Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 177 points or 0.50%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.90%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.99%,
• Gold $1,959 up $12.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.35,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.957% down 0.055 points,
• USD Index $101.64 down $0.14,
• Bitcoin $29,316 down $146,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -5 to 664 Canada +6 to 193

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real personal consumption expenditure growth in June 2023 was 2.4% year-over-year – up from 2.2% YoY in May 2023. Real disposable personal income growth was 4.7% – up from 4.1% in May. Inflation (as measured by the PCE Price Index) was 3.0% year-over-year – down from 3.8% in May. The bottom line is that the economy appears to be accelerating with inflation moderating going into 3Q2023 where some pundits are predicting a recession start. I have yet to see any data or trends which suggest a recession is possible.

The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment rose for the second straight month, soaring 11% above June and reaching its most favorable reading since October 2021. All components of the index improved considerably, led by a 18% surge in long-term business conditions and 14% increase in short-run business conditions. Overall, the sharp rise in sentiment was largely attributable to the continued slowdown in inflation along with stability in labor markets. However, sentiment for lower-income consumers fell. This group anticipates that inflation and their income prospects will both worsen in the year ahead, highlighting the heterogeneity of views across the population.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• New Catalyst Synthesis Paves The Way For Next-Gen Lithium-Air Batteries
• Imperial Oil Earnings Plummet By 72% On Turnaround, Lower Prices
• U.S. Drilling Dips Slightly Amid Rising Oil Prices
• 500 EVs Among The 3000 Cars On Burning Ship Off Dutch Coast
• Rising Gasoline Prices Boost Inflation Concerns
• Bullish Momentum Builds As Oil Markets Tighten
• Hopes Of A ‘Soft Landing’ Fuel Bullish Sentiment
• S&P 500 closes nearly 1% higher on softening inflation data, nabs 3rd week of gains: Live updates
• As Ford loses billions on EVs, the company embraces hybrids
• Key Fed inflation rate falls to lowest annual level in nearly 2 years
• Pentagon Approves Hazard Pay For US Troops In Ukraine, Paving Way For Possible Expanded Presence

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 237 points or 0.67%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.55%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.64%,
• Gold $1,944 down $26.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.010% up 0.159 points,
• USD Index $101.79 up $0.91,
• Bitcoin $29,162 down $285,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods increased again in June 2023 to 10.5% year-over-year compared to 9.25% last month. What other sources of this data may not be telling you is that the majority of the recent increases are from the aircraft sector. Still, durable goods appear to be doing better than other economic sectors. No sign of a recession in this data set.

According to CoreLogic, for the month of May, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due. The rate of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a measure that ballooned in 2021, has receded to a level last observed in March 2020. No sign of recession in this data set.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.6% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2023 according to the “advance” estimate. The implicit price deflator – which measures inflation in the GDP – has fallen to 3.6% year-over-year. Advance estimates historically can be wild guesses – but my take is that the next two estimates of 2Q2023 GDP will be stronger as the economy seems to be modestly accelerating. Inflation is a different issue as I expect the deceleration in inflation to begin to be more modest as the year-over-year growth will be compared to the decreasing inflation which began one year ago.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity continued to decline in July 2023, and expectations for future activity stayed mostly flat. The manufacturing sector overall remains in a recession.

Pending Home Sales fell by 15.6% year-over-year which is an improvement. Pending home sales should begin to improve as it will now be compared to bad data from a year ago.

In the week ending July 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 233,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 237,500.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Cobalt Prices Rally As Battery Demand Booms
• New Catalyst Efficiently Cleans Methane From Natural Gas Exhaust
• Oil Ignores Fed Hike As WTI Hits $80
• Largest U.S. Power Grid Declares Emergency Alert
• Global Coal Demand To Stay At Record-High Levels In 2023
• Dow loses more than 200 points Thursday to snap historic 13-day rally: Live updates
• Bud Light maker Anheuser-Busch to lay off hundreds of corporate staff
• SpaceX aims to break a 56-year rocket record with back-to-back launches
• Bond Report: 10-, 30-year Treasury yields end above 4% after U.S. GDP, report on BOJ

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 82 points or 0.23%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.02%,
• Gold $1,976 up $12.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.71,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.863% down 0.051 points,
• USD Index $100.96 down $0.39,
• Bitcoin $29,401 up $203,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in June 2023  is 23.8% above June 2022. The median sales price of new houses sold in June 2023 was $415,400. The average sales price was $494,700. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of June was 432,000. This represents a supply of 7.4 months at the current sales rate. Funny how lower prices increase the volume of sales. The month’s supply of new houses is at levels associated with recessions.

The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting statement shows they decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. They see the economic situation as follows:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.

The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Aluminum Imports Skyrocket Amid Domestic Supply Shortages
• Big Oil Profits To Take a Hit Amid Lower Oil And Gas Prices Big Oil companies
• Oil Prices Fall Slightly On Small Crude, Gasoline Draws
• Rolls-Royce Shares Skyrocket 20% On Long-Haul Travel Boom
• China Accelerates Crude Stockpiling To Highest Rate In Three Years
• Fed approves hike that takes interest rates to highest level in more than 22 years
• Dow rises for a 13th straight day, posting its best winning streak since 1987: Live updates
• Here’s what the Federal Reserve’s 25 basis point interest rate hike means for your money
• Bankruptcies Hit Healthcare Hard
• The Margin: Netflix criticized for posting AI jobs paying up to $900,000 while writers and actors are on strike
• Regional-bank stocks add to gains on Fed move and after PacWest deal suggests stabilization in sector

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 27 points or 0.08%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.61%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
• Gold $1,966 up $3.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.85,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.896% up 0.037 points,
• USD Index $101.30 down $0.04,
• Bitcoin $29,216 up $107,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Composite Index in May 2023 posted a -1.7% year-over-year loss, the same as in the previous month. Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp explained:

In May, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index decline indicates the second month of year-over-year losses. However, while the annual decline reflects price drops that occurred in 2022, recent above-average price gains indicate an inflection ahead. And while home sales activity still continues to tell a tale of two markets: one of the West, which is constrained by a lack of existing inventory, and the other of the Southeast and South, where the availability of new homes for sale is creating sales opportunities; home prices are not necessarily following the trend anymore. Price gains have been strongest in Mid-West pandemic-laggers, Cleveland, Chicago, Detroit, which are now the hottest housing markets. In addition, 11 metros saw reacceleration in annual prices. Prices in many of the previously declining West Coast markets are rebounding and showing some renewed vigor, particularly as those are also most constrained with a lack of homes for sale. Heating of competition among buyers is also reflected in an increasing share of home selling over the asking price again, 39%, compared to an average of 25% pre-pandemic. As a result, median price premium (ratio of sale price to list price) is back to positive, at 1%, after declining since last September.

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained sluggish in July 2023. The composite manufacturing index edged down from −8 in June to −9 in July. Two of its three component indexes — shipments and new orders — also fell slightly. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® rose again in July to 117.0 (1985=100), up from 110.1 in June. Expectations climbed well above 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Despite rising interest rates, consumers are more upbeat, likely reflecting lower inflation and a tight labor market. Although consumers are less convinced of a recession ahead, we still anticipate one likely before yearend. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence rose in July 2023 to its highest level since July 2021, reflecting pops in both current conditions and expectations. Headline confidence appears to have broken out of the sideways trend that prevailed for much of the last year. Greater confidence was evident across all age groups, and among both consumers earning incomes less than $50,000 and those making more than $100,000.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Is China’s Economic Miracle Fading? A Look At The Hurdles Ahead
• Low Gasoline Inventories Push Up Prices For U.S. Consumers
• Oil Prices Tick Higher On Optimistic Economic Forecasts
• Russian Crude Oil Exports Continue To Plunge
• GM Raises Earnings Guidance For Second Time This Year
• Oil Bulls Are Cautiously Optimistic As Brent Holds Above $82
• Dow closes higher for 12th straight day, registers longest rally since February 2017: Live updates
• Home prices continue to climb with ‘striking’ regional differences, says S&P Case-Shiller
• Musk explains why he’s rebranding Twitter to X: It’s not just a name change
• Airline Stocks Hit Turbulence After Alaska Air Signals Slowing Demand

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 184 points or 0.52%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.19%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.40%,
• Gold $1,956 down $10.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $1.83,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.869% up 0.003 points,
• USD Index $101.42 up $0.34,
• Bitcoin $29,107 down $973,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

My favorite coincident indicator – Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average – improved marginally from -0.21 in May to -0.16 in June 2023. Any value above -0.70 is considered an expanding economy but any value below zero considers the expansion below the historical trend rate of growth. In other words, the economy is growing – but weakly.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Climb To Multi-Month High As Market Eyes Tightening
• Canada To Cut Some Oil & Gas Subsidies
• TC Energy Agrees To Sell 40% Of U.S. Natural Gas Pipelines For $3.9 Billion
• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Fell 34% In The First Half Of 2023
• Musk risks even more damage to Twitter’s business as the messaging app changes name to X
• Dow rises nearly 200 points, extends rally to 11 days for longest winning streak in six years: Live updates
• The market is going through a short squeeze of historic proportions, even bigger than the meme craze
• Bitcoin drops to $29,000, and OpenAI’s Sam Altman launches Worldcoin: CNBC Crypto World
• Noose Tightens On Consumer Credit, Auto Loan Rejections Hit Record High
• Elon Musk: Twitter rebranded as X as blue bird logo killed off
• The Tell: This stock-market sentiment gauge hit a level not seen in over 2 years. But Jefferies says it isn’t a ‘golden indicator’ to the upside.
• Market Snapshot: Dow heads for longest winning streak in over 6 years as central-bank decisions and earnings loom

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 3 points or 0.01%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.22%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.03%,
• Gold $1,965 down $6.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.29,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.837% down 0.017 points,
• USD Index $101.08 up $0.20,
• Bitcoin $29,892 up $154,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -6 to 669 Canada unchanged at 187

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

None

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Europe Backs Kazakhstan’s Efforts To Sidestep Russian Influence
• China And Russia Kick Off Joint Military Exercises In Sea Of Japan
• U.S. Oil Rig Count Continues To Drop
• A Nickel Glut Is Looming
• U.S. Natural Gas Prices Set For First Weekly Gain In Four Weeks
• Wall Street rides high into next week as traders brace for a major Fed decision and key earnings
• The gender wage gap is now the smallest it’s been since it started being tracked in 1979
• Regional bank yields have fallen but plenty are still paying more than 4%
• Wind And Solar Are Not Cheaper Than Coal And Oil
• Futures Movers: Oil prices score a 4th straight weekly gain
• Ron DeSantis threatens legal action against Budweiser for ‘radical’ advertising campaign

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 164 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.05%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.68%,
• Gold $1,973 down $7.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $0.28,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.848% up 0.106 points,
• USD Index $100.82 up $0.54,
• Bitcoin $29,745 down $310,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed July 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey was little changed at a reading of -13.5, its 11th consecutive negative reading. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative. Furthermore, the index for shipments declined and turned negative. The employment index suggests mostly steady employment overall. The prices paid index remained below its long-run average, while the prices received index rose. Most future indicators improved, suggesting more widespread expectations for overall growth over the next six months. The manufacturing sector remains in a recession.

Total existing-home sales fell 18.9% year-over-year. The median existing-home price³ for all housing types in June was $410,200, the second-highest price of all time and down 0.9% from the record-high of $413,800 in June 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

The first half of the year was a downer for sure with sales lower by 23%. Fewer Americans were on the move despite the usual life-changing circumstances. The pent-up demand will surely be realized soon, especially if mortgage rates and inventory move favorably.

In the week ending July 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 237,500, a decrease of 9,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 246,750.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in June 2023 to 106.1 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.6 percent in May. The LEI is down 4.2 percent over the six-month period between December 2022 and June 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8 percent contraction over the previous six months (June to December 2022). Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board added:

The US LEI fell again in June, fueled by gloomier consumer expectations, weaker new orders, an increased number of initial claims for unemployment, and a reduction in housing construction. The Leading Index has been in decline for fifteen months—the longest streak of consecutive decreases since 2007-08, during the runup to the Great Recession. Taken together, June’s data suggests economic activity will continue to decelerate in the months ahead. We forecast that the US economy is likely to be in recession from Q3 2023 to Q1 2024. Elevated prices, tighter monetary policy, harder-to-get credit, and reduced government spending are poised to dampen economic growth further.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia Recycling Used Cooking Oil To Make Marine Fuel
• New EV Innovations Put A Dent In Copper Demand
• European Warehouses Are Overflowing With Chinese Solar Panels
• California Consumes Nearly All Renewable Diesel In The U.S.
• Heatwave Shows That Biden’s Better Grid Initiative Is Woefully Underfunded
• Tesla shares down on slimming margins, Cybertruck concerns
• Netflix stock sinks as Wall Street looks for clarity on revenue growth
• AMC drops plan to charge more for better seats at the movies
• June home sales drop to the slowest pace in 14 years as short supply chokes the market
• Futures Movers: Oil prices finish higher with traders’ attention ‘shifting between demand and supply’
• The Tell: Why U.S. economy is heading to a soft landing, and its stocks may be a better bet than those in China and Europe, says Goldman Sachs

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 109 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.24%,
• Gold $1,982 up $1.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 down $0.49,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.742% down 0.047 points,
• USD Index $100.27 up $0.33,
• Bitcoin $30,055 up $259,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in June 2023 were 15.3% below June 2022. Housing starts 8.1% below June 2022. Housing completions were 5.5% above June 2022. The new home sector is in an interesting position where the output of the process remains in a growth cycle whilst the input to the process (permits and starts) remains in a recession.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Biden’s Infrastructure Boom Is Being Held Back By High Construction Costs
• Used-Car Prices On A Steady Decline As Inflation Cools
• Ex-Tesla Exec Secures $5 Billion Valuation On Battery Recycling Venture
• Baker Hughes Q2 Profit Beats Analyst Estimates
• Dow jumps 100 points for its eighth straight winning day, a first since 2019: Live updates
• As Macy’s stock struggles, the retailer bets on private brands with more modern looks
• Goldman Sachs misses on profit after hits from GreenSky, real estate
• Apple stock pops on report it’s developing its own equivalent of ChatGPT
• A Decade Of ‘Deals’: The Definitive Timeline Of The Bidens’ Influence-Peddling
• Commodities Corner: Wheat prices gain over 8% as Russia-Ukraine tensions rise after the suspension of the grain deal

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 367 points or 1.06%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.76%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.71%,
• Gold $1,981 up $25.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.58,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.795% down 0.002 points,
• USD Index $99.95 up $0.11,
• Bitcoin $29,738 down $126,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

June 2023 retail sales were up 1.7% year-over-year – 0.9% inflation-adjusted. Non-store retailers and restaurants lead the growth of retail sales. These are relatively weak numbers that are showing little sign of recovery.

Industrial production declined 0.4% year-over-year with industry groups manufacturing declining 0.3%, mining growing 2.8%, and utilities declining 6.2%. This sector remains in a recession.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russian Aluminum Accounts For 80% Of LME Stockpiles
• Mounting Deficits Force Euro Minsters To Cut Energy Support Measures
• What Happens If Consumers Lose Confidence In The Electricity Industry?
• Ford Slashes F-150 Lightning Price As Tesla Kicks Off Cybertruck Production
• Oil Prices Stabilize As Traders Await Inventory Report
• Dow pops more than 300 points for 7th straight positive day, longest winning streak since 2021: Live updates
• Johnson & Johnson sues Biden administration over Medicare drug price negotiations
• Bitcoin dips below $30,000, and Gensler says SEC ‘disappointed’ with part of XRP ruling: CNBC Crypto World
• McDonald’s told to shut franchises over abuse claims
• ‘Just 1% of the nation’s homes have changed hands this year,’ Redfin says

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 76 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.93%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.39%,
• Gold $1,959 down $5.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $1.33,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.807% down 0.013 points,
• USD Index $99.85 up $0.07,
• Bitcoin $29,954 down $335,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell six points to 1.1. New orders inched up and shipments expanded. Delivery times shortened and inventories continued to decline. Employment levels edged higher, though the average workweek was little changed. Input and selling price increases continued to moderate. Some pundits are making a big deal that this index remained in positive territory but overall manufacturing remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Unpacking Ukraine’s Gains And Losses At The NATO Summit
• Rising Seas, Rising Rates: The Impact Of Climate Change On Insurance
• Gasoline Prices Inch Up As Crude Soars
• Wheat Prices Soar As Russia Suspends Black Sea Grain Deal
• China’s Q2 Miss Sends Shivers Through Oil And Equities Markets
• Oil Demand Jumped By 3 Million Bpd In May To Near-Record Levels
• Dow rises for sixth straight day, closes at highest level in 2023: Live updates
• Solar and wind are set to produce a third of global electricity in 7 years. How to invest behind it
• Cotton: Secret Service Didn’t Even Talk To Hunter Biden About White House Cocaine
• Market Snapshot: Dow up 100 points, stocks set to extend last week’s gains ahead of busy week of earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.