Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 243 points or 0.61%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.38%,
• Gold $2,484 down $23.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.20,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.837 down 0.017 points,
• USD index $102.61 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $58,981 down $1,622 or 2.68%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

US Stocks Edge Higher: On Wednesday, US stocks mostly rose as Wall Street reacted positively to new consumer price data. Inflation Data: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) indicated that price increases remained steady in July, with consumer prices rising 2.9% year-over-year, marking the first time headline inflation has dipped below 3% since 2021. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, rose 3.2% year-over-year, aligning with Wall Street forecasts. Impact on Federal Reserve Policy: The inflation data strengthens the case for a possible interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale inflation, rose 2.2% year-over-year, close to the Fed’s 2% target. These signals suggest the Fed might be closer to a rate cut, with traders speculating on whether the cut will be 25 or 50 basis points.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) declined modestly from 3.0% year-over-year in June to 2.9% in July 2024. The index for all items less food and energy also modestly declined from 3.3% year-over-year in June to 3.2% in July 2024. Looking at the individual components, they were mixed and the bottom line is that together they added up to little change in the CPI. You need to step back to understand that in June 2023, the CPI stood at 3.1% and 13 months later the CPI stands at 2.9%. IMO, nothing short of a recession will force a drastic change in inflation. For the time being, it is endemic in the economy. 

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has released the 11th edition of its quadrennial report, “Small Business Problems and Priorities,” based on a nationwide survey of small business owners. This 2024 report highlights the challenges faced by small businesses, focusing on 75 critical issues impacting Main Street. Key findings from the report include:

• Cost Pressures: The “Cost of Health Insurance” continues to be the top issue for small business owners since 1986. The “Cost of Supplies/Inventories” has risen significantly in importance due to historic inflation, moving from 12th place in 2020 to 2nd in 2024. Additionally, the costs of fuels and electricity are significant concerns, with “Interest Rates” also rising dramatically in importance from 56th to 13th place since 2020.
• Tax-Related Issues: “Federal Taxes on Business Income” is the most severe tax-related problem, ranked 4th, with concerns about the potential expiration of the Small Business Deduction in 2025. “State Taxes on Business Income” is also a critical issue for many business owners.
• Uncertainty: Economic and governmental uncertainties have increased in importance. “Uncertainty over Economic Conditions” is now the 3rd most severe problem, while “Uncertainty over Government Actions” ranks 8th. Additionally, finding qualified employees remains a critical issue, ranking 5th.

The report underscores the need for policymakers to address these challenges to support small businesses, which employ nearly half of the private sector workforce.

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach which account for 40% of the high value container shipments in and out of the U.S. had a significant increase in July 2024. Imports are up 47% year-over-year whilst exports are up 10% year-over-year. This suggests the U.S. economy is strengthening and/or manufacturing is declining and being replaced by imports.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Brent Crude Falls Below $80
• Iron Ore Prices Plunge Below $100
• Jet Fuel Demand Recovery Grinds to a Halt
• Oil Prices Fall After the EIA Reports an Inventory Build
• U.S. Inflation Drops Below 3%, Boosting Hopes of an Interest Rate Cut
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for July 2024 — in one chart
• Mortgage refinancing surges 35% in one week, as interest rates hit lowest level in over a year
• S&P 500 closes higher for fifth straight day as easing inflation bolsters rate cut hopes: Live updates
• DraftKings reverses plans for a tax on customers as FanDuel parent Flutter wows Wall Street
• Crypto investors weigh new inflation data that clears way for potential rate cuts: CNBC Crypto World
• Mortgage Refi Activity Jump Most Since 2020 As Lenders See Gloom Ending
• Crypto Tumbles As ‘Harris/Biden’ Admin Moves Another 10,000 ‘Silk Road’ Bitcoin To Coinbase

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 409 points or 1.04%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.43%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.68%,
• Gold $2,506 up $1.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $1.59,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.850 down 0.059 points,
• USD index $102.60 down $0.54,
• Bitcoin $60,848 up $1,490 or 2.51%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

U.S. stocks closed with significant gains as Wall Street responded to cooler-than-expected inflation data and anticipated the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This marked the best three-day stretch for the Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100, and S&P 500, with each index achieving four consecutive wins. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for July rose just 0.1% month-over-month, lower than economists’ forecasts, and increased 2.2% year-over-year, aligning closely with the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target.In the corporate sector, Home Depot’s shares fell after the company lowered its outlook on same-store sales for the rest of the year. Conversely, Starbucks saw a 24% increase in its stock following the announcement of a new CEO, Brian Niccol from Chipotle, whose shares dropped more than 7%. Nvidia continued its upward trend, gaining about 7% after being named a top “rebound” stock by Bank of America.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 2.2 points in July to 93.7, the highest reading since February 2022. However, this is the 31^st consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 25% reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their business, up four points from June. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

Despite this increase in optimism, the road ahead remains tough for the nation’s small business owners. Cost pressures, especially labor costs, continue to plague small business operations, impacting their bottom line. Owners are heading towards unpredictable months ahead, not knowing how future economic conditions or government policies will impact them.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased 2.3% for the 12 months ended in July 2024 – down from 2.7% last month. The index for final demand services fell 0.2 percent. The index for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services moved up 3.3%. What a mixed bag of inflation indicators at the producer level! It is saying overall inflation subsided this month – but when you strip away food, energy and trade services (core inflation), it actually worsened this month. In fact, core inflation is nearly as high as any reading in the past 12 months. The good news in this data is that inflation in the services portion of this index declined (but the goods portion worsened). 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Future of U.S. Manufacturing: Key Trends and Challenges
• Billions in Taxpayer Dollars Tied Up in Stalled Green Power Projects
• Biden Administration Doubles Tariff-Free Solar Cell Import Quota
• U.S. Seeks Iran De-escalation With Turkey’s Help
• Refiners Are Reeling From Low Margins and Weak Demand
• Starbucks replaces CEO Laxman Narasimhan with Chipotle CEO Brian Niccol
• Wholesale inflation measure rose 0.1% in July, less than expected
• Stocks rise as first of the two major inflation reports this week comes in light: Live updates
• Investors are banking on the Fed to save stocks and the economy, according to Wall Street survey
• Rabobank: Questions Swirl What The Economic Program Of A Harris Administration Might Look Like
• PMS Tracker: HNI investors make up to 24%

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 141 points or 0.36%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.21%,
• S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
• Gold $2,511 up $37.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $2.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.904 down 0.038 points,
• USD index $103.13 down $UNCH,
• Bitcoin $59,046 up $323 or 0.55%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

US stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors prepared for a week filled with significant economic data. Key stock movements included Nvidia, which surged nearly 4%, driving a rally in the tech sector. This mixed performance comes after a volatile week that left markets feeling jittery, with major indexes ending the previous week close to where they started despite significant fluctuations. Looking ahead, investors are focused on crucial economic indicators. Wednesday, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be brought, providing insights into inflation, followed by retail sales figures and Walmart’s earnings on Thursday. These reports are expected to influence market volatility, as Wall Street tends to react positively to good news. The current economic climate suggests a slowing economy, shifting discussions from whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September to the extent of potential cuts. A slight majority of traders anticipate a 25 basis point cut, while around 48% expect a larger 50 basis point reduction.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The July 2024 Survey of Consumer Expectations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York revealed a mixed economic outlook with stable short- and long-term inflation expectations, a decline in medium-term expectations, and concerns about credit access and debt delinquency.

• Short-term (one-year) and long-term (five-year) inflation expectations remained stable at 3.0% and 2.8%, respectively.
• Expectations for home price growth remained steady at 3.0%.
• Expected earnings growth over the next year fell by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%.
• The probability of unemployment rising in the next year decreased slightly to 36.6%.
• The perceived likelihood of losing one’s job decreased to 14.3%, while the probability of voluntarily leaving a job rose to 20.7%.
• The probability of finding a new job after losing one decreased to 52.5%.
• Household income growth expectations remained at 3.0%, while spending growth expectations fell to 4.9%, the lowest since April 2021.
• The likelihood of missing a minimum debt payment in the next three months rose to 13.3%, the highest since April 2020, especially among lower-income and less-educated respondents.
• The probability of U.S. stock prices being higher in a year increased marginally to 39.3%.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EIA Reports Unexpected Rise in Oil Reserves for Public U.S. Companies
• Nickel Prices Plummet as Stainless Steel Demand Remains Weak
• How Mayonnaise Could Help Scientists Advance Nuclear Fusion Efforts
• The World’s 5 Most Largest Oilfields and Their Impact
• OPEC’s Oil Output Jumps by 185,000 Bpd as Iraq Continues to Overproduce
• War Risks and Lower Prices Keep Traders Away From Ukraine’s Gas Storage
• S&P 500, Nasdaq eke out small gains to hold last week’s momentum ahead of key inflation data: Live updates
• Apartments, hockey rinks and Amazon warehouses: Macy’s closures will set off a wave of change at shopping malls
• U.S. sends more forces and military hardware to the Middle East in anticipation of Iranian attack on Israel
• These Six Drivers Are Gone, And That’s Why The Global Economy Is Toast
• 10-, 30-year Treasury yields finish lower for second day as Israeli military goes on high alert

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 51 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.51%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.47%,
• Gold $2,468 up $4.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $0.89,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.940 down 0.057 points,
• USD index $103.13 down $0.080,
• Bitcoin $60,697 down $996 or 1.61%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 588 Canada -2 to 217

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

• Major Comeback on Wall Street: This recovery came after Monday’s significant losses, which marked the worst rout of the year. The CBOE Volatility Index, a measure of market fear, had soared to its highest levels since the pandemic earlier in the week.
• Market Volatility and Economic Indicators: The week was marked by tremendous volatility, with Monday’s sell-off driven by concerns over a potential recession and weak economic indicators. However, by Thursday, a positive report on weekly jobless claims helped to reassure investors, leading to a rally where the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both gained over 2%.
• Upcoming Economic Events: Looking ahead, significant economic data is expected, including the Consumer Price Index for July, which will be released on Wednesday. This data is crucial as it could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts, potentially as soon as September. Additionally, jobless claims and a consumer sentiment survey are expected later in the week, which will provide further insights into economic resilience and inflation expectations.
• Individual Stock Movements: Nvidia was a focal point for investors, experiencing volatility throughout the week. Its stock closed slightly down as investors awaited further catalysts in the AI sector. Nvidia’s earnings report is anticipated at the end of the month, making it the last of the “Magnificent Seven” companies to report.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The outlook for the U.S. economy is more mixed than three months ago, according to  the Philadelphia Fed’s Third Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters. The panelists predict GDP will grow at an annual rate of 1.9% this quarter, down from 2.0% in the previous survey.  The forecasters also see higher unemployment rates across all horizons compared with the previous survey.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Rig Count Rises As WTI Jumps To $77
• Taylor Swift’s Colossal Carbon Footprint
• Report: Biomass Plant Is The UK’s Top Carbon Polluter
• Brent Flirts With $80 as Recession Fears Ease
• Energy Investors Are Eyeing Utility Stocks
• Oil Prices Bounce Back From Eight-Month Lows
• Stocks close higher, clawing back much of the week’s losses in major recovery from Monday’s sell-off: Live updates
• Stellantis laying off 2,450 plant workers due to discontinuation of Ram ‘Classic’ pickup truck
• Wall Street will get key insight on the consumer, inflation in the week ahead as recession fears swirl
• Bitcoin bounces back above $60,000 as cryptocurrency’s rise continues to end week: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield dips as traders weigh state of U.S. economy after latest data
• 10-, 30-year Treasury yields finish lower to close volatile week in bond market

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 683 points or 1.76%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.87%,
• S&P 500 closed down 2.30%,
• Gold $2,462 up $30.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $0.88,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.994 up 0.026 points,
• USD index $103.21 up $0.020,
• Bitcoin $59,465 up $4,324 or 7.84%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

US stocks experienced a significant rally on Thursday, buoyed by a drop in weekly initial jobless claims, which eased concerns about the labor market’s health.

• Market Performance: The S&P 500 marking its largest single-day gain since November 2022.
• Jobless Claims Data: The U.S. Labor Department reported that initial jobless claims fell to 233,000 for the week ending August 3, down from 250,000 the previous week and below economists’ expectations of 240,000. This positive data provided a much-needed boost to investor sentiment after a recent disappointing jobs report that had raised recession fears.
• Individual Stock Movements: Eli Lilly saw a notable increase in its shares, soaring over 9% after it raised its annual revenue and profit forecasts due to strong sales of its weight-loss drug. Conversely, Nvidia faced volatility, with its stock fluctuating but ultimately ending the day down about 5% after earlier gains.

This rally comes after a turbulent week for Wall Street, where stocks had seen significant declines amidst fears of an economic slowdown. The jobless claims data appears to have provided a temporary reprieve from these concerns, although ongoing scrutiny of the labor market remains.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

June 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 2.4% from the revised June 2023 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.1% from the revised June 2023 level. The June inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.37. The June 2023 ratio was 1.40. The inventory to sales ratio is an indicator of a recession IF the ratio becomes larger – and today this ratio is near the levels associated with recessions. There is something skewed in the data so I do not trust the data in this series to risk making any predictions.

In the week ending August 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 240,750, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 238,000 to 238,250. Initial claims continues to modestly increase BUT remains below the levels one year ago. At this point, the data is not indicating a recession is looming.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Brent Crude Nears $80
• Force Majeure Declared at Libya’s Largest Oilfield
• Japan’s Top Oil and Gas Explorer Raises Shareholder Returns Despite Profit Drop
• Gazprom Exports to Europe via Ukraine Continue Despite Fighting
• Lower LNG Prices Drag Cheniere’s Q2 Profit Down by 36%
• S&P 500 notches its best day since 2022 as Wall Street claws its way back from Monday’s rout: Live updates
• Where to find high and safe yield when the Fed starts to trim rates
• JPMorgan raises 2024 recession odds to 35%
• Weekly jobless claims fall to 233,000, less than expected, in a positive sign for labor market
• XRP pops as court orders Ripple Labs to pay $125 million, legal battle with SEC nears end: CNBC Crypto World
• Buy The Dip… Or Embrace The Rotation?
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at almost 4% after drop in weekly jobless claims

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 234 points or 0.60%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.05%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.77%,
• Gold $2,429 down $3.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $2.21,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.955 up 0.068 points,
• USD index $103.20 up $0.230,
• Bitcoin $54,755 down $1,296 or 2.31%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

U.S. stocks declined on Wednesday, failing to extend Tuesday’s rebound that had snapped a three-day losing streak for major averages. Here are the key points:

1. Intra-day Volatility:
   All three major averages had been up more than 1% at some point during the session before reversing course.
2. Sector Performance:
   Chip stocks led the losses, with AI leader Nvidia (NVDA) falling more than 5%.
3. VIX Movement:
   The VIX, known as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” rose about 5 points to close just below 28 on Wednesday.
4. Notable Earnings: Disney (DIS) reported a profit in its streaming unit for the first time last quarter but saw its shares fall more than 4%. Airbnb (ABNB) stock fell almost 14% after offering a current quarter forecast below expectations. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock fell over 20% due to disappointing margins.
5. Market Outlook:
   Analysts suggest that the market may experience an extended period of “choppy waters” as it navigates through August, with a battle between fear and greed causing strong up and down days.
6. Economic Data:
   Investors are awaiting the weekly jobless claims report on Thursday, which is considered “very important” for gauging economic health and potential recession risks.

The market’s reversal on Wednesday highlights the ongoing uncertainty and volatility as investors continue to assess economic conditions and corporate performance.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What’s Behind the 4.38% Spike in Natural Gas Futures?
• Oil Prices Continue to Climb as Wall Street Braces for Showdown with Iran
• Lucid Receives $1.5 Billion Lifeline from Saudi Investment Fund
• War Enters New Phase as Ukraine Launches Offensive in Russian Territory
• Glencore Scraps Plan to Spin Off Its Coal Business
• Qatar to Invest in U.S.-Backed Critical Minerals Initiative
• Stocks close lower on Wednesday as market’s comeback attempt fizzles out: Live updates
• Jamie Dimon says he still sees a recession on the horizon
• NASA has about a week to decide on returning Boeing’s Starliner with crew or empty
• Weekly mortgage refinance demand soars 16% as rates sink to lowest level in over a year
• Combatting China’s Legacy Chip Threat: Time To Revive Section 421
• ‘Warren Buffett stayed calm and clear-headed amid chaos’: Here’s my biggest lesson from the Great Recession

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 294 points or 0.76%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.04%,
• Gold $2,429 down $15.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.15,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.866 up 0.104 points,
• USD index $102.93 up $0.240,
• Bitcoin $56,460 up $2,417 or 4.47%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

US stocks rebounded on Tuesday after a three-day decline that significantly impacted market gains for 2024. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite each rose approximately 1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by about 0.8%, translating to roughly 300 points. The previous day marked a severe downturn, with the S&P 500 experiencing its worst day since 2022, driven by concerns regarding the US economy and labor market. This decline resulted in a loss of around 6% over the past three sessions. However, the rally on Tuesday helped restore year-to-date gains to about 10%. Investor sentiment improved as the CBOE Volatility Index, which had surged to its highest levels since early COVID-19 days, decreased significantly. Major tech stocks also saw a recovery, with Nvidia rising over 3% and other notable companies like Tesla, Microsoft, and Meta all gaining more than 1%. Cryptocurrencies followed suit. The market’s recovery was also reflected in global indices, such as Japan’s Nikkei, which closed up over 10%. Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s potential actions remain a focal point for investors, with expectations growing for a 50-basis-point rate cut at the next meeting, as three-quarters of traders anticipate this move.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Imports into the U.S.  grew from 5.0% last month to 5.8% year-over-year in June 2024. Exports grew from 3.9% year-over-year to 5.2% year-over-year. The trade deficit declined from 13.5% last month to 12.8% in June. I was expecting an increase in the trade deficit but evidently civilian aircraft exports jumped and explains the entire monetary increase in exports.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.7% in June 2024 compared with June 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices grew by 0.3% in June 2024 compared with May 2024.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data released its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit for Q2 2024, revealing a $109 billion (0.6%) increase in total household debt, bringing it to $17.80 trillion. Key findings include:

• Mortgage Debt: Increased by $77 billion to $12.52 trillion.
• Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC): Rose by $4 billion to $380 billion, marking the ninth consecutive quarterly increase since Q1 2022.
• Credit Card Debt: Grew by $27 billion to a record $1.14 trillion.
• Auto Loan Debt: Increased by $10 billion to $1.63 trillion.
• Other Debts: Including retail cards and other consumer loans, saw a $1 billion increase to $544 billion.

The report also noted that mortgage originations remained low due to subdued refinancing activity, with homeowners increasingly turning to HELOCs to extract home equity. Mortgage originations were steady at $374 billion, consistent with the pace of the previous four quarters. Aggregate delinquency rates remained unchanged at 3.2%, although there were slight increases in delinquency transition rates for credit cards, auto loans, and mortgages.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Is Rolls-Royce Still a Buy After 600% Rise?
• U.S. Troops Wounded in Rocket Attack on Iraqi Airbase
• U.S. To Purchase More Oil for SPR While Prices Are Low
• High Power Demand Boosts Duke Energy’s Q2 Profit
• Goldman Sachs Sees a $75 Floor for Brent Oil Prices
• U.S. Administration to Allocate $2.2 Billion for Power Grid Upgrades
• Dow closes nearly 300 points higher to snap three-day losing run in broad relief rally: Live updates
• Markets are counting on the Fed to head off recession with sizeable interest rate cuts
• Elon Musk will interview Trump on Monday night, Republican presidential nominee says
• Now is the time to ‘buy things on sale’ in the stock market, advisor says. Here’s what to know
• US stock markets rise after days of turmoil
• Treasury yields jump by most in over a month as market anxiety eases
• As inflation bites, parents are borrowing more than ever to pay for college

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 1,034 points or 2.60%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.43%,
• S&P 500 closed down 3.00%,
• Gold $2,453 down $17.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $0.24,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.771 down 0.023 points,
• USD index $102.64 down $0.560,
• Bitcoin $53,467 down $4,471 or 8.03%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

Wall Street experienced a significant sell-off on Monday, driven by mounting concerns about the health of the U.S. economy. Key indices saw substantial losses:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average fell over 1,000 points.
• Nasdaq Composite dropped by more than 3.4%.
• S&P 500 declined nearly 3%, marking its worst start to any month since 2002.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” reached its highest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic before retreating. Treasury yields also fell, with the 10-year Treasury yield hovering near 3.8%. The sell-off was exacerbated by a disappointing U.S. jobs report, which heightened fears that the Federal Reserve may have delayed cutting interest rates for too long. Almost 100% of bets are on the central bank to cut rates by 0.5% by its September meeting. Major companies were significantly impacted:

• Apple (AAPL) declined about 5%.
• Nvidia (NVDA) fell over 6%.
• Tesla (TSLA) dropped more than 4%.

Cryptocurrencies also suffered. The sell-off had a global impact, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 experiencing its largest-ever daily loss of over 12% following a surprise interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan. This led to heavy selling as speculators liquidated their holdings due to the sharp rise in the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. The U.S. market is heading into a quieter week of data and earnings, with weekly unemployment claims due Thursday expected to draw significant attention

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In July 2024, the Services PMI^® registered 51.4%, 2.6 percentage points higher than June’s figure of 48.8%. For those who read my August 2024 economic forecast, you will KNOW that last month’s 48. 8% was a recessionary flag. July’s reading of 51.4% moves the economy into weak growth. The U.S. is basically a services economy so a negative or weak services datapoint should alert one to the higher possibility of a recession. The economic fundamentals have been weak this entire year – nothing changed this past week except that Wall Street woke up that the economy was weak. At this point, we are forecasting more of the same weakness. Could there be a recession? – possible but not ordained. I see nothing more than a weak economy but when an economy is weak it is not capable of absorbing a black swan event (say a military conflict in the middle east) – the economy is set up for a recession. Personally, I am not hunkering down but just more careful on spending and investing – I have been in this mode since 4Q2023.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Climate Change and Hard Labor: The Rising Toll on Outdoor Workers
• Understanding China’s Weakening Metal Demand
• Germany’s EV Sales Sink 37% as Subsidies End
• Nigeria Loses $1,000 per Barrel of Crude Oil It Exports
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Continue to Drop
• How Conflict in the Middle East Could Send Oil Prices Soaring
• Woodside Buys U.S. Clean Ammonia Project for $2.35 Billion
• Dow tumbles 1,000 points, S&P 500 posts worst day since 2022 in global market sell-off: Live updates
• $1 trillion wipeout: Market rout punishes megacap tech
• Warren Buffett’s decision to sell stocks and raise record cash before sell-off sends wake-up call
• Bitcoin plunges sharply as recession fears drive global market sell-off: CNBC Crypto World
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Robinhood, Nvidia, Intel and more
• Alphabet Shares Tumble After Losing DoJ Antitrust Suit Over Search
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at lowest level since July 2023 as recession fears linger

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 611 points or 1.51%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.43%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.84%,
• Gold $2,479 down $1.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.41,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.799 down 0.178 points,
• USD index $103.21 down $1.210,
• Bitcoin $62,550 down $2,747 or 4.21%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 586 Canada +8 to 219

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights:

The US stock market experienced a significant downturn today following the release of the July jobs report, which indicated further cooling in the labor market. This development has intensified concerns about a potential recession and raised questions about the Federal Reserve’s interest rate strategy. Key points from the market reaction:

Economic concerns:

• The weak jobs report has fueled fears of an economic slowdown
• Investors are worried that the Federal Reserve may have maintained high interest rates for too long

Interest rate expectations:

• Market forecasts now indicate a higher likelihood of a 0.5 percentage point rate cut in September
• Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling below 4%

Tech sector impact:

• Intel’s stock plummeted by 29% following disappointing guidance and layoff announcements
• Amazon’s shares fell by 12.5% after missing quarterly financial projections

Broader economic indicators:

• Factory orders declined by 3.3%, the largest drop since April 2020
• Manufacturing activity and construction spending were lower than expected

The market reaction reflects growing uncertainty about the economic outlook and concerns that the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy may be too restrictive, potentially risking a “hard landing” for the economy.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July 2024, and nonfarm payroll employment grew by 114,000 – the second-worst growth this year. Employment continued to trend up in health care, in construction, and in transportation and warehousing, while information lost jobs (see employment change bar chart in second graph below). The household survey (which produces the unemployment rate) shows employment growth of only 67,000 – versus the headline establishment survey’s 114,000 (see red bar on graph below). Further, the primary reason for the significant jump in the unemployment rate is because the household survey added 420,000 people to the workforce – not that a lot of people lost their jobs. Looking at the employment-population ratio which has been worsening since April 2024, it declined this month and remains below the levels seen from 2018 to 2020. Also from the establishment survey, Over the last year – the number of people unemployed has increased 380,000 or 21% year-over-year. To say the economy is stumbling at this point may turn out to be an understatement.

Contrary to the June 2024 Federal Reserve Industrial Production 1.1% year-over-year growth, the US Census manufacturing data shows new orders for manufactured goods in June 2024 declined 5.2% year-over-year. This data moves industrial production into a significant recession in June 2024, and early data has July 2024 manufacturing data also in a recession. Remember that imports are increasing which only suggests that despite the current policy to increase US manufacturing – manufacturing is leaving the country.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Oil and Gas Drilling Activity Slows Amidst Price Plunge
• Imperial Oil Q2 Earnings Surge by 68%
• Chevron Ditches California for Texas
• The Risk of a Regional War in the Middle East
• Dow closes down 600 points, Nasdaq enters correction after weak jobs report: Live updates
• Intel heads for worst day on Wall Street in 50 years, falls to lowest price in over a decade
• Mortgage rates plunge to the lowest level in over a year after weak employment report
• Berkshire’s mounting cash pile could top $200 billion as Buffett continues selling stock
• Car Repos Rise 23% YoY
• Financial Strain On American Households Hits Retailers Hard
• Recession fears fuel swings in interest-rate expectations and 2-year Treasury yield

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 495 points or 1.21%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.30%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.37%,
• Gold $2,487 up $14.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $0.94,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.981 down 0.123 points,
• USD index $104.39 down $0.300,
• Bitcoin $63,346 down $1,268 or 1.96%,

Today’s Highlights:

US stocks experienced significant selling pressure on Thursday, with all three major indexes falling sharply. Here’s a summary of the key points:

1. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the decline, falling 2.3%, while the S&P 500 dropped 1.4% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 494 points (1.2%).
2. Chip stocks were hit particularly hard, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling more than 7%. Arm Holdings plummeted 15% after disappointing results, dragging down other market leaders like Nvidia and AMD, which fell over 6% and 8% respectively.
3. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February, settling around 3.98%.
4. Weak economic data contributed to the sell-off. The US manufacturing sector contracted further in July, jobless claims rose to an 11-month high, and construction spending unexpectedly declined in June.
5. Despite the Federal Reserve signaling a likely rate cut in September, investors reacted negatively to the economic data, viewing it as “bad news” rather than a potential catalyst for steeper rate cuts.
6. Traders increased bets on more aggressive Fed moves, with the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September rising from 11% to 25%.
7. Meta was a notable exception, rising 4.4% after reporting better-than-expected quarterly results.
8. The July jobs report, due on Friday, is the next key data release that investors will be watching closely.

This sell-off highlights the market’s sensitivity to economic data and suggests that investors are becoming more concerned about economic growth rather than just focusing on potential rate cuts.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 25,885 job cuts in July 2024, a 47% decrease from the 48,786 cuts announced one month prior – but up 9% from the 23,697 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. perspective:

The job market is indeed cooling, with hiring at the lowest point in over a decade.  While we are seeing increased cuts in manufacturing sectors, both consumer and industrial, most industries are cutting below last year’s levels.

Construction spending during June 2024  is 6.2% above June 2023 estimate – but this is down from the 7.1% year-over-year in the previous month. Spending on private construction was up 5.9% year-over-year but down from the 6.5% growth in the previous month. Public construction was up 7.3% year-over-year but down from the 9.3% seen the previous month. Unfortunately, construction continues to slow even though it remains one of the bright spots in the U.S. economy.

The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.8% in July 2024,down 1.7 percentage points from the 48.5% recorded in June. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 47.4%, 1.9 percentage points lower than the 49.3 percent recorded in June. The July reading of the Production Index (45.9 percent) is 2.6 percentage points lower than June’s figure of 48.5 percent. Just one more nail in the manufacturing coffin indicating it has slid into a recession.

In the week ending July 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 238,000, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 235,500. Initial unemployment claims remain in territory associated with an expanding economy.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024 with unit labor costs increasing 0.5% year-over-year. Note that the trends are that both productivity and unit labor costs are moderating – however with productivity growth being significantly higher than labor cost growth, it helps the U.S. competitive position.

NFIB’s July jobs report found a seasonally adjusted net 33% of small business owners reported raising compensation in July, down five points from last month and the lowest reading since April 2021. A net 18% (seasonally adjusted) plan to raise compensation in the next three months, down four points from June. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Fewer small business owners are planning to raise compensation in the coming months, and plans to hire remain stable,. July marks the second month of net gains in employment on Main Street, and the number of firms with open positions remains exceptionally high.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Bullish and Bearish Signals Clash in a Tug-of-War Across Global Markets
• The 10 Most Exciting Technologies of 2024
• China’s Energy Revolution: Wind and Solar Surpass Coal in Historic Milestone
• Record Production Helps ConocoPhillips Beat Q2 Profit Estimate
• High Energy Costs Prompt German Firms to Consider Relocating
• Traders Bet on $130 Oil as Middle East Tensions Spike
• Dow closes nearly 500 points lower Thursday as investors’ recession fears awaken: Live updates
• Markets are clamoring for the Fed to start cutting soon: ‘What is it they’re looking for?’
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Shake Shack, C.H. Robinson, Mobileye Global and more
• Stocks & Bond Yields Puke Amid ‘Most Volatile Earnings Season’ Since GFC
• New Video Emerges Of Shooter Running Across Roof As Trump Is Speaking
• ‘Important moment’ as interest rates cut to 5%
• 10-year Treasury yield ends below 4% for first time since February after weak ISM manufacturing data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.