Posts by Gary Hall

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 137 points or -0.43%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
• S&P 500 down 0.93%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $95 down 1.6%,
• USD $106.57 down 0.32%,
• Gold $1723 up 0.6%,
• Bitcoin $22,725 down 1.8%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.5% unchanged,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 758 Canada +4 to 195

Today’s Economic Releases:

This morning’s reported financials were anything but reassuring. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL Fell To 52.3 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years. S&P Global Composite PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47.5 From 52.3 – the rate of decline was the sharpest since the initial stages of the pandemic in May 2020. S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Oil Rig Count Unchanged As WTI Slumps Below $100
• Verizon shares fall after company cuts full-year forecast
• Airlines were too ambitious chasing the travel rebound. Now they’re scaling back
• Convenience store chain 7-Eleven cuts 880 corporate jobs as part of restructuring
• Volkswagen CEO Forced Out After Clashes With Union Bosses
• “It All Adds Up To One Word: Pain”: Traders Forced To Chase Gamma Higher As Stocks Refuse To Drop Despite Dire News And Data
• Powell seen slowing Fed hikes after 75 basis points next week
• Top Ten: Weekend reads: Prepare for a big week — a crucial Federal Reserve decision, tech-company earnings and a GDP report

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 48 points or 0.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.58%,
• S&P 500 up 0.59%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 100 down 3.79%,
• USD $107.06 up 0.35%,
• Gold $1695 down 5.44%,
• Bitcoin $23,650 up 1.20% – Session Low 22,967,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.03% up 0.009%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 29% to 106 in June 2022 from 150 in May. It is 2% higher than the 104 CEO changes announced in the same month in 2021. According to Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.:

The skills CEOs implemented, as well as acquired, during the pandemic are extremely valuable and many of them are finding new opportunities both within the organization and at new companies. Meanwhile, a large swath of CEOs are choosing this challenging economic time to retire after serving the last few years during the pandemic.

Existing-home sales declined for the fifth straight month with a decline of 5.4% month-over month in June 2022. Home sales prices increased with an average year-over-year gain of 13.4%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gazprom Preparing To Restart Flows To Europe Thursday
• Too Hot For Solar Power: Europe’s Heat Wave Makes Solar Panels Less Efficient
• June home sales fall 5.4% from May, as prices set yet another record
• Bath & Body Works lowers outlook, citing consumer caution during high inflation
• Tesla Q2 Earnings Preview: Eyes Are On China, Volume Growth, Margin Expansion & Delivery Guidance
• The Tell: Stock-market bottom or bear market bounce? What traders want to see as S&P 500 extends gain
• Metals Stocks: Gold prices fall back to a more than 15-month low

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 754 points or 2.43%,
• Nasdaq closed up 3.13%,
• S&P 500 up 2.76%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $104 up 1.82%,
• USD $106.70 down 0.66%,
• Gold $1711 up 0.06%,
• Bitcoin $23,409 up 10.48% – Session Low 20,774,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.201% up 0.061%

Today’s Economic Releases:

June 2022 residential building permits slowed but were still up 1.4% year-over-year, housing starts were down 6.3% year-over-year, and construction completions were up 3.4% year-over-year. Looking at single-family housing only – building permits and housing starts declined year-over-year whilst construction completions increased.

According to CoreLogic, “Annual U.S. single-family rent growth remained at a record high in May 2022, posting a 13.9% increase from May 2021. This growth matched April’s increase, representing the first time that price growth did not accelerate from the previous month since January 2021. ”

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russian And Iran Ink $40 Billion Oil And Gas Agreement
• How Many Countries Are Actually Capable Of Space Travel?
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Fall Below $4.50 Per Gallon
• GM reveals electric Chevrolet Blazer priced starting at $45,000
• Delta buys 100 Boeing Max planes, its first major order with the manufacturer in more than a decade
• “Something Has Just Blown Up”: Small Explosion Seen At Hoover Dam
• Market Snapshot: Dow up 700 points as stocks head for largest gain in a month

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 216 points or 0.69%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.81%,
• S&P 500 down 0.84%,
• WTI crude oil at $102.27 up $4.78%,
• USD $107.44 down 0.58%,
• Gold $1705 down 0.12%,
• Bitcoin $21,527 up 3.6%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.967% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

In June 2022, employers added 884,000 jobs for teens aged 16 to 19, a 41% increase from the number of job gains for teens in June 2021, when 625,000 jobs were added.

According to the June 2022 New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) Credit Access Survey:

• The application rate for any type of credit over the past twelve months increased to 46 percent in June, up from 44 percent in February. The increase was driven by older (over 60) respondents and respondents with a credit score between 680 and 760. Overall, credit applications were approved at a slightly lower rate.

• The credit card application rate over the past twelve months increased to 28 percent, its highest rate since June 2019. The increase was driven by those with credit scores between 680 and 760. The rejection rate for credit card applications declined to 17 percent from 20 percent in February.

• The mortgage refinance application rate over the past twelve months dropped to 11 percent (among households with a mortgage), returning to its February 2020 level.

• Rejection rates for auto loan, home loan, and mortgage refinance applications all increased.

• The average probability of applying for a credit card or a credit card limit increase over the next twelve months rose slightly in June, while it declined for auto and home loans and mortgage refinances.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• $100+ Oil Is Back For The Long Haul
• Canada Sends Repaired Gazprom Turbine To Germany
• IEA Urges Europe To Take Immediate Measures To Conserve Gas
• Homebuilder sentiment plunges in July as buyers pull back
• Delta buys 100 Boeing Max planes, its first major order with the manufacturer in more than a decade
• Beijing Panics, Scrambles To Halt Mortgage Boycott By “Urging” Banks To Rush Developer Loans
• Apple Plunge Drags Down Market After Reports Of Hiring & Spending Slowdown

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 658 points or 2.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.79%,
• S&P 500 up 1.92%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 98 up 1.06%,
• USD $108.03 down 0.56%,
• Gold $1705 down 0.03%,
• Bitcoin $21,075 up 2.07% – Session Low 20,385,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.926% down 0.033%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 756 Canada +16 to 191

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 143 points or 0.46%,
• Nasdaq closed flat +0.03%,
• S&P 500 down 0.30%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 96 flat 0.00%,
• USD $108.58 up 0.51%,
• Gold $1710 down 0.05%,
• Bitcoin $20,656 down 5.04% – Session Low 20,634,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.947% up 0.041%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Unemployment insurance weekly claims 4 week moving average continues to moderately grow.

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 11.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest increase since a record 11.6-percent jump in March 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Are Energy Markets Responsible For Currency Craziness?
• People are paying more for clothes even as retailers like Walmart and Gap mark down prices to cut inventory
• Molson Coors to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in more than 30 years
• Dimon rips Fed stress test as ‘terrible way to run’ financial system after his bank halts buybacks
• Banks Dump, Bitcoin Pumps, Bullion Slumps As Inflation-Recession Battle Builds
• Doug Casey On The Ridiculous Policies For Addressing Inflation And Rising Prices

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 209 points or 0.67%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.15%,
• S&P 500 down 0.45%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $96 down 7.61%,
• USD $107.96 down 0.18%,
• Gold $1733 up 0.06%,
• Bitcoin $19,626 down 3.29% – Session Low 19,058,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.91% down 0.048%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2022 rose significantly and was the largest monthly rise since September 2005.

Overall, consumer prices grew at 9.1% over the last 12 months – the highest level since 1981.

You can blame much of the rise of the CPI on energy. You can assume the following:

1. The June Employment picture saw significant growth. Since the Federal Reserve is charged with maintaining jobs growth and controlling inflation – they are free to raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points at their next meeting later this month;
2. There has been a moderation in energy prices recently. It is likely that this 9.1% inflation rate will be the largest this year (all things being equal).
3. Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased by 1.0% in June – inflation was responsible for this decrease.

The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book for July 2022, and states in part:

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace, on balance, since mid-May; however, several Districts reported growing signs of a slowdown in demand, and contacts in five Districts noted concerns over an increased risk of a recession. Most Districts reported that consumer spending moderated as higher food and gas prices diminished households’ discretionary income.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Biden: Inflation Data Does Not Reflect Impact Of Gasoline Price Decline
• ESG Funds Reel As Investors Pile Into Energy And Defense Stocks
• Peloton competitor Tonal cuts 35% of the workforce as it prepares for possible recession, IPO
• PepsiCo raises revenue forecast as it deploys price hikes, smaller sizes to fight rising costs
• California Governor Signs Bill Allowing Victims to Sue Gun-Makers
• ‘Scary times’: Builders are slashing home prices and slowing construction as buyers pull back, survey shows

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 192 points or 0.62%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.95%,
• S&P 500 down 0.92%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $95.80 down 8.0%,
• USD $108.17 up 0.15%,
• Gold $1723 down 0.46%,
• Bitcoin $19,463 down 2.4%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.967% flat 0.0%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 164 points or 0.52%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.26%,
• S&P 500 down 1.15%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 104 down 1.05%,
• USD $108.14 up 1.07%,
• Gold $1731 flat 0.00%,
• Bitcoin $20469 down 1.69% – Session Low 20293,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.998% down 0.103%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The June 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations which showed an increase in short-term inflation expectations but a decline in medium-term and longer-term inflation expectations. Home price growth expectations declined sharply.

Thinking of the June 2022 BLS Employment report which came in red hot last Friday – there was a big bust between the two surveys that comprise the report. The household survey showed a 353,000 DECLINE in jobs whilst the establishment survey showed a 381,000 GAIN in jobs. This is not the first month this year this “bust” has occurred. It could be that an underlying dynamic change is invalidating the accuracy of the data gathering methodology of one or both of the surveys. The graph below shows the net change monthly for the last 5 months in the household and the establishment surveys.

The federal budget deficit was $514 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2022.