Posts by Gary Hall

• The Dow closed down 141 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed up 139 points or 0.76%,
• S&P 500 closed up 12 points or 0.21%,
• Gold $2,749 up $19.10 or 0.07%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.26 or 0.35%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.210 up 0.032 points or 0.258%,
• USD index $104.02 down $0.41 or 0.39%,
• Bitcoin $68,144 up $1,894 or 2.78%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Nasdaq Composite gained, led by Tesla’s strong performance. The S&P 500 closed up while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell extending losses from the previous day. Tesla reported its biggest quarterly profit in over a year. Tesla shares surged more than 20%, its best day in over a decade. CEO Elon Musk forecasted 20% to 30% EV sales growth next year. The company grew adjusted EBITDA margins for the first time in over a year. IBM shares fell over 6% following a third-quarter revenue miss. Boeing shares sagged around 1% after striking workers rejected a pay deal.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were up 6.3% above September 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 470,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate. New home construction is one of the bright spots in the economy.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI ) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.19 in September from –0.14 in August. A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. The CFNAI is my favorite coincident indicator, and shows a continuing weak economy.

Kansas Fed manufacturing activity declined modestly in October 2024. The month-over-month composite index was -4, up from -8 in September. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

In the week ending October 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 238,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 236,250 to 236,500. There is no sign of a recession in this data.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Valero Could Be Next To Shutter California Oil Refineries
• Mckinsey: Europe’s Data Center Power Demand To Triple By 2030
• Russia’s Advance Threatens to Cripple Ukraine’s Steel Industry
• Saudi Oil Export Revenues Hit Three-Year Low as Prices Decline
• Tesla Stock Soars After Q3 Earnings Beat
• China’s Coal Imports Could Decline in 2025
• Tesla stock soars 20%, heads for best day in over a decade on Musk’s 2025 growth projection
• S&P 500 rises to end three-day losing run, lifted by surge in Tesla: Live updates
• U.S. will be ‘more pro-crypto’ after this election, no matter who wins, says Ripple CEO Garlinghouse
• Bitcoin eyes $68,000 as it reclaims some weekly losses: CNBC Crypto World
• Hezbollah Targets Tel Aviv With Large Iranian Missiles Launched From Underground Silos
• Why stock investors have been on edge over the prospects of a total sweep for Republicans

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 410 points or 0.96%,
• Nasdaq closed down 296 points or 1.60%,
• S&P 500 closed down 54 points or 0.92%,
• Gold $2,730 down $30.00 or 1.09%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.76 or 1.07%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.240 down 0.034 points or 0.273%,
• USD index $104.39 up $0.32 or 0.30%,
• Bitcoin $66,308 down $1,107 or 1.67%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Stocks slumped, with major indexes falling: The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.24%, reaching levels not seen since July. Doubts about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on investors. Interest rate volatility hit its highest level since December 2023. Busy earnings day, highlighted by Boeing and Tesla reports. Tesla (TSLA) earnings due at 5:30 pm EST, with focus on the cheaper EV model Robotaxi . Boeing (BA) reported a large quarterly loss – what a surprise :). McDonald’s (MCD) stock fell over 5% after its Quarter Pounder burgers were linked to an E. coli outbreak. Several big tech names lagged: Meta down over 3%. Amazon down over 2.5%. Nvidia down over 2.5%.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total existing-home sales fell 3.5% year-over-year in September 2024. The median existing-home price was $404,500, up 3.0% from one year ago. Existing home sales has been declining all this year (see blue line in the graph below). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a four-million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” said . “There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy. Perhaps, some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election. Moderating home price increases are welcome news for home buyers. With wage growth now outpacing home price appreciation, housing affordability will improve. 

According to the October 2024 Beige Book, overall economic activity was largely unchanged across most Federal Reserve Districts. Two districts reported modest growth. Manufacturing activity declined in most districts. Banking sector activity was steady to slightly, with mixed loan demand. Consumer spending reports were mixed, with shifts toward less expensive options.  Housing market activity has generally held steady, though affordability remains an issue. Commercial real estate markets were mostly flat. The agricultural and energy sectors saw flat to modest declines. Employment increased slightly overall. Worker turnover was low and layoffs remained limited. Hiring focused more on replacement than growth. Worker availability improved in many areas. Wages continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace. The pace of wage increases slowed in some areas. Inflation continued to moderate, with slight to modest price increases in most districts. Some food products saw sharper price increases. Home prices edged up in many areas. Consumers showed increased price sensitivity. Input prices generally rose faster than selling prices, compressing profit margins. Insurance and healthcare costs saw more acute price pressures. Note that the Beige Book is a compilation of anecdotal information from various sources, including business leaders, economists, and market experts – bottom line is that this is unsubstantiated opinion.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Kazakhstan Seeks Permanent Normal Trade Status with U.S.
• Harbour Energy Joins North Sea Oil Exodus Ahead Of Tax Hikes
• Shell Buys US Power Plant for Foothold in New England Market
• Oil Ticks Lower on Crude, Gasoline Build
• Tesla investors have a lot of questions for Musk about Trump
• Shares of Peloton surge 11% after David Einhorn says stock is significantly undervalued
• Dow tumbles 400 points, suffering worst day since early September: Live updates
• Bitcoin dips to $65,000 level, continuing to shed last week’s gains: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 4.25%, hits highest level since late July
• Ugly, Dovish Beige Book Warns Of Manufacturing Decline In “Most Districts”, Greenlights Further Rate Cuts
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at 3-month high as volatility gauge hits 2024 peak

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 7 points or 0.02%,
• Nasdaq closed up 33 points or 0.18%, (Closed at 18,573, New Historic high 18,621)
• S&P 500 closed down 3 points or 0.05%,
• Gold $2,762 up $22.90 or 0.84%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.68 or 2.38%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.208 up 0.026 points or 0.211%,
• USD index $104.11 up $0.09 or 0.09%,
• Bitcoin $67,486 down $1,755 or 0.26%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Investors were processing a recent bond market sell-off and incoming earnings reports. Doubts are growing about the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates aggressively or maintain current levels in November. The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized around 4.2% after surpassing this level on Monday for the first time since July. General Motors raised its guidance for the third time this year, with shares closing up over 10%. GE Aerospace and Verizon saw share price declines following mixed Q3 reports. Anticipation is building for Tesla’s earnings report, expected on Wednesday. Gold prices reached another record high as investors sought safety amid geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained slow in October 2024. The composite manufacturing index increased from −21 in September to −14 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −18 to −8, new orders rose from −23 to −17, and employment increased from −22 to −17. Being a negative number shows manufacturing remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Tightens Grip on Russia’s LNG Exports
• Oilfield Services Firms Sound the Alarm: Shale Spending Slows
• The Dark Side of AI-Powered Synthetic Biology
• Top U.S. LNG Exports: China’s Gas Demand Is Booming
• EU Imports of China’s EVs Surge Ahead of Tariffs
• U.S. Monitors Shadow Fleet Oil Transfers in Southeast Asia
• Paul Tudor Jones says market reckoning on spending is coming after election: ‘We are going to be broke’
• Philip Morris is a growth stock again as shares hit all-time high on Zyn demand boom
• Dow posts back-to-back loss Tuesday as Wall Street’s rally pauses: Live updates
• Peloton partners with Costco to sell Bike+ as it looks to reach young, wealthy customers
• IRS announces bigger estate and gift tax exemption for 2025
• Polymarket Is Singlehandedly Moving The Entire US Bond Market
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at roughly 3-month high as U.S. deficit concerns linger

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 344 points or 0.08%,
• Nasdaq closed up 50 points or 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed down 10 points or 0.18%,
• Gold $2,735 up $4.80 or 0.17%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.16 or 1.68%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.196% up 0.119 points or 0.953%,
• USD index $103.97 up $0.48 or 0.46%,
• Bitcoin $67,625 down $1,345 or 1.95%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The stock market closed mixed, with major indices showing varied results: The S&P 500 retreated from its recent all-time closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell also. Nvidia gained over 4%, closing at a fresh all-time high. Apple also reached a new closing record. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points to 4.18%, its highest level since July. Investors are preparing for a busy week of earnings reports, with over 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to release their results. So far, 80% of third-quarter updates from these companies have exceeded expectations. Key companies to watch this week include Tesla, General Motors, Coca-Cola, American Airlines, and UPS. Boeing faces a crucial day on Wednesday with both earnings release and a union vote on a tentative deal to end a five-week strike. Oil prices rose nearly 2%, with global benchmark Brent futures closing above $74 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude settling above $70.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in September 2024, following a 0.3% decline in August. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board explained:

Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists. Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.

The San Pedro Bay port complex, which includes both the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, handled approximately 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the United States in 2023. Their import data provides a window into imports into the US. In September 2024, imports were up 14% year-over-year while exports were down 9%. This was the largest September imports on record.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Gain 2% After China Boosts Stimulus Measures
• Gold Supply and Demand Imbalance Fuels Price Surge
• Russia’s Dark Fleet of Oil Tankers is Fueling India’s Refining Boom
• EU Hits 95% Full Natural Gas Storage Ahead of Winter
• U.S. Electricity Demand Jump Catches Power Utilities Unaware
• Iraq Stuck Between Israel and Iran As Tensions Rise
• Trump tax plans could exempt 93 million Americans from income taxes
• Qualcomm revamps mobile phone chips for AI, signs Samsung and others
• Seven Israelis Accused Of Giving Info To Iran On Targeted IDF Bases
• California Continues To See Negative Net Domestic Migration
• WNBA star Angel Reese says of her $73,439 salary: ‘Does that even pay my car note?’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 37 points or 0.09%, (Closed at 43,276, New Historic high 43,325)
• Nasdaq closed up 116 points or 0.63%,
• S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.40%, (Closed at 5,865, New Historic closing high)
• Gold $2,735 up $27.40 or 1.01%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $1.22 or 1.75%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.075 up 0.021 points or 0.176%,
• USD index $103.48 down $0.35 or 0.33%,
• Bitcoin $68,557 up $1,714 or 2.50%, (24 Hours)
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 585 Canada -2 to 217
  U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 585 with oil rigs up 1 to 482, gas rigs down 2 to 99 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks extended their winning streak on Friday, with major indexes hitting new records: The S&P 500 rose to a fresh all-time high, marking its 6th straight week of gains – the longest streak in 2024. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up 0.1% after setting a new closing high the previous day. Netflix’s strong earnings report helped drive the market higher: Netflix shares jumped around 11% after beating profit, revenue and subscriber growth expectations. This eased concerns about potential struggles for Big Tech companies this earnings season. For the week: The Dow rose 0.9%, the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, and the Nasdaq added 0.7%. Strong bank earnings earlier in the week also boosted market sentiment. In commodities, gold prices hit a new record above $2,700 per ounce, driven by geopolitical concerns and election uncertainty. The positive momentum sets the stage for more Big Tech earnings reports in the coming days, with investors looking to see if other major companies can match Netflix’s performance.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in September 2024 were 5.7% below September 2023. Privately-owned housing starts were 0.7% below September 2023. Privately-owned housing completions were 14.6% above September 2023. Construction continues to be one of the bright spots in today’s economy. The low permits and starts numbers are because the amount of homes started but not completed remains within historical metrics.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran Readies New Oil Outlet To Bypass the Strait of Hormuz
• U.S. Drilling Activity Stumbles As Prices Remain Volatile
• Oil Slides in the Absence of Israeli Retaliation Attack
• UAE Oil Sector Poised for 7.8% Growth in 2025
• Billion-Barrel Oil Discoveries Drive South American Energy Cooperation
• Stellantis to shutter and sell large testing facility amid cost-cutting efforts
• Port of Los Angeles freight rail delays reach two-year high, with holiday and everyday items piling up
• Dow, S&P 500 close at record highs and mark the year’s longest winning streak: Live updates
• U.S. deficit tops $1.8 trillion in 2024 as interest on debt surpasses trillion-dollar mark
• Netflix shares jump 11% after third-quarter earnings beat
• Bitcoin climbs 9% for its best week in more than a month: CNBC Crypto World
• Did Tesla Just Unveil Wireless EV Charging To Combat Cord Thefts?
• U.S. budget deficit in fiscal 2024 swells to third-highest level on record

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 161 points or 0.37%, (Closed at 43,239, New Historic high 43,290)
• Nasdaq closed up 7 points or 0.04%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1 point or 0.02%, (Closed at 5,841, New Historic high 5,878)
• Gold $2,708 up $16.20 or 0.61%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $0.37 or 0.50%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.096 down 0.080 points or 0.648%,
• USD index $103.80 up $0.21 or 0.20%,
• Bitcoin $66,916 down $843 or 1.26%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Tech stocks led US markets higher on Thursday, driven by positive news from the semiconductor sector and strong economic data [note that we believe the economic data was terrible]. TSMC’s (TSM) upbeat outlook eased concerns about AI chip demand, lifting semiconductor stocks: TSMC reported a 54% jump in quarterly profit, beating estimates. The company raised its 2024 revenue growth forecast, citing surging AI demand. TSMC’s shares rose about 10%, pushing its market value over $1 trillion. Other chip stocks like Arm, Broadcom, and Nvidia gained over 2%. Nvidia (NVDA) shares reached an all-time intraday high: The stock hit a new record of $140.89 during trading. Nvidia closed up 0.89% at $136.93. The company’s 52-week high is now $195.95, 47.7% above the current price. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new record close. The S&P 500 briefly touched an intraday record before closing slightly lower.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2024 is down 0.03% year-over-year (down 1.1% year-over-year inflation adjusted) if non-seasonally adjusted data is used. For whatever reason, the release says sales were up 1.7% year-over-year using seasonally adjusted data. When you calculate a year-over-year change, non-seasonally adjusted data is used because it is compared to the same month one year ago. This raises a flag that the seasonal adjustment being used is significantly wrong. Further food for thought is that U.S. Census is the only source that uses seasonally adjusted data to calculate year-over-year growth. The bottom line is that retail sales in the U.S. is far from excellent. The poor sales can be attributed to declines in car sales and gasoline.

Industrial production (IP) in September 2024 is down 0.6% year-over-year with its components manufacturing down 0.5% year-over-year, mining down 2.2%, and utilities up  0.6%. Interestingly, capacity utilization is up 1.2% year-over -year which implies that some manufacturing capacity has been destroyed. And like a broken record, manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.

The Philly Fed October 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey current general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose, with the latter two returning to positive territory this month. Surveys are a crude tool and the variation month-to-month pretty much warns the reader about accuracy issues. This particular survey tends to be more optimistic than the other manufacturing surveys. I maintain manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S. – and the Industrial Production release above should confirm this.

In the week ending October 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,250, an increase of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 231,000 to 231,500. This data is not recessionary and the rise in the unemployment numbers reflect the impact of the recent hurricanes.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia and India Forge Arctic Alliance
• Uzbekistan Faces Uphill Battle in WTO Bid
• How High Import Tariffs Could Have A Negative Impact on U.S. Oil
• UK Targets Russia’s Shadow Fleet With New Oil Tanker Sanctions
• Google CEO names new search and ads boss, slides predecessor to role of chief technologist
• Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed, Israeli foreign minister says
• Historic bitcoin theft tied to Connecticut kidnapping, luxury cars, $500K bar bills
• Retail sales rose 0.4% in September, better than expected; jobless claims dip
• The NFL is chasing a new audience to build on its explosive ratings
• Nvidia’s New Open-Source AI Model Beats GPT-4o On Benchmarks
• Chinese Stocks Tumble After Latest Round Of Property Stimulus Is A Dud
• Oil prices rise as U.S. supply posts a surprise decline, but trend ‘favors the bears’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 337 points or 0.79%,
• Nasdaq closed up 51 points or 0.28%,
• S&P 500 closed up 27 points or 0.47%,
• Gold $2,691 up $11.50 or 0.43%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.08 or 0.11%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.014 up 0.024 points or 0.191%,
• USD index $103.55 up $0.29 or 0.28%,
• Bitcoin $67,744 up $833 or 1.23%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks rebounded on Wednesday, moving closer to record highs as investors analyzed earnings reports from Morgan Stanley and other companies. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. The S&P 500 ended just short of its own record high. This rebound came after Tuesday’s pullback from all-time highs, which was triggered by ASML’s reduced sales forecast for 2025, affecting confidence in artificial intelligence chip stocks. Morgan Stanley’s quarterly report showed positive signs of a Wall Street comeback, with profits increasing significantly compared to the previous year. The bank’s shares rose by nearly 7% following the earnings release. After Tuesday’s decline, chip stocks bounced back, led by Nvidia with a 3.5% increase. While Morgan Stanley’s results were positive, disappointing earnings from companies like ASML, UnitedHealth Group, and LVMH have kept investors cautious about potential weaknesses in the market. Gold rallied toward a record high, influenced by uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential race. Bitcoin rose reaching its highest level since late July.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The import price index declined 0.1% year-over-year while the export price index declined 2.1% year-over-year. On the surface, it looks like import prices are declining but the issue is fuel prices which we know can rise like a rocket with almost any international incident. When you remove fuel from the index (dark line on the graph below), import prices have increased by 1.8% and continues on a rising trend line. There are many upward pressures on inflation in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• DoE Unleashes $900M in Funding for Small Nuclear Reactors
• U.S. Bolsters Israel’s Defense with THAAD Deployment
• Google’s Nuclear Power Play
• Nigeria Fuel Truck Explosion Kills More Than 140
• Oil and Gas Industry Faces Setback in Flaring Reduction Efforts
• Iran Believes an Israeli Attack on Its Nuclear Sites Remains Improbable
• Dow climbs 300 points to another record close on Wednesday: Live updates
• Morgan Stanley shares pop 7% after beating estimates for third-quarter profit and revenue
• RTX subsidiary Raytheon to pay more than $950 million to settle foreign bribery, export control fraud probes
• Bitcoin tests $68,000, its highest level since July: CNBC Crypto World
• Surprise fall in inflation paves way for interest rate cuts
• ETFs that buy Chinese stocks struggle lately amid ‘lost faith’ in China stimulus

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 325 points or 0.75%, (Closed at 43,740, New Historic high 43,278)
• Nasdaq closed down 187 points or 1.01%, (Closed at 18,316, New Historic high 18,564)
• S&P 500 closed down 45 points or 0.76%,
• Gold $2,679 up $12.80 or 0.48%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $2.88 or 3.91%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.036 up 0.037 points or 0.305%,
• USD index $103.24 down $0.06 or 0.06%,
• Bitcoin $66,971 up $1,038 or 1.55%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, largely influenced by disappointing earnings from ASML Holding, which released its results a day early due to an error. This unexpected announcement led to a significant drop in ASML’s shares, which fell over 15%, impacting the broader semiconductor sector. Nvidia and AMD also experienced declines of approximately 5% each as investors reacted to the news. The Dow Jones Industrial Average decrease was primarily driven down by UnitedHealth Group, whose shares fell around 8% after missing profit guidance for 2025. In contrast, some companies reported strong earnings. Goldman Sachs saw a 45% profit surge, while Bank of America beat earnings expectations, indicating resilience in the banking sector amid a challenging market environment. Additionally, energy prices fell sharply, with oil dropping about 4% following reports that Israel might hold back on military actions against Iran, contributing to concerns over supply dynamics in the oil market.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Business activity contracted modestly in New York Fed Empire State Manufacturing Survey in October 2024. After climbing into positive territory last month, the headline general business conditions index retreated twenty-three points to -11.9. New orders fell, and shipments edged lower. My position remains that manufacturing is in a recession in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• US Oil Producers Rush to Hedge
• Oil, Gas Companies Set To Spend More in 2025
• AI Chip Sales to Middle East Under Scrutiny
• Israel Walks Back from Potential Oil, Nuclear Facility Attacks
• BMW Says EU Ban on Gasoline Cars from 2035 Is “No Longer Realistic”
• Oil Prices Tumble as Demand Concerns Take Center Stage
• IEA Sees “Sizeable Surplus” in Oil Market as Demand Growth Slows
• Dow closes 300 points lower, retreating from record; Nvidia drags down Nasdaq: Live updates
• United Airlines plans $1.5 billion share buyback, forecasts fourth-quarter earnings above estimates
• Walgreens says it will close 1,200 stores by 2027, as earnings top estimates
• Bank of America tops estimates on better-than-expected trading revenue
• Healthy Returns: Covering weight loss drugs could cost Medicare $35 billion through 2034
• Lufthansa hit with record penalty after barring Jewish passengers
• The bond market may be at risk from inflationary forces beyond the Fed’s control
• 10-, 30-year U.S. government debt rallies for second day on lower oil and weak manufacturing reading

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 201 points or 0.47%, (Closed at 43,065, New Historic high 43,139)
• Nasdaq closed up 160 points or 0.87%, (Closed at 18,503, New Historic high 18,548)
• S&P 500 closed up 45 points or 0.77%, (Closed at 5,860, New Historic high 5,871)
• Gold $2,669 down $7.40 or 0.27%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $1.63 or 2.17%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.096 up 0.002 points or 0.002%,
• USD index $103.22 up $0.33 or 0.32%,
• Bitcoin $65,920 up $3,428 or 5.20%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, with major indexes reaching record highs as Nvidia led a broad market rally that extended to cryptocurrencies as well. Technology stocks were at the forefront of the gains, with Nvidia climbing nearly 3% to close at a new all-time high above $138 per share. Other semiconductor stocks like ASML, Arm Holdings, and Applied Materials also saw significant increases. In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin surged over 5% in 24 hours to exceed $65,700 per coin, while Ethereum rallied nearly 8%. The positive momentum comes as the third quarter earnings season kicks off, with major banks having reported last week and more financial institutions set to release results in the coming days. Investors are closely watching these earnings reports as they are seen as crucial for sustaining the stock market rally. Meanwhile, uncertainty remains regarding potential Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with recent economic data presenting a mixed picture. Retail sales data later in the week is expected to provide further insights into the state of the economy.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

none today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• UK Government “Absolutely Ready to Engage” With Musk
• WTI Sheds Over 2% On Weak Economic Data From China
• Nigerian Producer Resumes Production Despite Rampant Oil Theft
• China War Games Near Taiwan Ignite Another Geopolitical Flashpoint
• Dimon Issues Dire Warning About “Treacherous” Geopolitical Situation
• OPEC Slashes Oil Demand Growth Forecast Again
• Fed Governor Waller sees need for ‘more caution’ ahead when lowering interest rates
• Dow adds 200 points for first close above 43,000; S&P 500 hits another all-time high: Live updates
• Nvidia closes at record as AI chipmaker’s market cap tops $3.4 trillion
• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway hikes its SiriusXM stake to 32% after Liberty deal
• Boeing factory strike crosses 1-month mark as pressure mounts on new CEO
• Elon Musk is on track to become a trillionaire by 2027. Here’s why the rich keep getting richer
• Goldman Issues Grim Outlook For AutoZone Citing “Significant Exposure” To Struggling Working-Poor Consumers
• ‘DJT’ and these other Trump-linked stocks are rallying with just over three weeks until the election

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 410 points or 0.97%, (Closed at 42,864, New Historic high 42,900)
• Nasdaq closed up 61 points or 0.33%,
• S&P 500 closed up 35 points or 0.61%, (Closed at 5,815, New Historic high 5,822)
• Gold $2,673 up $34.20 or 1.28%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $0.27 or 0.34%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.088 up 0.006 points or 0.051%,
• USD index $102.94 down $0.05 or 0.05%,
• Bitcoin $62,955 up $2,696 or 4.49%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +1 to 586 Canada -4 to 219
  U.S. Rig Count is up 1 from last week to 586 with oil rigs up 2 to 481, gas rigs down 1 to 101 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 4.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

JPMorgan Chase and other major U.S. banks kicked off the Q3 2024 earnings season on Friday, helping push the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 to new record highs. The Dow rose to a new all-time high. The S&P 500 closed above 5,800 for the first time. All three major indexes finished the week with gains of over 1%. JPMorgan Chase reported better-than-expected Q3 results, with earnings of $4.37 per share beating estimates of $4.021. The bank’s revenue grew to $42.65 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $40.85 billion. JPMorgan’s shares rose nearly 5% following the earnings release. Wells Fargo also reported strong Q3 results, contributing to the positive sentiment in the financial sector. Investors are weighing recent economic data and its potential impact on Federal Reserve policy: A hot inflation print earlier in the week raised questions about the Fed’s next moves. Wholesale inflation remained unchanged, adding to the complex economic picture. The market is closely watching for signs of how the Fed’s potential rate cuts might affect bank lending margins and profits. Earnings season will continue next week with reports from major companies like Citigroup, United Airlines, ASML, Netflix, and American Express. Investors will be focusing on company forecasts and any early indications of improvement given the lower rate environment.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index (PPI) declined from 1.9% year-over-year to 1.8% year-over-year. The good news is that there is now disinflation in goods production but growing inflation in services. I cannot believe the spin on this data. Some say the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in hot but the PPI came in supporting the notion that inflation was moderating. Folks, the opposite is true. To get a handle of the underlying pressures on an inflation index is to remove food and energy. For the CPI,  if food and energy are excluded inflation remains little changed at 3.3% year-over-year. For the PPI, if food and energy are excluded inflation increased from 2.7% year-over-year to 2.8% (see red line on graph below). Everywhere I look – there are inflationary pressures present.

The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index decreased from 70.1 in September to 68.9 in October, a drop of 1.2 points. Despite the minor dip, consumer sentiment remains 8% higher than a year ago and nearly 40% above its lowest point in June 2022. This indicates a general trend of improvement in consumer outlook over the past year. Consumers continue to express frustration over high prices, even though inflation expectations have eased significantly since June 2022. The year-ahead inflation expectation rose slightly to 2.9% in October from 2.7% in September.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Oil Drilling Activity Inches Up
• Tripling Renewable Energy Capacity by 2030 Will Require $1.5 Trillion Per Year
• Will Tesla’s Cybercab Revolutionize Transportation? Analysts Weigh In
• Spanish Power Giant Iberdrola Doubles UK Investment to $31 Billion
• China Starts Tracking Ship Emissions Data
• Geopolitical Risk and Hurricane Milton Push Oil Prices Toward a Weekly Gain
• The Federal Reserve may have pretty much just hit its 2% inflation target
• Dow jumps 400 points to a record on Friday, S&P 500 closes above 5,800 for the first time: Live updates
• Jamie Dimon says geopolitical risks are surging: ‘Conditions are treacherous and getting worse’
• Stock market next week: Earnings season ramps up with more big bank results
• Bitcoin bounces back to $62,000 as economic outlook remains in focus: CNBC Crypto World
• Nation’s Largest Generic Drug Maker To Pay $450 Million To Resolve Kickback, Price-Fixing Claims
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at lowest level in a week after flat producer-price report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.