Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 154 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.28%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.99%,
• Gold $1,996 up $13.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.96,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.605% down 0.032 points,
• USD Index $103.55 down $0.78,
• Bitcoin $26,864 down $209,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP National Employment Report from the ADP Research Institute shows private employers created 278,000 jobs in May 2023 and annual pay was up 6.5 percent year-over-year. Job growth is strong while pay growth continues to slow. But gains in private employment were fragmented last month, with leisure and hospitality, natural resources, and construction taking the lead whilst manufacturing and finance lost jobs. Strong employment gains will allow the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist stated:

This is the second month we’ve seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers. Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 44% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from April but still 20 points higher than the 49-year average reading. The percentage of owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 24% and 10% of owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The labor force participation rate remains below pre-COVID levels, which is contributing to the shortage of workers available to fill open positions. Small businesses have a record high level of job openings currently and are working hard to fill their open positions.

Construction spending during April 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of  7.2% above April 2022. However, when the spending is adjusted for inflation – spending declined 3.4% year-over-year. This is a sign of a weak economy.

In the week ending May 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 231,750 to 232,000.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 0.8% from the first quarter one year ago whilst labor costs increased by 3.8% in the same period. Whenever labor costs rise faster than productivity – it is not only inflationary but makes the country less competitive.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 48.4 in May, down from 50.2 in April, but broadly in line with the earlier released ‘flash’ estimate of 48.5. The latest figure indicated the fastest deterioration in operating conditions since February. Contributing to the latest overall decline was a renewed and solid fall in new orders at manufacturing firms in May. The decrease was the sharpest in three months. Lower new sales were often attributed to sufficient inventory levels at customers and previous hikes in selling prices which served to dampen demand conditions. F

The May Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.9%, 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion.

U.S.-based employers announced 80,089 job cuts in May, a 20% increase from the 66,995 cuts announced one month prior. It is 287% higher than the 20,712 cuts announced in the same month in 2022. So far this year, companies have announced plans to cut 417,500 jobs, a 315% increase from the 100,694 cuts announced in the same period last year. It is the highest January-May total since 2020.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Grid Needs A $20 Trillion Upgrade To Support Energy Transition
• Copper Prices Trounced By Falling Demand
• WTI Screams Back Up Past $70 Despite Crude Inventory Builds
• Natural Gas Prices Plunge Further Amid Rise In U.S. Stockpiles
• Why Apple’s VR headset could succeed where every similar product has failed
• Defense spending levels threaten to delay Senate plan to fast-track debt ceiling bill
• Stocks jump Thursday, Nasdaq pops 1% as traders cheer advancement of debt ceiling bill: Live updates
• Bitcoin suffers worst month of 2023, Circle cuts U.S. bonds on debt ceiling doubt: CNBC Crypto World
• Wage hikes may have been a key driver of inflation. They may now be fueling mass layoffs
• Planned Layoffs Are Up Fourfold So Far This Year
• Dell stock jumps after early earnings release shows largest sales decline on record, but still beats expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 135 points or 0.41%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.63%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.61%,
• Gold $1,982 up $5.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $1.58,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.631% down 0.065 points,
• USD Index $104.22 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $27,015 down $840,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of job openings edged up to 10.1 million on the last business day of April 2023. Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 6.1 million. Total separations decreased to 5.7 million. The trend lines for jobs growth are declining after peaking in March 2022.

The Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (known as the Beige Book) shows economic activity was little changed overall in April and early May. It was summarized as follows:

Four Districts reported small increases in activity, six no change, and two slight to moderate declines. Expectations for future growth deteriorated a little, though contacts still largely expected a further expansion in activity. Consumer expenditures were steady or higher in most Districts, with many noting growth in spending on leisure and hospitality. Education and healthcare organizations saw steady activity on balance. Manufacturing activity was flat to up in most Districts, and supply chain issues continued to improve. Demand for transportation services was down, especially in trucking, where contacts reported there was a “freight recession.” Residential real estate activity picked up in most Districts despite continued low inventories of homes for sale. Commercial construction and real estate activity decreased overall, with the office segment continuing to be a weak spot. Outlooks for farm income fell in most districts, and energy activity was flat to down amidst lower natural gas prices. Financial conditions were stable or somewhat tighter in most Districts. Contacts in several Districts noted a rise in consumer loan delinquencies, which were returning closer to pre-pandemic levels. High inflation and the end of Covid-19 benefits continued to stress the budgets of low- and moderate-income households, driving increased demand for social services, including food and housing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Argentina’s Vaca Muerta Shale Play Could Produce 1 Million Bpd In 2030
• Colombia’s President May Have To Rethink His Oil And Gas Exploration Ban
• American Offshore Wind Gets Gulf Of Mexico Green Light
• Reuters Survey: OPEC Output Down 460,00 BPD This Month
• Goldman And Others See Rising Odds Of Another OPEC+ Output Cut
• Gasoline Prices Tick Up For The Summer
• Singapore Detains Record Number Of Oil Tankers As Shadow Fleet Expands
• Stocks slip as investors look to House vote on the debt ceiling, Nasdaq pops nearly 6% in May: Live updates
• Debt ceiling bill poised to pass the House as Senate aims for a Friday vote

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 51 points or 0.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.32%,
• S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
• Gold $1,960 up $15.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $2.94,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.683% down 0.137 points,
• USD Index $104.08 down $0.12,
• Bitcoin $27,852 up $192,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in May to 102.3 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board said:

Consumer confidence declined in May as consumers’ view of current conditions became somewhat less upbeat while their expectations remained gloomy. Their assessment of current employment conditions saw the most significant deterioration, with the proportion of consumers reporting jobs are ‘plentiful’ falling 4 ppts from 47.5 percent in April to 43.5 percent in May. Consumers also became more downbeat about future business conditions, weighing on the expectations index. However, expectations for jobs and incomes over the next six months held relatively steady. While consumer confidence has fallen across all age and income categories over the past three months, May’s decline reflects a particularly notable worsening in the outlook among consumers over 55 years of age.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a -1.1% year-over-year loss, down from a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Selma Hepp, CoreLogic chief economist noted that higher-priced homes are once again leading the monthly gains in prices after months of relatively larger weakness following the housing slowdown.

Texas factory activity remained relatively flat in May with the production index marginally down from 0.9 to -1.3, with the near-zero reading suggestive of little change in output from last month. Manufacturing is weak in all Fed districts.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Exxon Is Ramping Up Activity In Offshore Guyana As The Economy Soars
• Lithium Market To Remain Tight Through 2024: Chile
• WTI Plunges Below $70 With U.S. Debt Deal In Jeopardy
• Tax Credit Uncertainty Could Derail $1-Billion Pink Hydrogen Project
• Gasoline Demand Over Memorial Day Weekend Lower Than In 2022
• Debt ceiling bill faces a tough path in the House as GOP opposition grows
• Nvidia crosses into $1 trillion market cap before giving back gains
• Dow finishes Tuesday lower as Wall Street weighs odds of debt ceiling deal clearing Congress: Live updates
• Memorial Day air travel tops 2019 levels as consumers keep shelling out for trips
• Key Words: ‘There is no other China, there is only one China’: Nvidia CEO warns of ‘enormous damage’ if China chip war escalates.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 329 points or 1.00%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.19%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.30%,
• Gold $1,947 up $2.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.95,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.810% down 0.005 points,
• USD Index $104.21 down $0.04,
• Bitcoin $26,771 up $272,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -9 to 711 Canada +2 to 87

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in April, up two consecutive months, increased 1.1% – and is up 4.2% year-over-year (2.1% year-over-year inflation adjusted). The biggest gain came from defense aircraft.

Real Disposable personal income (DPI) increased 3.4% year-over-year in April 2023 and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.3% year-over-year. The PCE price index increased 4.4% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.7% year-over-year. Price indices show the amount of inflation that is occurring – and inflation is relatively unchanged from last month. I consider this a relatively good report showing the consumer is not hunkering down completely.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Rebounds As U.S. Drillers Continue To Pull Back
• Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of OPEC Meeting And U.S. Debt Deadline
• A U.S. Default Is Unlikely, But So Is An Oil Rally
• Stocks rally Friday on hopes for a debt ceiling deal, Nasdaq notches fifth straight week of wins: Live updates
• A.I. excitement leads to a winning week for Nvidia and other tech stocks
• A.I.-focused cryptos rise on Nvidia demand, and Shaq served with FTX lawsuit: CNBC Crypto World
• Ford’s EV charging deal with Tesla puts pressure on GM, other rival automakers
• Inflation rose 0.4% in April and 4.7% from a year ago, according to key gauge for the Fed
• Mortgage rates rise after inflation surprise
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield extends the longest streak of advances since 2018 after PCE inflation report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 35 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.71%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.88%,
• Gold $1,940 down $24.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $2.41,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.823% up 0.104 points,
• USD Index $104.25 up $0.36,
• Bitcoin $26,486 up $229,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Overall US Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in March according to CoreLogic. For the month of March, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 2.9% in March 2022 and a 0.4 percentage point decrease compared with 3% in February 2023.

Although the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April improved, it is the 3-month moving average that is used for economic forecasting. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.12 in March. This index is the best of the coincident indicators – and generally, the trend lines are used for forecasting. Since the trend is down, it indicates the economy is slowing but the level indicates it is not close to recession levels.

Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023 – up from the advance estimate of 1.1%. This was down from an increase of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The slowdown in GDP growth was due to a number of factors, including:

• • A decline in inventory investment.
  • A slowdown in business investment.
  • A smaller decrease in housing investment.
  • An upturn in exports.
  • Imports also turned up.

Note that the growth from the quarter one year ago is 1.6% – up from last quarter’s 0.9% (blue line on graph below). The inflation price index was 5.4% (down from last quarter’s 6.4% – red line on graph below). This continues to show inflation is moderating (but not very fast).

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – remained at 78.9 in April, posting no change from the previous month. Year over year, pending transactions dropped by 20.3%.

In the week ending May 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 229,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 17,000 from 242,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,750, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 12,500 from 244,250 to 231,750.

Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity remained mostly steady in May 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -1 in May, up from -10 in April and down from 0 in March. Manufacturing appears very weak across all of the Federal Reserve districts.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Finnish Nuclear Power Plant Cuts Output After Prices Go Negative
• Aker BP Makes Big Oil Discovery In The North Sea
• Billionaire Mining Investor Says Copper Price Plunge Won’t Last
• Solar Power Investment Is Set To Eclipse That Of Oil Production In 2023
• Debt ceiling talks enter crunch time as negotiators get closer to a deal
• Nasdaq closes about 1.7% higher Thursday as Nvidia’s surge powers tech rally: Live updates
• Nasdaq closes about 1.7% higher Thursday as Nvidia’s surge powers tech rally: Live updates
• Ukraine war live updates: Ukraine set to get F-16 fighter jets; Russian mercenaries pull out of Bakhmut
• Almost Two Thirds Of Americans View Media As “Truly The Enemy Of The People”; New Poll Finds
• Market Snapshot: Dow struggles for direction, S&P 500 and Nasdaq jump as debt-ceiling talks drag on
• Bond Report: Two-year Treasury yield rises for 11th straight session on higher chance of June, July Fed rate hikes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 256 points or 0.77%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.61%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.73%,
• Gold $1,962 down $12.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $0.95,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.738% up 0.04 points,
• USD Index $103.88 up $0.40,
• Bitcoin $26,267 down $915,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes:

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. 

The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rThe Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.ate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.

Quite a shock to the pundits who thought the FOMC would not raise rates. But there was a caveat that the Fed would stop raising rates if “risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals” – and I assume this means they will stop if banks start going belly up or a recession hits or ????

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Clean Energy Megaprojects Face Iron Law
• Poland Steps Up Gold Buying
• UBS Predicts Lower Gasoline Prices In The U.S. This Summer
• Oil Moves Higher As EIA Reports Huge Crude Draw
• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Climb Nearly 3% On Robust Demand
• Goldman Sachs Predicts An Oil Price Rally
• Fed officials less confident on the need for more rate hikes, minutes show
• Debt ceiling talks hit a snag over spending levels with eight days until default deadline
• Dow drops for a fourth straight day on U.S. default worries as debt ceiling talks stumble: Live updates
• Bitcoin sinks to $26,000, and OFAC sanctions crypto wallets tied to North Korea: CNBC Crypto World
• The Fed: ‘Several’ Fed officials said more rate hikes may not be needed and other key takeaways from May minutes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 231 points or 0.69%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.26%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.12%,
• Gold $1,977 down $0.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $1.00,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.705% down 0.014 points,
• USD Index $103.57 up $0.37,
• Bitcoin $27,109 up $329,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Richmond Fed’s Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May 2023 showed that manufacturing activity in the Fifth District of the United States continued to decline. The composite index, which measures overall manufacturing activity, fell to -15 in May from -10 in April. The decline in manufacturing activity was driven by a number of factors, including:

• Rising input costs, which are squeezing profit margins.
• Slowing demand, as consumers and businesses are feeling the pinch of higher prices.
• Supply chain disruptions, which are making it difficult for manufacturers to get the parts and materials they need.

The Monthly New Residential Sales for April 2023:

• The seasonally adjusted annual rate of new home sales was 683,000, up 4.1% from March and 11.8% from April 2022.
• The median sales price of new homes was $420,800, down 8.2% from April 2022.
• The supply of new homes for sale was 433,000, which represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate.

It is important to note that the market is still facing some challenges, such as rising construction costs and supply chain disruptions. These challenges could limit the pace of growth in new home sales in the months ahead.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Declining Iron Ore Prices Show China’s Recovery is Still Dragging
• Can China Secure Its Long-Term Goals In Afghanistan?
• 1,650 North Sea Oil & Gas Workers To Strike In Biggest Walkout So Far
• Oil Prices Rise As Saudi Energy Minister Threatens Short Sellers
• Strong Fuel Demand Boosts Oil Prices
• China’s Coal Imports From Australia Surged By 75% In April
• S&P 500 closes 1% lower Tuesday as debt ceiling talks drag on in Washington: Live updates
• Apple announces multibillion-dollar deal with Broadcom for U.S.-made chips
• Microsoft says Bing can be default search engine for ChatGPT users
• Debt-Ceiling Doubts Finally Weigh On Stocks; Bonds & Gold Bid
• Movers & Shakers: Lowe’s, PacWest, Yelp stocks rally while BJ’s and Zoom Video shares fall, and other stocks on the move
• Market Snapshot: Dow falls 200 points as debt ceiling fears mount

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 140 points or 0.42%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.50%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.02%,
• Gold $1,974 down $7.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.26,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.723% up 0.031 points,
• USD Index $103.27 up $0.07,
• Bitcoin $26,856 down $62,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No significant releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Inch Higher As Debt Ceiling Talks Drag On
• Are We Nearing An Inflection Point For Oil?
• Ford Unveils 3 Lithium Supply Deals For EV Push
• U.S. And Australia Sign Clean Energy Pact
• McCarthy says ‘Decisions have to be made’ at debt ceiling meeting with Biden
• Bill Gates says A.I. could kill Google Search and Amazon as we know them
• Gemini says DCG missed debt payment, and Strike expands to more than 65 markets: CNBC Crypto World
• GM will introduce an all-electric Cadillac Escalade ‘IQ’ later this year
• Zoltan Pozsar: Fed Is “Foaming The Runway” For Big Bank Problems Ahead
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks kick off week on a cautious note as debt-ceiling talks continue
• Living With Climate Change: Breakthrough deal struck to keep drought-ravaged Colorado River flowing — key water source for California

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 109 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.24%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.14%,
• Gold $1,977 up $17.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.05,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.669% up 0.051 points,
• USD Index $103.19 down $0.39,
• Bitcoin $26,839 up $88,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -11 to 720 Canada -9 to 85

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.6% in April 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.2% in March. The LEI is down 4.4% over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022). According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board:

The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook. Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread—but less so than in March’s reading, which resulted in a smaller decline. Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April. Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.

[Note that EconCurrents has yet to forecast a recession – and currently is forecasting a slightly improving economy. However, the overall economy remains weak (especially goods manufacturing) and it would not take much of an economic event to cause the economy to recess.]

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Drilling Rigs Swing To Annual Loss For First Time In Years
• Warren Buffett Buys Up Even More Occidental Petroleum
• Oil Prices Climb As Bullish Sentiment Builds
• Bank Of America Sees Oil Prices Heading Toward $90 This Year
• Why The Market Didn’t React To The Latest SPR News
• New Mexico Accounted For 50% Of U.S. Oil Production Growth In 2022
• Republicans walk out of debt ceiling talks, say White House isn’t being ‘reasonable’
• Fed Chair Powell says rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation
• Foot Locker’s 28% plunge, guidance cut may signal trouble ahead for other retailers
• Powell signals a June pause, says Fed can afford to watch data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 115 points or 0.34%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.51%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.94%,
• Gold $1,960 down $24.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.80,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.653% up 0.007 points,
• USD Index $103.52 up $0.64,
• Bitcoin $26,736 down $661,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed that manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District contracted in May. The survey’s headline index, which measures overall business activity, rose to -10.4 in May from -31.3 in April. This is the ninth consecutive month that the index has been negative. The survey’s indexes for new orders, shipments, and employment also remained negative in May. The survey’s prices paid and prices received indexes both rose in May. The prices paid index rose to 36.2 from 29.4 in April, and the prices received index rose to 19.0 from 10.2 in April. The survey’s future general activity index fell to -10.3 in May from -1.5 in April. This suggests that firms do not expect activity to improve much over the next six months. So far the regional Fed’s manufacturing surveys are showing a fall in manufacturing output.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. released its April 2023 CEO Turnover Report showing that 147 CEOs left their positions in April 2023, up from the 139 CEOs who left in March 2023. This is the highest quarterly toal since Q1 2020. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

Companies have a lot to consider as we head to the second half of the year, as recession and inflation concerns continue. Many sectors are letting go of workers, and new technologies, like AI, are forcing conversations about use cases. This environment is conducive to new leadership.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, decreased 3.4% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.28 million. The median existing-home price³ for all housing types in April was $388,800, a decline of 1.7% from April 2022 ($395,500). The decline in existing-home sales was likely due to a number of factors, including rising mortgage rates, rising home prices, and a limited supply of homes for sale.

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims for state unemployment insurance benefits in the week ending May 13 was 242,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 264,000. The four-week moving average was 244,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 245,250.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach imported 657,000 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in April 2023, down 23% in April 2022. This is the lowest monthly volume since April 2020. Exports were down 5% from April 2022.  Imports show consumption in the U.S. – and it appears that consumption is down which is indicative of a slowing economy. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are the busiest ports in the United States and the second busiest ports in the world, in terms of container volume. They handle more than 40% of all containerized cargo entering the United States.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia’s Finally Starting To Cut Oil Production
• Stainless Steel Remains Buyers Market As Demand Growth Flatlines
• Chances Of World Reaching Net-Zero By 2050 Unlikely: Exxon
• Oil Prices Fall Again As Wall Street Sees Threat Of Historic Default
• Disney scraps plans for new Florida campus, mass employee relocation amid DeSantis feud
• Meta pulls the curtain back on its A.I. chips for the first time
• Stocks close higher for a second straight day, S&P 500 adds nearly 1% on hopes for a debt ceiling resolution: Live updates
• “Huge” Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses
• Financial Crime: ‘Fraud is fun’: Teen hacker charged with breaking into DraftKings accounts leading to theft of $600,000

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.