast, and light to moderate upslope snow over the Central
Appalachians will develop on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, strong high pressure over parts of the Great Basin and low
pressure dropping into the Gulf of California will continue to support
Santa Ana winds and a dangerous fire weather event over portions of
Southern California on Wednesday. The SPC has issued a Extremely Critical
Fire Weather Area along portions of the Southern California Coast.
Sustained winds reaching 30 to 40 mph, with stronger winds in the terrain,
along with low relative humidity, and dry fuels will contribute to the
dangerous conditions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to
continue on Thursday for portions of Southern California.

Moreover, on Wednesday, a deep upper low over Northwestern Mexico will
open and move to the Southern Rockies to the Southern Plains by Friday.
The system will create impactful winter weather on Thursday for portions
of the Southern Plains before intensifying as it expands across the Lower
Mississippi Valley overnight Thursday into Friday. Snowfall totals will be
the greatest, 4 to 8 inches, from portions of North Texas across Arkansas
into the Tennessee Valley. Hazardous driving conditions can be expected
through the swath of winter weather. Additionally, rain/freezing rain will
develop over parts of Central Texas into southern Arkansas and northern
Louisiana. Over this region, scattered ice amounts of 0.10 inches will
fall on Thursday.

Furthermore, additional upper-level energy will move over the Pacific
Northwest/Northern Intermountain Region Wednesday morning and reach the
Southern Rockies and the Upper Great Lakes by Friday. The energy will aid
in the development of a new front over the Northern/Central Plains into
the Central Rockies that will move eastward to the Upper Great Lakes to
the Southern Plains by Friday.

The new energy will create a short-lived light coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest on early
Wednesday morning. By Wednesday evening, light snow will develop over
parts of the Northern Rockies, expanding into parts of the Northern Plains
and Central Rockies by Thursday morning. By Thursday night, light snow
will extend from the Northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the
Central/Southern Rockies and Central/Southern Plains. By Friday morning,
the light snow will move into the Upper Great Lakes and Middle Mississippi
Valley, while continuing over the Southern Plains.

Moreover, by Friday, a new front moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest
will trigger coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 7, 2025

January 7, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 07 2025
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 07 2025 – 12Z Thu Jan 09 2025

…Moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes on
Tuesday and Wednesday…

…A Developing Winter Storm will produce snow and rain/freezing rain,
icing, over parts of Texas on Wednesday…

…Light snow over parts of the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central/Southern Rockies on Tuesday and over the Northern Rockies/Northern
High Plains on Wednesday…

…There is a Critical Risk of fire weather over parts of Southern
California on Tuesday and Wednesday, with an Extremely Critical Risk for
portions of Los Angeles and Ventura counties on Wednesday…

Cold high pressure over the Northern High Plains will move southeastward
to the Ohio Valley by Thursday. The cold air and upper-level energy will
aid in producing moderate to heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the
Great Lakes through Thursday. In addition, moderate to heavy upslope snow
will develop over parts of Northern New England, and light to moderate
upslope snow over the Central Appalachians will develop through Thursday.

Meanwhile, strong high pressure will develop over parts of the Great
Basin, setting up Santa Ana winds over Southern California on Tuesday,
that will continue into Wednesday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a
Critical Risk Fire Weather Outlook over parts of Southern California on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with an Extremely Critical Outlook for portions of
Los Angeles and Ventura counties on Wednesday. Winds of 20 to 25 mph on
Tuesday, increasing up to 40 mph on Wednesday, with stronger gusts in
terrain-favored areas, along with low relative humidity, and dry fuels
will contribute to dangerous conditions.

Moreover, on Tuesday, upper-level energy over Southern California will
move southward to Northwestern Mexico, creating a deep upper low over the
region by Wednesday. The energy will begin to move eastward over Northern
Mexico by Thursday. By Tuesday morning, light to moderate snow will
develop over parts of the Great Basin and the Northern/Central Rockies.
Light to moderate snow will develop over parts of the Southern Rockies by
Tuesday evening.

The system will produce light snow over West Texas on Wednesday before a
more significant storm on Thursday. Many areas from northern Texas,
including the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, will have at least some chance
(>30%) of wintry weather. With cold air already in place, a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain is forecast for the Southern Plains, which
may cause hazardous driving conditions, starting late Wednesday night and
continuing into Thursday morning.

Further, additional upper-level energy will move over the Pacific
Northwest Wednesday morning and reach the Central Rockies by Thursday,
aiding in the development of a new front from the Northern/Central Plains
into the Central Rockies. The new energy will create a short-lived light
coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest
on early Wednesday morning. By Wednesday evening, light snow will develop
over parts of the Northern Rockies, expanding into parts of the Northern
Plains and Central Rockies by Thursday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 6, 2025

January 6, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 06 2025
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 06 2025 – 12Z Wed Jan 08 2025

…Moderate to heavy snow from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic through
late Monday night…

…Light rain/freezing rain over parts of the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic on Monday...

…There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Southeast on Monday…

A significant storm over the Ohio Valley will move eastward off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. On Monday, a major disruptive winter
storm will affect the area from the Ohio Valley to the Mid-Atlantic,
leading to severe travel delays. The storm will produce moderate to heavy
snow from parts of the Ohio Valley through to the Mid-Atlantic. The snow
will continue into late Monday night over the Mid-Atlantic.

The system will produce 6-12 inches of snow across the Mid-Atlantic,
including the Washington, D.C. metro area. Travelers should anticipate
significant disruptions. An additional 2-4 inches of snow will fall across
portions of the Ohio Valley and Central Appalachians, where travel
disruptions will continue.

Furthermore, light icing/freezing rain will develop over parts of Ohio
Valley to the Mid-Atlantic, ending by Monday evening over the
Mid-Atlantic. Dangerous travel conditions will develop over the region.

Moreover, as the associated front moves across the Southeast, strong to
severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the region on Monday.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast through Tuesday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, isolated tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

In addition, on Monday, light lake-effect snow will be ongoing downwind
from the Great Lakes and upslope snow over parts of the Northeast. In the
wake of the storm, on Tuesday, light to moderate lake-effect snow will
continue downwind from the Great Lakes and into upslope regions of
Northern New England.

Meanwhile, on Monday, upper-level energy over the Northwest will move
southward to Northwestern Mexico by Tuesday night, creating a deep
upper-level trough over the Southwest. The energy will produce coastal
rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California through Monday afternoon. Light snow will continue
over the Northern Intermountain Region, the Great Basin, and the Northern
Rockies by Monday evening.

The light snow will expand into parts of the Central Rockies overnight
Monday and into the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. By Tuesday evening, light
snow will expand into parts of the Central/Southern High Plains. Further,
additional upper-level energy will come onshore over the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday evening into Wednesday. The new energy will create light coastal
rain and higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: – Posted on January 5, 2025

January 5, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 05 2025
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 05 2025 – 12Z Tue Jan 07 2025

…Heavy snow from the Central Plains to the Mid-Atlantic through late
Monday night with damaging ice, freezing rain, accumulations…

…0.25 to 0.50 inches of freezing rain over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valley on Sunday and light freezing rain over parts of
the Mid-Atlantic on Monday…

…There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

A significant storm over the Southern Plains will move eastward to the
Mid-Atlantic Coast by Monday evening. On Sunday, a major disruptive winter
storm will affect the area from Kansas to Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians, leading to severe travel delays. The storm will reach the
Mid-Atlantic region by Sunday evening and continue to impact the area
through Monday. The storm will produce heavy snowfall and wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph, creating blizzard conditions in parts of Kansas and
Missouri. The snow will significantly reduce visibilities, and snowfall
amounts will surpass 15 inches (the heaviest in a decade), which will make
travel extremely hazardous, with impassable roads. Additionally, a band of
8-14 inches of snow is expected to extend from northeast Missouri through
the Central Appalachians, with a few inches of sleet likely in southern
Illinois and Indiana. Travelers should anticipate significant disruptions
along this path.

Furthermore, significant icing/freezing rain will spread from central
Kansas through the Central Appalachians into Monday. Dangerous travel
conditions, widespread tree damage, and prolonged power outages are
expected along this corridor. Some regions may experience ice
accumulations exceeding half an inch.

On Monday, moderate to heavy snow will extend from southern Illinois to
the Mid-Atlantic. In addition, widespread light freezing rain will also
extend from Kentucky to the Mid-Atlantic. The snow will wind down by
Tuesday morning, with light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians.

Furthermore, on Sunday, as the associated front crosses the Southern
Plains and moves into the Lower Mississippi Valley, severe thunderstorms
will develop over parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the
SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Southeast as
the boundary moves into the Southeast on Monday. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of
the Southeast from Monday into Tuesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornados, and a minimal threat of hail.

Meanwhile, cold air moving over the Great Lakes and upper-level energy
over the Great Lakes and Northeast will create moderate to heavy
lake-effect snow downwind from Lake Ontario through Monday morning. In
addition, light to moderate lake-effect snow will develop downwind from
the Upper Great Lakes and Lake Erie through Tuesday morning.

Furthermore, weak onshore flow and multiple weakening fronts move onshore
over the Northwest. The systems will produce coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest and Northern
California through Monday afternoon. Light snow will continue over the
Northern Intermountain Region, the Great Basin, and the Northern Rockies
overnight Monday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) – What it is and why it is important. – Published January 4, 2024

January 4, 2025Posted inweatherNo Comments

From the December 31, 2024 update of the January Weather Outlook:

Dynamical model forecasts of the Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) index are in agreement favoring continued eastward progression of the MJO signal over the next two weeks, which typically leads to increased troughing over the central and eastern Contiguous United States (CONUS), consistent with a negative Arctic Oscillation and [Author added for clarity: “and a negative] North Atlantic Oscillation. Overall, the more certain MJO forecasts and subsequent eastern CONUS troughing will allow for the potential for cooler air from the North entering the eastern CONUS during January.

So I thought it would be useful to discuss the MJO and raise the question as to the validity of the above statement.

From the NOAA CPC:

The discussion above is confusing and may not be fully explanatory. It is clear that the CPC believes this instance of the MJO will be stronger than usual and interact with the development of the La Nina. Weather-speak can be confusing. “Constructively interfering” actually means enhancing. The last bullet point is to me concerning. Are they saying that the MJO is causing the Negative AO and NAO?  I think that is a stretch (however, at the end of the article I revised my initial assessment after a few hours of additional research on Sunday a.m.) but there is a lot I do not understand about the MJO which is itself not well understood.

So I am not prepared to tackle that last issue (I did tackle it after publication late Saturday night/early Sunday morning raising my confidence in the January  Outlook).  Instead in parts II and III of this article, I present some basic information on this strange but important weather pattern: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).

Some will have to click on “Read More” to access the body of this article.   It is mostly for those who are interested in learning about some of the less talked about patterns caused by the rotation of the Earth.