Posts by Gary Hall

Dow closed 0.7% down, S&P down 1.3%, NASDAQ down 2.2%, Bitcoin declined to 38,590, Gold declined to $1,984, and WTI crude up to $109.

None of this is good news for your investments or your pocketbook. Yesterday the Consumer Price Index showed inflation was up 7.9% year-over-year – and the cutoff date for the 7.9% figure was before the gasoline price spike resulting from the Russia-Ukraine War. The real inflation you are seeing is significantly higher than 7.9%.

The market is supposed to be forward looking – and it is signaling that there will be pain for business over the coming months,

And the current surge of pain has been caused by direct and indirect consequences of the Russia-Ukraine War. The U.S. continues to look for ways to further punish Russia, and President Biden is now concentrating on revoking Russia’s most favored nation trade status. The tea leaves are signaling things will be getting worse before we will begin to see improvement.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia’s Huge Oil Tanker Fleet Struggles To Find Buyer Destinations
• Oil Prices Ease As U.S. Rig Count Jumps
• 50 Minerals Critical To U.S. Security
• Your 2019 leased car is now worth an average $7,200 more than expected.
• U.S. clears way for truly driverless vehicles without steering wheels

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Headlines:

Gold Climbs Above $2,000 As Ceasefire Talks Crumble
The End Of The Global Economy As We Know It
Deutsche Bank Defends Decision Not To Exit Russia: It’s Not ‘Practical’ Right Now
Bonds, Stocks, & Crypto Crumble As Global Financial Conditions Tighten Drastically
Rising fuel and food costs push U.S. inflation to 7.9%

Wall Street started today’s session with the DOW gaping down, seeing a session low of almost 400 points on the negative side as U.S. inflation stays at a 40-year high. Mostly the result of a poor morning financial economy report. Higher Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Jobless Claims reported higher numbers, and Inflation sped up in February to the fastest pace since January 1982, hotter-than-expected at nearly 8%.

Yesterday’s rally was a ‘Dead Cat Bounce’ by all observations. I didn’t think it could go any further higher, but I’m not particularly eager to gamble as I know only too well the market can stay irrational longer than one can stay solvent. Also, there are just too many unknowns that can take place with additional unknowns out there. (Or something like that!)

U.S. inflation rate climbs again to 7.9%, and if anyone has gone food shopping lately, they know food inflation is more like 20%. Oil prices end lower (WTI settles at 105), with Russia-Ukraine war headlines feeding trade volatility. When Joe Biden took office, the crude oil price increased 513%, and Ruskie Putin started bullying Ukraine. Crude oil prices have added 25% since the Ukraine invasion.

LAUGH FOR THE DAY:
Russia will recover with a ‘full bill of health,’ says Lavrov, vowing to cut ties with the West.

Tune in tomorrow for additional doom scrolling and disillusionment antics springing from Wall Street.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Only OPEC Can Help The West Replace Russian Oil
Oil Prices Crash By 11% As UAE Calls On OPEC To Open The Taps
U.S. Oil & Gas Association President: Cut The Crap And Approve Our Permits
Here’s What Happens To Russian Oligarch Yachts After They’re Seized
Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold, Dumped As ‘Hope-Hammered-Hedges’ Squeeze Stocks Higher

Another day, another hedge unwind-driven, negative-delta inspired melt-up in stocks, triggered this time by optimistic headlines (that were just ‘meh’ of the same sentiment) on the Ukraine situation.

Stocks soared the most since April 2020 today (2 days after the 2nd biggest daily drop since Oct 2020). Nasdaq soared almost 4% today while The Dow ‘lagged’ with a mere gain of 2.5% before some last-minute selling pressure spoiled the big day (taking The Dow back below yesterday’s roller-coaster highs).

READ EARLIER:

Higher crude prices will have a direct impact on Americans. Less oil supply? Higher oil prices? Higher gas prices. And higher gas prices are certainly upon us: The average price per gallon in the U.S. hit a record of $4.17 yesterday (up 55 cents in a week), and it’s likely to surge even more before it gets better. Biden admitted that the decision “is not without costs here at home,” he said.

Europe’s inability to ban Russian oil and gas has been a come-to-Jesus moment that it needs to wean itself off its Russian energy addiction. Yesterday, the E.U. drew up a goal to completely stop buying Russian fossil fuels by 2030.

The U.S. rejected a surprise announcement by Poland to hand over its MiG-29 fighter jets for Ukraine to use, saying the plan could potentially spark a broader conflict with Russia.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Canceling Keystone XL May Have Been Biden’s Biggest Blunder
Nickel Trading Suspended As Prices Double In Short Squeeze
Crude Oil Jumps As Much As 7% On U.S. Ban Of Russian Imports, But Trades Off Session Highs
Expect To Pay $3,000 More This Year For Gas And Food As Prices Skyrocket

The U.S. stock market ends lower for a fourth straight session, with the DOW deepening slump in correction territory closing near the session bottom.

The U.S. ban on Russian oil is very important and reflects higher gas pump prices. Still, the U.S. only depends on Russia for only 3% of its crude imports – a European embargo, if it ever happens, would screw the pouch.

S&P 500 rebounded from the worst day yesterday as NASDAQ entered a bear market, the Dow entered a correction, and the S&P 500 suffered its worst single-day drop since October 2020. However, investors bet the worst of the sell-off was over after the U.S. banned Russian crude imports, with oil prices gaining nearly 4%, with gold settling above $2,000.

Wall Street lost steam in late afternoon trading after realizing the ‘Fat Lady’ hasn’t stopped singing and that the Russian ban wouldn’t be fully in effect until the end of the year. As a result, the graphs depicting today’s trading truly looked like a real roller-coaster heading straight down like the Russian Ruble ending the session for the fourth straight session.

“Unless something drastic happens, we are headed for average pump prices in the $4.50-$ 4.75-gallon range for motor fuel and beyond $5 gal for diesel,” said Tom Kloza, head of global energy analysis at Oil Price Information Services.

“Given Russia’s key role in global energy supply, the global economy could soon be faced with one of the largest energy supply shocks ever,” Goldman Sachs said Monday in a note to clients.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Traders Are Now Betting On $200 Oil By The End Of The Month
Gas Prices In Europe Skyrocket Again As Supply Risks Grow
World Is Facing A ‘Game Changer’ As Russia’s War Roils Energy Markets, Says Opec’s Barkindo
“The Market Is Totally Dysfunctional” – Traders Concerned Russian CDS Won’t Pay Out In Event Of Default
Carnage Everywhere As Market “Begins To Break”
What soaring crude prices mean for the U.S. stock market, amid talk of Russian oil sanctions

NASDAQ Composite entered a bear market, and the DOW slid over 800 points as the market sell-off continued on the uncertainty of the Russia-Ukraine war affecting the Global economy. WTI tops 200 for the first time in 13 years as Biden considers banning Russian oil. Gold rises higher, posting the highest finish (1996) since August 2020 as investors shun Bitcoin in favor of other precious metals.

Sanction fears send palladium prices soaring and topping a record $3,400 an ounce overnight on Russian embargo fears. The June palladium futures pulled back slightly early on Monday after further weighing the extent of potential supply chain disruptions. However, the most expensive precious metal has still gained some 70% since the beginning of the year.

The proposed ban on Russian products in the EU threatened already broken supply chains and heaped further inflationary pressure on economies worldwide. Even the Russian tankers at sea are fretting over the ‘big unknown’ over who will buy their floating oil reserves.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Oil Rallies As White House Considers Ban On Russian Oil Imports
Markets Brace For The Long Term Consequences Of Russia’s Invasion
Big February Job Growth For Economy, But On Main Street It’s Still A Struggle To Find Workers
‘Putin-Panic’ Goes Global: Stocks & Credit Crushed As Bonds & Commodities Soar
House Democrats Block Bill To Approve Keystone XL Pipeline For ‘American Energy Independence From Russia’

Wall Street Stocks fell at the opening bell and traded mostly sideways, sliding for the fourth straight week as traders track the Russia-Ukraine invasion. However, investors considered a much stronger-than-expected report on the job market and kept the stock market from declining further.

The DOW was down over 300 points earlier, on track for the 4th losing week as Ukraine war overshadows strong jobs report. For February, the Nonfarm Payrolls and the Private Nonfarm Payrolls were higher, indicating a strong job market ahead.

The U.S. economy is showing a red-hot U.S. jobs market as manufacturing payrolls for February were higher, and the unemployment rate for February unexpectedly fell to 2.8%. Treasury yields were lower and strengthened the dollar today, but the war in Ukraine has overshadowed the blowout of financial reporting this morning. However, the euro plunged on expectations of slower European economic growth.

Gold futures are up over 4% for the week, settling at the 1970 level; palladium and copper are at record highs. However, an analyst said that the Crypto market needs 2-3 months to stabilize before ‘a more sustainable recovery’, as bitcoin falls to $37700.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Big Oils Sudden Decision To Exit Russia Comes At A High Price
Russian Gas Via Yamal Pipeline Halts Flows To Germany
Oil Hits Almost Decade High Before Iran Throttles The Rally
Russian Users Are Using Crypto Loopholes To Skirt Sanctions

Stocks end a choppy session lower as investors monitor Russia-Ukraine developments. The DOW turned negative ahead of final hour trading, as investors are beginning to have second doubts of a continuing rally.

WTI crude shot up sharply to 116.51 and has retreated to the 108 level. There is a lot of misinformation regarding how much Russian oil the U.S. uses. We import roughly 245 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products each year, amounting to a one-year increase of 24% over 2020. Nearly 8% of U.S. Russian imports that year came from Russia, based on data from the statistical arm of the U.S. Energy Department.

The U.S. imports Russian oil, but it is not highly dependent on the country for its supplies. According to the AFPM, imports of Russian crude oil represent three percent of U.S. crude oil imports and one percent of the total crude oil processed by U.S. refineries. By contrast, the U.S. imported 61 percent of its crude oil from Canada, 10 percent from Mexico, and six percent from Saudi Arabia in the same year.

About half of Russia’s exported oil – roughly 2.5 million barrels per day – is shipped to European countries, including Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Finland, Lithuania, Greece, Romania, and Bulgaria.

The hype you hear about curbing Russian oil products in the U.S. is not all that important and more political than anything else.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Russian Oil & Gas Giants Lose 95% Of Their Market Cap On London Exchange
Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich Says He Will Sell Chelsea Soccer Club Amid Ukraine War
Ford Plans To Produce 2 Million EV’s Annually, Generate 10% Operating Profit By 2026
Ryanair CEO Says Greater Western Oil Production ‘Hits Russia Hardest.’
Crypto & Crude Extend Yesterday’s Gains As Bonds & Stocks See Massive Round Trip
Jerome Powell: Us Central Bank Boss Says He Plans To Raise Rates

Stocks recovered large losses from earlier this week, but not enough to overcome jitters over Russia’s war in Ukraine. The serious implications for the global economy weighing on risk assets continue to wreak havoc on investors.

While Bitcoin hasn’t proven to be “digital gold, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies prices rise modestly as Russia, and its currency, the ruble, rapidly loses value. Ukrainians fleeing the country are also contributing to the “Crypto Spike” as they hide their savings under the digital mattress that is the blockchain. It gets worse as the Ruskies get slammed with additional economic sanctions. As of last night, the price of Bitcoin had risen 18% in 48 hours, now 43835.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said a rate increase would be appropriate in March Is on Track to Raise Rates in Two Weeks. Also, it’s too soon to tell how the war in Ukraine will affect the U.S.

I wonder when Biden will begin supporting larger crude production efforts in the United States. Am I asking too much? But, hey, Mr. Pres., ‘Buying 650K barrels a day from Russia is kinda stupid, don’t you think.’

The USD is within 4% of June 2020 at 97.35, and today gold fell from a high of 1944 to 1928. CNBC ProBonds are extra volatile, but markets have been taking Ukraine’s invasion in stride for now

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Russia Struggles To Sell Its Oil After Ukraine Invasion
Ahead of State of the Union address, President Biden’s approval with Main Street is underwater
Stocks Slammed As Bonds, Bitcoin, Bullion, & Black Gold Soar
Ship Carrying 4,000 Luxury Cars Sinks Off The Azores (Is Your Bentley One Of Them?)

The DOW drops like a rock as the Ukraine-Russia invasion intensifies, WTI oil prices spikes 11% to $106 a barrel, a 7-year high. The U.S. buys 650K barrels a day from Russia, if you were unaware. Where are the sanctions on Russian Crude?

Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC) – said, “what good are sanctions when you’ve put us in a position where we’re forced to stuff their coffers buying 650,000 barrels a day at $100 each?…doh! It’s ridiculous. Totally ridiculous.”

USD moved higher, pausing at a resistance of 96.77 then slipping to 97.43. Gold high yesterday was 1942, but steady today in the 1940 range – silver down from 25.54 to 25.32.

Red volume yesterday was fractionally and higher than average. Today it is fractionally lower.
Bitcoin is down from a high of 44100 to 43900 – Bitcoin (BTC-USD) is up 14%. As the ruble plunges to less than a penny, dealings surge in Ukraine and Russian currency for bitcoin and stablecoins.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.

Headlines:

Safe Haven Assets Set To Shine As Ukraine Crisis Continues,
Crypto Jumps, Stocks Dump ‘n ‘Pump As Cracks Appear In Global Financial System ‘Plumbing,’
Wall Street’s Biggest Bear: We Are On Track For An Extremely Challenging March & April,
Shell To Sever Gazprom Links In Ukraine Crisis.
Bond Report: 2-Year Treasury Rate Marks The Largest Daily Drop-In Two Years As Putin Puts Nuclear Forces On Alert Amid Russian Sanctions.

Stock futures sank, cryptocurrencies held firm, Treasuries rallied, and oil spiked to begin what will be an interesting week of the trading week for investors. (If you are so inclined to gamble). The ongoing invasion in Ukraine has stoked increasing uncertainty over the outlook for global financial markets. Even Switzerland breaks its famous neutrality status to follow the E.U.’s sanctions over the Ruskies invasion of Ukraine.

The Ruble is rubble, global markets roll, and oil prices shoot skyward. A sitcom starring Comrade Putin and his Dedovshchina “Little Green Men.” They star in a reality sitcom about a mentally challenged creature trying to break out of self-imposed confinement.

The financial fallout resulting from the invasion of Ukraine is escalating rapidly. Increasingly more problematic with an intensification of violence and battles throughout the country. However, the U.S. stock markets seem to be waiting for the “other” shoe to drop. I won’t say trading is slowing, but the smart money seems to be waiting. I can’t blame anyone sitting on the sidelines now as the U.S. economy is in fair shape. In truth, I believe Ivan would have to launch a nuclear attack before the Global Market would rollover.

WTI crude hit a high of 100.45 then settled at a resistance of 95.68. This movement was attempted before but pushed back to the resistance line. Brent oil prices end above $100 a barrel on new escalating Russia sanctions. Rising crude prices are showing up at the gas pumps. The average gas price in the U.S. has jumped 10 cents, to $3.64/gallon, in the past two weeks.

The U.S. dollar high was at 0800 EST falling briefly to 96.78, finally settling at 97.00. Gold is considered a safe haven when trading in uncertain stock markets, and the precious metals reflect. Gold today rose to 1918, then fell to 1890, settling at 1909. Bitcoin started with a low of 41480, ranging higher to 41800, settling at 41700.

Today, red volume is considered below average, accounting for the relaxed sideways trading. The S&P 500 briefly saw green around 11 am only to sea-saw down at a leisurely pace. While off its session lows, the DOW barely halved its losses for the session.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today.