Posts by Gary Hall

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 235 points or 0.58%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.00%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.75%,
• Gold $2,586 up $43.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $1.92,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.687 up 0.034 points,
• USD index $101.28 down $0.40,
• Bitcoin $57,730 up $126 or 0.22%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

[Publisher note: This section highlights what the markets’ believe – and much of it is opinion and may be contradicted by our review of market releases.] U.S. stocks rose on Thursday as investors processed new inflation and labor data ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision. The August Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Thursday indicated easing inflationary pressures. Additionally, initial jobless claims climbed more than anticipated, reaching 230,000 last week, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week. These reports led traders to increase their odds of a 25 basis point rate cut to 87%, up from 50% just days earlier. The market’s reaction suggests that investors are now leaning towards expectations of a smaller, quarter-point interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve next week, rather than a larger half-point reduction. This shift in sentiment follows the release of consumer price data on Wednesday, which showed gradual cooling of inflation. In the corporate sector, Moderna’s shares fell by 12% after the company lowered its annual revenue outlook for 2025 and announced plans to reduce its research and development budget. Meanwhile, tech stocks led the market gains, with companies like Nvidia and Meta each rising by approximately 2%.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In the week ending September 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 230,750, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.

According to CoreLogic, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.3% in July 2024. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 2.2% on a year-over-year basis from July 2024 to July 2025.

CoreLogic’s Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the second quarter of 2024 shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) saw home equity increase by 8.0% year over year.

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased  1.7% for the 12 months ended in August 2024 (down from 2.1% for the previous month). What is going on is that the prices for oil have decreased significantly year-over-year which is evident when one removes food, energy, and trade – which shows the year-over-year inflation rate has remained steady around 3.3% year-over-year. The Federal Reserve generally removes food and energy when they look at inflation pressures – and the current situation shows inflation pressures are not subsiding but remaining steady.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• How Falling Oil Prices Could Save The Economy
• Nippon Steel’s Investment Could Revitalize U.S. Steel Industry
• Why Goldman Sachs is Still Bearish on Lithium
• Florida LNG Export Project Delayed Five Years Due to Supply Chain Issues
• Europe’s LNG Ambitions Face Reality Check
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Set to Drop Below $3 Before Election Day
• Here’s the deflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
• Dow closes 200 points higher, S&P 500 posts four-day win streak as tech giants rally: Live updates
• Interest payments on the national debt top $1 trillion as deficit swells
• New high yield funds are hitting the market as Fed prepares to cut interest rates
• Trump rejects second Harris debate
• “We’re Just Giving Them Away”: EV Leases Have Plunged To As Low As $20 Per Month
• National debt forecast to treble over next 50 years
• Sell signs are all over the stock market now — but the bulls are holding out
• 30-year Treasury yield finishes just below 4% after soft bond auction

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 125 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.17%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.07%,
• Gold $2,541 up $2.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $67 up $1.40,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.661 up 0.017 points,
• USD index $101.72 up $0.09,
• Bitcoin $57,647 up $70 or 0.12%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The U.S. stock market closed higher on Wednesday after initially falling, as investors processed the August inflation report and the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. Nvidia led the tech rally, with shares surging over 8% Inflation. Inflation fell to a more than three-year low. Core inflation (excluding food and gas) rose 0.3% month-over-month, higher than the expected 0.2% The higher core inflation reading reduced expectations for a larger Fed rate cut. Odds of a 50 basis point rate cut at the next Fed meeting dropped to 15%, down from 44% a week ago. Markets now favor a smaller 25 basis point cut. Investors analyzed the Trump-Harris presidential debate, which provided limited detail on market-moving economic issues. GameStop shares fell almost 12% after missing quarterly revenue expectations. Oil prices rebounded from three-year lows, with WTI and Brent crude both rising about 2%.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.5% for the 12 months ending August 2024 (down from last month’s 2.9%), the smallest 12-month increase since February 2021. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.2% year-over-year (unchanged from last month). The energy index decreased 4.0 percent for the 12 months ending August. The food index increased 2.1% over the last year. The primary reason for the decline of the CPI-U was energy which declined 10.1% year-over-year. Over the years I have done several detailed analysis of the CPI and my conclusion is that inflation is different for each of us depending on how money is spent. The CPI shows food is up only 0.9% year-over-year – I am seeing food up 5%+ (see the table below for the 12 month change in the components of the CPI).

	Un-adjusted 12-mos. ended Aug. 2024
All items	2.5
Food	2.1
Food at home	0.9
Food away from home(1)	4.0
Energy	-4.0
Energy commodities	-10.1
Gasoline (all types)	-10.3
Fuel oil	-12.1
Energy services	3.1
Electricity	3.9
Utility (piped) gas service	-0.1
All items less food and energy	3.2
Commodities less food and energy commodities	-1.9
New vehicles	-1.2
Used cars and trucks	-10.4
Apparel	0.3
Medical care commodities(1)	2.0
Services less energy services	4.9
Shelter	5.2
Transportation services	7.9
Medical care services	3.2

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Markets Are Ignoring Imminent Production Cuts By 3 OPEC+ Members
• China’s Carbon Trading Market to Encompass Steel and Aluminum Sectors
• Oil Prices Jump 3% as Hurricane Takes 675,000 bpd Offline in the Gulf of Mexico
• Goldman Sachs: RBOB Gasoline Sees Open Interest Surge As Storm Looms
• U.S. Inflation Cooled in August Thanks to Lower Energy Prices
• Study Claims Banks ‘Greenlaunder’ Trillions of Dollars of Fossil Fuels Funding
• S&P 500 rises, Nasdaq closes 2% higher in rebound from inflation report rout: Live updates
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for August 2024 — in one chart
• Bitcoin could soon hit six figures regardless of who wins U.S. election, investors say
• Hurricane Francine takes aim at the Louisiana coast amid fears of storm surge and flooding
• Uranium Stocks Ignite After Putin Asks Gov’t To Weigh Export Restrictions On Critical Commodities
• Treasury yields bounce off 2024 lows after August CPI inflation report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 93 points or 0.23%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.84%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.45%,
• Gold $2,545 up $12.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $66 down $2.52,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.646 down 0.053 points,
• USD index $101.62 up $0.07,
• Bitcoin $57,839 up $834 or 0.46%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stock markets experienced a mixed performance in a volatile trading session on Tuesday as investors anticipated a crucial consumer inflation report on Wednesday. This report is seen as key to determining the timing and size of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

JPMorgan Chase shares dropped about 5% after warning that forecasts for net interest income were too high, weighing on the Dow. Brent crude dropped below $70 per barrel, reaching its lowest level since December 2021. The decline followed OPEC’s lowered demand growth forecast for 2024 and 2025. Apple shares edged lower after losing an EU court battle over a $14 billion tax bill. Oracle stock jumped more than 10% following strong earnings, driven by cloud services demand.

Markets are also anticipating the first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on tonight. The market’s volatility reflects investors’ uncertainty, balancing hopes for significant rate cuts against concerns about potential recession risks.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell by 2.5 points in August 2025 to 91.2, erasing all of July’s gain. This is the 32^nd consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The Uncertainty Index rose to 92, its highest level since October 2020. Inflation remains the top issue among small business owners, with 24% of owners reporting it as their top small business operating issue, down one point from July. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

The mood on Main Street worsened in August, despite last month’s gains. Historically high inflation remains the top issue for owners as sales expectations plummet and cost pressures increase. Uncertainty among small business owners continues to rise as expectations for future business conditions worsen.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• WTI Oil Price Hits 3-Year Low Ahead of Trump-Harris Showdown
• Falling Chinese Steel Prices Send Ripples Through Global Markets
• Oil Prices Drop 4.5% On Record-Bearish Sentiment from Money Managers
• European Natural Gas Prices Drop as Wind Power Soars
• Futures Prices Point to Spike in U.S. Natural Gas Prices in 2025
• Two key inflation reports this week will help decide the size of the Fed’s interest rate cut
• JPMorgan Chase shares drop 5% after bank tempers guidance on interest income and expenses
• Crypto will be ‘big boon’ for financial services over time, Robinhood CEO says: CNBC Crypto World
• Jamie Dimon says ‘the worst outcome is stagflation,’ a scenario he’s not taking off the table
• Volkswagen Declares War On Unions, Scraps Three-Decade-Old Job Protections
• Americans Lost $5.6 Billion In Cryptocurrency Scams Last Year, FBI Says
• Biden’s FAA Punishes SpaceX, Delays Starship Rocket Launch By Months
• Falling oil prices and China concerns add fuel to market fears of a U.S. recession
• Treasury yields establish fresh 2024 lows amid persistent recession worries

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 484 points or 1.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.16%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.16%,
• Gold $2,534 up $9.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 up $0.88,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.706 down 0.004 points,
• USD index $101.61 up $0.43,
• Bitcoin $56,930 up $2,084 or 3.80%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks rebounded strongly on Monday following the S&P 500’s worst week since early 2023, as investors refocused on inflation data that could influence upcoming interest rate decisions. Leading sectors included Financials, Industrials, and Energy. Among large-cap stocks, Nvidia, Tesla, and Amazon were notable gainers. The market is weighing the possibility of a 25 or 50 basis point cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, with recent comments from officials seeming to favor a smaller 0.25% reduction. Tech sector developments: Apple’s annual product launch event, featuring the new iPhone 16 series and updates to other devices, garnered attention. Investors will be closely watching the consumer inflation report on Wednesday and the producer inflation report on Thursday. These will be the final inflation indicators before the Fed’s policy decision on September 18.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

July 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 2.9% from the revised July 2023 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.4% from the revised July 2023 level. The July inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, based on seasonally adjusted data, was 1.35. The July 2023 ratio was 1.38. Those that follow my narrative know there is a methodology issue with the data gathering in this sector – the boundaries of this sector are fuzzy and confused by horizontal integrations vs. vertical splits vs. outsourcing of services previously performed in house vs. integration of formerly outsourced .  The number of employees as increased 0.9% year-over-year in an industry that has a relatively high level of robotics. My bottom line is that this sector is not indicating a recession but there are issues preventing an accurate quantification of growth.

According to the Federal Reserve, “in July 2024, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.0 percent. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 9.4 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.8 percent.” Consumer Credit only grew 1.9% year-over-year (the methodology used by the Fed to express annual growth as an extrapolation of the change in the rate of month-over-month growth) – and if one subtracts the rate of inflation, consumer credit growth is negative this month (red line on the graph below). Non-revolving credit (say student or car loans) only grew at 0.3% year-over-year but revolving credit (say credit cards) grew at 6.7% year-over-year. Note that in January 2023, revolving credit growth peaked at 15.5% year-over-year and has been declining ever since.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia Is Losing Its Grip on Central Asia
• Iran’s Missile Diplomacy Raises Stakes in Russia-Ukraine Conflict
• Oil Giants Evacuate Gulf of Mexico Platforms Ahead of Developing Hurricane
• Libyan Oil Shutdown Pushes Up U.S. Grades
• Oil Trading Giant Trafigura Sees Brent Falling Below $70 Soon
• Iraq Rejects U.S. Accusations of Enabling Iran Oil Smuggling
• Here’s everything Apple just announced: iPhone 16, iPhone 16 Pro, Apple Watch Series 10, AirPods 4 and more
• Dow closes nearly 500 points higher in rebound from Wall Street’s worst week of 2024: Live updates
• Palantir soars 13% on software vendor’s inclusion in S&P 500
• Big Lots files for bankruptcy protection, sells to private equity firm as it promises to keep offering ‘extreme bargains’
• MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor predicts bitcoin could hit $13 million by 2045: CNBC Crypto World
• Austin Tells Zelensky: Long-Range Strikes in Russia Won’t Be A Game Changer
• Why low gasoline prices shouldn’t be a ‘bragging point’ in presidential elections
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at another 2023 low as August CPI looms

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 410 points or 1.01%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.55%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.73%,
• Gold $2,525 down $17.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $0.97,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.723 down 0.010 points,
• USD index $101.19 up $0.08,
• Bitcoin $53,725 down $2,451 or 4.36%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 582 Canada unchanged to 220

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The major U.S. stock indexes erased earlier gains and declined sharply in afternoon trading. The August jobs report showed 142,000 jobs added, below expectations of 165,000. The markets believed that there were signs of continued cooling in the labor market. The weaker-than-expected jobs data shifted expectations for the Fed’s upcoming meeting with the markets believing there was Increased chances of a larger 50 basis point rate cut. Fed Governor Waller reiterated that “the time has come” to lower rates. In corporate news, Broadcom shares fell nearly 10% on weak sales forecast and other chip stocks like Nvidia also declined significantly. Overall, stocks whipsawed this week as investors assessed economic data . All three major indexes are set for significant weekly declines.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment grew 142,000 in August 2024 (according to the establishment survey) with the unemployment rate declining insignificantly to 4.2% (according to the household survey). The household survey shows employment growth of 168,000 with the establishment’s growth of 142,000. I generally consider 150,000 job growth as the metric for healthy jobs growth to accommodate new workers entering the economy – and this month the household survey estimated 120,000 additional workers were added to the workforce. So jobs growth this month was more than the estimated workforce growth. Unfortunately manufacturing employment declined while health care, construction, and government were the largest employment growth sectors. No evidence in these numbers of a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Saudi Arabia’s Economic Growth Defies Regional Instability
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drillers Ease Up As Prices Crash
• Toyota Slashes EV Production Goal Amid Global Slowdown
• Texas Denies State Funding to 1.3 GW Natural Gas Plant Project
• Why Oil Prices Fell Back Below $70
• S&P 500 tumbles Friday to post worst week since 2023, Nasdaq drops 2% for worst weekly performance since 2022: Live updates
• Here’s where the jobs are for August 2024 — in one chart
• Fed Governor Waller backs interest rate cut at September meeting, open to larger move
• Home listings are up more than 60% in some cities. Here’s where
• Bitcoin and ether head for second week of losses: CNBC Crypto World
• Oregon Reverses Liberal Drug Law After “Losing A Generation” To Addiction
• The bond market just flashed a reliable recession signal. Don’t panic.
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at lowest since 2022 after August payrolls miss expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 219 points or 0.54%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.25%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.30%,
• Gold $2,544 up $18.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.04,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.733 down 0.035 points,
• USD index $101.11 down $0.24,
• Bitcoin $56,071 down $1,914 or 3.30%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

US stocks showed mixed performance on Thursday as investors processed weaker-than-expected labor market data ahead of Friday’s crucial jobs report. The market remains cautious as it awaits Friday’s August jobs report, which will be crucial for assessing the state of the economy and potential Fed actions.

Labor market data: ADP reported private payrolls grew by only 99,000 in August, the smallest monthly increase since January 2021. Slightly fewer Americans filed new unemployment claims last week. Job openings declined according to Wednesday’s government data. The weak labor data could support the case for deeper interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. However, it may also signal a potential recession, challenging hopes for a “soft landing”.

Federal Reserve expectations: Traders see a nearly 50-50 chance of a 0.5% rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.

Corporate news: C3.ai shares fell 8% after weak subscription revenue. HPE stock slipped on disappointing profitability. Tesla pared earlier gains but still rose nearly 5% on plans to launch Full Self-Driving software in China and Europe.

Sector performance: Information Technology has fallen nearly 4% over the past four days. Apple is down 3% and Nvidia down nearly 9% in the same period.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 99,000 jobs in August 2024 according to ADP. Now, it seems, that the BLS employment numbers now resemble the numbers ADP was releasing for the past year (over this past month the BLS has significantly revised their numbers downward). On the following graph, the blue line is ADP whilst the red line is the BLS’ numbers. Likely the ADP management are giving each other high fives. 99,000 is not a great number but it is not recessionary either. An adequate monthly employment growth number would be at least 150,000 to account for population growth. Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP added:

The job market’s downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth. The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown.

NFIB’s August 2024 jobs report found that 40% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in August, up two points from July. Labor quality as the top small business operating problem rose two points from July to 21%, the highest level reported since January of this year. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Job openings on Main Street remain historically high as small business owners continue to lament the lack of qualified applicants for their open positions. Owners have grown understandably frustrated as attempts to fill their workforce repeatedly stall and cost pressures continue to rise.

U.S.-based employers announced 75,891 cuts in August 2024, a 193% increase from the 25,885 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 1% from the 75,151 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. For the year, companies have announced 536,421 job cuts, down 3.7% from 557,057 announced through August of last year. Excluding the 115,762 job cuts announced in August of 2020, last month was the highest August total since 2009, when 76,456 layoffs were recorded. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. added:

August’s surge in job cuts reflects growing economic uncertainty and shifting market dynamics. Companies are facing a variety of pressures, from rising operational costs to concerns about a potential economic slowdown, leading them to make tough decisions about workforce management. Cuts are following a very similar trend from last year as ongoing pressures have challenged labor decisions.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7 percent year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024 with unit labor costs growing 0.3% year-over-year. Whenever productivity grows faster than labor costs – companies are becoming more competitive internationally. Unfortunately, the methodology used for determining productivity bears little resemblance to the methodology used by industrial engineers – and my best guess is productivity gains are a result of AI gains in the service industry or in the financial sector. According to this report, manufacturing labor productivity  increased only 0.4% year-over-year while unit labor costs increased a massive 4.3% year-over-year. 

In the week ending August 31, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 230,000, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 231,500 to 231,750. No sign of economic slowing in these unemployment numbers.

In August 2024, the Institute of Supply Management’s Services PMI® registered 51.5 percent, 0.1 percentage point higher than July’s figure of 51.4 percent. The reading in August marked the sixth time the composite index has been in expansion territory in 2024. The Business Activity Index registered 53.3 percent in August, which is 1.2 percentage points lower than the 54.5 percent recorded in July and indicated continuing expansion after one month of contraction in June. As the US is a service based economy, a reading so close to 50 (the line between expansion and contraction) means real economic growth is marginal.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Billions Being Pumped Into Unproven “Climate Solutions”
• U.S. Cracks Down on Russian Disinformation Campaign
• The World’s 10 Most Expensive Megaprojects
• Africa’s Largest Refinery Could Soon Be Allowed to Set Its Own Gasoline Prices
• Singapore Raises Its Clean Power Import Target as Demand Soars
• Russia Ships LNG Straight to Storage as Sanctions Bite
• Dow falls 200 points, S&P 500 posts third straight loss as growth fears plague investors: Live updates
• Friday’s jobs report for August is going to be huge. Here’s what to expect
• The Fed won’t save stocks, sell the first rate cut, says Stifel
• Family offices are about to surpass hedge funds, with $5.4 trillion in assets by 2030
• Rising NFL valuations mean massive returns for owners. Here’s how good the investment is
• After its August selloff, the U.S. dollar may face more downside risk ahead
• 2-, 10-year Treasury yields finish at lowest levels in more than a year again after ADP payrolls report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 38 points or 0.09%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $2,524 up $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $1.46,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.761 down 0.083 points,
• USD index $101.33 down $0.50,
• Bitcoin $57,997 up $467 or 0.81%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

US stocks experienced a mixed trading session on Wednesday, following a steep sell-off the previous day driven by concerns about economic growth and the artificial intelligence sector. Nvidia shares dropped more than 1% after reports of an intensified antitrust probe by US regulators. The previous day saw Nvidia lose $279 billion in market value, indicating waning confidence in the AI boom that has driven much of this year’s gains. Job openings fell to 7.67 million in July, the lowest level since January 2021. This data suggested a cooling labor market, prompting bond yields to fall. Markets now price in a nearly 50% chance of a 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve by the end of its September meeting, up from 38% the previous day. The two-year Treasury yield dropped nearly 10 basis points to 3.79%, its lowest level of 2024. Despite the mixed performance, investors are bracing for potential volatility in September, historically a challenging month for markets. Analysts suggest that stocks may face continued uncertainty following a turbulent August.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

A summary of the US trade situation in July 2024 is that imports are increasing (blue line in the graph below), exports are little changed  (red line in the graph below) – so the trade balance continues to worsen (green line in the graph below). With our manufacturing in a recession and generally not competitive internationally – how will the US trade situation improve over the long term?

In July 2024, the number of job openings was little changed at 7.7 million (6.7 million if you exclude government which is the red line on the graph below) and was down by 1.1 million over the year. This information is lifted from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report. As one can see from the red line on the graph below. there is a correlation between job openings and private employment growth (which is the blue line on the graph below). The bottom line is that since job opening are modestly trending down, I expect jobs growth to also modestly trend down. However, I still expect a good jobs growth going forward in the range of 100,000 to 150,000 per month.

The August 2024 Beige Book is worth a read. The Beige Book is an informal survey of “contacts” by each of the Federal Reserve Districts. Note that it is poor in identifying recessions, but this month’s Beige Book is describing a stalling (or already stalled) US economy.

Economic activity grew slightly in three Districts, while the number of Districts that reported flat or declining activity rose from five in the prior period to nine in the current period. Employment levels were steady overall, though there were isolated reports that firms filled only necessary positions, reduced hours and shifts, or lowered overall employment levels through attrition. Still, reports of layoffs remained rare. On balance, wage growth was modest, while increases in nonlabor input costs and selling prices ranged from slight to moderate. Consumer spending ticked down in most Districts, having generally held steady during the prior reporting period. Auto sales continued to vary by District, with some noting increases in sales and others reporting slowing sales because of elevated interest rates and high vehicle prices. Manufacturing activity declined in most Districts, and two Districts noted that these declines were part of ongoing contractions in the sector. Residential construction and real estate activity were mixed, though most Districts’ reports indicated softer home sales. Likewise, reports on commercial construction and real estate activity were mixed. District contacts generally expected economic activity to remain stable or to improve somewhat in the coming months, though contacts in three Districts anticipated slight declines.

Labor Markets

Employment levels were generally flat to up slightly in recent weeks. Five Districts saw slight or modest increases in overall headcounts, but a few Districts reported that firms reduced shifts and hours, left advertised positions unfilled, or reduced headcounts through attrition—though accounts of layoffs remained rare. Employers were more selective with their hires and less likely to expand their workforces, citing concerns about demand and an uncertain economic outlook. Accordingly, candidates faced increasing difficulties and longer times to secure a job. As competition for workers has eased and staff turnover has fallen, firms felt less pressure to increase wages and salaries. On balance, wages rose at a modest pace, in line with the slowing trend described in recent reports. Skilled tradespeople and other workers with specialized skills remained in short supply and continued to see stronger wage increases, as did those in unions.

Prices

On balance, prices increased modestly in the most recent reporting period. However, three Districts reported only slight increases in selling prices. Nonlabor input cost increases were largely described as modest to moderate and as generally easing, though one District described input cost increases as ticking up. A number of Districts observed that both freight and insurance costs continued to increase. By contrast, some Districts noted that cost pressures moderated for food, lumber, and concrete. Looking ahead, contacts generally expected price and cost pressures to stabilize or ease further in the coming months.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The High Cost of Cheap Chinese Imports
• India Proposes Anti-Dumping Duties on Chinese Aluminum Foil
• Rare Metals Prices Surge As China Restricts Exports
• Citi Reiterates $60 Oil Price Forecast Amid “Bearish Trend”
• OPEC+ Discusses Delaying Supply Boost After Oil Price Crash
• S&P 500 books back-to-back losses as Wall Street grapples with a rocky start to September: Live updates
• Job openings fell more than expected in July in another sign of labor market softening
• U.S. Steel shares plunge on report White House preparing to block Nippon Steel takeover
• Bitcoin recovers from overnight sell-off that pushed it below $56,000: CNBC Crypto World
• Nvidia shares up after plunge that wiped out nearly $300 billion in market cap
• Fracking led the U.S. to pump more oil than any country in history — here’s what that means for the green energy transition
• 2-, 10-year Treasury yields end at lowest levels since 2023 on fears of weakening economy

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 626 points or 1.51%,
• Nasdaq closed down 3.26%,
• S&P 500 closed down 2.12%,
• Gold $2,524 down $3.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $3.23,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.842 down 0.069 points,
• USD index $101.79 up $0.14,
• Bitcoin $58,097 down $1,040 or 1.76%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

Investors started September with a sharp downturn in the stock market, as major indices fell significantly on Tuesday. This decline is partly attributed to the performance of Nvidia (NVDA) and other chip stocks, which led the tech sector downwards. Nvidia fell nearly 10% due to investor concerns following a less-than-expected earnings report and uncertainties about the AI market’s future. Other chip stocks, including Broadcom, Qualcomm, and TSMC, also saw declines of over 6%.The market’s volatility comes amid a crucial week for economic data, with a significant focus on the upcoming monthly jobs report. This report could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts, with traders currently pricing in a 39% chance of a 50 basis point cut. Additionally, a recent report from the Institute for Supply Management indicated a slight uptick in manufacturing activity, though it still suggests a contraction in the sector.Investors are also wary of potential data shocks or surprises related to the presidential race, contributing to the traditionally challenging month of September for markets.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during July 2024 is 6.7% above July 2023 – down from 7.2% the previous month. Spending on private construction was up 6.3% year-over-year – down from 7.2% the previous month. Public construction spending was up 8.1% year-over-year – up from 7.2% the previous month. Still, construction is a bright spot in the economy but its growth rates seems to be moderating.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI^® registered 47.2 percent in August 2024, up 0.4 percentage point from the 46.8 percent recorded in July. The bottom line is that the manufacturing sector remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• North America LNG Exports to Double As Qatar Wins WIth Long-Term Contracts
• Central Asian Republics Aim for $2 Billion in Bilateral Trade
• Volkswagen’s 87-Year Streak of German Production Hangs in the Balance
• Expanded Trans Mountain Upends North American Oil Flows and Pipeline Tolls
• Oil Prices Plunge on OPEC+ Production Cut Speculation
• Dow closes 600 points lower to begin September, S&P 500 drops 2%: Live updates
• Weak manufacturing measures raise specter of U.S. economic slowdown
• Nvidia plunges almost 10%, dragging basket of chip stocks to worst day since March 2020
• The jobs report is back as the king of all economic releases
• Bitcoin dips to $57,000 level and crypto stocks tumble to begin September trading: CNBC Crypto World
• Homebuyer’s Down Payment Hits ‘Record High,’ Surging Nearly 15 Percent In A Year
• Treasury yields end lower after soft U.S. manufacturing data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 228 points or 0.55%, (Closed at 41,563, New Historic high 41.585)
• Nasdaq closed up 1.13%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.01%,
• Gold $2,535 down $25.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.40,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.909 up 0.042 points,
• USD index $101.67 up $0.33,
• Bitcoin $58,806 down $550 or 0.93%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 583 Canada +1 to 220

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

US stocks ended August on a positive note, with all three major indexes posting gains for the month despite earlier volatility. Here are the key points:

Inflation Data and Rate Cut Expectations

• • The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, showed prices increased in line with expectations in July.
  • Core inflation rose 0.2% month-over-month and 2.6% annually, matching June’s level.
  • This data kept hopes alive for a 0.25% interest rate cut in September, as hinted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.

Market Sentiment

• • Stocks took an upbeat tone as recession fears receded and expectations grew for the Fed to begin easing monetary policy.
  • Investors have moved past the focus on Nvidia’s earnings that dominated earlier in the week.

Looking Ahead

• • September could bring more volatility, as it has historically been a weak month for stocks.
  • The market will be closely watching for further signs of the Fed’s policy pivot and its impact on the economy.

Despite a bumpy August, the stock market ended the month on a high note, with inflation data supporting expectations for a Fed rate cut in September. However, investors should be prepared for potential volatility in the coming month.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real disposable personal income (DPI), inflation adjusted personal income less personal current taxes, increased 1.1% year-over-year – up from last month’s 1.0%. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.7% year-over-year – down from last month’s 2.8%. The PCE price index (aka “inflation”) was unchanged at 2.5%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also was unchanged at 2.6%. The bottom line is that neither consumption or inflation is changing. As I continue to state, there is ZERO evidence that the underlying inflationary forces are moderating today. Every day, consumers are getting poorer as their income is only up 1.1% year-over-year whilst their spending is up 2.8%. Wall Street is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut rates for the benefit of traders while the real burden of inflation is being born by the working who are made poorer every day.

The Chicago Business Barometer moved up 0.8 points in August 2024 to 46.1. Any value below 50 shows contraction. The reason this minor indicator is important is that pundits believe it is indicative of the ISM manufacturing survey which will be released next week. The bottom line here is that manufacturing is not doing well.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EPA Extends Emergency Waiver for Midwest Gasoline Supply
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity. Oil Production Slip
• Texas to Consider $5.4 Billion Loans for New Natural Gas Plants
• Libya Is Back on the Brink of Civil War
• Maduro Clings to Power in Venezuela
• Stocks close higher Friday, S&P 500 posts fourth straight winning month: Live updates
• The Fed’s favorite inflation indicator increased 0.2% in July, as expected
• FDA authorizes Novavax’s updated Covid vaccine, paving way for fall rollout
• Ether heads for over 20% loss in August, bitcoin faces fourth weekly loss in five: CNBC Crypto World
• Fewer people are purchasing homes, despite high demand—buyers are in ‘wait and see’ mode
• The Fed’s Fiat Money Is The Real Cause Of Price Inflation
• Extreme Gaslighting: Here Are 7 Signs That The Mainstream Media Is Flat Out Lying To Us About The Economy
• Social Security’s return on investment is a joke compared with state and local pension funds. Where is our money going?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 244 points or 0.59%, (Closed at 41,335, New Historic high 41.578)
• Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
• S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
• Gold $2,555 up $17.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.43,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.867 up 0.026 points,
• USD index $101.38 up $0.28,
• Bitcoin $59,482 up $379 or 0.64%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Highlights

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a new record high marking its third record close this week. Key factors were:

Nvidia Earnings

• • Nvidia’s quarterly profit and revenue guidance topped estimates, but fell short of high expectations.
  • This raised questions about whether the AI boom has peaked.
  • Nvidia shares ended down around 6% despite Wall Street remaining bullish on the stock.

You will find more infographics at Statista

Economic Data

• • Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3% annualized, higher than the previous 2.8% estimate.
  • Weekly jobless claims came in at 231,000, lower than expected.

Other Earnings

• • Salesforce shares rose after beating earnings expectations.
  • Best Buy shares jumped up to 17% on better-than-expected results.
  • Dollar General shares plunged 30% after cutting its full-year outlook.

The mixed market performance reflects investors assessing Nvidia’s earnings alongside stronger-than-expected economic data, as they also consider the Federal Reserve’s future interest rate decisions.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 36% to 149 in July from 234 in June. It is down 24% from 197 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

The labor market is softening, and companies are finding ways to lower costs. Companies have made leadership changes in response to AI, the political landscape, and international events causing substantial impacts on business conditions.

The second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2024. Using a year-over-year metric, there was no change in growth between the advance and second estimates in 2Q2024. In the first quarter, real GDP increased at 2.9% year-over-year. The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, private inventory investment, and nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased . The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6% year-over-year in the second quarter – up from the 2.4% year-over-year in 1Q2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Beijing and Washington Clash Over Russia Sanctions
• UK Plans New Environmental Guidance for North Sea Oil and Gas Firms
• How China is Circumventing Sanctions to Buy Iranian Oil
• CNOOC Expects Oil Prices to Remain Rangebound Between $75 and $85
• Traders Concerned About Near-Term Risks for European Gas Supply
• Dow rises 200 points for fresh record close, Nasdaq falls as Nvidia shares tumble: Live updates
• The Fed’s preferred inflation indicator is out Friday. Here’s what to expect
• Disillusioned crypto investors are struggling behind bitcoin’s ETF success
• Nvidia shares fall despite earnings beating estimates
• Bitcoin drifts back to $60,000, trimming the week’s losses: CNBC Crypto World
• Apple, Nvidia Eye Investments In OpenAI As ChatGPT Hits $100 Billion Valuation
• Treasury yields rise after latest batch of U.S. economic data
• With earnings season behind us, the stock market is aiming at new all-time highs

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.