Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 105 points or 0.32%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.43%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.43%, (Low 4,187: 4,200 = critical support level)
• Gold $1,992 up $6.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $85 up $1.52,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.942% up 0.102 points,
• USD Index $106.53 up $0.260,
• Bitcoin $34,731 up $936,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in September 2023 were 33.9% above September 2022 (blue line on the graph below). The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2023 was down 12.3% year-over-year. (red line on the graph below). The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 435,000. This represents a supply of 6.9 months at the current sales rate. New home sales in 2023 remain relatively strong as house sizes have shrunk to maintain affordability.

source: NAHB

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Hyperloop Technology Gains Momentum With New Freight System
• Libya’s Eastern Govt Calls For Oil Export Embargo For Israel Supporters
• Tensions Escalate As Russia Steps Away From Nuclear Treaty Commitment
• Oil Market Blind-sided By Israel’s War On Hamas
• Oil Ticks Lower On Inventory Build
• S&P 500 falls more than 1% to close below 4,200 for first time since May, Nasdaq notches worst day since February
• World’s Oldest Central Bank Seeking $7 Billion Bailout After Massive Bond Losses
• Mexican Media Magnate Says ‘Buy Bitcoin, Sell Bonds, Reject Inflation’
• Bond Report: Treasury yields end at some of 2023’s highest levels ahead of GDP, inflation data
• Market Snapshot: Nasdaq on pace to enter a correction as tech shares lead U.S. stocks lower after mixed earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 205 points or 0.62%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.93%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.73%, (Low 4,227)
• Gold $1,983 down $4.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $84 down $1.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.819% down 0.019 points,
• USD Index $106.23 up $0.700,
• Bitcoin $33,794 up $2,389,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing activity changed little in October 2023 with the composite manufacturing index edging down from 5 in September to 3 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments edged up from 7 to 9, new orders fell from 3 to −4, and employment remained at 7. Overall, the Regional Fed surveys have been in negative territory for well over one year – and little indication yet this trend will change.

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach – which handles 40% of the USA container traffic – significantly improved in September 2023. Imports increased 17% year-over-year whilst exports increased 16% year-over-year. This was the first year-over-year gain for imports in over one year. This may be a good Christmas for retailers this year based on imports.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Freight Broker Bankruptcies Loom As Debt Woes Persist
• Lithium Cermanic Battery Could Reduce Reliance On Critical Materials
• United States Oil ETF Is Once Again World’s Largest Oil Fund
• Toyota’s Solid-State Battery Boasts 745 Miles On A 10 Minute Charge
• Halliburton Q3 Earnings Rise Amid Strong Drilling Demand
• Jamie Dimon rips central banks for being ‘100% dead wrong’ on economic forecasts
• Bitcoin just broke above a key resistance level. Here’s what chart analysts say happens next
• Is The 6% Fee For Selling A House About To Get Trashed?
• Car workers’ strike costing GM $200m a week

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 191 points or 0.58%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.17%, (Low 4217)
• Gold $1,993 down $11.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $86 down $2.18,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.857% down 0.067 points,
• USD Index $105.64 down $0.520,
• Bitcoin $31,367 up $1,521,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

My favorite coincident indicator of the economy – The Chicago Fed National Activity Index three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, moved up to a neutral value in September 2023 from –0.14 in August. This means the economy expanded at its historical rate of growth. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the
index increased, with two categories making positive contributions in September whilst the other two remained in negative territory.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• How Australia Became The World’s Most Volatile Power Market
• Rising Interest Rates Pose Challenges For Gold And Oil
• No More Oil Hedging For Hess After $53B Chevron Acquisition
• German Coal Plants May Have To Remain On Standby Longer Than Planned
• Oil Prices Slide As Diplomatic Efforts Bear Fruit In Gaza
• Bill Ackman covers bet against Treasurys, says ‘too much risk in the world’ to bet against bonds
• Intel stock drops on report Nvidia is working on an Arm-based PC chip
• Nasdaq snaps four days of losses as 10-year Treasury yield retreats from 5%: Live updates
• ‘Marvel’s Spider-Man 2′ video game breaks PlayStation Studios’ 24-hour sales record
• “Worse Is To Come” – Home Sales Slide Far From Over As Goldman Sees “Sustained Higher Mortgage Rates”

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 287 points or 0.86%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.53%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.26%,  (Low 4224)
• Gold $1,994 up $13.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 down $0.35,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.918% down 0.007 points,
• USD Index $106.18 down $0.080,
• Bitcoin $29,548 up $776,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 624 Canada +5 to 198

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Aluminum Prices Swing Amid U.S.-EU Tariff Talks
• Aluminium Demand Gets Boost From Backlog In Aircraft Production
• Top U.S. Oil ETF Gets Largest Inflows Since 2020 As Oil Prices Surge
• The U.S. Is Running Out Of Ways To Influence Oil Prices
• Dow closes nearly 300 points lower after 10-year Treasury yield tops 5% for the first time since 2007: Live updates
• Nike is among the most overbought stocks in the S&P 500. Here are the others
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: SolarEdge, Regions Financial, Merck and more
• As mortgage rates hit 8%, home ‘affordability is incredibly difficult,’ economist says
• “Al Capone Style”: Musk Reveals “We Unloaded Entire Drum of Tommy Gun” Into Cybertuck
• Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks drop, putting S&P 500 on track for worst week in a month after rise in Treasury yields, oil prices

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 251 points or 0.75%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.96%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.85%,
• Gold $1,988 up $20.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $2.16,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.977% up 0.005 points,
• USD Index $106.21 down $0.350,
• Bitcoin $28,768 up $502,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The October 2023 Philadelphia Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows general activity remained negative, while new orders and shipments were positive but low. The employment index turned positive, and both price indexes indicate overall increases in prices. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

In the week ending October 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 206,250 to 206,750.

Existing home sales in September 2023 declined 15.4% from one year ago (blue line on the graph below). The median existing-home sales price grew 2.8% from one year ago to $394,300 but has been declining for the last three months (red line on the graph below). The inventory of unsold existing homes is equivalent to 3.4 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.7 percent in September 2023 to 104.6 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.5 percent in August. The LEI is down 3.4 percent over the six-month period between March and September 2023, an improvement from its 4.6 percent contraction over the previous six months (September 2022 to March 2023). Note that the Conference Board is still forecasting a recession. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The LEI for the US fell again in September, marking a year and a half of consecutive monthly declines since April 2022. In September, negative or flat contributions from nine of the index’s ten components more than offset fewer initial claims for unemployment insurance. Although the six-month growth rate in the LEI is somewhat less negative, and the recession signal did not sound, it still signals risk of economic weakness ahead. So far, the US economy has shown considerable resilience despite pressures from rising interest rates and high inflation. Nonetheless, The Conference Board forecasts that this trend will not be sustained for much longer, and a shallow recession is likely in the first half of 2024.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Groundbreaking Dual-Purpose Batteries Store Energy And Capture CO2
• Drone Attacks Syrian Gas Field as Israel Conflict Escalates
• Most Americans Wouldn’t Buy An Electric Vehicle
• Musk Expresses Uncertainty About Cybertruck’s Production And Profitability
• Venezuela Could Boost Oil Production By 25% After U.S. Eases Sanctions
• Powell says inflation is still too high and lower economic growth is likely needed to bring it down
• U.S. State Department issues ‘worldwide caution’ alert as tensions in the Middle East soar
• Dow closes more than 200 points lower as 10-year Treasury yield nears 5%: Live updates
• 10-year Treasury yield hovers near 16-year high as Powell talks inflation, economy
• Oil Surges After Report US Destroyer Shoots Down Multiple Houthi Missiles
• Economic Report: Defense spending boosts economy as U.S. mulls more aid for Ukraine and Israel

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 333 points or 0.98%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.62%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.34%,
• Gold $1,964 up $28.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $1.62,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.911% up 0.064 points,
• USD Index $106.58 up $0.330,
• Bitcoin $28,242 down $300,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in September 2023 were down 7.2% year-over-year. Privately‐owned housing starts in September were also down 7.2% year-over-year.  Privately‐owned housing completions were up 1.0% year-over-year. Residential construction remains in the doldrums.

The October 18, 2023 Beige Book shows most Districts indicated little to no change in economic activity since the September report. Consumer spending was mixed, especially among general retailers and auto dealers, due to differences in prices and product offerings. Tourism activity continued to improve, although some Districts reported slight slowing in consumer travel, and a few Districts noted an uptick in business travel. Banking contacts reported slight to modest declines in loan demand. Consumer credit quality was generally described as stable or healthy, with delinquency rates still historically low but slightly increasing. Real estate conditions were little changed and the inventory of homes for sale remained low. Manufacturing activity was mixed, although contacts across multiple Districts noted an improving outlook for the sector. The near-term outlook for the economy was generally described as stable or having slightly weaker growth. Expectations of firms for which the holiday shopping season is an important driver of sales were mixed. [This report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis based on information collected on or before October 6, 2023. This document summarizes comments received from contacts outside the Federal Reserve System and is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials.]

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• India Looks To Green Hydrogen For Steelmaking As Coking Coal Costs Rise
• Energy Remains Top Priority In China’s $1 Trillion Belt And Road Initiative
• Oil Jumps Higher On Inventory Draws
• Rising Rates, Geopolitical Tensions, And Debt Maturities Create Risky Mix
• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate just hit 8% for the first time since 2000 as Treasury yields soar
• Fed Chair Powell to deliver key speech Thursday. Here’s what to expect
• Rite Aid lost more than $1 billion in months before bankruptcy filing
• Beige Book Find “Little Change” As Outlook Turn Weaker But “Recession” Mentions Tumble
• Inflation: Milk, cheese and egg prices fall as petrol rises
• The Fed: Powell might be a bit more hawkish than his Fed colleagues on Thursday
• Market Snapshot: Dow falls almost 300 points with Treasury yields near 16-year highs, tech earnings ahead

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 13 points or 0.04%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.25%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.01%,
• Gold $1,936 up $1.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $87 up $0.55,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.838% up 0.130 points,
• USD Index $106.19 down $0.050,
• Bitcoin $28,525 up $57,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Industrial production increased in September 2023 0.1% year-over-year – the three industrial production components manufacturing (red line on the graph below), utilities (green line on the graph below), and mining (orange line on the graph below) increased -0.8%, 2.0%, and 3.4% respectively year-over-year. Overall the manufacturing component remains in a recession and does not indicate an improving trend – and manufacturing represents approximately 20% of the economy.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September 2023 were up 3.4% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below – unadjusted data). If one adjusts for inflation, retail and food sales were up 1.5% (red line on the graph below). This year-over-year growth rate is similar to last month thereby showing almost no acceleration month-over-month. Please do not be fooled by the bullshit reporting throwing out “Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, more than twice what economists had expected, and close to a revised 0.8% bump in August, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.” There is no resilience of shoppers in the U.S. considering that gas stations are over 100% of the increase in spending year-over-year.

Several economic indicators suggest that while the labor market remains tight, consumers and businesses are approaching the end of the year with caution. In a new survey, 46% of companies expect a recession, with 24% actively planning for one. That number jumps to 52% for companies with more than 5,000 employees, according to new survey results released Wednesday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows annual U.S. single-family rent growth eased again in August 2023 but renters are still feeling the pinch. The average American renter household spends about 40% of its income on housing costs, with lower-income tenants bearing much of the brunt of inflation. The SFRI’s low tier saw the largest year-over-year rental cost gain in August (up by 4.2%), while the high tier registered a 2.4% annual increase. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic added:

While annual single-family rent growth has returned to a moderate pace, more than three years of substantial increases will have a lasting impact on tenants’ budgets. Single-family rents grew by 30% since February 2020, and small drops in some areas barely put a dent in the overall, cumulative increase. For example, even though rents in the Miami metro area have declined by 0.5% since August 2022, they are still 51% higher than they were before the pandemic began.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• EV Battery Costs Could Surge By 22%
• Goldman’s Grim Forecast: Shipping Industry Faces Prolonged Downturn
• Russian Oil Shipping Rates Jump As The U.S. Sanctions Price Cap Evaders
• Oil Markets Remain On Edge As Biden Heads To Israel
• Homebuilder sentiment drops to 10-month low, as mortgage rates soar
• S&P 500 closes little changed Tuesday as Treasury yields pop on hot retail sales data: Live updates
• Retail sales rose 0.7% in September, much stronger than estimate
• Wages overtake inflation for first time in nearly two years
• Market Extra: ‘Bond math’ shows traders bold enough to bet on Treasurys could reap dazzling returns with little risk
• 5 charts that show how the housing market crashed and burned in 18 months
• Shares of bankrupt Rite Aid plunge despite meme-stock chatter

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 314 points or 0.93%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.20%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.06%,
• Gold $1,932 down $9.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $87 down $0.87,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.706% up 0.079 points,
• USD Index $106.19 down $0.450,
• Bitcoin $28,425 up $1,391,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Business activity edged lower in New York State, according to firms responding to the October 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell seven points to -4.6. New orders fell slightly, while shipments were little changed. Last month’s modestly positive report should be ignored. Manufacturing remains in a recession. The New York Fed is the first district to report on manufacturing for October.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Big Oil Shares Up As Israel-Hamas Conflict Intensifies
• Glut Of Synthetic Diamonds Sparks Trouble For Lab-Grown Producers
• Indonesia Eyes “Critical Mineral Agreement” With U.S. For Nickel Exports
• Saudi Arabia’s Crude Oil Exports Slumped To 28-Month Low In August
• Meta’s unique approach to developing AI puzzles Wall Street, but techies love it
• Stocks close higher, Dow rallies 300 points as optimism over earnings outweighs higher rates: Live updates
• Israel-Hamas war live updates: Blinken meets with Israeli president, promises U.S. support; Gaza-Egypt border still closed
• Trump hit with partial gag order in DC elections case, barred from publicly targeting Jack Smith, potential witnesses
• 53% of Gen Z see high cost of living as a barrier to financial success. They’re ‘buckling down,’ expert says
• Moderna’s stock slides to three-year low as co-founder sells more shares

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 39 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.23%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.50%, (low 4,328)
• Gold $1,941 up $58.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $4.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.623% down 0.088 points,
• USD Index $106.62 up $0.030,
• Bitcoin $26,758 up $45,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 622 Canada +13 to 193

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Export and import prices continue to deflate. Prices for U.S. imports declined 1.7 percent for the year ending in September 2023, whilst U.S. exports decreased 4.1 percent over the past year. This makes some sense as international trade is flat.

University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment fell back about 7% this October following two consecutive months of very little change. Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%. However, long-run expected business conditions are little changed, suggesting that consumers believe the current worsening in economic conditions will not persist. Nearly all demographic groups posted setbacks in sentiment, reflecting the continued weight of high prices.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• JPMorgan CEO Dimon: World Is Facing Most Dangerous Time In Decades
• U.S. Oil Drillers Add 4 Rigs, Brent Crude Hits $90
• The U.S. Allocates $7 Billion Of Grants To Hydrogen Production Hubs
• Desperate And Incompetent: Hamas May Have Acted Alone
• Oil Prices Rally As The U.S. Enforces Sanctions On Russian Exports
• Israel-Hamas war live updates: Civilians scramble to flee north Gaza ahead of expected Israeli ground offensive
• S&P 500 closes lower on Friday, but notches second straight positive week: Live updates
• Pharmacy staff from Walgreens, other chains could stage nationwide walkout and rallies in coming weeks
• Crypto’s role in the Israel-Hamas war comes under scrutiny: CNBC Crypto World
• Economists Warn Of “Bigger” Middle East War, But Yellen Downplays Its Economic Impact
• Market Snapshot: Dow turns lower as U.S. stocks fall amid Middle East tensions
• Bond Report: 10-, 30-year yields have biggest weekly drops in months as investors flock to safety on Middle East tensions

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 174 points or 0.51%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.63%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.62%, (low 4,325)
• Gold $1,882 down $5.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $0.07,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.709% up 0.114 points,
• USD Index $106.57 up $0.750,
• Bitcoin $26,709 down $55,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

---

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

---

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose over the last 12 months 3.7% (blue line on the graph below) whilst the CPI-U less food and energy rose 4.1% over the last 12 months (red line on the graph below). I was expecting higher numbers and the BLS suggests inflation levels are being sustained by higher shelter and gasoline.

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 206,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 208,750 to 209,250.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Oil Defies Odds, Races Towards Annual Production Record
• UAW’s Standoff With Big Three Automakers Intensifies
• Oil Moves Down On Massive Inventory Build
• France Tightens Energy-Saving Measures To Avoid Another Crisis
• Getting to 2% inflation won’t be easy. This is what will need to happen, and it might not be pretty
• Dow closes more than 150 points lower as inflation data reignites interest rate fears: Live updates
• Bitcoin’s resilience above $25,000 is a ‘silver lining’ in grim crypto market, says Wolfe Research
• Israel-Hamas war live updates: Britain orders deployment of military assets to Mediterranean; at least 27 Americans killed
• Mortgage rates near 8%, an ‘inventory crisis’: Homebuyers face a ‘tricky’ market, expert says
• Household Budgets Are “On Thin Ice”
• Mark Hulbert: The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry — but now that’s crumbling

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.