Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 10 points or 0.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.56%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.34%,
• Gold $2051 up $8.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.30,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.999% up 0.092 points,
• USD index $102.40 down $0.10,
• Bitcoin $44,179 up $1,441 (3.37%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The ADP National Employment Report for December 2023 shows U.S. private employment rose 164,000 led by a healthy bump in leisure and hospitality hiring. Construction held strong in the face of high-interest rates, but manufacturing continued to struggle, notching another month of losses. This is the highest growth since August. According to Nela Richardson
Chief Economist, ADP:

We’re returning to a labor market that’s very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring. While wages didn’t drive the recent bout of inflation, now that pay growth has retreated, any risk of a wage-price spiral has all but disappeared.

In the week ending December 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 212,000 to 212,500.

U.S.-based employers announced 34,817 job cuts in December 2023, down 24% from the 45,510 cuts announced in November. It is down 20% from the 43,651 cuts announced in the same month one year prior, according to a report released Thursday from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 20%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. However, forty percent of owners have job openings they could not fill. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners increased one point to 9%, four points below the highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. Per NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

The tight labor market has been a consistent concern for small business owners throughout 2023. The level of job openings suggests a solid labor market will continue on Main Street for 2024, as owners raise compensation to attract qualified workers and consumers spend.

• China in 2024: Economic Trials and Geopolitical Maneuvering
• Tech Trade War Looms as China Restricts Rare Earth Exports
• From Black Gold to Tech Marvel: Coal’s New Role in Electronics
• Average U.S. Natural Gas Prices Plunged by 62% in 2023
• Very Large Product Builds Push Oil Lower Despite Crude Draw
• U.S. Overtakes Qatar to Become World’s Top LNG Exporter
• Friday’s jobs report will be a big signal for a market looking for good news
• Walgreens stock plunges after drugstore chain slashes quarterly dividend nearly in half
• Bitcoin bounces back above $44,000 amid volatile start to 2024: CNBC Crypto World
• Magnificent Seven’s January Start Gives Clues To Market’s Year
• Nasdaq logs longest losing streak in over a year as the S&P 500 falls for a fourth day to extend the dismal 2024 start

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 285 points or 0.76%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.18%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.80%,
• Gold $2049 down $24.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $2.71,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.903% down 0.037 points,
• USD index $102.45 up $0.27,
• Bitcoin $42,740 down $2,078 (4.64%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

… Participants generally perceived a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. As an upside risk to both inflation and economic activity, participants noted that the momentum of economic activity may be stronger than currently assessed, possibly on account of the continued balance sheet strength of many households. Furthermore, participants observed that, after a sharp tightening since the summer, financial conditions had eased over the intermeeting period. Many participants remarked that an easing in financial conditions beyond what is appropriate could make it more difficult for the Committee to reach its inflation goal

… participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, though they noted that the actual policy path will depend on how the economy evolves. Participants pointed to the decline in inflation seen during 2023, noting the recent shift down in six-month inflation readings in particular, and to growing signs of demand and supply coming into better balance in product and labor markets as informing that view. Several participants remarked that the Committee’s past policy actions were having their intended effect of helping to slow the growth of aggregate demand and cool labor market conditions. They judged that, in combination with improvements in the supply situation, these developments were helping to bring inflation back to 2 percent over time. Most participants noted that, as indicated in their submissions to the SEP, they expected the Committee’s restrictive policy stance to continue to soften household and business spending, helping to promote further reductions in inflation over the next few years.

• UK Manufacturing Sector Plunges Deeper Into Crisis
• Oil Gains Over 3% On Libya, OPEC and Middle East Escalation
• Argentina’s New President Is Looking To Shake Up Its Oil Industry
• BYD’s Record-Breaking Quarter Challenges Tesla’s EV Dominance
• MidEast Conflict Escalates with 2 Explosions in Iran Killing 100
• Dow tumbles nearly 300 points Wednesday, Nasdaq closes lower for a 2nd straight day in 2024: Live updates
• Xerox to cut 15% of its workforce
• Mortgages, auto loans, credit cards: Expert predictions for interest rates in 2024
• U.S. recession still a threat; China growth stalls, and other 2024 investing risks
• 10-year Treasury yield slips after December Fed minutes show officials didn’t rule out further rate hikes

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 26 points or 0.07%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.63%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.57%,
• Gold $2068 down $4.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $1.20,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.931% up 0.071 points,
• USD index $102.23 up $0.89,
• Bitcoin $44,846 up $1,473 (2.69%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during November 2023  is 11.3% above November 2022 (10.8% inflation-adjusted). Construction continues to be one of the strongest sectors in the economy.

• Central Asia’s Delicate Dance Around Russian Sanctions
• Germany Boasts Record Renewable Capacity Additions in 2023
• Russia’s Pipeline Gas Exports to Europe Plunge by 56% in 2023
• The Rise of Tesla: Model 3 and Y Dominate Global EV Sales
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Begin Falling Again
• Record Declines in Grain Prices May Ease Global Food Crisis
• China Reinstates Coal Tariffs, Impacting Global Suppliers
• S&P 500 closes lower to begin 2024, Nasdaq notches worst day since October: Live updates
• Bitcoin soars to kick off 2024, topping $45,000 for first time since April 2022: CNBC Crypto World
• BYD beats Tesla for a second straight year after producing more than 3 million cars in 2023
• Dow flat, Nasdaq ends lower to start 2024, with jobs report ahead this week
• Treasury yields end with biggest one-day jump in almost a month

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 21 points or 0.05%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.56%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.28%,
• Gold $2073 down $10.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.39,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.866% up 0.016 points,
• USD index $101.36 up $0.13,
• Bitcoin $42,051 down $535,
• Baker Hughes rig count up 2 to 622

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

• Africa Becomes a Focal Point in Russia’s Global Strategy
• Brent Closes The Year Below $80 as Red Sea Tensions Ease
• Reuters Claims OPEC Facing Significant Market Share Loss
• Oil Prices Projected to Remain Below $80 in 2024
• From FedEx to airlines, companies are starting to lose their pricing power
• SpaceX sets new rocket record with 96 successful launches in 2023
• Drugmakers set to raise U.S. prices on at least 500 drugs in January
• COVID Mask Mandates Return Across US Hospitals

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 54 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.03%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.04%,
• Gold $2,077 down $16.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $2.20,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.844% up 0.055 points,
• USD Index $101.24 up $0.25,
• Bitcoin $42,521 down $977 ( 2.25% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Pending Home Sales Index – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings –year over year, pending transactions were down 5.2% – an improvement from last month’s -8.2%.. Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist stated:

Although declining mortgage rates did not induce more homebuyers to submit formal contracts in November, it has sparked a surge in interest, as evidenced by a higher number of lockbox openings.

In the week ending December 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250.

• GasBuddy: Gasoline and Diesel Prices To Fall In 2024
• Record Global Gasoline Consumption Defies IEA Forecast
• Aerospace Industry Eyes Full Recovery by 2025
• Cheap Imports Threaten India’s Steel Sector
• Houthi Attacks Fail to Stop Middle East’s Pricing Problem
• S&P 500 closes little changed Thursday, struggles to reach record: Live updates
• Startup bubble fueled by Fed’s cheap money policy finally burst in 2023
• Could a bitcoin ETF approval be a sell-the-news event? What investors are expecting on the big day
• November pending home sales were unchanged, despite a sharp drop in mortgage rates
• Boeing Urges Airlines To Inspect 737 Max After “Possible Loose Bolt” For Rudder System
• Treasury yields extend bounce after weak 7-year note auction in final full trading day of 2023

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 111 point or 0.30%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.14%,
• Gold $2,089 up $19.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $1.63,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.783% down 0.103 points,
• USD Index $100.94 down $0.520,
• Bitcoin $43,498 up $1,344 ( 3.19% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

• Oil Prices Shed 2% As Shippers Gamble on Red Sea
• Iron Ore Futures Hit Ten-Month High On Chinese Stimulus Efforts
• Shipping Giants Resume Suez Canal Operations Following Houthi Attacks
• Brent Holds At $80 After Red Sea Attacks
• Ether rallies 6% in catch-up trade as investors position for January
• MicroStrategy buys more bitcoin, pushing holdings to nearly $6 billion: CNBC Crypto World
• Bitcoin’s 2023 rally drove some of the stock market’s biggest gains this year
• ICE Arrests 26 Illegal Immigrants In California For Removal Over Crimes Of Sexual Abuse
• New York Times sues Microsoft and OpenAI for ‘billions’
• 10-year Treasury yield drops to lowest since July as market absorbs sale of 5-year notes

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 159 points or 0.43%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.54%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.42%,
• Gold $2078 up $9.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $1.60,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.895% down 0.013 points,
• USD index $101.46 down $0.24,
• Bitcoin $42,146 down $1,404

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

• Taliban’s Energy Project Threatens Pakistan’s Water Supply
• U.S. Shatters Oil Production Records in 2023
• Car Ownership is More Expensive Than Ever
• Is the ESG Investment Bubble Bursting?
• Copper Prices Waver as Global Supply Faces New Challenges
• The U.S. avoided a recession in 2023. What’s the outlook for 2024? Here’s what experts are predicting
• Blinken’s Visit To Mexico Focuses On Optics As Migration Crisis Hits Biden’s Polls
• This Year, Americans Have Become Hungrier, Lonelier And More Desperate

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 18 points or 0.05%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.19%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.17%,
• Gold $2,064 up $13.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $0.34,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.901% up 0.007 points,
• USD Index $101.71 down $0.130,
• Bitcoin $43,736 down $91 ( 0.04% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in November 2023 were up 9.5% year-over-year (3.2% inflation adjusted). The surge this month in durable goods is attributable to civilian aircraft orders.

Real Disposable Personal income for November 2023 increased 4.3% year-over-year whilst real personal consumption expenditures (real PCE) increased 2.7% year-over-year. The PCE price index was 2.6% year-over-year (3.2% less food and energy) which is nearing the Federal Reserve’s 2% goal. Spending remains in a tight range which does not indicate an upcoming recession.

Sales of new single‐family houses in November 2023 declined to just 1.4% above the November 2022 level. The median sales price of new houses sold in November 2023 was $434,700. The average sales price was $488,900. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of November was 451,000. This represents a supply of 9.2 months at the current sales rate. This was a disappointing month for home sales.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia To Cut Oil Exports From Sea Ports in January
• U.S. Clean Hydrogen Tax Credit Proposal Leaves Out Nuclear Energy
• Falling Nickel Prices Weigh Heavy on Stainless Steel Industry
• Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway Raises Occidental Stake To 27.7%
• Oil Prices Gain Ahead Of Christmas
• S&P 500 closes higher Friday, registers longest weekly win streak since 2017: Live updates
• Fed’s favorite inflation gauge shows prices rose at 3.2% annual rate in November, less than expected
• Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Nike, Rocket Lab, Bristol Myers, NetEase and more
• Nike, Foot Locker shares sink after athletic apparel maker cuts revenue outlook
• ‘Pursuing Litigation, Not Democracy’ – Federal Judge Rejects Lawsuit To Remove Trump From Ballot
• Treasury yields end mostly higher after subdued U.S. inflation reading in holiday-shortened session

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 322 points or 0.87%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.26%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.03%,
• Gold $2,056 up $8.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $0.25,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.890% up 0.013 points,
• USD Index $101.81 down $0.600,
• Bitcoin $43,776 up $264 ( 0.61% )
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 620 Canada -39 to 146

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The December 2023 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey continued to decline overall. The survey’s indicators for general activity and shipments remained negative. Furthermore, the index for new orders declined sharply and turned negative. The diffusion index for current general activity declined from -5.9 in November to -10.5 in December. This is the index’s 17th negative reading in the past 19 months. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged 71% from 105 CEO exits in October to 180 in November 2023. This marks an 89% increase from the 95 CEOs who left their posts in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. November’s total is the highest monthly total since 197 CEOs left their posts in July.

The third estimate of 3Q2023 real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.9% (2.9% year-over-year). This is the same as the advance estimate and is down from the second estimate of 5.2%. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The third estimate primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. Imports, a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down.

The Kansas City Fed’smanufacturing activity was flat in December 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -1 in December, up slightly from -2 in November and -8 in October. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes.

In the week ending December 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 212,000, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil and Gas Prices Hold Steady Despite Red Sea Turmoil
• Beijing Clamps Down on Critical Rare-Earth Processing Technology
• Audi, Porsche, and VW Embrace Tesla’s Charging Standard for 2025 EVs
• OPEC Influence Wavers as U.S. Shale Roars Back
• Dow closes higher by more than 300 points, S&P 500 rebounds from worst day since September: Live updates
• Container rates hit $10,000 as ocean freight inflation soars in Red Sea crisis
• Boeing hands over first 787 Dreamliner to China since 2019
• Smash-And-Grab Gang Loots Chanel Store Blocks From White House
• Job market is softening and bankruptcies are rising, Paychex CEO says

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 476 points or 1.27%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.50%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.47%,
• Gold $2,045 down $7.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $0.14,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.851% down 0.071 points,
• USD Index $102.49 up $0.330,
• Bitcoin $43,520 up $1,2970 ( 3.02% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2023 Economic Forecast: Economy Is Likely To Decelerate

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Will the COP28 Consensus Keep Fossil Fuels in the Ground?
• 5 Million Barrels of Russian Oil Stuck En Route to India
• Sodium-Ion: A Game-Changer in the Global Battery Market
• Brent Breaks Past $80 Barrier As Houthis Attack Red Sea
• Putin Orders Asset Seizures From Austrian and German Energy Giants
• Putin Seizes Multi-Billion-Dollar OMV and Wintershall Stakes in Russian Ventures
• Dow closes more than 470 points lower Wednesday to snap 9-day win streak: Live updates
• Billions are on the line for lenders as White House finalizes credit card late fee cap
• Bitcoin bounces back above $43,000: CNBC Crypto World
• Most Large Container Ships Abandon Red Sea As Key Trade Route Freezes
• Dow Jones ends 475 points lower after 9-day winning streak

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