19 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Investors See Volatile Trading Ahead Of The Fed’s Next Possible 100-Point Rate Hike, Inflation Remains High

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 197 points or 0.64%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.76%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.69%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 85 up 0.45%,
  • USD $109.63 strengthened 0.12%,
  • Gold $1683 up 0.02%,
  • Bitcoin $19,514 up 0.45% – Session Low 18,340,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.487 Unchanged,

Today’s Economic Releases:

In another sign that the slowdown in the housing market continues, builder sentiment fell for the ninth straight month in September as the combination of elevated interest rates, persistent building material supply chain disruptions and high home prices continue to take a toll on affordability. Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points in September to 46, the lowest level since May 2014 with the exception of the spring of 2020.

In a still-tight labor market, 85% of companies are actively hiring, up from 81% in the spring of this year. Despite the need for workers, 53% of companies expect a recession and 31% are taking actions to prepare for a slowdown, according to new survey results from global outplacement and executive leadership coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Gasoline Prices See Longest Downward Streak Since 2015
  • Germany’s Natural Gas Storage Will Last For Two And A Half Months
  • FAA rejects proposal to halve flight-time requirement for pilots as shortage prompts route cuts
  • Tesla Is Hiking Supercharger Prices “Significantly” Across Europe
  • Powerful Earthquake Shakes Central Mexico, Tsunami Warning Issued
  • US Gas Producers Struggle To Meet Demand: Kemp
  • Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, stocks snap two-day losing streak to start big Fed week

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

16 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Lower Today After FedEx Earnings Warning Of Weakening Global Demand

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 139 points or 0.45%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.90%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.72%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85 up 0.27%,
  • USD $109.74 little changed,
  • Gold $1683 up 0.38%,
  • Bitcoin $19.649 down 0.18% – Session Low 19,370,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.453% Unchanged,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 763 Canada +6 to 211

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5% on September 15, down from 1.3% on September 9. After this week’s releases from the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7% and -6.1%, respectively, to 0.4% and -6.4%, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3% to 2.0%. What this decline in GDPNow says that the economy was only modestly (and not significantly) improving in 3Q2022 as the previous two quarters in 2022 were in contraction – but it is noteworthy that the data coming at the end of 3Q2022 is weak and may be signaling another contraction in 4Q2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • U.S. And EU Nickel Imports From Russia Surge
  • Michael Jordan’s ‘Last Dance’ jersey sells for a record-breaking $10.1 million
  • London’s Heathrow alters 15% of Monday flights for Queen Elizabeth II’s funeral
  • FedEx shares sink after company cites weakening global demand
  • 1.3 Million Jobs Were Result Of Double-Counting This Year, Heritage Economist Says
  • New York City ‘Nearing Its Breaking Point’ With Influx Of Illegal Immigrants From Texas: Mayor

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

15 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Attempted One shot In The Green And It Was Downhill From There, Today’s Session Illustrates Investors Continued High Interest And Recession Fears

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 173 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.43%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.13%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $85 down 3.77%,
  • USD $109.75 weakened 0.06%,
  • Gold $1673 down 2.14%,
  • Bitcoin $19.844 down 2.00% – Session Low 19,612,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.449% Unchanged,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined in September 2022. The index for returned to negative territory, falling from 6.2 in August to -9.9 this month. The new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index declined but remained positive. This index is showing a weakly growing economy.

Prices for U.S. imports grew 7.8% year-over-year in August following a 8.7% YoY in July whilst U.S. export prices grew 10.8% in August after growing 12.9% the previous month. The trend of inflation is this sector continues to modestly abate.

In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000. New unemployment claims continues to modestly improve which is a sign of an improving economy.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were 9.1% above August 2021. This is the first month since March 2022 where the inflation-adjusted YoY growth returned to positive territory (1.2% – red line on the graph below). This implies the economy is modestly growing in August.

the September 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey index climbed thirty points to -1.5. New orders edged higher, and shipments increased sharply. This index is implying a modest decline in manufacturing.

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production decreased 0.2% in August. However, year-over-year growth has been holding quite steady at 3.7%. In fact, all elements of industrial production remain in positive territory EXCEPT utilities which show a 1.6% YoY contraction. This data set is indicating the economy is expanding at a healthy rate.

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was up 12.5% from July 2021. Inventories Manufacturers’ and trade inventories for July were up 18.4% from July 2021. The key indicator of the health of this sector is the total business inventories/sales ratio which was 1.32. The July 2021 ratio was 1.26. These numbers indicate that inventories are growing with respect to sales – but remain in the range seen in the last 10 years [it could be just the supply chain catching up].

Learn how to spot a price pattern and create a step-by-step trading plan in Elliott Wave International’s course, “The Wave Principle Applied.” This $99 course is FREE for a limited time. Start learning now — Free.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Germanys Tesla Plant Is Facing Yet Another Hurdle
  • U.S. Natural Gas Prices Plummet On Rail Deal, Storage Build
  • Railroads and labor unions reach tentative deal to avert strike
  • Frontier Airlines recently held talks with SpaceX about adding Starlink Wi-Fi
  • Greenpeace Intensifies Campaign Against Bitcoin Following Ethereum’s Merge
  • Greenpeace Intensifies Campaign Against Bitcoin Following Ethereum’s Merge
  • US mortgage rates hit 14-year high as inflation soars

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

14September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Three Major Indexes Recovered From Yesterday’s Worst Day Of 2022, Trading Mostly Along The Unchanged Line Finally Closed Modestly Up, Recession and Inflation Fears Main Topic Of Investors

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 30 points or 0.10%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.74%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.34%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $89 up 2.03% for the week,
  • USD $109.82 strengthened 0.14%,
  • Gold $1705 down 0.73%,
  • Bitcoin $19.958 down 1.07% – Session Low 19,691,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.412 Unchanged,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 8.7% for the 12 months ended in August 2022 – down from last month’s 9.8%. The decrease in the index for final demand is attributable to a decline in final demand goods which was somewhat offset by a rise in final demand services. The CPI released yesterday for August 2022 showed an 8.2% YoY rise. In general, the CPI and PPI move in the same direction.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • U.S. Producer Prices Index Drops On Lower Gasoline Prices
  • Japan Plans To Restart Seven Nuclear Reactors By Summer 2023
  • Railroads say they won’t lock out workers as negotiators meet with Labor Secretary Walsh
  • Taxpayers can avoid a ‘very nasty surprise’ by making quarterly payments by Sept. 15
  • Mortgage demand from homebuyers falls 29% since last year, as interest rates surge past 6%
  • Powell’s Pivot To “Pain” But No Gain: Triggering The Coming Recession
  • Bond Report: Short-term Treasury yield holds at nearly 15-year high a day after August CPI shock
  • Market Extra: Markets are waking up to the notion that inflation hasn’t peaked

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

13September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Waterfalls For Worst Day Of 2022 After Hot Inflation Data. Odds Of 100bps Fed Rate Hike to 47%.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 1,276 points or 3.94%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 5.16%,
  • S&P 500 down 4.32%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 88 down 1.48% for the week,
  • USD $109.82 weakening 1.52%,
  • Gold $1713 down 1.59%,
  • Bitcoin $20,298 down 9.50% – Session Low 20,104,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.27% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.9 points in August to 91.8, marking the eighth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98 but reversing some of the declines in the first half of the year. Per NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

The small business economy is still recovering from the pandemic while inflation continues to be a serious problem for owners across the nation. Owners are managing the rising costs of utilities, fuel, labor, supplies, materials, rent, and inventory to protect their earnings. The worker shortage is impacting small business productivity as owners raise compensation to attract better workers.

The CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights report shows overall mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates remained near two-decade lows in June 2022, with home price growth that remains in double digits and a strong U.S. job market helping to keep mortgage performance healthy. Overall mortgage delinquencies and foreclosure rates remained near two-decade lows.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 months was 8.3% – modestly down from the 8.5% posted last month. Shelter, food, and medical care indexes were the largest of many contributors applying upward pressure. These increases were offset by a 10.6-percent decline in the gasoline index. The bottom line is that the core index (removing food and energy) actually increased (red line on the graph below). Note that this extremely modest decline in the CPI keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve to continue to significantly boost the federal funds rate to fight inflation.

The word on the street is, the one stock institutional investors cannot get enough of right now is Berkshire Hathaway. Yes, Warren Buffet’s company. Why? With thousands of “under-the-radar” opportunities available to institutions, why go for the tried-and-true BRK? Because it is tried and true. Because the man running it has been in the markets twice as long as many of today’s investors have been alive. Because experience matters. Elliott Wave International is giving you 4 short excerpts from their August Global Market Perspective. FREE. (Easily a $30 value). We think you will appreciate the insights. It’s EWI’s quick take on markets in the U.S., Europe, and Asia, plus a look at the U.S. dollar. FREE: Get “4 Market Charts You Won’t See Anywhere Else” now.

Child poverty, calculated by the Supplemental Poverty Measure (SPM), fell to its lowest recorded level in 2021, declining 46% from 9.7% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021, according to U.S. Census Bureau data released today.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Oil Prices Inch Lower On Hot Inflation Data
  • Cyberattacks Are A Major Risk For The Worlds Largest Oil Company
  • NBA suspends Suns owner Robert Sarver for a year over workplace harassment, use of racial slurs
  • Why Toyota – the world’s largest automaker – isn’t all-in on electric vehicles
  • Half Of U.S. Workers Are “Quiet Quitters”
  • Fed Mouthpiece Speaks: “At LEAST 75bps Next Week” Sends Odds Of 100bps Rate Hike to 47%
  • Market Snapshot: Dow down 1,000 points as losses accelerate, stocks face worst session since mid-June

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

12Sep2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Good Day For The Markets. Strategic Petroleum Reserve Has Been Drawn Down To The Lowest Since September 1984.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 230 points or 0.71%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.27%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.06%,
  • Gold $1737 up $7.8,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $1.13,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.354%  little changed,
  • USD index $108.32 strengthened 0.63%,
  • Bitcoin $22,378 up 2.72%,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The CoreLogic National Fraud Risk Index saw a decrease year-over-year, however recent trends indicate fraud risk is back on the rise. The decline is partially due to the recalibration of our scoring model in the first quarter of 2022. However, higher risks were recorded during months in the second quarter, particularly for certain types of mortgage fraud.

On Friday, the Federal Reserve released their Z.1 Financial Accounts which shows a drop in household networth of 4.1% in 2Q2022 (not inflation adjusted – the the decline mostly due to the stock market). Our Joe Six Pack Index which is modeled on the average American who owns a house (and little more) shows that Joe’s financial health actually improved if one ignores inflation (and declined if you decide inflation is an important element of net worth) – red line on graph below.

The federal budget deficit was $944 billion in the first 11 months of fiscal year 2022 (that is, from October 2021 through August 2022), the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$1.8 trillion less than it was at the same point last year.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the August 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations continued to decline across all horizons.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • China’s Economic Stumbles Weigh On Metal Prices
  • Fitch Ratings: EU Will Not Get More Pipeline Gas from Russia Until Year End
  • Holiday airfare will be most expensive in 5 years as pandemic fears wane
  • Biden Withdraws Record Amount Of Crude From ‘Strategic Midterm Reserve’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

09Sep2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Week Ends On A High Note For The Markets

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 377 points or 1.19%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.11%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.53%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 down 3.21%,
  • USD index $109.99 down 0.65%,
  • Gold $1727 up 0.4%,
  • Bitcoin $21,249 up 9.98%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.317% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total Average Equity Per Homeowner Hits a Record High of $300,000 in Q2 per CoreLogic. Homeowners with mortgages gained a collective $3.6 trillion year over year in the second quarter of 2022. The following graph shows the average equity gain by state.

July 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.4% from last month but was up 15.3% from July 2021. As the numbers are not inflation adjusted, the inventory-to-sales ratio YoY change is the best way to look at the data – and this data shows that the inventory is modestly shrinking with respect to sales which somewhat indicates a modestly growing economy (see graph below).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Magnetic Breakthrough Could Help Save Electricity
  • EU Energy Ministers Divided On Russian Natural Gas Price Cap
  • Oil Rig Count Slides In Tough Week For Crude
  • Burger King unveils $400 million plan to revive U.S. sales with investments in renovations and advertising
  • GM is betting on its electric Equinox, starting at $30,000, to kick-start ‘massive adoption’ of EVs
  • “Yellen Was Massively Blind” – RH CEO Routs ‘Slow & Wrong’ Policymakers For Making Things Worse
  • Greece Informs Allies Of Ukraine-Style War Looming With Turkey

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

08Sep2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Up And So Does Consumer Credit

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 193 points or 0.61%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.6%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.66%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 up 0.85%,
  • USD index $109.63 down 0.19%,
  • Gold $1718 down 0.51%,
  • Bitcoin $19,402 up 0.56%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.317% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

The 2022 Wildfire Risk Report was issued by CoreLogic showing that the wildfire risk landscape is evolving. With the U.S. population increasing and residential development extending farther from metro areas, more homes and businesses will face the threat of wildfires. Read the report [here].

In the week ending September 3, the 4 week moving average was 233,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The initial unemployment claims is suggesting the economy is modestly improving.

In July 2022, the Federal Reserve says consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11.6%, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.4%. There is no question consumer credit is increasing but it is being driven by by revolving credit (mostly credit cards) – and my prefered view using YoY analysis shows total credit is increasing 7.7%, revolving credit 14.9%, and non-revolving credit 5.7%. Unfortunately, much of the increase in credit is being caused by:

  • inflation forcing many families to resort to credit cards to meet their daily needs., and
  • goods and services inflation is running over 8%, and one would expect credit to expand at the same rate as inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:
  • Putin’s Energy Weapon Is Backfiring
  • How Will China’s New $44 Billion Stimulus Impact Steel Prices?
  • UK Puts A Cap On Household Energy Bills
  • GM is betting on its electric Equinox, starting at $30,000, to kick-start ‘massive adoption’ of EVs
  • Moviegoing won’t return to pre-pandemic levels, says former Disney CEO Bob Iger
  • Queen Elizabeth II: A life in pictures
  • United Airlines raises bet on electric air taxis with 200 aircraft from upstart Eve

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

07September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Rallies Sending Major Indexes Higher, Nasdaq Snaps 7-Day Slump, Investors Shake Off Feds Rate Hike Concerns And Beige Book

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 436 points or 1.40%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.14%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.83%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down 11.09% for the week,
  • USD $109.80 down 0.41,
  • Gold $1728 up 0.9%,
  • Bitcoin $19,000 up 0.79% – Session Low 18,612,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.26% down 0.082

Today’s Economic Releases:

The goods and services deficit was $70.6 billion in July 2022, down $10.2 billion from $80.9 billion in June. July exports were $259.3 billion, $0.5 billion more than June exports. July imports were $329.9 billion, $9.7 billion less than June imports. Slowing imports usually is a sign of a slowing economy.

The Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts, shows economic activity was unchanged, on balance, since early July, with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening. More anecdotal evidence the economy is slowing.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The Energy Transition Could Be Derailed By A Looming Copper Shortage
  • Trump SPAC deal at risk as merger deadline approaches
  • Homeowners lose wealth as rising interest rates weigh on home values
  • Mortgage demand drops further as interest rates shoot back to June high
  • BofA Warns “Not Enough Capitulation” For Bottom Yet
  • Bad News Is Great: Stocks Hit Session Highs After Beige Book Downgrades Growth, Sees “Softening” Demand, Moderating Price Growth

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

06 September 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Main Indexes Open High, Sea-Saw Across The Unchanged Line And Close Near Session Lows, Tech Slides, Crypto, Credit, & Commodities Smashed

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 173 points or 0.55%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.74%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.41%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 down 0.59%,
  • USD $110.26 up 0.33,
  • Gold $1700 up 0.01%,
  • Bitcoin $18,732 down 5.07% – Session Low 18,732,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.342% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

In August 2022 the Institute for Supply Management’s Services PMI® registered 56.9% up 0.2 points from July.

According to CoreLogic’s Home Price Insights report, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 15.8% in July 2022 compared with July 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.3% in July 2022 compared with June 2022. The home price increase cooling trend continues with CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicating that home prices will increase on a year-over-year basis by 3.8% from July 2022 to July 2023.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Energy Independence Will Not Solve The Global Gas Crunch
  • U.S. Natural Gas Futures Shed Over 5% On Soaring Output
  • Lowe’s chief marketing officer leaves the company as part of a broader reorganization
  • U.S. travelers are getting bigger discounts in much of Europe amid favorable euro-dollar exchange rate
  • Labor Day weekend air travel surpasses 2019 levels as airlines cap a rocky summer
  • Tech Tumbles To Worst Streak In 6 Years; Crypto, Credit, & Commodities Clobbered
  • “Sell My Car” Search Trends Explode 222% To All-Time High In September

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.