Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 144 points or 0.42%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.35%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.21%,
• Gold $2,020 down $36,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.44,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.517% up 0.066 points,
• USD $101.58 up $0.56,
• Bitcoin $30,347 down $5,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 748 Canada -16 to 111

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Advance Estimates of U.S. Retail and Food Services Sales for March 2023 show that sales were down 1.0 percent from the previous month, but up 2.9 percent from March 2022 – after inflation adjustment retail sales is down 0.3% year-over-year. It appears the consumer continues to marginally slow its purchases.

Industrial production rose 0.5 percent year-over-year in March 2023 (blue line in the graph below). Components manufacturing declined 0.9% year-over-year (red line on the graph below), mining output improved 5.4% percent year-over-year (orange line on the graph below), and utilities jumped to 4.2% percent year-over-year (green line on the graph below). Capacity utilization moved up to 79.8 percent in March, a rate that is 0.1 percentage points above its long-run (1972–2022) average. There is little evidence of a manufacturing resurgence.

In a bit of good news for consumers, U.S. import prices decreased 4.6% year-over-year in March 2023 (blue line on the graph below). Lower March prices for nonfuel industrial supplies and materials; consumer goods; foods, feeds, and beverages; capital goods; and automotive vehicles all contributed to the overall decrease in nonfuel import prices. Nonfuel import prices declined 1.5 percent from March 2022 to March 2023, the first 12-month drop since June 2020.  And export prices also declined to 4.8% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index for April 2023 is 65.2, down from 67.2 in March. This is the lowest level since August 2011. The index’s decline was driven by a drop in all three of its components: current conditions, expectations, and buying plans.

The current conditions index fell to 70.7 from 73.2 in March. This suggests that consumers are feeling less optimistic about the current state of the economy. The expectations index fell to 64.7 from 68.1 in March. This suggests that consumers are less optimistic about the future of the economy. The buying plans index fell to 52.9 from 56.0 in March. This suggests that consumers are less likely to make major purchases in the near future.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Sends Delegation To Saudi Arabia To Discuss Energy And Security
• U.S. Drilling Activity Slips Further
• Auto Manufacturers To Brace For Turmoil Amid Supply Chain Disruptions
• Oil Prices Rise As Traders Brush Off OPEC Demand Warnings
• Dow sheds more than 100 points Friday, but notches fourth straight positive week: Live updates
• Jamie Dimon issues warning on rates: ‘It will undress problems in the economy’
• Nvidia’s top A.I. chips are selling for more than $40,000 on eBay
• Recession Odds Jump As The Fed Crushes Consumers
• Market Extra: ‘Fed-is-going-to-stop-soon’ trade peters out in stocks, bonds amid prospect of at least one more rate hike
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks retreat from mid-February high as traders digest bank earnings, retail sales and Fed comments

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 384 points or 1.14%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.99%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.33%,
• Gold $2,055 up $29.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.99,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.449% up 0.028 points,
• USD $101.02 down $0.48,
• Bitcoin $30,355 up $543,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

One might think inflation is getting under control as the Producer Price Index for final demand declined to 2.7% for the 12 months that ended in March 2023 (blue line on the graph below). In March, two-thirds of the decline in the index for final demand can be attributed to energy. But even looking at final demand less foods, energy, and trade services fell from 4,5% to 3.6% year-over-year. The decline in the PPI-FD in February was likely due to a number of factors, including:

In the week ending April 8, unemployment insurance weekly initial claims 4-week moving average was 240,000, an increase of 2,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 237,750. This is the highest level for this average since November 20, 2021 when it was 249,250.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Indian Banks Fear Mess If Urals Passes $60 Price Cap
• Shifting Trade Flows Create Logistical Problems In Central Asia
• OPEC’s Crude Oil Production Falls In March
• Why Americans Aren’t Buying EVs
• Canada’s Biggest Bank Becomes The World’s Top Financier Of Fossil Fuels
• Stocks close higher Thursday, S&P 500 notches highest close since February: Live updates
• U.S. officials identify leaked classified documents suspect as 21-year-old Air National Guardsman
• A federal judge has blocked Biden’s clean water rule in 24 states
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Apple, Tesla, Netflix, Bed Bath & Beyond & more
• Anheuser-Busch Loses $6BN In Six Days After Trans Ad Campaign That Top Execs Never Approved
• Market Snapshot: S&P 500, Dow head for highest close in 2 months after another report of cooling inflation while investors await bank earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 38 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.85%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.41%,
• Gold $2,028 up $9.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $1.68,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.402% down 0.032 points,
• USD $101.56 down $0.64,
• Bitcoin $29,845 down $300,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.1% in March 2023 but over the last 12 months, the all items index increased by 5.0% (blue line on the graph below). The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase. This more than offset a decline in the energy index, which decreased 3.5% over the month as all major energy component indexes declined. The all items index less food and energy index rose 5.6% over the last 12 months (red line on the graph below). The Fed looks more at inflation excluding food and energy – so in their view, the rate of inflation has little changed since January 2022.

Today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes for their FOMC meeting ending on March 22, 2023. The minutes note that some members of the Committee were concerned that the war in Ukraine could lead to a further increase in inflation. However, the Committee ultimately decided that it was important to take action to combat inflation, even in the face of uncertainty about the war. The minutes also note that the Committee is closely monitoring the labor market. The minutes state that the labor market is “tight” and that there are “signs of wage pressures.” The Committee is concerned that wage pressures could lead to a further increase in inflation. Highlights:

… In assessing the economic outlook, participants noted that since they met in February, data on inflation, employment, and economic activity generally came in stronger than expected. They also noted, however, that the developments in the banking sector that had occurred late in the intermeeting period affected their views of the economic and policy outlook and the uncertainty surrounding that outlook. …

…Participants agreed that the actions taken so far by the Federal Reserve in coordination with other government agencies, as well as actions taken by foreign authorities to address banking and financial stresses outside the U.S., had helped calm conditions in the banking sector. Even with the actions, participants recognized that there was significant uncertainty as to how those conditions would evolve. Participants assessed that the developments so far would likely lead to some weakening of credit conditions, as some banks were likely to tighten lending standards amid rising funding costs and increased concerns about liquidity. Participants noted that it was too early to assess with confidence the magnitude of the effect of a credit tightening on economic activity and inflation, and that it was important to continue to closely monitor developments and update assessments of the actual and expected effects of credit tightening. …

… participants observed that wage growth appeared to be slowing gradually amid this apparent easing in labor demand and increase in labor supply. However, participants assessed that labor demand continued to substantially exceed labor supply, and several participants pointed out that wage growth was still well above the rates that would be consistent over the longer run with the 2 percent inflation objective, given current estimates of trend productivity growth. …

… Participants generally observed that the recent developments in the banking sector had further increased the already-high level of uncertainty associated with their outlooks for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation. Participants saw risks to economic activity as weighted to the downside. …

… In their consideration of appropriate monetary policy actions at this meeting, participants concurred that inflation remained well above the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent and that the recent data on inflation provided few signs that inflation pressures were abating at a pace sufficient to return inflation to 2 percent over time. Participants also noted that recent developments in the banking sector would likely result in tighter credit conditions for households and businesses and weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation, though the extent of these effects was highly uncertain. …

… due to the potential for banking-sector developments to tighten financial conditions and to weigh on economic activity and inflation, they judged it prudent to increase the target range by a smaller increment at this meeting.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. To Refill SPR This Year If Advantageous
• World’s Largest Uranium Miner Ramps Up Output To Sell To New Customers
• Oil Prices Gain 2% As Inflation Data Remains Hot
• Clean Energy Sources Produced 39% Of Global Electricity In 2022
• Fed expects banking crisis to cause a recession this year, minutes show
• Stocks fall as fear of recession weighs on investors, Dow snaps four-day win streak: Live updates
• Warren Buffett says we’re not through with bank failures
• FOMC Minutes Show Staff Expect ‘Mild Recession’, All Members Backed Continued QT, 25bps Hike
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks erase gains in final hour of trade after minutes show Fed officials expect banking crisis to cause economic slowdown this year
• Bond Report: Two- and 10-year Treasury yields drop by most in a week after Fed minutes, March inflation report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 98 points or 0.29%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.43%,
• S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
• Gold $2,019 up $15.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $1.67,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.430% up 0.013 points,
• USD $102.15 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $30,159 up $966,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.8 points in March to 90.1, marking the 15^th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Twenty-four percent of owners reported inflation as their single most important business problem, down four points from last month. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months remain at a net negative 47%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Small business owners are cynical about future economic conditions. Hiring plans fell to their lowest level since May 2020, but strong consumer spending has kept Main Street alive and supported strong labor demand.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• 5 Trends Driving The Oil And Gas Industry In 2023
• Oil Prices Return To Recent Highs
• Russia’s Current Account Surplus Dwindles As Sanctions Hit
• Inflation Reduction Act Leads To Record Spending On New U.S. Factories
• Oil Prices Rangebound As Bulls And Bears Battle For Dominance
• S&P 500 closes little changed Tuesday as traders await March inflation report: Live updates
• Banks in ‘more precarious situation’ creating risks for global growth, IMF chief economist warns
• Russia-Ukraine war live: UN says more than 8,400 killed in Ukraine since war’s start; more revelations emerge from leaked Pentagon documents
• Bitcoin tops $30,000 for the first time since June, and SEC ups crypto unit hiring: CNBC Crypto World
• Bond Report: 2- and 10-year Treasury yields rise for fourth straight session ahead of U.S. inflation report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 101 points or 0.30%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.10%,
• Gold $2,007 down $19.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.83,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.421% up 0.038 points,
• USD $102.55 up $0.46,
• Bitcoin $29,229 up $1058.46,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

February 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers are up 1.3% from the revised February 2022 level (green line on the graph below) – which is a decline of 3.5% if one inflation adjusts (red line on the graph below). Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 12.0% from the revised February 2022 level. The February inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.37 (blue line on the graph below) – the February 2022 ratio was 1.24. The bottom is this sector’s sales are slowing.

Inflation expectations increased at the one- and three-year-ahead horizons to 4.7 percent and 2.8 percent, respectively, but declined to 2.5 percent at the five-year-ahead horizon, according to the March 2023 Survey of Consumer Expectations. Credit access perceptions deteriorated, with the share of households reporting that it is harder to obtain credit than one year ago rising and reaching a series high.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Prices At The Pump Rise For Second Straight Week
• Pioneer Surges 6% After Informal Exxon Talks
• China Sees EV Sales Slumping To 8 Million In 2023
• Oil Prices Head Lower In Calmer Trade
• S&P 500 ends Monday slightly higher as investors anticipate key inflation data: Live updates
• DOJ asks appeals court to keep abortion pill mifepristone on market in case that may end up at Supreme Court
• Bernstein says if you like gold, you should like bitcoin even more
• Sen. Lindsey Graham Says He Would Support Sending American Troops To Taiwan
• Peter Schiff: This Banking Crisis Is the Cusp Of A Much Worse Financial Crisis
• Bond Report: 3-month T-bill rate leads advance in yields ahead of Wednesday’s CPI data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The NYSE closed for Good Friday.

• Gold $2,024 down $11.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.15,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.413% up 0.123 points,
• USD $102.11 up $0.28,
• Bitcoin $27,918 down $126.70,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 236,000 in March, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.5%. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality, government, professional and business services, and healthcare.  Always love the disconnect between the surveys as the household survey shows a gain of 577,000 jobs (versus the 236,000 in the headline establishment survey). There are warning signs in the establishment data with the goods-producing sectors declining by 7,000 – combine this with falling imports and yah gotta think the consumer is hunkering down. And health care and government provided nearly 100,000 jobs in this employment report. All in all, employment is excellent looking at the household survey, and shaky looking at the establishment survey.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• South Korea Pledges $5 Billion In Support For Battery Makers In The U.S.
• Commercial Drones Poised To Disrupt Global Supply Chains
• U.S. Short-Term Steel Outlook Remains Bullish
• Offshore Oil Workers To Stage Biggest Strike In A Generation
• Tesla: A Sustainable Energy Economy Is Cheaper Than Sticking To Fossil Fuels
• Job growth totals 236,000 in March, near expectations as hiring pace slows
• Why it’s possible to have too much employment in the U.S.
• US job creation slows but unemployment stays low
• Once US goes into recession, EMs will do well: Andrew Holland

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 3 points or 0.01%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.76%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.36%,
• Gold $2,023 down $12.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.06,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.298% up 0.11 points,
• USD $101.91 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $28,017 down $150,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 751 Canada -12 to 127

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

U.S.-based employers announced 89,703 cuts in March, up 15% from the 77,770 announced in February. It is up 319% from the 21,387 cuts announced in the same month in 2022. March’s total marks the third time this year that cuts were higher than the corresponding month a year earlier. Employers announced 270,416 cuts in the first quarter, a 396% increase from the 55,696 cuts announced in the same period one year prior. It is the highest first-quarter total since 2020, when 346,683 cuts were announced from January to March. It is the highest quarterly total since the third quarter of 2020 when 497,215 cuts were recorded.

In the week ending April 1, unemployment insurance initial claims‘ 4-week moving average was 237,750, a decrease of 4,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 43,750 from 198,250 to 242,000. !!! This massive change is explained that they have significantly revised their methodology for seasonal adjusting. Their description of the changes is convoluted but now there is a definite trend of growing unemployment.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Can Renewable Energy Save America’s Coal Communities?
• Tokyo Scientists Unveil Solid-State Battery Breakthrough
• North Sea Oil Production Could Fall By 80% By 2030
• Vogtle Nuclear Unit Begins Producing Power
• Drilling Activity Continues To Fall In The U.S.
• Tesla’s Pivot Away From Rare Earths Could Push Other Automakers To Follow Suit
• S&P 500 ends Thursday higher, but suffers its first down week in four: Live updates
• Key inflation data and earnings reports loom as labor market signals a slowing U.S. economy
• Bed Bath & Beyond proposes reverse stock split as it struggles to avoid bankruptcy
• Earnings Outlook: Banks on the line for deposit flows and margin pressure in Q1 updates as they reel from banking crisis

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 80 points or 0.24%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.07%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.25%,
• Gold $2037 down $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.26,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.302% down 0.034 points,
• USD index $101.92 up $0.34,
• Bitcoin $28,244 up $65

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Private employers added 145,000 jobs in March (blue line on the graph below) according to the ADP employment report. Over the last year, employment growth has been moderating. According to Nela Richardson, the chief economist at ADP:

Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing. Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down

Both exports and imports of goods and services declined in February 2023 – but imports declined more than exports causing an increase in the trade deficit. Over the last 12 months, imports (which are an indicator of US economic growth) have been slowing.

The ISM Services PMI fell to 51.2 in March of 2023 from 55.1 in February and well below forecasts of 54.5. The reading pointed to the slowest growth in the services sector in three months, as demand and employment cooled while capacity and logistics improved and price pressures eased to the lowest since September 2020. This decline is considered as this index is showing services are nearing the no-growth line – and the services PMI correlates well with past US recessions.

source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China Considers Prohibiting Exports Of Rare Earth Magnet Technology To The U.S.
• Oil Markets Are Misinterpreting The OPEC+ Cut
• Small Modular Reactors Are Gaining Ground
• White House Will Work With All Oil Producers To Ensure Low Prices
• Russian Urals Breaks Past $60 Price Cap Thanks To OPEC+
• Fitch Raises Saudi Arabia’s Credit Rating Due To “Formidable” Foreign Reserves
• Inflation’s inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy
• Nasdaq falls 1% for three-day losing streak after weak economic data: Live updates
• Google reveals its newest A.I. supercomputer, says it beats Nvidia
• U.S. Dollar “Fear Mongers” Only Need To Be Right Once

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 199 points or 0.59%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.52%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.58%,
• Gold $2,040 up $39.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.352% down 0.08 points,
• USD $101.56 down $0.53,
• Bitcoin $28,195 up $104,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The number of job openings decreased to 9.9 million on the last business day of February 2023. The graph below compares job openings (red line) against changes in employment (blue line) – basically as job openings go down employment gains go down. Over the month,  the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.2 million and 5.8 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) edged up, while layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) decreased.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Ford Gets Outsold By GM In EV Market As The Two Duke It Out For No. 2 Spot
• U.S. Wheat Production Problems Could Worsen Food Inflation
• Tesla Continues To Slide Despite Jump In Chinese Sales
• West Ready To Support Ukraine For As Long As It Takes, Says NATO Chief
• Japan Is Betting Big On Hydrogen
• EIA: U.S. Oil And Liquids Production Expected To Rise By 10% Through 2050
• Job openings tumbled below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years
• Stocks close lower Tuesday, Dow and S&P 500 snap four-day win streaks as economic worries loom: Live updates
• Oppenheimer says a rally is coming for renewable stocks, gives its top picks
• Jamie Dimon says the banking crisis is not over and will cause ‘repercussions for years to come’
• Dogecoin spikes 25% after Twitter logo swap, and bitcoin miners seek 2023 comeback: CNBC Crypto World
• Futures Movers: U.S. oil prices settle at their highest since January in wake of surprise OPEC+ production cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 327 points or 0.98%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.37%,
• Gold $2,002 up $16.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $4.74,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.411% down 0.077 points,
• USD $102.02 down $0.49,
• Bitcoin $28,047 up $60,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The ISM Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.3 in March of 2023, the lowest since May of 2020, and compared to 47.7 in February and a consensus of 47.5 implying that rising interest rates and growing recession fears are starting to weigh on businesses. The reading pointed to a fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as companies continue to slow outputs to better match the demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period.

source: trading economics

Construction spending during February 2023 was up 5.2% from February 2022. Unfortunately, after adjusting for inflation, construction spending is DOWN 9.5% year-over-year and is continuing to slow.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Are “Begging For Supply Cuts”
• Renewables Projected To Overtake Coal Worldwide By 2027
• Traders Predict 25-Point Rate Hike After OPEC+ Surprise Oil Output Cut
• Tesla Smashes Q1 Delivery Record Thanks To Price Cuts
• Citi Doesn’t See $100 Oil Despite Shock OPEC+ Cuts
• Google to cut down on employee laptops, services and staplers for ‘multi-year’ savings
• Dow closes 300 points higher to begin April’s trading, S&P 500 notches fourth day of gains: Live updates
• JPMorgan says more banks could run out of reserves like SVB if the pace of this deposit flight continues
• U.S. passport delays may be four months long — and could get worse. Here’s what to know
• Home prices suddenly jump after several months of declines
• Oil prices surge after a surprise move to cut output
• Metals Stocks: Gold settles above $2,000 as the dollar retreats after OPEC+ surprise output cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.