Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 107 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.09%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.23%,
• Gold $1,945 up $5.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.434% down 0.002 points,
• USD Index $105.60 down $0.002,
• Bitcoin $26,542 down $38,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -11 to 630 Canada unchanged 190

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil, Gas Drilling Slows To 19-Month Low In U.S.
• Detroit’s Auto Giants Reel As UAW Strikes Bite Hard
• Gas Production From Giant Groningen Field To Halt Completely On October 1
• A Potentially Bearish Signal For Oil Markets
• The U.S. Navy Is Reviving A Top Secret Surveillance Network
• Credit card losses are rising at the fastest pace since the Great Financial Crisis
• Two key Fed officials express support for keeping interest rates high
• Stock market weakness could continue in week ahead as looming government shutdown adds to fears
• VP Kamala Harris Becomes Biden’s ‘Gun Czar’ As War On Second Amendment Goes In Overdrive
• Amazon Prime Video content to start including ads next year

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 370 points or 1.08%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.82%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.64%,
• Gold $1,940 down $27.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.486% up 0.139 points,
• USD Index $105.39 up $0.270,
• Bitcoin $26,596 down $368,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed’s September 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey declined as indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments returned to negative territory after turning positive in August. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

In the week ending September 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 224,500 to 224,750. There is no indication of an economic slowdown in these unemployment claims.

Existing-home sales moved lower in August, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Among the four major U.S. regions, sales improved in the Midwest, were unchanged in the Northeast, and slipped in the South and West. All four regions recorded year-over-year sales declines.

The National Association of Realtor’s existing home sales declined 0.7% month-over-month and down 15.3% year-over-year. Total housing inventory declined 14.1% from one year ago. The median existing-home price for all housing types in August was $407,100, an increase of 3.9% from August 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Home sales have been stable for several months, neither rising nor falling in any meaningful way. Mortgage rate changes will have a big impact over the short run, while job gains will have a steady, positive impact over the long run. The South had a lighter decline in sales from a year ago due to greater regional job growth since coming out of the pandemic lockdown.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in August 2023 to 105.4 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.3 percent in July. The LEI is down 3.8 percent over the six-month period between February and August 2023—little changed from its 3.9 percent contraction over the previous six months (August 2022 to February 2023). Note that the authors of this index continue to project a recession but I have yet to see any recession indication in the broad economy inside the data I review. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

With August’s decline, the US Leading Economic Index has now fallen for nearly a year and a half straight, indicating the economy is heading into a challenging growth period and possible recession over the next year. The leading index continued to be negatively impacted in August by weak new orders, deteriorating consumer expectations of business conditions, high interest rates, and tight credit conditions. All these factors suggest that going forward economic activity probably will decelerate and experience a brief but mild contraction. The Conference Board forecasts real GDP will grow by 2.2 percent in 2023, and then fall to 0.8 percent in 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Germany Makes New Energy Savings Measures Mandatory
• New BRICS Members Solidify The Bloc’s Renewable Leadership
• MBS To Fox: Saudi Arabia Will Get Nuclear Arms If Iran Does
• Russia Attacks Ukraine’s Energy Infrastructure Ahead Of Winter
• Russia Curbs Gasoline And Diesel Exports To Stabilize Domestic Prices
• ow tumbles more than 300 points to notch third day of losses amid fears of higher rates, government shutdown
• Here’s everything Microsoft announced at its Surface and Copilot event in New York
• Bitcoin sinks below $27,000 after Fed signals keeping rates higher for longer: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield hits its highest level since 2007 as jobless claims decline
• Musk’s SpaceX Countersues DOJ, Says Case Over Refusal To Hire Refugees Is Unconstitutional
• Bitcoin Vs Ethereum: A Culture War Rooted In First Principles
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield carves out another 17-year high after hawkish Fed meeting

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 77 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.53%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.94%,
• Gold $1,955 up $1.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.379% up 0.012 points,
• USD Index $105.40 up $0.200,
• Bitcoin $26,971 down $188,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Today the Federal Reserve decided NOT to raise the federal funds rate (blue dotted line on the graph below). Their meeting statement said in part:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have slowed in recent months but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated. The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain. The Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks. The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent.

In a follow-up news conference, Fed Chair Powells stated:

We’re in a position to proceed carefully in determining the extent of additional policy firming. We want to see convincing evidence that we have reached the appropriate [federal funds rate] level, and we’re seeing progress and we welcome that. But, you know, we need to see more progress before we’ll be willing to reach that conclusion.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Despite Oil’s Rally, Fed Holds Off On Rate Hike
• Electric Dream On Pause? UK’s Fuel Car Ban Faces Delay
• Tandem Solar Cells Poised To Revolutionize Energy Market
• Oil Jumps As Crude Inventories Draw
• California Truckers Race To Buy Diesel Rigs Ahead Of New Zero-Emission Rule
• Fed declines to hike, but points to rates staying higher for longer
• Stocks slide as Fed signals it’s not done hiking rates, Nasdaq falls 1.5%: Live updates
• Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement
• U.S. will again offer free at-home Covid tests starting Monday
• Weekly mortgage demand increases, driven by a strange surge in refinancing
• Wall Street Reacts To The Fed’s “Confused” 2024 Hawkish Shock
• JPM Markets Desk: “Sentiment Is Turning Very Negative On The US Consumer”
• ond Report: 2-year Treasury yield ends at fresh 17-year high after Fed decision, Powell’s remarks

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 107 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.23%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.22%,
• Gold $1,953 down $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.17,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.365% up 0.046 points,
• USD Index $105.14 down $0.060,
• Bitcoin $27,180 up $377,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in August 2023 were 2.7 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing starts in August were 14.8 percent below August 2022. Privately‐owned housing completions in August were 3.8 percent above August 2022. Residential construction is in a recession except for completions which surprisingly has remained in positive growth (both permits and starts are down indicating there are fewer homes being built in the last 16 months – at some point, construction completions must start contracting IF the data is correct).

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Tata Steel’s Port Talbot Set For £1.25 Billion Green Transformation
• High Fuel Costs Challenge Airline Profits After Busy Summer
• Exxon To Increase Oil Production In Nigeria
• Oil Prices Climb As Bullish News Continues To Mount
• Trans Mountain Expansion Set To Raise Crude Prices For Midwest Refiners
• Instacart closes up 12% in Nasdaq debut, after first-day rally sputters
• U.S. national debt hits $33 trillion for the first time
• Defensive stocks for worried investors to buy if upcoming threats rattle the market
• Outside the Box: Americans are working harder and making less. We need a new social safety net

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 6 points or 0.02%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.01%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.07%,
• Gold $1,954 up $8.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 up $0.95,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.313% down 0.009 points,
• USD Index $105.12 down $0.200,
• Bitcoin $26,834 up $331,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

40% of sea container imports come through the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Container statistics are published weeks to months before import data is released by the government. For the month of August 2023, there was an improvement (imports only down 4% and exports only down 2%) but as you can see from the graph below – imports and exports are below their historical averages. Imports are normally a sign of how well the US economy is performing, and imports are saying the economy is weak. The quantity of imports could have been elevated by container ships from Asia to east coast ports rerouting cargo to the west coast due to congestion / delays in the Panama Canal.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Closes In On $95 Per Barrel, Hitting $100 In Some Markets
• $6 Billion In Iranian Oil Funds Unfrozen As Tehran Releases U.S. Prisoners
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Rise On Refinery Outages
• ChatGPT’s Surprising Environmental Footprint Revealed
• Striking unions impacting the economy at a level not seen in decades
• Stellantis could close 18 facilities under UAW deal — here are the full details of its latest offer
• S&P 500 closes little changed Monday as traders await Fed policy meeting: Live updates
• Goldman says iPhone demand outpacing supply, sees more than 20% upside for Apple shares
• Elon Musk says Twitter, now X, is moving to small monthly subscription and has 550 million users
• Moderna Plunges After Pfizer Sees Just 24% Of Americans Seeking Covid Boosters
• “How Do You Lose An F-35?”: US Military Can’t Find Stealth Jet After “Mishap”
• Bitcoin climbs above $27,000 for the first time since August
• Economic Report: UAW auto strike looms large for inflation and economy

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 289 points or 0.83%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.56%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.22%,
• Gold $1,944 up $11.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 up $0.96,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.328% up 0.038 points,
• USD Index $105.34 down $0.070,
• Bitcoin $26,405 down $279,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +9 to 641 Canada +8 to 190

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. import prices are down 3.0% year-over-year whilst export prices are down 5.5% year-over-year. This deflation was caused by over-aggressive price increases a year ago.

The September 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey rose twenty-one points to 1.9. Manufacturing has been in a recession. This index jumping 21 points in one month is not believable.

Industrial production increased 0.2 percent year-over-year in August 2021 – year -over-year growth in sub-components manufacturing, mining, and utilities rose -0.6, 3.9, and 1.2 year-over-year respectively. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.7 percent in August, in line with its long-run (1972–2022) average. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment inched down a scant 1.8 index points this month and has been essentially flat for the past two months. At 67.7 points, sentiment is currently about 35% above the all-time historic low reached in June of 2022 but remains shy of the historical average reading of 86.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Yen’s Dramatic Slide Triggers Unexpected Gold Rush In Japan
• U.S. Drilling Activity Ticks Up As Oil Prices Rise
• Gas Markets Stabilize As Freeport LNG Roars Back To Full Power
• Historic Strike Hits Big Three Automakers Hard
• The Oil Price Rally Is Fueling Inflation Concerns
• Dow sheds nearly 300 points Friday, S&P 500 and Nasdaq suffer second straight week of losses: Live updates
• Uranium Prices Hit A 12-Year High
• Futures Movers: Oil futures mark a new high for the year, up a third straight week
• Commodities Corner: Consumers take notice as inflation bites and oil prices top $90 a barrel
• Chip-equipment stocks drop following reported TSMC setback, but analysts see buying opportunity

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 332 points or 0.96%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.81%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.84%,
• Gold $1,931 down $1.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $1.81,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.290% up 0.042 points,
• USD Index $105.37 up $0.600,
• Bitcoin $26,663 up $468,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2023 were up 2.5% (blue line on the graph below) above August 2022 – up 0.9% year-over-year inflation-adjusted (red line on the graph below). It was gasoline sales that accounted for the modest increase year-over-year over last month.

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose 1.6 percent for the 12 months ended in August 2023 (blue line on the graph below). In August, 80 percent of the rise in final demand prices is attributable to a 2.0 percent jump in the index for final demand goods (green line on the graph below). For the 12 months ended in August, prices for final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 3.0 percent, the largest advance since moving up 3.4 percent for the 12 months ended in April. I expect inflation pressures to grow through the rest of the year.

In the week ending September 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,500, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 229,250 to 229,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Future Of Lithium-ion Battery Recycling
• European Central Bank Surprises Markets With Rate Hike
• Rising Gasoline Prices Push August Consumer Price Index Higher
• OPEC Slams The IEA Over Peak Fossil Fuel Demand Claims
• Dow jumps 300 points for best day since early August as Arm debut revives IPO market hopes: Live updates
• Everything you need to know about UAW’s targeted strike plans – and possible lockouts
• Hunter Biden indicted on firearms charges
• SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son says AI-fueled technology can surpass human intelligence ‘big time’
• August wholesale inflation rises 0.7%, hotter than expected, but core prices in check
• Manhattan median rent remains at record high of nearly $4,400 a month
• Dollar hits 6-month high after data, ECB announcement
• Market Extra: Triple witching day: analysts brace for volatility as $3.4 trillion in stock options set to expire Friday

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 70 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.29%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.12%,
• Gold $1,931 down $0.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 down $0.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.254% down 0.010 points,
• USD Index $104.76 up $0.050,
• Bitcoin $26,160 up $74,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.7% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). The index for gasoline was the largest contributor to the monthly all-items increase, accounting for over half of the increase. Also contributing to the August monthly increase was continued advancement in the shelter index, which rose for the 40th consecutive month. The index for all items less food and energy declined to 4.4% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The increase in the CPI was expected and should continue for most of the year.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China And U.S. Dominate Global Seaport Trade
• Headline Inflation Up On ‘Huge’ Hike In Energy Prices
• Over 5,000 Feared Dead In Storm Daniel As Libya Reopens Ports
• Faster, Cleaner Lithium Extraction Technique Could Boost Clean Energy Future
• Builds In Crude, Fuel Inventories Weigh On Oil Prices
• Slumbering U.S. Supervolcano Holds $1.5 Trillion Worth Of Lithium
• Dow slips a second day after August’s slightly hotter core inflation reading: Live updates
• Here’s every major reveal from the Detroit Auto Show
• Google is cutting hundreds of jobs in its recruiting organization
• Marvel visual effects artists unanimously vote to unionize as Hollywood strikes rage on
• Tipping in restaurants falls for the first time in years. Blame ‘tip fatigue’
• The Fed Is Losing Money And You’re Going To Foot The Bill
• Market Snapshot: Dow falls 100 points after higher-than-expected August inflation report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 16 points or 0.05%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.04%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.57%,
• Gold $1,936 down $11.5,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 up $1.71,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.266% down 0.022 points,
• USD Index $104.73 up $0.160,
• Bitcoin $26,097 up $1,092,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index decreased 0.6 of a point in August to 91.3, the 20^th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. 23% of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important business problem, up two points from last month. I believe that Main Street is in a recession, and the index value for small businesses supports this opinion. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

With small business owners’ views about future sales growth and business conditions discouraging, owners want to hire and make money now from strong consumer spending. Inflation and the worker shortage continue to be the biggest obstacles for Main Street.

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for July 2023 show U.S. home prices rebounded year over year in July, increasing to 2.5% and following two months of 1.6% annual gains. The annual reacceleration reflects six consecutive monthly gains, which drove prices about 5% higher compared to the February bottom. The 11 states that saw home price declines were all in the West, but since many of those markets continue to struggle with inventory shortages, that trend may be short-lived, and recent buyer competition will causes prices to heat up again. CoreLogic projects that all states that saw year-over-year losses in July will begin posting gains by October of this year.  Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic stated:

Annual home price growth regained momentum in July, which mostly reflects strong appreciation from earlier this year. That said, high mortgage rates have slowed additional price surges, with monthly increases returning to regular seasonal averages. In other words, home prices are still growing but are in line with historic seasonal expectations. Nevertheless, the projection of prolonged higher mortgage rates has dampened price forecasts over the next year, particularly in less-affordable markets. But as there is still an extreme inventory shortage in the Western U.S., home prices in some of those markets should see relatively more upward pressure.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Discovers Lithium Deposit Bigger Than Bolivia’s Salt Flats
• Chevron To Be Majority Owner Of World’s Largest Hydrogen Production Facility
• Oil Prices Soar To 10-Month High
• Renewables Are Gaining Ground, But Coal Is Still King
• Here’s everything Apple just announced at its 2023 event: iPhone 15 models, new Apple Watch, new AirPods
• Nasdaq closes lower by 1% Tuesday as Apple slides and tech suffers, Oracle sheds 13%: Live updates
• Sen. Blumenthal plans action against telemarketing scams masquerading as political, charitable causes
• Oracle stock is poised for its steepest drop since 2002 on weak revenue guidance
• US Real Household Incomes Slide For 3rd Year In A Row As White Incomes Tumble; Blacks, Hispanics Gain
• 10Y Treasury Auction Prices On The Screws At Highest Yield Since Nov 2007
• 8 commodities stocks touched their 52-week high, gaining up to 40% in a month
• Market Snapshot: Stocks fall after Apple unveils iPhone 15, with U.S. inflation data looming

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 87 points or 0.25%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.14%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.67%,
• Gold $1,946 up $2.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $87 down $0.31,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.288% up 0.032 points,
• USD Index $104.54 down $0.550,
• Bitcoin $24,995 down $780,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• China’s Influence In Central Asia Continues To Expand
• Border Firefights Highlight Strained Pakistan-Taliban Relations
• New Study Debunks Heat Pump Propaganda
• Hurricane Season Stirs Supply Chain Concerns For U.S. Shippers
• Russia’s Trade Nears Prewar Levels As It Defies G7 Sanctions
• Jamie Dimon says it’s a ‘huge mistake’ to think economy will boom with so many risks out there
• Stocks notch back-to-back wins Monday, Nasdaq pops 1% as tech shares rebound: Live updates
• FDA approves updated Covid vaccines from Pfizer and Moderna as hospitalizations rise
• Tesla shares soar 10% after Morgan Stanley upgrade
• Bet against America’s love for junk food? Morgan Stanley sees tough times ahead for snack stocks like Hostess
• Irrational exuberance! Last lot of new favorite mid, smallcap stocks in dubious category: Kotak Equities
• Market Snapshot: Dow heads for third day of gains ahead of coming inflation, retail-sales data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.