Posts by Gary Hall

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 338 points or 1.07%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.31%,
• S&P 500 down 1.07%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 87 down 6.49% for the week,
• USD $109.60 down 0.03%,
• Gold $17251 up 0.68%,
• Bitcoin $19,899 down 0.38% – Session Low 19,784,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.199% down 0.066%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -5 to 760 Canada +7 to 208

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 315,000 in August 2022, and the unemployment rate rose to 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, health care, and retail trade. Interesting that the civilian labor force increased by 786,000 which accounts for the rise in the unemployment rate. The household data shows employment increasing by 442,000 (versus the headline 315,000 in the establishment survey). Wednesday’s ADP employment report showed 132,000 private sector jobs were added (versus 308,000 in the establishment survey in this employment report). The strong employment report opens the Federal Reserve to continue raising the federal funds rate.

New orders for manufactured goods in July 2022, down following nine consecutive monthly increases, decreased 1.0%. This followed a 1.8% June increase. This data is not inflation adjusted and inflation-adjusted data makes manufacturing look sick (see graph below):

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) showed its manufacturing index for August 2022 was unchanged from the previous month. Overall this index has been declining for the last year and is only modestly above the zero-growth line.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 146 points or 0.46%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.26%,
• S&P 500 up 0.30%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $86 down 9.44% for the week,
• USD $109.62 up 0.86%,
• Gold $1707 down 1.14%,
• Bitcoin $19,857 up 1.01% – Session Low 19,614,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.257 up 0.127%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Small business owners continue to hire, but 49% (seasonally adjusted) of owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period. According to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

The labor market continues to be a significant challenge for small business owners. Owners are managing several economic headwinds and continue to make business adjustments to mitigate lost sales opportunities due to staffing shortages. Almost half of owners are raising compensation to attract workers for their open positions.

U.S.-based employers announced 20,485 cuts in August, a 21% decrease from the 25,810 cuts announced one month prior. It is 30% higher than the 15,723 cuts announced in the same month last year. August marks the fourth time this year that cuts were higher in 2022 than in the corresponding month a year earlier. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

Employment data continue to point to a strong labor market. Job openings are high, layoffs are low, and workers seem to have slowed their resignations. If a recession is imminent, it’s not yet reflected in the labor data.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 4.1% in the second quarter of 2022 as output decreased 1.4 percent and hours worked increased 2.7 percent. From the same quarter a year ago, nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 2.4%. This is the largest decline in the series, which begins in the first quarter of 1948.

In the week ending August 27, the 4-week moving average for initial unemployment claims was 241,500, a decrease of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The unemployment claims recent rise seems to have abated.

Construction spending during July 2022 was 0.4 % below the revised June estimate. The July figure is 8.5% above  July 2021. During the first seven months of this year, construction spending was 10.8% above the same period in 2021.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 280 points or 0.88%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.56%,
• S&P 500 down 0.78%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 89 down 4.91% for the week,
• USD $108.67 down 0.14%,
• Gold $1722 down 0.84%,
• Bitcoin $20,166 up 1.01% – Session Low 19,780,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.146 up 0.003%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Our data suggests a recent shift toward a more conservative pace of hiring, possibly as companies try to decipher the economy’s conflicting signals. We could be at an inflection point, from super-charged job gains to something more normal.

The Chicago Business Barometer inched up in August 2022 by 0.1 points to 52.2 – following the June/July slide which saw this index fall to the lowest level since August 2020. This continues to indicate a modestly expanding economy.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 308 points or 0.96%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.12%,
• S&P 500 down 1.10%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 down 4.98%,
• USD $108.78 down 0.05%,
• Gold $1735 down 0.82%,
• Bitcoin $19,995 down 1.64% – Session Low 19,591,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.112 unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

In June, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index posted an 18% increase, down from a 19.9% gain in May, marking the third month of slower home price growth and decided reversal toward long-run rate of about 5%. Housing market activity cooled markedly since the June’s surge in mortgage rates leading to widespread slowing of home price growth and rising concerns over potential home price declines in the future. 

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 184 points or 0.57%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.02%,
• S&P 500 down 0.67%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $97 up 4.13% for the week,
• USD $108.77 down 0.03%,
• Gold $1749 unchanged,
• Bitcoin $20,144 up 2.9% – Session Low 20,082,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.11% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 1,008 points or 3.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.94%,
• S&P 500 down 3.37%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $93 up 2.73% for the week,
• USD $108.81 up 0.36%,
• Gold $1750 down 1.2%,
• Bitcoin $20,670 down 4.37% – Session Low 20,581,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.039 Unchanged
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 765 Canada unchanged at 201

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real (inflation-adjusted) disposable personal income increased 0.3% in July 2022 and real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. We are not a fan of looking at month-over-month changes are the volatility is misleading. The year-over-year inflation-adjusted data shows personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2% (and this increase has been relatively steady for the last 5 months) whilst disposable personal income declined 3.7% (and has been in negative territory all of 2022).

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 323 points or 0.98%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.67%,
• S&P 500 up 1.41%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 93 up 6.80% for the week,
• USD $108.34 down 0.34%,
• Gold $1769 up 0.39%,
• Bitcoin $21,639 down 0.61% – Session Low 21,352,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.039% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 60 points or 0.18%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.41%,
• S&P 500 up 0.29%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $95 up 9.39% for the week,
• USD $108.65 up 0.13%,
• Gold $1765 up 0.24%,
• Bitcoin $21,695 up 0.72% – Session Low 21,172,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.111% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 154 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.00% (flat),
• S&P 500 down 0.22%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 94 up 6.60% for the week,
• USD $108.61 down 0.32%,
• Gold $1760 up 0.7%,
• Bitcoin $21,569 up 0.71% – Session Low 20,920,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.05% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing firms reported slowdowns in August 2022 with their composite manufacturing index falling from 0 in July to −8 in August. Two of its three component indexes tumbled: the indexes for shipments and volume of new orders slid from 7 and −10 in July to −8 and −20 in August, respectively.

Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2022 were 12.6%  below the revised June rate and is 29.6% below the July 2021 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2022 was $439,400.  The average sales price was $546,800.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 641 points or 1.90%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.55%,
• S&P 500 down 2.13%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 91 down 0.11%,
• USD $108.94 up 0.77%,
• Gold $1748 down 0.82%,
• Bitcoin $21,032 down 2.17% – Session Low 20,938,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.029 up 0.73

Today’s Economic Releases:

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.27 in July 2022 from –0.25 in June. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and all four categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.09 in July. Economic forecasting uses the three month average – and this would mean that the economy is expanding slightly below its historical trend (average) rate of growth. The CFNAI is the best coincident indicator of the economy – and it makes sense that this indicator views the economy as slightly soft.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2022 SCE Labor Market Survey, which shows a decline in transitions to a different employer, compared to a year ago. Satisfaction with wage compensation at respondents’ current jobs deteriorated, while satisfaction with nonwage benefits and promotion opportunities improved. Regarding expectations, the average expected likelihood of receiving an offer in the next four months declined. The average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one), as well as the average reservation wage — the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job — increased year-over-year. Expectations regarding job transitions improved.

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