Posts by Gary Hall

Headlines:
U.S. Natural Gas Inventories Drop Below Five-Year Average Again.
The U.S. Is Falling Behind In Energy Tech Research.
Tesla climbs nearly 10% after Credit Suisse upgrade.
The new omicron sub-variant is more contagious, but vaccinated people are less likely to spread it.

Inflation at its worst: Some Attraction ticket prices are up as much as 100% as the COVID pandemic hard-hit. DOW closes up 406 points, NASDAQ up 3.4%. WTI settles at 88.30, USD at 96.58, Bitcoin at 38500.

Panic-bid rescues NASDAQ (barely) from worst January ever as rate-hike odds soar. This hike came as U.S. financial conditions tightened significantly (ex-March 2020, this is as big a tightening as in Q4 2018 just before Powell folded). Keep in mind just how much ‘easier’ financial conditions are still than the ‘easiest’ they have been for the last decade.

Netflix stock set for best day in a year as analysts say subscriber slowdown doesn’t tell the full story. Shares of Netflix Inc. are rocketing toward their best day in more than a year Monday after a pair of analysts say the stock’s selloff had gone too far.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Sixty million U.S. households have ordered free COVID tests, White House says.
S&P Suffers Worst Start To A Year Since 1939 As Yield Curve Yells ‘Recession.’
HP wins multi billion-dollar fraud case over Autonomy sale.
The two-year Treasury yield has the biggest weekly advance since 2019 as Fed raises the prospect of multiple hikes this year.
U.S. Rig Count Rises Along With Crude Prices

Oil Markets Bullish As Brent Breaks $90, WTI settles at 87.24. Oil markets are increasingly bullish as geopolitical risks spike and inventories continue to drain. Friday, January 28th, 2022, for the first time in seven years, Brent prices surged past $90 per barrel this week. In addition, the number of active drilling rigs in the United States rose by six this week, bringing the total rig count to 610, as oil prices continue to climb to attractive levels for drillers.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

JPMorgan: Not enough capitulation to call a bottom.
US economy has grown at the fastest pace in decades.
The two-year Treasury yield posts its biggest one-day gain

CEO Elon Musk talked up Tesla’s longer-term ambitions to develop a robotaxi and a humanoid robot that could work in factories.

Angry stocks come to terms with hawkish Fed as yield curve screams ‘policy error.’ DOW ends the session flat, down 7 points, NASDAQ down 1.4%, and the S&P 500 down 0.5%.

Algos lifted everything overnight, sellers appeared at the cash open, and it was a one-way trip to yesterday’s lows (or worse) for the rest of the day. Small Caps are down 5% from pre-Fed, Nasdaq is down over 3%, and The Dow is down around 1%.

In other news, Economic activity jumped by 5.7% in 2021, but analysts expect growth to slow this year. Treasury yield curve shrinks to narrowest levels in years as two-year rate has biggest daily gain since March 2020in almost two years on Thursday, a day after the Federal Reserve pointed to the possibility of a series of interest-rate hikes.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Global oil benchmark tops $90 for the first time since 2014, WTI settled at 86.55. Oil prices are at their highest level in more than seven years, adding to inflationary pressures seen across the economy. The DOW closed down 87 points, NASDAQ flat at +0.02%, S&P 500 closed down 0.2%.

While the situation along the Ukrainian border appears to be deescalating – aside from US/UK’s panic coalition, a top Russian official says that if the West follows through on a threat to cut the Kremlin off from the SWIFT payment system, Europe won’t receive Russian oil, gas, or metals.

This afternoon, Tesla shares fell 5% in extended trading after the automaker reported fourth-quarter results that came in stronger than expected. Earnings (adjusted): $2.52 per share, vs. $2.36 per share and revenue: $17.72 billion, vs. $16.57 billion expected by analysts, according to Refinitiv. Tesla closed at 937.41 USD +19.01, up 2.07%.

Thursday is likely to see a jittery start to the day; the levels of 17300 and 17430 may act as immediate resistance points. The supports come in at 17180 and 17000 levels. As a result, the trading range will stay a little wider than usual.

In other news, Liberal supreme court justice Breyer plans to retire before the midterms. 10-year Treasury yield rises above 1.85% after Fed signals a rate hike in March and more after that. The Fed missed the 7% surge in U.S. inflation, but Powell vows to get it back to 2%. Goldman says: It’s time to buy the dip.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

The continuing stock market crash shows a possible recovery trend but tread with ultimate caution. The market decline also temporarily halted the oil price rally, but oil prices rebounded this morning.

Many things are weighing on the market today including

• inflation concerns,
• The Conference Board’s January consumer confidence declined,
• the Russia / Ukraine tensions,
• the potential of federal funds rate increases,

Also released today, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices showed that November 2021 home prices were up 18.3% year-over-year for the 20-city composite – although it was down from 18.5% in October.

G.M. is spending $6.6 billion on E.V. plant investments in a bid to dethrone Tesla in electric car sales by 2025. It projects it will sell more than 1 million E.V.s globally by mid-decade and overtake Tesla as the top US-based seller of electric vehicles.

In other news, Microsoft tumbles despite beating across the board, topping $50 billion in quarterly sales. Looking at Microsoft’s earnings reported moments after the close, which beat from the top to the bottom line, one would think that the stock is soaring after hours – NOT!

Another day, another Musk tweet pumps Dogecoin up 9%. Musk, the founder of Tesla and SpaceX, said he would eat a Happy Meal on T.V. if Fast food giant McDonald’s started accepting Dogecoin.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

The financial markets continue in correction territory but edged up beginning midday as the markets now believe there will be no federal funds rate hike approved during the FOMC meeting scheduled this week.

Economic releases today:

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) fell to –0.15 in December from +0.44 in November. This is the most accurate coincident indicator which is now showing a slowing rate of economic growth BUT still the national economy is expanding above its historical trend (average) rate of growth.
• The December 2021 Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Household Spending Survey continues to show a rise in monthly household spending growth – now well above pre-pandemic levels.

The markets improved today with the DOW up 0.3%, NASDAQ up 0.6%, and the S&P up 0.3%. Bitcoin declined to $36,150. WTI crude declined to $85.14. Gold inched up to $1,838.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Wall Street open down but the BTFD investors moved the major indexes into the green, then bears chased them away and the equities slipped into the doldrums. The DOW ended down 450 points, NASDAQ down a whopping 2.7%, and the S&P 500 cratered down 1.9%.

A scary beginning of 2022 for clean energy stocks. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures are under pressure on the last day of the week, amid an unexpected rise in U.S. crude and fuel inventories.

In other news, it has been two years since COVID was first confirmed in U.S. Recent studies show the pandemic is worse than anyone imagined.

The market is sending The Fed some very clear signals as it prices in an aggressive rate-hiking trajectory this year (just as the economic data starts to gravely disappoint) warning that it is ‘panicking.’

Tensions over Ukraine aren’t rattling financial markets so far, but investors still appear likely to snap up traditional safe-haven assets should Russia invade, market watchers said.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Wall Street remained green until 11 AM with NASDAQ up 1.0%, then craters at the 3 PM mark. The DOW closed down 313 points, matching yesterday’s closing. NASDAQ closed down 1.3%, and the S&P 500 closed down 1.1%. NASDAQ gives up a 2% gain turns negative in the final hour of trading. Bitcoin a “bit” higher at 41800 and Dogecoin steady at $0.1647.

Other news, OPECs Oil Market Share In India Drops to 15-Year Low and Peloton to halt production of its Bikes treadmills as demand wanes. According to internal documents obtained by CNBC, Peloton is temporarily stopping the production of its connected fitness products. The firm’s shares fell more than 20% as investors worry that demand for its expensive exercise machines is waning.

Shares of autonomous driving tech company Luminar rise on the Mercedes-Benz deal, and investing legend Jeremy Grantham turns apocalyptic and expects stocks to crater 50% in the largest wealth destruction in U.S. history.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Wall Street opened higher then fluctuated between gains and losses until late afternoon. Then, stocks slid in a sea-saw fashion to close sharply down in choppy trading after quarterly earnings results rolled in. The DOW closed down 340 points, NASDAQ down 1.2%, and the S&P 500 down 1.0%. All below the 100 MDA.

Drops through moving averages are concerning because they may signal a change in momentum — but in this case, buying the next day has been an almost sure-fire winner for the past 19 months.

Tech-heavy NASDAQ falls 10% from November high before a slight move higher, and Bank Of America Predicts Tesla Market Share Will Collapse In Next Few Years, wherein the bank suggests that Tesla’s U.S. EV market share could drop to just 19% by 2024.

The S&P 500 closed below its 100-day average — having already slipped below that measure intraday Tuesday for the first time in more than three months.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Bonds, stocks, & bitcoin battered (42,000) as “rage-hike” fears grow. The Wall Street markets were smashed today in volatile trading that ended with the S&P 500 closing down 1.8%. Starting this holiday-shortened trading week saw rising bond yields, persisting rate pressures, and a big earnings miss by Goldman Sachs.

Today saw both bonds and stocks battered, creating the biggest daily aggregate loss (10Y TSY Px plus S&P 500) since March 2021. Oil prices are also trading at their highest level in seven years (86.19), but the move could be short-lived according to Exxon CEO Darren Woods is confident they will trend lower.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.