Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 68 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.22%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.02%,
• Gold $1894 down $25,
• WTI crude oil settled at $94 up $3.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.612% up 0.054 points,
• USD index $106.70 up $0.47,
• Bitcoin $26,233 up $25

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August 2023 were up 3.0% year-over-year (down 0.5% inflation-adjusted) – blue and red lines respectively on the graph below. Most sectors were little changed from the previous month with civilian aircraft significantly down and defense spending significantly up.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Fusion Experiments Shatter Previous Energy Records
• Saudi Arabia Forms Joint Venture With Greece To Link Power Grids
• Bulgaria Pledges $2.7 Billion For Military Upgrade As Black Sea Tensions Rise
• $40B Deal With U.S. Companies Kickstarts Poland’s Nuclear Power Ambitions
• Government Shutdown Could Slow Down U.S. Clean Energy Rollout
• UAW again threatens to expand strikes at Detroit automakers if progress isn’t made by Friday
• 10-year Treasury yield reaches level not seen in more than 15 years
• Landmark marijuana financing bill clears big hurdle in the Senate
• US Shale Giant Agrees With JPMorgan: Oil Headed For $150

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The red was flashing on the stock market tickers today. It is finally dawning that high interest rates, a government shutdown, the potential economy (and industry) killing wage demands by the UAW, and many other smaller economic issues will continue to weigh heavier on corporate profits – and may end up contributing to a recession.

• The Dow closed down 388 points or 1.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.57%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.47%,
• Gold $1918 down $18.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 up $0.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.55% up 0.008 points,
• USD index $106.18 up $0.18,
• Bitcoin $26,246 down $50

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite home price index posted a year-over-year increase of 0.1%, improving from a loss of -1.2% in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp commented:

Home price gains across the country have generally been solid. Lower-priced homes are seeing stronger recovery given the lack of affordable inventory and more demand pressure put on that segment.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies remained high in August 2023 as 157 CEOs left their posts in the month. It is down 20% from the 197 CEO changes announced in July, and up 149% from the 63 CEOs who left their posts in August 2022, according to a report released Tuesday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved in September 2023. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in August to 5 in September. Each of its three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. As several of the other regional Fed manufacturing surveys broke into expansion this month – could manufacturing be coming out of its recession?

Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were up 5.8% year-over-year (significantly lower than the previous month). The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate. Still, if one considers the high mortgage rates, new home sales are stronger than one would expect.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined again in September 2023 to 103.0 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline. September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Hydrogen Economy Gets A Boost With Advanced Catalyst
• Copper Prices Stuck As Stockpiles Skyrocket
• Study Says EU Could Scale Blue Hydrogen Faster Than Green Alternative
• Russia’s Crude Oil Exports Drop Amid Terminal Maintenance
• Oil Prices Under Pressure As U.S. Dollar Strengthens
•  IEA: Net Zero Still Achievable If The World Slashes Fossil Fuel Demand
• Ford Halts Construction At $3.5-Billion EV Battery Plant In Michigan
• Target says it will close nine stores in major cities, citing violence and theft
• The Looming Economic Cauldron
• Musk Warns Biden-Backed 40% UAW Pay-Hike Risks Big 3 Bankruptcy (Again)

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 43 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.45%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.40%,
• Gold $1935 down $11.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.10,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.540% down 0.10 points,
• USD index $105.94 up $0.36,
• Bitcoin $26,531 up $101

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average edged down to –0.14 in August 2023 from –0.15 in July. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions.  I consider the CFNAI the best coincident economic indicator, and the 3 month moving average is used for economic forecasting as it removes the volatility of the monthly data. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70. Still, since the value is below zero, it means the economy is expanding below the historical trend rate of growth.

Growth in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey resumed in September 2023 with the production index rebounding nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of the year. The new orders sub-index pushed up 11 points to -5.2, a reading still indicative of falling demand though not at the pace seen in the past several months. The regional Fed surveys are volatile, and I have seen no indication yet that manufacturing is out of a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Armenia’s Western Pivot Sparks Unease In Moscow
• Chevron Getting Ready For New Oil Drilling In Venezuela
• Unprecedented Gold Hoarding By Central Banks Heralds Financial Sea Change
• The Spread Between Brent And WTI Has Aligned With Transatlantic Freight Costs
• ChatGPT can now ‘speak,’ listen and process images, OpenAI says
• Merck Covid drug linked to virus mutations that can spread between people, new study says
• Writers reach tentative deal with studios to end strike after nearly 150 days
• Bonds & Bullion Dumped, Dollar Jumps As Shutdown & Student-Loan Cliff Loo
• Government shutdown could leave thousands of federally backed mortgages in ‘limbo’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 107 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.09%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.23%,
• Gold $1,945 up $5.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.434% down 0.002 points,
• USD Index $105.60 down $0.002,
• Bitcoin $26,542 down $38,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -11 to 630 Canada unchanged 190

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil, Gas Drilling Slows To 19-Month Low In U.S.
• Detroit’s Auto Giants Reel As UAW Strikes Bite Hard
• Gas Production From Giant Groningen Field To Halt Completely On October 1
• A Potentially Bearish Signal For Oil Markets
• The U.S. Navy Is Reviving A Top Secret Surveillance Network
• Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis
• Two key Fed officials express support for keeping interest rates high
• Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
• VP Kamala Harris Becomes Biden’s ‘Gun Czar’ As War On Second Amendment Goes In Overdrive
• Amazon Prime Video content to start including ads next year

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 370 points or 1.08%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.82%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.64%,
• Gold $1,940 down $27.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.486% up 0.139 points,
• USD Index $105.39 up $0.270,
• Bitcoin $26,596 down $368,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed’s September 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey declined as indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,500 to 224,750. There is no indication of an economic slowdown in these unemployment claims.

Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged in the Northeast, and slipped in the South and West. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.

The National Association of Realtor’s existing home sales declined 0.7% month-over-month and down 15.3% year-over-year. Total housing inventory declined 14.1% from one year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $407,100, an increase of 3.9% from August 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way. Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run. The South had a lighter decline in sales from a year ago due to greater regional job growth since coming out of the pandemic lockdown.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July. The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023). Note that the authors of this index continue to project a recession but I have yet to see any recession indication in the broad economy inside the data I review. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year. The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Germany Makes New Energy Savings Measures Mandatory
• New BRICS Members Solidify The Bloc’s Renewable Leadership
• MBS To Fox: Saudi Arabia Will Get Nuclear Arms If Iran Does
• Russia Attacks Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Ahead Of Winter
• Russia Curbs Gasoline And Diesel Exports To Stabilize Domestic Prices
• ow tumbles more than 300 points to notch third day of losses amid fears of higher rates, government shutdown
• Here’s everything Microsoft announced at its Surface and Copilot event in New York
• Bitcoin sinks below $27,000 after Fed signals keeping rates higher for longer: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest level since 2007 as jobless claims decline
• Musk’s SpaceX Countersues DOJ, Says Case Over Refusal To Hire Refugees Is Unconstitutional
• Bitcoin Vs Ethereum: A Culture War Rooted In First Principles
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield carves out another 17-year high after hawkish Fed meeting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 77 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.53%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.94%,
• Gold $1,955 up $1.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.379% up 0.012 points,
• USD Index $105.40 up $0.200,
• Bitcoin $26,971 down $188,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Today the Federal Reserve decided NOT to raise the federal funds rate (blue dotted line on the graph below). Their meeting statement said in part:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

In a follow-up news conference, Fed Chair Powells stated:

We’re in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming. We want to see convincing evidence that we have reached the appropriate [federal funds rate] level, and we’re seeing progress and we welcome that. But, you know, we need to see more progress before we’ll be willing to reach that conclusion.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Despite Oil’s Rally, Fed Holds Off On Rate Hike
• Electric Dream On Pause? UK’s Fuel Car Ban Faces Delay
• Tandem Solar Cells Poised To Revolutionize Energy Market
• Oil Jumps As Crude Inventories Draw
• California Truckers Race To Buy Diesel Rigs Ahead Of New Zero-Emission Rule
• Fed declines to hike, but points to rates staying higher for longer
• Stocks slide as Fed signals it’s not done hiking rates, Nasdaq falls 1.5%: Live updates
• Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement
• U.S. will again offer free at-home Covid tests starting Monday
• Weekly mortgage demand increases, driven by a strange surge in refinancing
• Wall Street Reacts To The Fed’s “Confused” 2024 Hawkish Shock
• JPM Markets Desk: “Sentiment Is Turning Very Negative On The US Consumer”
• ond Report: 2-year Treasury yield ends at fresh 17-year high after Fed decision, Powell’s remarks

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 107 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.22%,
• Gold $1,953 down $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.17,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.365% up 0.046 points,
• USD Index $105.14 down $0.060,
• Bitcoin $27,180 up $377,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August 2023 were 2.7 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing starts in August were 14.8 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing completions in August were 3.8 percent above August 2022. Residential construction is in a recession except for completions which surprisingly has remained in positive growth (both permits and starts are down indicating there are fewer homes being built in the last 16 months – at some point, construction completions must start contracting IF the data is correct).

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tata Steel’s Port Talbot Set For £1.25 Billion Green Transformation
• High Fuel Costs Challenge Airline Profits After Busy Summer
• Exxon To Increase Oil Production In Nigeria
• Oil Prices Climb As Bullish News Continues To Mount
• Trans Mountain Expansion Set To Raise Crude Prices For Midwest Refiners
• Instacart closes up 12% in Nasdaq debut, after first-day rally sputters
• U.S. national debt hits $33 trillion for the first time
• Defensive stocks for worried investors to buy if upcoming threats rattle the market
• Outside the Box: Americans are working harder and making less. We need a new social safety net

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 6 points or 0.02%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.01%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.07%,
• Gold $1,954 up $8.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.95,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.313% down 0.009 points,
• USD Index $105.12 down $0.200,
• Bitcoin $26,834 up $331,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

40% of sea container imports come through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Container statistics are published weeks to months before import data is released by the government. For the month of August 2023, there was an improvement (imports only down 4% and exports only down 2%) but as you can see from the graph below – imports and exports are below their historical averages. Imports are normally a sign of how well the US economy is performing, and imports are saying the economy is weak. The quantity of imports could have been elevated by container ships from Asia to east coast ports rerouting cargo to the west coast due to congestion / delays in the Panama Canal.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Closes In On $95 Per Barrel, Hitting $100 In Some Markets
• $6 Billion In Iranian Oil Funds Unfrozen As Tehran Releases U.S. Prisoners
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise On Refinery Outages
• ChatGPT’s Surprising Environmental Footprint Revealed
• Striking unions impacting the economy at a level not seen in decades
• Stellantis could close 18 facilities under UAW deal — here are the full details of its latest offer
• S&P 500 closes little changed Monday as traders await Fed policy meeting: Live updates
• Goldman says iPhone demand outpacing supply, sees more than 20% upside for Apple shares
• Elon Musk says Twitter, now X, is moving to small monthly subscription and has 550 million users
• Moderna Plunges After Pfizer Sees Just 24% Of Americans Seeking Covid Boosters
• “How Do You Lose An F-35?”: US Military Can’t Find Stealth Jet After “Mishap”
• Bitcoin climbs above $27,000 for the first time since August
• Economic Report: UAW auto strike looms large for inflation and economy

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 289 points or 0.83%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.56%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.22%,
• Gold $1,944 up $11.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 up $0.96,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.328% up 0.038 points,
• USD Index $105.34 down $0.070,
• Bitcoin $26,405 down $279,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +9 to 641 Canada +8 to 190

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. import prices are down 3.0% year-over-year whilst export prices are down 5.5% year-over-year. This deflation was caused by over-aggressive price increases a year ago.

The September 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose twenty-one points to 1.9. Manufacturing has been in a recession. This index jumping 21 points in one month is not believable.

Industrial production increased 0.2 percent year-over-year in August 2021 – year -over-year growth in sub-components manufacturing, mining, and utilities rose -0.6, 3.9, and 1.2 year-over-year respectively. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.7 percent in August, in line with its long-run (1972–2022) average. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment inched down a scant 1.8 index points this month and has been essentially flat for the past two months. At 67.7 points, sentiment is currently about 35% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 but remains shy of the historical average reading of 86.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Yen’s Dramatic Slide Triggers Unexpected Gold Rush In Japan
• U.S. Drilling Activity Ticks Up As Oil Prices Rise
• Gas Markets Stabilize As Freeport LNG Roars Back To Full Power
• Historic Strike Hits Big Three Automakers Hard
• The Oil Price Rally Is Fueling Inflation Concerns
• Dow sheds nearly 300 points Friday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffer second straight week of losses: Live updates
• Uranium Prices Hit A 12-Year High
• Futures Movers: Oil futures mark a new high for the year, up a third straight week
• Commodities Corner: Consumers take notice as inflation bites and oil prices top $90 a barrel
• Chip-equipment stocks drop following reported TSMC setback, but analysts see buying opportunity

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 332 points or 0.96%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.81%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.84%,
• Gold $1,931 down $1.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $1.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.290% up 0.042 points,
• USD Index $105.37 up $0.600,
• Bitcoin $26,663 up $468,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2023 were up 2.5% (blue line on the graph below) above August 2022 – up 0.9% year-over-year inflation-adjusted (red line on the graph below). It was gasoline sales that accounted for the modest increase year-over-year over last month.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August 2023 (blue line on the graph below). In August, 80 percent of the rise in final demand prices is attributable to a 2.0 percent jump in the index for final demand goods (green line on the graph below). For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.0 percent, the largest advance since moving up 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in April. I expect inflation pressures to grow through the rest of the year.

In the week ending September 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 229,250 to 229,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Future Of Lithium-ion Battery Recycling
• European Central Bank Surprises Markets With Rate Hike
• Rising Gasoline Prices Push August Consumer Price Index Higher
• OPEC Slams The IEA Over Peak Fossil Fuel Demand Claims
• Dow jumps 300 points for best day since early August as Arm debut revives IPO market hopes: Live updates
• Everything you need to know about UAW’s targeted strike plans – and possible lockouts
• Hunter Biden indicted on firearms charges
• SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son says AI-fueled technology can surpass human intelligence ‘big time’
• August wholesale inflation rises 0.7%, hotter than expected, but core prices in check
• Manhattan median rent remains at record high of nearly $4,400 a month
• Dollar hits 6-month high after data, ECB announcement
• Market Extra: Triple witching day: analysts brace for volatility as $3.4 trillion in stock options set to expire Friday

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.