Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 80 points or 0.24%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.07%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.25%,
• Gold $2037 down $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.26,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.302% down 0.034 points,
• USD index $101.92 up $0.34,
• Bitcoin $28,244 up $65

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Private employers added 145,000 jobs in March (blue line on the graph below) according to the ADP employment report. Over the last year, employment growth has been moderating. According to Nela Richardson, the chief economist at ADP:

Our March payroll data is one of several signals that the economy is slowing. Employers are pulling back from a year of strong hiring and pay growth, after a three-month plateau, is inching down

Both exports and imports of goods and services declined in February 2023 – but imports declined more than exports causing an increase in the trade deficit. Over the last 12 months, imports (which are an indicator of US economic growth) have been slowing.

The ISM Services PMI fell to 51.2 in March of 2023 from 55.1 in February and well below forecasts of 54.5. The reading pointed to the slowest growth in the services sector in three months, as demand and employment cooled while capacity and logistics improved and price pressures eased to the lowest since September 2020. This decline is considered as this index is showing services are nearing the no-growth line – and the services PMI correlates well with past US recessions.

source: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-manufacturing-pmi

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China Considers Prohibiting Exports Of Rare Earth Magnet Technology To The U.S.
• Oil Markets Are Misinterpreting The OPEC+ Cut
• Small Modular Reactors Are Gaining Ground
• White House Will Work With All Oil Producers To Ensure Low Prices
• Russian Urals Breaks Past $60 Price Cap Thanks To OPEC+
• Fitch Raises Saudi Arabia’s Credit Rating Due To “Formidable” Foreign Reserves
• Inflation’s inventory gluts are here to stay and will hit the bottom line in weaker economy
• Nasdaq falls 1% for three-day losing streak after weak economic data: Live updates
• Google reveals its newest A.I. supercomputer, says it beats Nvidia
• U.S. Dollar “Fear Mongers” Only Need To Be Right Once

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 199 points or 0.59%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.52%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.58%,
• Gold $2,040 up $39.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 down $0.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.352% down 0.08 points,
• USD $101.56 down $0.53,
• Bitcoin $28,195 up $104,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The number of job openings decreased to 9.9 million on the last business day of February 2023. The graph below compares job openings (red line) against changes in employment (blue line) – basically as job openings go down employment gains go down. Over the month,  the number of hires and total separations changed little at 6.2 million and 5.8 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.0 million) edged up, while layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) decreased.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Ford Gets Outsold By GM In EV Market As The Two Duke It Out For No. 2 Spot
• U.S. Wheat Production Problems Could Worsen Food Inflation
• Tesla Continues To Slide Despite Jump In Chinese Sales
• West Ready To Support Ukraine For As Long As It Takes, Says NATO Chief
• Japan Is Betting Big On Hydrogen
• EIA: U.S. Oil And Liquids Production Expected To Rise By 10% Through 2050
• Job openings tumbled below 10 million in February for the first time in nearly two years
• Stocks close lower Tuesday, Dow and S&P 500 snap four-day win streaks as economic worries loom: Live updates
• Oppenheimer says a rally is coming for renewable stocks, gives its top picks
• Jamie Dimon says the banking crisis is not over and will cause ‘repercussions for years to come’
• Dogecoin spikes 25% after Twitter logo swap, and bitcoin miners seek 2023 comeback: CNBC Crypto World
• Futures Movers: U.S. oil prices settle at their highest since January in wake of surprise OPEC+ production cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 327 points or 0.98%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.37%,
• Gold $2,002 up $16.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $4.74,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.411% down 0.077 points,
• USD $102.02 down $0.49,
• Bitcoin $28,047 up $60,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The ISM Manufacturing PMI decreased to 46.3 in March of 2023, the lowest since May of 2020, and compared to 47.7 in February and a consensus of 47.5 implying that rising interest rates and growing recession fears are starting to weigh on businesses. The reading pointed to a fifth straight month of contraction in factory activity, as companies continue to slow outputs to better match the demand for the first half of 2023 and prepare for growth in the late summer/early fall period.

source: trading economics

Construction spending during February 2023 was up 5.2% from February 2022. Unfortunately, after adjusting for inflation, construction spending is DOWN 9.5% year-over-year and is continuing to slow.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Are “Begging For Supply Cuts”
• Renewables Projected To Overtake Coal Worldwide By 2027
• Traders Predict 25-Point Rate Hike After OPEC+ Surprise Oil Output Cut
• Tesla Smashes Q1 Delivery Record Thanks To Price Cuts
• Citi Doesn’t See $100 Oil Despite Shock OPEC+ Cuts
• Google to cut down on employee laptops, services and staplers for ‘multi-year’ savings
• Dow closes 300 points higher to begin April’s trading, S&P 500 notches fourth day of gains: Live updates
• JPMorgan says more banks could run out of reserves like SVB if the pace of this deposit flight continues
• U.S. passport delays may be four months long — and could get worse. Here’s what to know
• Home prices suddenly jump after several months of declines
• Oil prices surge after a surprise move to cut output
• Metals Stocks: Gold settles above $2,000 as the dollar retreats after OPEC+ surprise output cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 415 points or 1.26%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.74%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.44%,
• Gold $1,987 down $10.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.20,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.481% down 0.07 points,
• USD $102.59 up $0.44,
• Bitcoin $28,417 up $450,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. down 3 to to 755 rigs

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Personal income increased $72.9 billion (0.3%) in February 2023, according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $89.9 billion (0.5%) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by $27.9 billion (0.2%). The PCE price index increased 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3%. But the real (inflation-adjusted) year-over-year growth is what is important – personal income is up 3.3% (blue line on the graph below), consumption expenditures up 2.5% (red line on the graph below), price index (inflation) is up 5.0% (green line on the graph below), and price index (excluding food and energy) up 4.6% (purple line on the graph below). At the current rate of moderation of inflation – it will be several years for inflation to fall near 2%. There is NO SIGN of a recession in this data.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, inched up 0.2 index points to 43.8 in March. It was the first increase since December. The increase was unexpected. Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal forecast a 43 reading. This is the seventh straight reading below the 50 threshold that indicates activity is contracting.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Time To Buy The Oil Dip: Goldman Sachs
• Nickel Buyers On Edge As Another LME Scandal Unfolds
• Peter Schiff: We Are On The Cusp Of Another Financial Crisis
• U.S. Drilling Activity Slips Following Price Slump
• Supply Outage Fuels Oil Price Recovery
• Here’s what went wrong with Virgin Orbit
• Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% in February, less than expected
• Trump campaign uses newly restored Facebook page to fundraise off of indictment
• Stocks could be shaky in the week ahead as sigh-of-relief rally runs its course
• Reasons To Be Cheerful (and Drear-full) About Stocks
• Simon Black: I Love How Everyone Pretends The Bank Crisis Is Over…
• In One Chart: Stocks are headed for gains in March. This chart shows why retirement should still be a worry for investors.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 141 points or 0.43%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.73%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.57%,
• Gold $2,000 up $15.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $1.23,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.554% down 0.012 points,
• USD $102.16 down $0.48,
• Bitcoin $27,956 down $412,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The third estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.6% (relative to 3Q2022) in the fourth quarter of 2022. In the third quarter, real GDP increased by 3.2% which implies the economy slowed. My preferred method of analyzing GDP shows real GDP only improved by 0.9% from the quarter one year ago. In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.7%. This third estimate primarily reflected downward revisions to exports and consumer spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

The weekly unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 198,250 – an increase of 2,000 from the previous week.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Why U.S. Refiners Are Ramping Up Biofuel Production
• WTI Crude Gains As Banking Fears Ease, Kurdish Oil Exports Remain Suspended
• Researchers Create Catalyst That Cleans Dirty Water And Produces Hydrogen
• Shell Cancels Singapore Aviation Biofuel Project
• The Coal Price Crash Isn’t Over Yet
• Stocks close higher a second-straight day, Dow jumps more than 100 points: Live updates
• More home sellers are sitting out of the spring housing market
• Disney blocks Ron DeSantis’ Florida power play with a royal family clause
• Jobless claims edge up to 198,000, higher than expected
• 4 red flags for an IRS tax audit — including what one tax pro calls a ‘dead giveaway’
• ETF Wrap: Commercial real-estate worries weigh down property ETFs — but a ‘durable’ corner holds up relatively well

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 323 points or 1.00%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.79%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.42%,
• Gold $1982 down $8.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.24,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.572% up 0.004 points,
• USD $102.69 up $0.26,
• Bitcoin $28,412 up $1,018,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged 49% from 112 in January to 167 last month. February’s total is up 11% from the 151 CEOs who left their posts in the same month one year prior. February’s total is the highest monthly total since 219 CEOs left their posts in January 2020. So far this year, 279 CEOs have left their posts, virtually matching the 276 that occurred in the first two months of 2022. Andrew Challenger, leadership expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

The jump in CEO exits in February suggests companies are gearing up for a lot of change in the coming months.

Pending home sales in the United States decreased 21.1% year-over-year in February 2023, following a 24.1% fall in January, and marking a 21st straight month of declines.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Warning: A Fed Pivot Is Not As Bullish As You Think
• Copper Shortage Looms, But Will It Translate To Higher Prices?
• Oil Rallies On Large Crude Draw
• Russian Oil Giant Signs New Deal To Boost Crude Supply To India
• Stocks close higher on Wednesday as tech names lead a turnaround, Dow adds 300 points: Live updates
• Bitcoin reclaims $28,000, and FDIC gives deadline for Signature’s crypto clients: CNBC Crypto World
• The Implausibility Of A Net Zero Carbon Energy Future Is Now Obvious
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks extend rally in final hour of trade, powered by tech stocks and calm in banking sector
• Futures Movers: Oil ends lower after tapping highest intraday price in 2 weeks

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 38 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.44%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $1975 up $21.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.59,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.554% up 0.026 points,
• USD $102.41 down $0.45,
• Bitcoin $27,468 up $418,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices show that the trend of declining home price gains continued across the United States with declining prices reported in the San Francisco, San Diego, Portland, and Seattle markets.  YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller’s 20-City Composite posted a 2.5% year-over-year gain, down from 4.6% in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp stated:

Following the housing market freefall at the end of the year, the decline in mortgage rates in December and early January spurred some much-needed optimism for the housing market. In response to lower rates, home sales posted strong monthly gains in January and February, suggesting that pent-up buyer demand is eagerly responding to mortgage rate movements. Given the mortgage investor market response since Fed’s March meeting, home price growth may surprise to the upside if mortgage rates remain favorable, especially in light of continued supply constraints. But, ongoing volatility in mortgage rates and fallout from the banking crisis could put a damper on spring home-buying season, particularly if credit tightening impacts mortgage availability and consumer confidence takes another hit. In January, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index posted a 3.8% year-over-year increase, marking the ninth straight month of decelerating annual home price gains. With a sharp 17 percent point decline in home price growth over the year, January’s annual gain was the slowest since the COVID pandemic started in the winter of 2019.

https://econcurrents.com/images/2023/03/case.png

https://econcurrents.com/images/2023/03/case.png

https://econcurrents.com/images/2023/03/case.png

Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over. While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated—at 6.3 percent. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.

The 2023 SCE Housing Survey, which is part of the broader Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and provides information on consumers’ housing-related experiences and expectations. The results show that households expect home prices to increase over the coming twelve months at the slowest pace since the survey began in 2014. In contrast, home price expectations over the next five years increased relative to last year’s survey. Expectations about the one-year-ahead change in the cost of rent were considerably higher than home price expectations but declined relative to last year’s series high. Homeowners’ expectations about the likelihood of refinancing their mortgage over the next 12 months fell sharply to a new series low. The probability of buying a home conditional on a move over the next three years rose overall, driven by higher expectations among current owners. A large majority of households continue to view housing as a good financial investment, although the share characterizing housing as a “somewhat good” or “very good” investment declined slightly from February 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Why The Fed Could Cut Interest Rates As Early As June
• Power Shortages Disrupt Aluminum Production In South China
• Shell: All Options On The Table For New Energy Strategy
• IRENA: $5 Trillion Per Year Needed To Meet Climate Goals
• Oil Prices Recover As Bullish Sentiment Returns
• Pirates Board Oil Tanker Offshore West Africa
• SVB customers tried to withdraw nearly all the bank’s deposits over two days, Fed’s Barr testifies
• Stocks close lower, Nasdaq drops a second day as higher yields press tech names: Live updates
• DOJ alleges SBF paid $40 million in bribe to China, and Binance responds to CFTC suit: CNBC Crypto World
• Home prices cool in January, even falling in some cities, S&P Case-Shiller says
• Rent growth drops back to pre-pandemic levels, but some markets are falling much harder
• Futures Movers: Oil ends at a more than a 2-week high as natural-gas futures mark the lowest finish in over 2 years

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 195 points or 0.60%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.47%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.19%,
• Gold $1958 down $25.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $3.75,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.541% up 0.163 points,
• USD $102.85 down $0.26,
• Bitcoin $27,009 down $858

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Wind Industry To Install Record New Capacity By 2027
• $14 Billion In Oil And Gas Deal Signed This Week, And It’s Only Monday
• Is It Time To Refill The Strategic Petroleum Reserve?
• Drop In U.S. Gasoline Prices Likely To Be Temporary
• Disney layoffs will begin this week, CEO Bob Iger says in memo
• Dow closes nearly 200 points higher, S&P 500 notches third straight advance as bank shares jump: Live updates
• Chart analysts see danger ahead as tech comeback starts to lose steam
• Bitcoin falls below $27,000, and CFTC charges Binance for violating trading rules: CNBC Crypto World
• Chipotle to pay ex-employees $240,000 after closing Maine location that tried to unionize
• Bank Crisis’ Remedy Threatens To Put More Pressure On The Dollar
• Tech View: Nifty charts hint at indecisiveness. What should traders do Tuesday
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks mostly higher as bank sector stress wanes
• Biden calls for Congress to pass assault-weapons ban after Nashville school shooting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 132 points or 0.41%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.31%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.56%,
• Gold $1980 down $15.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.79,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.376% down 0.028 points,
• USD index $103.11 up $0.58,
• Bitcoin $27,867 down $485,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. up 4 to 758 rigs

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The February 2023 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® showed that the manufacturing sector contracted for the third consecutive month, with the Manufacturing PMI® improving to 47.7% from 47.4% in January. The five subindexes that directly factor into the Manufacturing PMI® were:

• Production: 47.3%
• New Orders: 47.0%
• Supplier Deliveries: 47.6%
• Inventories: 43.1%
• Prices: 51.3%

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Is A Global Tin Shortage Looming?
• Protests In France Force Exxon To Shut Port Jerome Refinery
• Latin America’s Bid To Challenge China’s Dominance In The Lithium Market
• Spain Calls On Importers Not To Sign New LNG Deals With Russia
• Why The Price Of Premium Gasoline Is Rising
• Deutsche Bank is not the next Credit Suisse, analysts say as panic spreads
• Wyoming abortion ban blocked due to Obamacare-era amendment
• A nuclear plant that leaked 400,000 gallons of radioactive water will be shut down after second incident
• Hundreds Of Funds On Brink Of Losing ESG Ratings
• The Fed Is Pushing The Accelerator & The Brake Pedals At The Same Time

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 75 points or 0.23%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.01%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.30%,
• Gold $2000 up $50.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $1.57,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.402% down 0.098 points,
• USD $102.54 up $0.19,
• Bitcoin $28,226 – 24H Change up $1,209.30 – Session Low $26,834

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2023 were 19.0% below February 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2023 was $438,200. The average sales price was $498,700. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 436,000. This represents a supply of 8.2 months at the current sales rate.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average improved to -0.13 in February 2023 from -0.27 in January. This indicates that economic activity was below trend in February. The CFNAI is a monthly index that measures economic activity and related inflationary pressure. The index is constructed using data from 85 indicators, including production, income, employment, housing, sales, orders, and inventories. IMO this is the best coincident indicator of the US economy. The 3-month moving average is used for economic trends as it is less volatile than the monthly average. This index is now suggesting that the economy is expanding below the historical trend rate of growth – but well away from recession territory.

In the week ending March 18, the unemployment insurance initial claims 4-week moving average was 196,250, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 196,500. There is no evidence of growing unemployment.

According to the Kansas City Fed, manufacturing activity in the Tenth District stayed flat in March 2023. The composite index was 0.0, unchanged from February. The index has been flat for three consecutive months. The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey covers a wide range of industries in the Tenth District, which includes Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and parts of Colorado and New Mexico. The survey asks manufacturers about their current production, new orders, and shipments. The flat reading in the composite index suggests that manufacturing activity in the Tenth District is not growing or contracting. However, the survey also found that manufacturers were optimistic about the future. The future expectations index rose to 19.0, up from 16.5 in February.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• It Will Take Years To Replenish Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Granholm
• The New ‘Wild West’ In Oil Shipping
• U.S. Jobs Data Provides Support For Oil After Volatile Week
• LNG Shipping Rates Fall To A 7-Month Low As Gas Prices Drop
• Yellen says Treasury is ready to take ‘additional actions if warranted’ to stabilize banks
• Stocks close higher Thursday following a volatile trading session: Live updates
• Block shares plunge 16% after short seller Hindenburg says Jack Dorsey’s company facilitates fraud
• Bitcoin’s market dominance is climbing. Here’s what that says about interest rate expectations
• Crypto rebounds from post-Fed sell-off, investors shake off regulatory concerns
• Walmart Layoffs At Fulfillment Centers Signals Ominous Sign For Economy
• The Tell: The Fed has it wrong: Corporate greed is to blame for inflation, not rising wages, SocGen analyst says
• Futures Movers: Oil futures end lower on recession worries

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.