Posts by Sig Silber

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 10 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 10 2024 – 12Z Mon Aug 12 2024

…Unsettled weather extends from the Southwest to the central U.S. over
the next few days, with chances for scattered flash flooding and severe
thunderstorms…

…Lingering heavy rain potential exists across the eastern Carolinas this
weekend…

…Above average temperatures continue across the West today before
confining to the southern Plains and Gulf Coast by early next week…

The upper level pattern and anomalous atmospheric moisture content in
place across the Southwest and Plains will remain conducive for more
active weather through this weekend. Starting with the Southwest, Four
Corners, and southern/central Rockies, the main threat associated with
developing thunderstorms will be related to intense rainfall rates and
flash flooding. Uncertainty remains on where exactly the heaviest rainfall
will occur, but sensitive terrain and burn scars are most likely to see
impacts. This flash flooding threat also extends westward to the southern
California ranges through Sunday, where slow-moving thunderstorms over
complex terrain could lead to isolated flash flooding concerns. Shifting
to the central and southern Plains, convection is expected to become more
organized as a lingering frontal boundary provides a focus for heavy
rainfall potential from Oklahoma to southern Missouri. After an initial
round of storms over central Oklahoma tonight, another round of possibly
slow-moving convection is expected Sunday night from southeast KS and
northeast OK to the western Ozarks. Several inches of rainfall are
possible within a short period of time, which could lead to scattered
instances of flash flooding. Scattered thunderstorms are also forecast to
extend throughout much of the central and northern Plains, but quick
forward motions and lesser coverage should keep the flash flooding threat
localized. In addition to heavy rainfall, these storms could contain
isolated hail and damaging wind gusts.

After recently getting doused by T.S. Debby with several days of tropical
downpours, the eastern Carolinas may see additional bouts of heavy
rainfall over the next few days as sufficient atmospheric moisture content
remain in place along a stalled frontal boundary. This stationary front
combined with diurnal sea breeze activity could spark numerous slow-moving
thunderstorms capable of containing intense rainfall rates. Given most
soils remain overly saturated across the Carolinas, the flash flooding
threat will remain slightly elevated. Residents and visitors are advised
to have multiple ways of receiving warnings and never drive through
flooded roadways.

Temperatures throughout the Lower 48 into the beginning of next week will
feature widespread below average highs from the Plains to the Northeast
underneath broad high pressure, with forecast high temperatures in the 70s
and low 80s. Summer heat will remain confined to the Southern Tier,
including the Southwest today before a cooling trend commences. Meanwhile,
oppressive heat and humidity will continue and rebuild across the southern
Plains and Gulf Coast by Sunday and Monday as highs soar into the upper
90s and triple digits. This equates to around 10 degrees above the
climatological mean for mid-August, but forecast highs at the moment don’t
appear to threaten any daily records.

Elsewhere, continued dry conditions and ongoing wildfires will continue to
produce elevated fire weather conditions and poor air quality across parts
of the Northwest and northern Great Basin. Little changes in the overall
weather pattern should maintain this environment.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 09 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 09 2024 – 12Z Sun Aug 11 2024

…Dangerous flooding and severe weather continue as Debby accelerates
through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today…

…Below average temperatures persist across the Northern to Central
Plains, Upper to Mid Mississippi Valley…

…Above average temperatures continue across the West into the South, but
with less record highs compared to previous days…

…Elevated fire weather conditions and poor air quality continue across
Great Basin…

After a slow trek through the Carolinas over the last 24 hours, Debby is
simultaneously weakening and accelerating northeastward along the spine of
the Blue Ridge. Unfortunately, even in Debby’s weakened state, dangerous
flash flooding and severe weather will continue through tomorrow across
portions of the Carolinas, Mid-Atlantic, Interior Northeast, and New
England. Across the Carolinas, additional heavy rainfall is expected to
batter the region today, which will exacerbate ongoing catastrophic and
considerable flash flooding as storm total rainfall approaches 15-25
inches in spots. Closer to Debby’s immediate track, 3 to 7 inches of
rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states will produce
considerable to locally catastrophic flooding impacts through tomorrow
morning. The same cells responsible for this dangerous and prolific
rainfall are also capable of producing a few tornadoes. In the short term
this morning, a few tornadoes remain possible across portions of the
Mid-Atlantic (North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland), although the risk
will shift into the Northeast (New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and
southeast New York) later today.

The northeast acceleration of Debby is in response to the large scale
closed low associated with a strong cold front stretching from the Great
Lakes, southwestward through the Plains. Below average temperatures in
the wake of this strong front already encompass the Northern to Central
Plains, Upper to Middle Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes, which will
plunge southward into portions of the Southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and
Tennessee Valley today and tomorrow. The forecast remains on track for a
few record low maximum temperatures today across portions of the Central
Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley and over northern Minnesota with
forecast high temperatures nearly 20-25 degrees below normal.

In contrast, above average temperatures will continue over the next few
days across much of the West into Texas, the South, and Gulf Coast as the
front stalls out to the north. A few record highs still possible across
portions of the central to eastern Gulf Coast over the next few days,
although the number of overall record highs across the country continue to
decrease from previous days. Even with less record high potential, the
current heat has led to a swath of Heat Advisories across portions of
southeast Texas and eastward along the Gulf coast.

In addition to the heat across portions of the Northwest and West, the dry
conditions, low relative humidities and gusty winds will maintain a fire
weather threat tomorrow over northern Nevada and southern Idaho. Smoke
from current fires will also continue to produce poor air quality across
the Pacific Northwest in general.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 08 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 08 2024 - 12Z Sat Aug 10 2024

...Debby is forecast to spread excessive rainfall, strong winds and
thunderstorms up through much of the Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians and
Northeast through Saturday morning...

...Excessive Heat concerns continue across the Deep South while cooler air
settles over the Central U.S. through the end of the week...

...Monsoonal storms persist over parts of the Southwest, Four Corners and
High Plains...

Tropical Storm Debby is likely to weaken as it moves from the South
Carolina coast and into the Carolina Piedmont tonight before weakening
into a Tropical Depression sometime on Friday while it moves up into the
Central Appalachians of Virginia, Maryland and Pennsylvania. Debby is
expected to produce an additional 4 to 8 inches of rainfall with locally
higher amounts, across portions of southeastern North Carolina leading to
maximum storm total amounts as high as 15 inches. There's a High Risk (at
least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding from coastal
North Carolina, into the Piedmont and up through the Blue
Ridge/Appalachians of Virginia. Considerable flooding is expected across
portions of eastern South Carolina and southeast North Carolina through
Friday.

From central North Carolina northward across portions of Virginia, 3 to 7
inches with local amounts to 10 inches, are expected through Friday. This
rainfall will likely result in areas of considerable flash and urban
flooding, with river flooding possible. From portions of Maryland north
through Upstate New York and Vermont, 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to
6 inches, are expected through Friday night. This will likely result in
areas of considerable flash and urban flooding as well as river flooding.
There's a Moderate Risk (at least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall over portions
of north-central Virginia up through central Pennsylvania/New York for
Friday as Debby moves up the spine of the Appalachians. Things rain, wind
and thunderstorms should come to an end on Saturday when Debby gets swept
up into a powerful upper low propagating across southern Canada.

Elsewhere, a strong cold front associated with the potent upper low in
Canada will drag an anomalously cool airmass down into the mid-section of
the country. High temperatures in the 60s and 70s across the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley will represent
a 15-25 degree negative anomaly for those areas, where some records may be
tied or broken. Strong southerly flow beneath a building mid-level ridge
will support the continuation of a heat wave from Texas into the central
Gulf Coast. Heat Advisories and isolated Excessive Heat Warnings are in
effect for those areas. Conditions should improve a bit this weekend
before worsening again next week.

Monsoonal storms will continue over much of the Southwest, Four Corners
and High Plains over the next few days. Diurnal convection along a stalled
out surface front will promote intense afternoon/evening storms capable of
producing heavy rainfall. A pair of Slight Risks (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall (one today and one on Friday) are in effect across
portions of the Sangre De Cristo Mountains. Wildfires in the Northwest
will contribute to poor air quality over much of Oregon and western
Washington State. Heat Advisories are also in effect for western
Washington.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
348 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024
Thu Aug 08 2024 – 00Z Sat Aug 10 2024

…Debby to move slowly inland through northeast South Carolina into
western North Carolina Wednesday night-Thursday, then more rapidly
northeastward Friday-Saturday from the Central Appalachians into Northern
New England…

…Heavy rains, flash and river flooding likely along and to the north and
northeast of Debby, while isolated tornadoes possible to the east of the
track…

…Much above average temperatures to persist next two days across much of
the West into the Southern Plains and South, while below average
temperatures spread across the Northern and Central Plains and Upper
Mississippi Valley…

…Record heat coming to and end from the Southwest into the South by the
end of the week…

…Fire weather threat and poor air quality continue from the Pacific
Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin…

Debby will make its second U.S. landfall Wednesday evening along the South
Carolina coast and push slowly northwestward through northeast South
Carolina Wednesday night into Thursday, across western North Carolina
during Thursday and then accelerate to the northeast from the Central
Appalachians into Northern New England Friday into Saturday. Sustained
winds with Debby will be lessening as the storm pushes inland and weakens,
with heavy rains, flash flooding and river flooding being the primary
threat as the system pushes northwestward and then more to the north and
northeast over the next few days. The continued slow motions of Debby
through Thursday will produce rainfall totals in the 4-8 inch range, with
locally heavier amounts, across northeast South Carolina, southeast to
central North Carolina into western Virginia, eastern West Virginia and
far western Maryland. Flood watches are currently in effect across these
areas, affecting approximately 19 million people. As the storm begins to
accelerate to the northeast on Friday through the northern Mid-Atlantic,
northern NY State and northern New England, expected precipitation amounts
will likely be less than when the storm is slower moving. Still, rainfall
totals of 2-4″ likely across central to eastern Pennsylvania, central to
northern NY State into northern New England, continuing the threat of
flash and river flooding across these areas.

No let up to the much above average temperatures over the next two days
across much of the West into the Southern Plains and South, with record
high potential Thursday across portions of Texas and the northeast Gulf
Coast from southeast Louisiana into North Florida and again on Friday from
southeast Louisiana into the Florida Panhandle. While temperatures are
still above average from the West into the South over the next few days,
it does appear that record high potential will be coming to an end by the
weekend, Heat advisories are currently in effect across the Southern
Plains into the South, affecting nearly 44 million people.

In contrast to the much above average temperatures and record heat across
the South, much cooler air will continue to sink southward in the wake of
a strong front currently stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley into
the Northern Plains. This strong front will push much below average
temperatures southward into the Central Plains and Upper to Mid
Mississippi Valley over the next two days. There is even potential for a
few record cold maximum temperatures on Thursday and Friday from southeast
Wyoming into southwest to southern Nebraska and across northern Minnesota.

No let up to the fire weather risk and poor air quality from ongoing fires
for the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin.
These regions will continue to see dry conditions with low relative
humidities and gusty winds, supporting the threat for additional wildfires
and exacerbating efforts to control ongoing fires. Red Flag warnings and
air quality alerts are in effect across portions of Washington State,
Oregon, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, Nevada, Utah and Arizona.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Aug 06 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024 – 12Z Thu Aug 08 2024

…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause potentially catastrophic
Flash and Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds
across portions of north Florida and the Southeast…

…There’s potential for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms
across portions of the Northern High Plains, Midwest, Lower Great Lakes,
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic today…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Central/Southeastern
California and the Southwest; Heat Advisories over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley…

Tropical Storm Debby is expected to track up along the Southeast Coast
over the next couple of days. Potentially historic heavy rainfall across
southeast Georgia and eastern South Carolina through Friday will likely
result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will likely
result in considerable flooding impacts from northern North Carolina
through portions of the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England through
Sunday morning. Debby is expected to produce potentially historic rainfall
totals of 10-20 inches, with maximum amounts of 25 inches. A High Risk (at
least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for parts of southeastern Georgia through eastern South Carolina and into
far southeastern North Carolina today. On Wednesday, another High Risk
will encircle portions of South Carolinas central coast up into
southeastern North Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov.

A cold front will stall out over the Northeast and act as a focus for
thunderstorm activity from the Ohio Valley through the northern
Mid-Atlantic and into parts of the Tri-State area today. Tropical moisture
from Debby will interact with the stationary front in the Northeast and
likely generate heavy rainfall over parts of eastern Pennsylvania,
northern Maryland, New Jersey, and the NYC metro area. A Moderate Risk (at
least 40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect
for the aforementioned areas. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for portions of northern Ohio,
Pennsylvania and western/northern New Jersey, where damaging wind gusts
and hail are possible. A Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall
is also in effect for parts of southern New Jersey, northeastern Maryland
and northern Delaware, where lingering showers may produce isolated flash
flooding Wednesday morning before the stationary front turns cold and
moves offshore.

Elsewhere, mid-level energy propagating over the Northern High Plains will
support thunderstorm activity today. The Storm Prediction Center issued a
Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and
strong to severe wind outflow gusts with this activity. Isolated instances
of Flash Flooding are also possible from these storms. Surface high
pressure will penetrate the Northern/Central Plains over the coming days,
and usher in a cooler airmass with high temperatures in the 60s and 70s,
representing a 15-25 degree departure from normal. Warm air will remain
locked in over much of the southern tier states with a heat wave
developing over the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.

Monsoonal storms are forecast to continue across parts of the Southwest
and Four Corners this week. Shortwave energy will promote excessive
rainfall across southern Arizona today. A Slight Risk of Flash Flooding is
in effect for far southern Arizona as a result. Upper-level ridging across
much of the Southwestern United States will continue to generate Excessive
Heat, particularly across portions of central and southern California,
into the Desert Southwest and the Intermountain West where Excessive Heat
Warnings and Heat Advisories are in effect.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Aug 05 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Aug 05 2024 – 12Z Wed Aug 07 2024

..Hurricane Debby is expected to cause potentially catastrophic Flash and
Urban Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across
portions of Florida and the Southeast…

…There’s potential for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms
across portions of the Upper Midwest, Lower Great Lakes and Northeast
through Tuesday…

…There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Central/Southeastern
California and the Southwest and Heat Advisories over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley…

Hurricane Debby will make landfall this morning over Florida’s Big Bend
region, where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Life-threatening storm
surge is possible along portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast, where Storm
Surge Warnings are in effect. Widespread thunderstorms are likely to
continue across Florida and spread into Georgia and the Southeast Coast
today. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for portions of northern Florida through
southern/coastal Georgia and into South Carolina’s central coast, where
the chance for tornadoes is greatest. Elsewhere, Tropical Storm conditions
are are expected along Florida’s west coast including the Tampa Bay area
today.

Potentially historic heavy rainfall, associated with Hurricane Debby,
across southeast Georgia and South Carolina through Friday morning will
likely result in areas of catastrophic flooding. Heavy rainfall will
likely result in considerable flooding impacts from portions of central
and northern Florida through the Coastal Plains of the Carolinas through
Friday. There are High Risks (at least 70%) of Excessive Rainfall
stretching from Florida’s Big Bend region up through coastal Georgia and
into South Carolina’s southern coast today followed by another on Tuesday
along the Georgia–South Carolina Coastline. Anywhere between 7-15 inches
of rain, with locally higher amounts, are possible from north-central
Florida to South Carolina’s northern coast over the next 48 hours. For
more information go to hurricanes.gov.

A slow moving cold front extending from the Northern High Plains to the
Northeast will be the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the northern tier states down to the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic over the
next couple of days. Today, showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop and potentially produce severe thunderstorms and Excessive
Rainfall over parts of the Upper Midwest and interior Northeast. Slight
Risks of Flash Flooding (at least 15%) and Severe Storms are in effect
over the aforementioned areas today. The threat for heavy rainfall shifts
into the New York Tri-State area on Tuesday where another Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect due to the potential involvement of
tropical moisture from Debby. A low pressure system is expected to develop
over the Northern High Plains of Montana on Tuesday and contribute to
supercell/severe thunderstorm activity that evening. Severe wind
gusts/hail will be the primary threats from these storms.

High temperatures will likely remain well below average across the
Northern Plains and Upper Midwest over the next several days, while
Excessive Heat Risk grows across the Central Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi
Valley. Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect across the Desert Southwest
and portions of California’s southern/central Valley. Monsoonal storms are
likely to continue across the Southwest and Four Corners region this week
with a Slight Risk of Excessive rainfall over far south-central Arizona on
Tuesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Aug 04 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Aug 04 2024 – 12Z Tue Aug 06 2024

…Tropical Storm Debby is expected to cause considerable Flash and Urban
Flooding, life-threatening storm surge, and strong winds across portions
of Florida and the Southeast Coast beginning today…

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible from the Upper
Midwest across the Great Lakes and into the interior Northeast on Monday
and Tuesday…

Tropical Storm Debby is currently forecast to strengthen while it tracks
along Florida’s Gulf Coast today. Debby may intensify into a Hurricane
Monday morning before making landfall near Florida’s Big Bend region,
where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Life threatening storm-surge
inundation is possible along portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast from Aripeka
to Indian Pass. Strong winds will likely cause significant damage to
unprotected infrastructure along the storm’s path. There’s a potential for
isolated tornadoes across western and northern portions of the Florida
Peninsula through Monday, which is consistent with the Storm Prediction
Center’s convective outlooks, which depict Slight Risks (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms for those days. There is a Moderate Risk (at least
40%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding across portions of
northwestern Florida today where the bulk of Debby’s precip shield will
cause impacts. Debbie is forecast to slow and cause considerable to
historic Flash, Urban and river Flooding across portions of northern
Florida through southeastern Georgia and into coastal South Carolina on
Monday and Tuesday. Flood Watches are in effect for parts of coastal
Georgia and South Carolina. For more information go to hurricanes.gov

Elsewhere, a low pressure system, emerging from the Northern High Plains,
will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Northern
Plains tonight before spreading storms into the Upper Midwest, Great Lakes
and interior Northeast on Monday. There’s a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall as well as a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe
Thunderstorms over portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes on Monday.
Downstream of this, the attendant stationary front draped across the
interior Northeast will be the focus for more severe storms from Lake Erie
to New England where another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is in
effect.

High temperatures will be below average across the northern tier states
this week in response to unsettled weather associated with the
aforementioned storms in the Northern Plains. Temperatures in the
Central/Southern Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley will be above
average as southerly flow persists out ahead of the descending cold front
to the north. Numerous warm overnight lows may tie or break existing
records in the Desert Southwest over the next couple of nights. Monsoonal
rain continues over portions of the Southwest and Four Corners region this
week with isolated Flash Flooding possible over vulnerable surfaces
including burn scars and slot canyons.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Aug 03 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Aug 03 2024 - 12Z Mon Aug 05 2024

...A dangerous heat wave shifts from the Paciifc Northwest to the Great
Plains...

...Stormy conditions and flash flood potential across portions of the
Eastern U.S. this weekend...

...Potential Tropical Cylone Four will bring hazardous rainfall, strong
winds and life threatening storm surge inundation to portions of Florida
this weekend...

Upper-level ridging over the West will promote above average temperatures
across the region this weekend. Upper troughing over the East Pacific will
work in combination with the Western ridge to produce high temperatures in
the upper 90s to low 100s across much of the Northwest into the
Northern/Central Plains today. Warm overnight lows in the upper 60s to low
70s will represent 20-30 degree anomalies for much of the Northern Great
Basin/Rockies/High Plains tonight. The lack of overnight relief from the
heat will affect anyone without effective cooling and/or adequate
hydration. A small bit of mid-level energy will contribute to a severe
thunderstorm threat over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest this
afternoon/evening. Damaging winds, isolated Flash Flooding and hail will
be the primary threats there. Shortwave energy spinning across the
northern periphery of a mid-level closed high pressure bubble will bring
some scattered showers, thunderstorms and cooler temperatures to the
northern tier of the country beginning on Sunday. Meanwhile, warm air
shifts into the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through early
next week.

Elsewhere, upper troughing over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley will promote
scattered thunderstorms up and down the East Coast today. Slight Risks of
Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms are in effect from the
Tri-State area down to the Florida Panhandle. Damaging wind gusts and
Flash Flooding will be the primary concerns from these storms. Some
lingering showers and thunderstorms are expected on Sunday with only an
isolated threat of severe storms and Flash Flooding across the coastal
Mid-Atlantic/Northeast.

Tropical Depression Four is forecast to strengthen into a Tropical Storm
as it tracks west of the Florida Peninsula this weekend. Heavy rainfall,
strong winds and life threatening storm surge inundation are all possible
along the western coast of the state beginning today. Heavy rainfall,
strong winds and storm surge are also possible over northern Florida and
the Southeast U.S. Coast Sunday evening into early next week. Tropical
Storm Warnings and Storm Surge Watches are in effect along Florida's Gulf
Coast while Tropical Storm Watches extend farther out across the other
Gulf Coast states. For more information go to hurricanes.gov.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.