Posts by Gary Hall

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 143 points or 0.42%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.76%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.61%,
• Gold $1819 down $6.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.98,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.476% down 0.026 points,
• USD index $103.63 down $0.35,
• Bitcoin $17,827 up $54.60

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

U.S. import prices moderated in November 2022 to 2.7% year-over-year from 4.1% the previous month. Lower nonfuel and fuel prices contributed to the November decline in U.S. import prices. U.S. export prices also moderated to 6.3% from 7.4% the previous month. Lower nonagricultural prices in November more than offset higher agricultural prices. This is another sign that inflation is moderating.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 104 points or 0.30%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.01%,
• S&P 500 up 0.73%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $2.25,
• USD $104.97 up $1.10,
• Gold $1823 up $30.40,
• Bitcoin $17,751 up 3.86% – Session Low 17,107,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.519% down 0.095%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Inflation Pressures Ease Slightly on Main Street but Remains the Top Business Problem according to November’s Optimism Index reading stays below 49-year average. Inflation remains the top business problem for small business owners, with 32% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their business, five points lower than July’s highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1979. The Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.6 points in November to 91.9.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 months increased by 7.1% (blue line in the graph below) – but has declined almost 2% from the high mark this year AND is now at the lowest level in 2022.  The index for all items less food and energy declined to 6.0% (red line in the graph below). This does take some pressure off of the Federal Reserve as it is beginning to show their policies are making progress in lowering inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 529 points or 1.58%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.26%,
• S&P 500 up 1.43%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $2.39,
• USD $104.97 up $0.20,
• Gold $1792 down $19.30,
• Bitcoin $17,153 up 0.18% – Session Low 16,890,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.613% up 0.046%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the November 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations decreased in November at the short, medium, and longer terms. Home price growth expectations continued to decline. Labor market expectations strengthened, while household income growth expectations increased to a new series high. Median inflation expectations decreased at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons in November to 5.2% and 3.0% respectively.

Per the monthly Treasury Statement issued by US Treasury, November has been a deficit month 68 times out of 69 fiscal years since there are no major tax due dates in this month.  The deficit in November 2022 was $249 billion.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 305 points or 0.90%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.70%,
• S&P 500 down 0.73%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.06,
• USD $104.97 up $0.20,
• Gold $1808 up $6.10,
• Bitcoin $17,105 down 0.50% – Session Low 17,098,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.575% up 0.83%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 780 Canada + 7 to 202

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand moderated to 7.4% for the 12 months ended in November. One would expect the Consumer Price Index to come in next week around the same level.

October 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were up 11.9% from the revised October 2021 level. Total inventories were up 21.9% from the revised October 2021 level. The October inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.32. The October 2021 ratio was 1.21. Sales to inventory ratio is the proper way to look at wholesale trade as it does not need to be adjusted for inflation. A rising ration normally signals a slowing economy.

CoreLogic today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the third quarter of 2022. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) saw equity increase by 15.8% year over year, representing a collective gain of $2.2 trillion, for an average of $34,300 per borrower, since the third quarter of 2021. Annual home equity gains began to slow in the third quarter of 2022, with the average borrower netting $34,300, compared with the nearly $60,000 year-over-year gain recorded in the second quarter.

The University of Michigan Preliminary consumer sentiment for December 2022 rose 4% above November, recovering most of the losses from November but remaining low from a historical perspective. All components of the index lifted, with one-year business conditions surging 14% and long-term business conditions increasing a more modest 6%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 184 points or 0.54%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.13%,
• S&P 500 up 0.75%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.59,
• USD $105.13 down $0.44,
• Gold $1800 up $2.10,
• Bitcoin $17,203 up 2.25% – Session Low 16,797,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.487% up 0.81%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

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The Atlanta Fed’s Wage Growth Tracker is a measure of the nominal wage growth of individuals. It was 6.4 percent in November, the same as in October. For people who changed jobs, the Tracker in November was 8.1 percent, compared to 7.6 percent in October. For those not changing jobs, the Tracker was 5.5 percent, similar to the 5.4 percent reading in October.

In the week ending December 3, the advance figure for unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 230,000, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 228,750 to 229,000.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 1.58 points or 0.00%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.51%,
• S&P 500 down 0.19%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $1.92,
• USD $105.13 down $0.44,
• Gold $1800 up $17.50,
• Bitcoin $16,832 down 0.94% – Session Low 16,755,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.413% down 0.10%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

3Q2022 nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased 1.3% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) while labor costs increased 5.3% (red line on the graph below) year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 351 points or 1.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.00%,
• S&P 500 down 1.44%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.52,
• USD $105.55 up $0.26,
• Gold $1784 up $2.40,
• Bitcoin $16,992 up 0.23% – Session Low 16,926,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.519% down 0.08%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $78.2 billion in October 2022, up $4.0 billion from $74.1 billion in September, revised. The October increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $6.1 billion to $99.6 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $2.1 billion to $21.4 billion.

Home prices nationwide increased year over year by 10.1% in October 2022 compared with October 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.1% in October 2022 compared with September 2022. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a month-over-month basis by 0.0% from October 2022 to November 2022 and on a year-over-year basis by 4.1% from October 2022 to October 2023.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 483 points or 1.40%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.93%,
• S&P 500 down 1.79%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 77 down $2.67,
• USD $105.32 uo $0.78,
• Gold 1780 down $29.70,
• Bitcoin $16,945 down 1.45% – Session Low 16,895,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.588% up 0.085%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

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New orders for manufactured goods in October 2022, up twelve of the last thirteen months, increased by 1.0%, the U.S. Census Bureau reported today. In perspective, inflation-adjusted sales (red line on the graph below) – continue in contraction year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 35 points or 0.10%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
• S&P 500 down 0.12%,
• WTI crude oil settled at 80 down $0.98,
• USD $104.56 down $0.16,
• Gold $1812 down $2.80,
• Bitcoin $17,006 up 0.57% – Session Low 16,861,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.492% down 0.035%
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 784 Canada +1 to 195

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7% according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The biggest job gains were in leisure and hospitality, health care, and government. Employment declined in retail trade and in transportation and warehousing. The BLS reduced the workforce by 186,000. It was interesting that the household survey reduced the number employed by 138,000 – and contrast that with the establishment survey which produces the headline number growth of 263,000. 263,000 is more than a satisfactory employment growth number but I believe there are warning signs in the data – especially in temporary help which fell 17,200 which is a bellwether number indicating softening of the labor market. The graph below compare the ADP growth numbers (blue line) to today’s BLS numbers (red line). From the graph, one can see the continued moderation of employment growth during 2022.

As pandemic concerns recede to probably their lowest point since lockdowns began in early 2020, companies are ready to celebrate in-person with their teams. According to new survey results from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., 56.9% of companies report they are having in-person holiday parties this year, up from 26.6% who reported this last year and just 5.3% who held in-person parties in 2020.  Another nearly 2% will hold virtual events this year, down from 7% in 2021 and 17% in 2020. Nearly 6% of companies reported they held in-person gatherings outside, during warm weather this year in lieu of holding year-end celebrations.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 193 points or 0.56%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.13%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.08%,
• Gold $1817 up $57.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.508% down 0.193%,
• USD index $104.72 down $1.23,
• Bitcoin $16,913 down $260.80

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Small businesses reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 21%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Nine percent of owners reported labor cost as their single most important problem, down one point from October.

U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November, a 127% increase from the 33,843 cuts announced in October. It is 417% higher than the 14,875 cuts announced in the same month last year. The bulk of the job cuts were in the tech sector.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.7% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.8%. The PCE price index increased by 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 0.2%. Year-over-year growth shows income is down 4.9% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below whilst expenditures is up 2.1% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

Construction spending during October 2022 was estimated at 9.2% above the October 2021. Unfortunately, inflation in this sector is significant and the year-over-year growth is -8.7% (see graph below).

In the week ending November 26, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 228,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 226,750 to 227,000. Claims have stayed relatively stable throughout 2022.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. “The November Manufacturing PMI registered 49%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2% recorded in October. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: