Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 288 points or 0.87%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.60%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.18%, (low 4,220)
• Gold $1,845 up $12.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.57,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.795% up 0.079 points,
• USD Index $106.07 down $0.260,
• Bitcoin $27,980 up $484,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 619 Canada -11 to 180

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The markets were hoping for small employment gains in expectation that the Fed would stop raising the federal funds rate but instead, the total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September 2023 with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8%. The largest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (96,000); government (73,000); and health care (65,900). Any job gains over 150,000 is considered enough to provide jobs to those newly entering the workforce. The September employment gain was the second largest of 2023.

Interestingly, the household survey of the employment report showed only 90,000 employment gains against the headline establishment survey gain of 336,000 which throws into question the large gains of the establishment survey.

In August 2023, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9%, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8%. I personally do not like the Federal Reserve’s methods for calculating changes in growth – I use year-over-year growth to remove the volatility. Using year-over-year methodology, consumer credit growth fell to 4.0% (blue line on the graph below), and adjusting for inflation growth was 2.0% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The bottom line is that overall consumer credit is growing around the historical average, however, credit card (revolving credit) use has returned to the levels seen in the higher inflation periods of 1970s to 2000.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• WTO Forecasts Global Trade Slowdown Amid Economic Headwinds
• U.S. Oil Rigs Decrease for Second Week Running, Gas Rigs Rise
• Central Banks Continue To Boost Gold
• Oil Traders Should Be Weary Of A Bear Trap
• Russia Escalates War With Nuclear Tests And Civilian Killings
• Dow soars nearly 300 points Friday as stocks reverse sharp losses after hot jobs report: Live updates
• Here’s where the jobs are for September 2023 — in one chart
• Wall Street will seek confirmation inflation is easing in the week ahead after Friday’s jobs report
• 10-year Treasury yield rises after strong U.S. jobs report
• Market Extra: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market
• Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 10 points or 0.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.13%, (low 4,226)
• Gold $1,835 down $0.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $1.73,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.712% down 0.023 points,
• USD Index $106.33 down $0.470,
• Bitcoin $27,475 down $175,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The labor shortage continues to hinder Main Street as 43% (seasonally adjusted) of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up three points from August. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Small business owners have spent the first three quarters of 2023 working to recruit and retain qualified employees for their businesses, but it still remains a top challenge. Owners continue to raise compensation to attract the right employees.

The goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were down 6.9% year-over-year. August imports were down 6.3% year-over-year. The graph below adjusts the import and export year-over-year values for inflation and deflation. The bottom line is that imports are telling us that consumer spending is weak.

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 208,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 211,000 to 211,250.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Zirconium Nitride Outshines Platinum In Fuel Cell Performance
• The Rise Of Nuclear Power In The Middle East
• Argentina’s Oil Production Surges As Political Instability Soars
• India Warns That OPEC+ Oil Supply Cuts Could Have Unintended Consequences
• U.S. Shale Is Reluctant To Drill Despite Rising Oil Prices
• S&P 500 closes slightly lower as traders brace for Friday’s big jobs report: Live updates
• GM’s stock hits three-year low amid UAW strike, potential air bag recall
• Trust In Congress Below 20% Third Month In A Row
• As 75,000 Kaiser healthcare workers walk off the job, Tenet Healthcare could be next to face a strike
• Cathie Woods’ ETFs sold more than $25 million worth of Tesla stock

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 127 points or 0.39%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.35%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.81%, (low 4,110)
• Gold $1,838 down $3.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $85 down $4.50,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.720% down 0.082 points,
• USD Index $106.71 down $0.290,
• Bitcoin $27,654 up $375,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September 2023 and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year. We will see if the BLS employment report agrees on Friday – but the gain is worse than any month since January 2021.

In September 2023, the Institute of Supply Management Services PMI registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than August. The composite index indicated growth in September for the ninth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). A reading below 55 indicates a slow economy.

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2023 improved 0.5% year-over-year – 0.6% inflation-adjusted. Manufacturing remains in the doldrums.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Delays Aid To Ukraine Amid Domestic Political Disputes
• Battery Lifespan Could Double With New Breakthrough
• Investors Prioritize Profits Over Green Credentials
• Germany Reactivates Coal Plants For Winter Power Boost
• Oil Prices Tumble As The EIA Reports A Significant Gasoline Build
• OPEC+ Leaves Oil Production Levels Unchanged
• Dow adds 100 points to snap 3-day losing streak as Treasury yields ease from 16-year highs: Live updates
• GM secures new $6 billion credit line as UAW strike costs reach $200 million
• Economic Report: U.S. jobs report forecast: 170,000 new workers and 3.7% unemployment

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 431 points or 1.29%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.37%, (low 4,216)
• Gold $1,840 down $7.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $0.73,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.800% up 0.117 points,
• USD Index $107.01 up $0.110,
• Bitcoin $27,253 down $660,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) for August 2023 increased by 3.7% year over year in August 2023 compared with August 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices rose by 0.3% compared with July 2023. Said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic:

While continued mortgage rate increases challenge affordability across U.S. housing markets, home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends. Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off.

The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. The bottom line is that the labor market is in a strange situation where the employment gains are moderating whilst unfilled jobs have changed little year-over-year. Obviously, the properly skilled people are not available. IMO this gap will be closed by automating the skilled tasks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• How Effective Are Electric Vehicles In Reducing Emissions?
• Offshore Wind Industry Hits Rough Waters Amid Rising Costs
• Budget Airlines Defy Travel Slowdown Concerns
• Coal Production Surges By 83% At India’s Largest Power Firm
• DOE Eyes Historic $1 Billion Loan To Kickstart U.S. Lithium Boom
• Production Pauses Hit Tesla’s Q3 Figures Harder Than Anticipated
• Dow loses more than 400 points and goes negative for 2023 as interest rates spike: Live updates
• Mortgage rate races toward 8% after hitting a high not seen since late 2000
• Krispy Kreme puts Insomnia Cookies brand up for sale as it doubles down on doughnuts
• GM sales jump 21% in the third quarter, Stellantis sees a drop
• Spiking yields weigh on homebuilder stocks, but their bonds are telling another story

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 74 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.67%,
• S&P 500 closed flat 0.01%,
• Gold $1,840 down $21.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 down $2.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.687% up 0.116 points,
• USD Index $107.01 up $0.790,
• Bitcoin $27,843 up $714,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI^® registered 49% in September 2023 – 1.4 percentage points higher than the 47.6% recorded in August. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 48.7%, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 49.2 percent, 2.4 percentage points higher than the figure of 46.8 percent recorded in August.

Construction spending during August 2023 is 7.4% above August 2022 – 3.3% inflation-adjusted. Construction now appears to be expanding year-over-year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Rising Oil Prices Threaten Economic Stability
• OPEC+ On Alert As World Bank Slashes China’s Growth Forecasts
• Clash Over Electric Vehicle Battery Plants Stall UAW Negotiations
• China’s Power Sector Investments Set To Top $13.9 Trillion By 2060
• Dow slides to begin October even as Congress staves off government shutdown: Live updates
• The benchmark for small-cap stocks — the Russell 2000 — turned negative for the year
• Bill Ackman says the economy is starting to slow and the Fed is likely done hiking
• Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Battered As Hawkish FedSpeak & Inflation Fears Lift The Dollar
• Market Extra: Why stock-market investors aren’t finding comfort in averted government shutdown
• Court strikes down federal rule that sharply increased prescription costs for many patients

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 158 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.14%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.27%,
• Gold $1865 down $13.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 down $0.83,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.581% down 0.016 points,
• USD index $106.19 up $0.04,
• Bitcoin $26,922 down $105
• Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count down 7 to 623

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In August 2023, real disposable personal income (personal income less personal current taxes) from the BEA increased 3.7% year-over-year (down from 4.3% last month), and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.3% year-over-year (down from 2.7% last month). The PCE price index increased 3.5% year-over-year – up from 3.4% last month – this shows inflation is again growing. Overall, this data set does not portray the U.S. as a thriving economy.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment confirmed its early-month reading and was little changed this month, slipping a mere 1.4 index points from August and remaining 16% higher than a year ago. A small decline in consumer expectations over their personal finances was offset by a modest improvement in expected business conditions. Consumers are understandably unsure about the trajectory of the economy given multiple sources of uncertainty, for example over the possible shutdown of the federal government and labor disputes in the auto industry. Until more information emerges about these developments, though, consumers have reserved judgement on whether economic conditions have materially changed from the past few months.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• No Energy Transition Unless Tech Can Make It Cost Competitive: BlackRock
• Oil, Gas Drilling Dips To February 2022 Low As Oil Prices Hover Near 2023 Highs
• Oil Price Rally Meets Resistance Despite Bullish Catalysts
• California Allows Early Move To Winter-Blend Gasoline As Prices Top $6
• Republican spending plan fails House vote, fueling federal government shutdown fears
• First co-defendant in Trump Georgia election case pleads guilty
• State of emergency issued for NYC’s wettest day since Ida; rain, flooding expected to last hours
• California Raises Minimum Wage For Fast-Food Workers
• Putin Crowns New Wagner Chief, Tasked With Sending Fighters Back To Ukraine

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 116 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.83%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.59%,
• Gold $1884 down $7.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $92 down $1.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.557% down 0.049 points,
• USD index $106.16 up $0.50,
• Bitcoin $27,132 up $775

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The third estimate of 2Q2023 real gross domestic product (GDP) was unchanged showing GDP grew at an annual rate of 2.1%. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.2% (revised). The third estimate primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. There was also no change to the PCE price index which is 2.5%.

The Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing activity declined somewhat in September 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -8 in September, down from 0 in August and up slightly from -11 in July. The decline from last month was primarily driven by decreases in durable goods, particularly metal manufacturing.

The National Association of REALTORS Pending home sales slid 7.1% in August 2023. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed. All four U.S. regions posted monthly losses and year-over-year declines in transactions. This decline is significant as year-over-year sales are down 18.7% – the existing home sales have collapsed. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated:

Mortgage rates have been rising above 7% since August, which has diminished the pool of home buyers. Some would-be home buyers are taking a pause and readjusting their expectations about the location and type of home to better fit their budgets.

United States Pending Home Sales YoY

In the week ending September 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 211,000, a decrease of 6,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 217,000 to 217,250.

CoreLogic’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for July 2023 shows 2.7% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 3% in July 2022 and a 0.1% increase from June 2023. CoreLogic projects that home price growth will pick up over the next year. There is no indication of stress in home loan performance.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Fall After 2-Day Rise
• Revolutionary Nickel-Gold Thermoelectric Surpasses Semiconductors
• U.S. Says Chinese Minerals Control Will Make Energy Security More Complex
• China’s Latest Move Could Further Raise Global Diesel Prices
• EIA Cuts U.S. Hydropower Generation Forecast By 6% For 2023
• Saudi Arabia May Start Unwinding Its Production Cuts Sooner Than Expected
• History shows a September stock sell-off typically begets a fourth-quarter rally
• New Orleans residents brace for salt water intrusion as Biden declares national emergency
• California School District Considers Removing Honors Courses For Sake Of “Equity”
• Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 68 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.22%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.02%,
• Gold $1894 down $25,
• WTI crude oil settled at $94 up $3.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.612% up 0.054 points,
• USD index $106.70 up $0.47,
• Bitcoin $26,233 up $25

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August 2023 were up 3.0% year-over-year (down 0.5% inflation-adjusted) – blue and red lines respectively on the graph below. Most sectors were little changed from the previous month with civilian aircraft significantly down and defense spending significantly up.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Fusion Experiments Shatter Previous Energy Records
• Saudi Arabia Forms Joint Venture With Greece To Link Power Grids
• Bulgaria Pledges $2.7 Billion For Military Upgrade As Black Sea Tensions Rise
• $40B Deal With U.S. Companies Kickstarts Poland’s Nuclear Power Ambitions
• Government Shutdown Could Slow Down U.S. Clean Energy Rollout
• UAW again threatens to expand strikes at Detroit automakers if progress isn’t made by Friday
• 10-year Treasury yield reaches level not seen in more than 15 years
• Landmark marijuana financing bill clears big hurdle in the Senate
• US Shale Giant Agrees With JPMorgan: Oil Headed For $150

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The red was flashing on the stock market tickers today. It is finally dawning that high interest rates, a government shutdown, the potential economy (and industry) killing wage demands by the UAW, and many other smaller economic issues will continue to weigh heavier on corporate profits – and may end up contributing to a recession.

• The Dow closed down 388 points or 1.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.57%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.47%,
• Gold $1918 down $18.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $91 up $0.93,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.55% up 0.008 points,
• USD index $106.18 up $0.18,
• Bitcoin $26,246 down $50

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite home price index posted a year-over-year increase of 0.1%, improving from a loss of -1.2% in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp commented:

Home price gains across the country have generally been solid. Lower-priced homes are seeing stronger recovery given the lack of affordable inventory and more demand pressure put on that segment.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies remained high in August 2023 as 157 CEOs left their posts in the month. It is down 20% from the 197 CEO changes announced in July, and up 149% from the 63 CEOs who left their posts in August 2022, according to a report released Tuesday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index improved in September 2023. The composite manufacturing index increased from −7 in August to 5 in September. Each of its three component indexes — shipments, new orders, and employment — increased. As several of the other regional Fed manufacturing surveys broke into expansion this month – could manufacturing be coming out of its recession?

Sales of new single‐family houses in August 2023 were up 5.8% year-over-year (significantly lower than the previous month). The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2023 was $430,300. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 436,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate. Still, if one considers the high mortgage rates, new home sales are stronger than one would expect.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined again in September 2023 to 103.0 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence fell again in September 2023, marking two consecutive months of decline. September’s disappointing headline number reflected another decline in the Expectations Index, as the Present Situation Index was little changed. Write-in responses showed that consumers continued to be preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. Consumers also expressed concerns about the political situation and higher interest rates. The decline in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups, and notably among consumers with household incomes of $50,000 or more.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Hydrogen Economy Gets A Boost With Advanced Catalyst
• Copper Prices Stuck As Stockpiles Skyrocket
• Study Says EU Could Scale Blue Hydrogen Faster Than Green Alternative
• Russia’s Crude Oil Exports Drop Amid Terminal Maintenance
• Oil Prices Under Pressure As U.S. Dollar Strengthens
•  IEA: Net Zero Still Achievable If The World Slashes Fossil Fuel Demand
• Ford Halts Construction At $3.5-Billion EV Battery Plant In Michigan
• Target says it will close nine stores in major cities, citing violence and theft
• The Looming Economic Cauldron
• Musk Warns Biden-Backed 40% UAW Pay-Hike Risks Big 3 Bankruptcy (Again)

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 43 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.45%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.40%,
• Gold $1935 down $11.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 down $0.10,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.540% down 0.10 points,
• USD index $105.94 up $0.36,
• Bitcoin $26,531 up $101

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) 3-month moving average edged down to –0.14 in August 2023 from –0.15 in July. Thirty-five of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in August, while 50 made negative contributions.  I consider the CFNAI the best coincident economic indicator, and the 3 month moving average is used for economic forecasting as it removes the volatility of the monthly data. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70. Still, since the value is below zero, it means the economy is expanding below the historical trend rate of growth.

Growth in the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey resumed in September 2023 with the production index rebounding nearly 20 points to 7.9—its highest reading of the year. The new orders sub-index pushed up 11 points to -5.2, a reading still indicative of falling demand though not at the pace seen in the past several months. The regional Fed surveys are volatile, and I have seen no indication yet that manufacturing is out of a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Armenia’s Western Pivot Sparks Unease In Moscow
• Chevron Getting Ready For New Oil Drilling In Venezuela
• Unprecedented Gold Hoarding By Central Banks Heralds Financial Sea Change
• The Spread Between Brent And WTI Has Aligned With Transatlantic Freight Costs
• ChatGPT can now ‘speak,’ listen and process images, OpenAI says
• Merck Covid drug linked to virus mutations that can spread between people, new study says
• Writers reach tentative deal with studios to end strike after nearly 150 days
• Bonds & Bullion Dumped, Dollar Jumps As Shutdown & Student-Loan Cliff Loo
• Government shutdown could leave thousands of federally backed mortgages in ‘limbo’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.