Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 270 points or 0.80%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.46%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.70%,
• Gold $2,037 up $13.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $3.49,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.352% down 0.087 points,
• EUR/USD $1.105 up $0.005,
• Bitcoin $28,351 down $384,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The ADP National Employment Report for April 2023 showed that private payrolls increased by 296,000 (blue line on the graph below), much higher than expected. This was the largest gain since July 2022. The services sector added 229,000 jobs, led by leisure/hospitality (154,000), education/health services (69,000), and trade/transportation/utilities (32,000). Meanwhile, the goods-producing industry added 67,000 jobs due to construction (53,000) and mining (52,000) while manufacturing shed 38,000 jobs. Medium establishments created 122,000 jobs, small-sized companies 121,000 jobs only large firms 47,000 jobs. Job changers in particular saw a dramatic decline in pay growth to 13.2%, the slowest pace of growth since November 2021, from 14.2%. For job stayers, pay growth eased to 6.7% from 6.9%. The report also showed that average hourly earnings for private employees rose 5.4% from a year ago, down from 5.5% in March. The deceleration in wage growth is a sign that labor market tightness is easing.

The S&P Global US Services PMI for April 2023 came in at 53.6, up from 52.6 in March. This was the fastest pace of expansion in the country’s service sector since April 2022. The increase in the S&P Global US Services PMI suggests that the services sector is growing at a faster pace.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met on May 3-4, 2023, and decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 0.25 percentage points to a range of 5.00 to 5.25 percent. The FOMC’s decision to raise interest rates was in response to high inflation which is not moderating quickly. There were few word changes in the meeting statement so there are no clues on how many more rate increases are projected. For a commentary on Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike – [click here].

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• TotalEnergies To Launch $27 Billion Energy Project In Iraq This Month
• Rare Earth Metals See Prices Plunge
• Oil Prices Crash As Demand Fears Mount
• Iran Seizes Second Oil Tanker In Arabian Gulf
• Fed recap: Here are Chair Powell’s market-moving comments after the latest rate hike
• Dow closes more than 250 points lower Wednesday after Fed hikes rates for a 10th time: Live updates
• The market is looking for the next ‘domino’ to fall, keeping banks under pressure
• Private payrolls surged by 296,000 in April, much higher than expected, ADP says
• Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Attempt To Explain If The Pause Is Hawkish Or Dovish
• Fed’s Powell says U.S. banking system is ‘sound and resilient’ after First Republic failure

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 367 points or 1.08%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.08%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.16%,
• Gold $2,026 up $34.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $4.03,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.426% down 0.148 points,
• EUR/USD $1.100 up $0.003,
• Bitcoin $28,718 up $863,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today that job openings decreased to 9.6 million on the last business day of March, a decrease of 632,000 from the previous month. The decline was driven by a decrease in openings in professional and business services, health care and social assistance, and transportation and warehousing. The decline in job openings is a sign that the labor market is cooling. This is likely due to a number of factors, including rising inflation, concerns about a recession, and the war in Ukraine. Note that the number of job openings per unemployed person has significantly declined (see graph below)

New orders for manufactured goods in March increased by $4.9 billion or 0.9% month-over-month to $539.0 billion (1.3% year-over-year gain). This follows two consecutive monthly decreases. The increase was driven by a rise in demand for transportation equipment, which increased by $4.4 billion or 5.4%. Excluding transportation equipment, new orders increased by 0.3%. Excluding defense, new orders increased by 1.0%. If one inflation adjusts this data, new orders declined 0.2% year-over-year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tesla Hikes Prices Of Model 3, Model Y In The U.S. And China
• Platinum May Soon Be In Short Supply
• Oil Prices Unlikely To Get Support From Rising Jet Fuel Demand
• WTI Crude Falls 4% As Economic Fears Trigger Selloff
• Diamondback Energy Misses Q1 Forecasts As Oil Prices Slide
• BP Beats Q1 Profit Forecast With “Exceptional” Oil And Gas Trading
• Dow tumbles more than 300 points as banking sector worries reignite before Fed rate decision: Live updates
• Drugs, guns and crypto seized, 288 arrested, in ‘unprecedented’ dark web crackdown
• Job openings fell more than expected in March to lowest level in nearly two years
• Washington Watch: Debt-ceiling standoff: Here’s what’s next, as U.S. faces potential default on June 1

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 46 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.11%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.04%,
• Gold $1,989 down $10.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.589% up 0.135 points,
• EUR/USD $1.097 down $0.005,
• Bitcoin $27,821 down $1,506,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Construction spending in the United States increased by 0.3% in March 2023 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,834.7 billion. This was the third consecutive month of growth. Unfortunately, inflation is high, and when subtracting the inflation rate from the construction growth rate – construction spending continues to slow (see graph below).

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services Report On Business for March 2023 registered 51.2%, 3.9 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 55.1%. The Services PMI® Index is a composite indicator of the performance of the non-manufacturing sector, including service-providing industries such as retail, transportation, and warehousing, as well as finance and insurance. The index is based on a survey of purchasing managers in the United States. The decline in the Services PMI® Index in March was driven by a number of factors, including:

• Rising inflation
• Supply chain disruptions
• Labor shortages

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• A summary of headlines we are reading today:
• U.S. April Oil Exports Beat Expectations
• Harvard Study: Divesting From Coal Is More Beneficial Than Previously Thought
• New Nuclear Technology Is Safer, More Efficient And More Sustainable
• Oil Prices Fall On Disappointing Manufacturing Data
• Jamie Dimon says ‘this part of the crisis is over’ after JPMorgan Chase buys First Republic
• Dow closes slightly lower following JPMorgan’s takeover of fallen First Republic: Live updates
• Bonds, Bitcoin, & Bullion Battered After Bank Bailout, Stagflation Scare
• The Economy Is A Powder Keg, Boiling Over And Ready To Blow
• Key Words: ‘It is hard to see how you can prevent the bad actors from using it for bad things’: Google’s former ‘Godfather of AI’ warns of misuse after quitting tech giant

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 272 points or 0.80%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.69%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.83%,
• Gold $1,998 down $1.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.88,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.422% down 0.104 points,
• EUR/USD $1.102 down $0.001,
• Bitcoin $29,381 down $325,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 755 Canada -12 to 93

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

Inflation-adjusted disposable personal income increased 4.0 percent year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) while inflation-adjusted consumer spending increased 1.9% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The important price indices (which reflect the amount of inflation) is 4.2% year-over-year (green line on the graph below) – 4.6% excluding food and energy).t). This data is not recessionary.

The University of Michigan’s April 2023 Consumer Sentiment Index was 63.5, and it was below the consensus forecast of 65.0. The decline in consumer sentiment was driven by a sharp drop in expectations for the future. The Index of Consumer Expectations fell to 64.7 from 70.7 in March. This was the lowest reading since December 2021. The Index of Current Economic Conditions was also lower in April, falling to 70.7 from 73.0 in March. This was the lowest reading since January 2022. This data is considered recessionary.

Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) increased to 48.6 – a reading below 50 implies a contraction of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing sector has been in contraction for over 6 months.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. House To Vote To Repeal Biden’s Solar Panel Tariff Waivers
• Chevron Beats Profit Estimates As Refining Margins Jump
• Permian Rig Count Inches Higher As WTI Recoups Some Losses
• Analysts See Oil Prices Rising To $90 By End-2023
• Oil Set For Sixth Straight Monthly Loss
• Senators Call For Seizure Of Iran Oil Cargos
• Dow gains more than 250 points Friday as index finishes best month since January: Live updates
• Key inflation gauge for the Fed rose 0.3% in March as expected
• Cybersecurity stocks are getting battered. Here’s how the Silicon Valley Bank failure is to blame.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 525 points or 1.57%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.43%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.96%,
• Gold $1,997 up $1.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $0.46,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.526% up 0.096 points,
• EUR/USD $1.102 down $0.002,
• Bitcoin $29,683 up $2,039,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the advance estimate for 1Q2023 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.1%. This was slower than the 2.6% growth in the fourth quarter of 2022. However, when viewed year-over-year – the economy grew at 1.6% (up from 0.9% in 4Q2023 – blue line in the graph below). Inflation calculate by the BEA fell to 5.3% in 1Q2023 (down from the 6.4% in 4Q2023 – red line in the graph below). The slowdown in GDP growth was driven by a number of factors, including:

• A decline in consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of GDP.
• A decrease in business investment, which accounts for about 17% of GDP.
• A slowdown in exports, which account for about 12% of GDP.

My takeaway is that economic growth is rather modest – and any black swan event would cause a recession.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales decreased 5.2% in March 2023 from February. This was the first month-over-month decline since November 2022. On an annual basis, pending home sales were down 23.2%. Pending home sales measures the number of homes that have gone under contract but have not yet closed. The decline in pending home sales is being caused to a significant degree by lower inventory of homes for sale

The Kansas City Fed’s Tenth District Manufacturing Activity composite index was -10 in April, down from 0 in March and February. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, initial claims for state unemployment benefits four-week moving average decreased by 4,000 to 236,000. The decrease in claims was driven by a decline in layoffs in the leisure and hospitality sector. Claims in the sector decreased by 12,000, accounting for all of the decline in initial claims.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tanker Carrying Oil For Chevron Seized By Iran
• The High Costs Of Electrifying The U.S. Auto Industry
• Wisconsin’s Only Oil Refinery Reopens 5 Years After Explosion
• Falling Crude Prices Drag Down Profits At China’s Oil Giants
• Pioneer CEO Retirement Could Reignite Exxon Takeover Talks
• Dow jumps 500 points on strong earnings, heads for best day since January: Live updates
• Amazon earnings are out — here are the numbers
• Here’s why the stock market is having such a massive rally today
• U.S. GDP rose at a 1.1% pace in the first quarter as signs build that the economy is slowing
• Market Snapshot: Dow jumps over 500 points as stocks rally after earnings from Meta and other big-tech names

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 229 points or 0.68%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.47%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.38%,
• Gold $1,998 down $6.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.441% up 0.043 points,
• EUR/USD $1.104 up $0.006,
• Bitcoin $27,362 down $366

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March increased to 4.6% year-over-year (5.6% inflation-adjusted). The increase is predominately due to civilian aircraft.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Schiff: Gold Is A Buy In Every Single Currency
• IEA: EVs Will Account For 20% Of All Car Sales This Year
• Large Crude Inventory Draw Jolts Oil Prices
• Pipeline Failure Triggers Inspection Of Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Plant
• Oil Prices Slip As Banking Fears Return
• First Republic’s dramatic slide continues, stock falls 30% as bank looks for rescue deal
• Dow, S&P 500 close lower Wednesday as First Republic woes eclipse Big Tech earnings: Live updates
• Tyson Foods to eliminate 10% of corporate jobs, memo says
• Commodities Bellwether Flashes US Recession Warning
• Revolution Investing: Stock investors are right to be cautious now, and being bearish is even smarter

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 345 points or 1.02%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.98%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.58%,
• Gold $2,009 up $8.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.67,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.392% down 0.123 points,
• USD $101.86 up $0.520,
• Bitcoin $27,634 up $248,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in April to 101.3, down from 104.0 in March. This is the lowest reading since July 2022. The decline was driven by a darkening outlook that augers a recession beginning in the near future. The decline in consumer confidence was widespread, with all major demographic groups reporting lower readings in April. The biggest declines were among consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over. The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring consumer confidence and other economic indicators. The decline was driven by a number of factors, including:

The Fifth District Manufacturing Report for April 2023 showed that manufacturing activity continued to contract in April. The headline index fell to -10 from -5 in March, and two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — declined.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 2.0% annual gain in February, down from 3.7% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 0.4%, down from 2.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 0.4% year-over-year gain, down from 2.6% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta again reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in February.

The U.S. Census Bureau reported that sales of new single-family houses in the United States increased 9.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 683,000 in March 2023. This is 3.4% below the March 2022 estimate of 707,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in March 2023 was $449,800. The average sales price was $562,400. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of March 2023 was 432,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• More Banking Trouble Pushes Oil Prices Down Another 2%
• Nigeria Completes Gas Pipeline Without Chinese Funds
• Credit Suisse Reports Alarming Magnitude Of Losses And Outflows
• Halliburton Earnings Beat Estimates In Tight Oilfield Services Market
• U.S. Net Debt To Exceed 110% By 2028 As Decarbonization Costs Mount
• First Republic falls nearly 50% to a record low after reporting a massive deposit drop
• Stocks close lower Tuesday as investors’ bank fears return, Dow sheds more than 300 points: Live updates
• Alphabet earnings are out — here are the numbers
• Japanese ispace moon landing attempt falls short at ‘very end,’ CEO says
• Market Extra: What’s next for the stock market as small-cap index suffers its first ‘death cross’ since January 2022
• Movers & Shakers: First Republic stock tanks, UPS shares weaken, Spotify shares advance, and more stocks on the move

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 66 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.29%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.09%,
• Gold $1,999 up $8.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.88,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.509% down 0.063 points,
• USD $101.71 down $0.047,
• Bitcoin $27,380 down $52,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average (MA3) for March 2023 was +0.01, up from -0.09 in February. This suggests that economic growth improved in the first quarter of 2023. Note that the CFNAI MA3 is a lagging indicator, meaning that it reflects economic activity that occurred in the past. The labor market remained strong, with job growth continuing at a healthy pace. Overall, the CFNAI MA3 suggests that the economy is growing, at a faster pace than in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The April 2023 Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey suggests that manufacturing activity in Texas slowed in April. The survey’s broad indicators for future activity suggest that respondents’ expectations for growth over the next six months remain subdued. The production index edged down to 0.9 in April, from 2.5 in March. The new orders index was negative for the 11th month in a row, falling to -9.6 in April from -14.3 in March.

Tomorrow morning, Tuesday, April 25, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller will be issuing its National Home Price Index for February. Selma Hepp, the CoreLogic chief economist, shared the following statement on factors influencing the present housing market:

While lower mortgage rates helped entice some potential homebuyers off the sidelines this year, the U.S. housing market continues to face many headwinds, including pessimistic consumer sentiments, fears around recent banking turmoil, the lack of a seasonal spring home supply uptick and continued mortgage rate volatility. Nevertheless, the typical spring demand rush and the continued lack of homes for sale lifted prices in February, following seven months of monthly declines.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Top 10 Countries With Largest Oil Reserves
• Worries About Weaker Dollar Fuel Demand For Gold
• Oil Prices Rebound After Testing Monthly Lows
• Russia To Boost Natural Gas Exports To China By 50%
• Bed Bath & Beyond vows it can pull off a sale – here’s what that means for shareholders
• Nasdaq closes lower Monday as investors prepare for Big Tech earnings: Live updates
• Earnings playbook: Your guide to a busy week of earnings, featuring Meta and Amazon
• Bitcoin sinks to $27,000, and Gemini expands outside U.S. amid crypto crackdown: CNBC Crypto World
• Brett Arends’s ROI: What was Tucker Carlson worth to Fox News? About $650 million, according to Wall Street.
• Don Lemon fired by CNN after 17 years with the news network
• Market Snapshot: Stocks struggle for direction ahead of tech-earnings onslaught

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 22 points or 0.07%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.11%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.09%,
• Gold $1,993 down $25.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.42,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.568% up 0.023 points,
• USD $101.71 down $0.13,
• Bitcoin $27,238 down $928,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +5 to 753 Canada -6 to 105

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EU Introduces New Tax To Push For Global Carbon Pricing
• Oilfield Services Company Schlumberger Beats Q1 Expectations
• Oil, Gas Drilling Activity In The U.S. Perks Up
• Chile Plans To Nationalize Lithium Extraction Industry
• Oil Prices Plunge As Bearish Sentiment Builds
• Economic Fears Put Oil Prices Under Pressure
• Stocks end Friday’s session little changed, Dow snaps 4-week win streak: Live updates
• A recession is coming — and stock markets won’t come through it unscathed, strategist says
• Ether drops to $1,900, and PitchBook research reveals ChatGPT’s impact on crypto: CNBC Crypto World
• “Brace” – JPMorgan Warns Debt-Ceiling Showdown Means “Non-Trivial Chance Of A Technical Default” On US Treasuries

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 110 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.80%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.60%,
• Gold $2,015 up $7.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.87,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.539% down 0.063 points,
• USD $101.86 down $0.11,
• Bitcoin $28,144 down $1,110,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s April 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed’s Third District contracted in April. The headline MBOSS index fell to -31.3 in April from 1.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020. The index’s decline was driven by a sharp drop in new orders and a slowdown in production. The decline in the Philadelphia Fed’s MBOSS index in April suggests that manufacturing activity in the Third District contracted in April. The decline in new orders suggests that demand for manufactured goods is weakening. The slowdown in production suggests that manufacturers are producing less output. The decline in the Philadelphia Fed’s MBOSS index in April is consistent with other recent data that suggests that the U.S. economy is slowing.

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose by 27,457 to 234,577 in the week ending April 8, 2023, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week moving average for new claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, rose by 7,500 to 215,000 (blue line on the graph below), the highest level since November 13, 2021.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States decreased by 0.7% in March 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after also falling 0.3% in February. The LEI is now down 0.8% over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023—slightly lower than the 1.0% growth it recorded over the previous six months. The LEI is a composite index of 10 economic indicators that are believed to forecast economic activity. The index is designed to anticipate turning points in the economy, typically three to six months in advance. The decline in the LEI in March was led by a decline in stock prices and a slowdown in consumer expectations. Stock prices fell sharply in March, as investors became more concerned about inflation and the potential for a recession. Consumer expectations also fell in March, as consumers became more concerned about the rising cost of living. The decline in the LEI in March suggests that the U.S. economy is slowing.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Marco Rubio Under Fire For Florida Gasoline Shortage
• Oil Sheds 2% Amid Indications Of Fragile Demand
• Ukraine’s Grain Flows Shift To Europe
• China’s Coal Use Set To Rise With Growing EV Demand
• SpaceX Starship rocket launches in historic test but explodes mid-flight
• Nasdaq closes lower Thursday, dragged by Tesla shares: Live updates
• Nuclear fusion will not be regulated the same way nuclear fission is — a big win for the fusion industry
• Futures Movers: U.S. oil benchmark settles at nearly a 3-week low, below $80 on recession fears

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.