Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 152 points or 0.40%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.30%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.96%,
• Gold $2,004 down $3.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.26,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.265% down 0.051 points,
• USD index $104.72 down $0.24,
• Bitcoin $51,412 up $2,355 (4.63%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle 40% of the USA container traffic – and January 2024 was a good month with imports up 21% year-over-year and exports up 2% year-over-year. The steep improvement in imports strongly suggests the USA economy is stronger than realized.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• New Electrode Revolutionizes Hydrogen Production from Seawater
• Canadian NDP Calls for Ban on Coal Exports
• Skyrocketing Battery Mineral Demand Set to Outpace Supply By 2023
• Oil Prices Steady as Middle East Conflict Intensifies on Lebanese Border
• Product Draws Not Enough to Offset Huge Crude Build
• Dow closes more than 100 points higher as stocks recoup some losses following big sell-off: Live updates
• Mortgage rates surge higher again, causing homebuyers to pull back
• Lyft CEO takes blame for ‘extra zero that slipped into’ earnings release
• Uber stock pops more than 10% on $7 billion share buyback
• Bitcoin briefly crosses $52,000 as it recaptures $1 trillion market cap: CNBC Crypto World
• Economists Are Sounding Alarm On ‘YOLO’ Credit Bubble
• MGM’s hotels charged $1,000 a night on average for the Super Bowl, but the stock suffers a hangover

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 525 points or 1.35%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.80%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.37%,
• Gold $2,006 down $27.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.83,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.314% up 0.144 points,
• USD index $104.88 up $0.71,
• Bitcoin $49,393 down $552 (1.42%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in January 2024 increased 3.1% year-over-year – down from 3.3% in December 2023 but unchanged from 3.1% in November 2023. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.9% over the last 12 months, the same increase as for the 12 months ending December. The Federal Reserve uses the PCE inflation index to monitor inflation which the January data will be released at the end of February – and most likely it will be little changed. The market reaction to this release is surprising as I have been saying that inflation pressures are increasing – and the market mistakingly believed inflation has gone away.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index decreased two points in January 2024 to 89.9, marking the 25^th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. The net percent of owners who expect real sales to be higher declined 12 points from December to a net negative 16% (seasonally adjusted), a very negative shift in expectations.  NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Small business owners continue to make appropriate business adjustments in response to the ongoing economic challenges they’re facing. In January, optimism among small business owners dropped as inflation remains a key obstacle on Main Street.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Why Are China’s Solar Panels So Cheap?
• Bearish Market Conditions Persist for Stainless Steel
• Oil Steady As Inflation Comes In Hotter Than Expected
• Mining Billionaire Slams Carbon Capture as ‘Falsehood’
• ETF Frenzy Pushes Bitcoin to Highest Levels Since 2021
• Diamondback Energy’s $26 Billion Endeavor Acquisition Shakes Up Permian Basin
• OPEC Sees Strong Long-Term Oil Demand
• Dow tumbles 500 points, posts worst day since March 2023 after hot inflation report: Live updates
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for January 2024 — in one chart
• Here’s what bitcoin’s chart says about its next moves after it breached $50,000 this week
• Prices rose more than expected in January as inflation won’t go away
• This stock-market predictor with a great record is even more bullish now than it was last year
• Treasury yields end at highest levels since at least December after hotter-than-expected CPI inflation report

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 126 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.09%,
• Gold $2,034 down $4,40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $0.23,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.166% down 0.021 points,
• USD index $104.12 up $0.01,
• Bitcoin $50,226 up $2,216 (4.62%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) for February 2024 rose to -0.11 in January, up from -0.15 in December. GSCPI readings measure standard deviations from the index’s historical average. This index uses input from the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) and the Harpex index, as well as airfreight cost indices from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. These current readings show the supply chain is not under stress and is near the historical average despite the disruptions in the Red Sea.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

1. How Fracking Helped the U.S. Become the World’s Top Oil Producer
2. Trinidad & Tobago Declares National Emergency after Ghost Ship Oil Spill
3. Houthis Strike Greek Ship in Red Sea Due to ‘American’ NASDAQ Listing
4. Plunging Oil and Gas Sales Drag Russia’s Exports to Europe Down by 68%
5. Dow rises more than 100 points to close at a record: Live updates
6. Bitcoin extends its gains, breaking through the $50,000 level
7. JetBlue resets with new CEO, industry veterans to run airline on time, and profitably
8. Trump’s NATO comments stir up a political storm as Russia keeps quiet
9. Jeff Bezos just sold $2 billion in Amazon stock. That doesn’t mean you should sell too.
10. The AI machines are not coming for your job

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 55 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.25%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.57%,
• Gold $2,039 down $9.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $0.28,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.177% up 0.007 points,
• USD index $104.07 down $0.09,
• Bitcoin $47,540 up $2,035 (4.48%),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 623 Canada unchanged at 232

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy looks better now than it did three months ago, according to 34 forecasters responding to the First Quarter 2024 Survey of Professional Forecasters. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2024, up 0.7 percentage point from the estimate in the previous survey. A downward revision to the path for the unemployment rate accompanies the outlook for growth. On an annual-average basis, the forecasters expect the unemployment rate to average 3.9 percent in 2024, marking a downward revision from the previous estimate of 4.1 percent. The employment projections for the current quarter and the following three quarters show upward revisions from those of the previous survey.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Brazil’s Gas Imports Fall to Lowest Level In 20 Years Thanks to Hydro Push
• Venezuela Sends Military to Guyana Border Over Oil Dispute
• Ukraine Attacks Russian Oil Refineries With Drones
• How Long Can the Houthis Hold Out?
• U.S. Oil Industry Favors Trump for President
• S&P 500 closes above 5,000 for first time ever, notches fifth straight winning week: Live updates
• Inflation in December was even lower than first reported, the government says
• Bitcoin hits $47,000 for first time since January, rising more than 10% in a week: CNBC Crypto World
• How “Wokeness” Took Over
• Cisco To Fire “Thousands”, Adding To Firehose Of Tech Layoffs Since Beginning Of 2024
• 2-year, 10-year Treasury yields at highest levels since December after modest CPI revisions

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 49 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.24%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.06%,
• Gold $2,048 down $3.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $2.64,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.158% up 0.006 points,
• USD index $104.15 up $0.09,
• Bitcoin $45,521 up $1,390 (3.15%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

December 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 1.6% from December 2022 – down 3.8% inflation-adjusted. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 2.7% from December 2022. The December inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.34. The December 2022 ratio was 1.40. It is the inventory-to-sales ratio that provides the indication of a slowing economy and this ratio is currently improving.

In the week ending February 3, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 207,750 to 208,500.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Skilled Worker Shortage Stalls U.S. Construction Boom in 2024
• Shipping Giants Warn of Worsening Red Sea Security Situation
• Duke Energy Misses Earnings Forecast as Higher Interest Rates Bite
• Oil Gains 2% as Israel Rejects Gaza Ceasefire Deal, US Gas Inventory Plummets
• Maersk Tumbles as Red Sea Crisis Stings
• BP’s Indiana Refinery to Remain Shut for Three Weeks
• Arm shares surge 60% after SoftBank-controlled chip designer issues strong forecast
• S&P 500 hits 5,000, but closes just under the milestone: Live updates
• PayPal plummets as Wall Street likens CEO’s strategy to ‘turning around the titanic’
• Bitcoin breaks above $45,000 to highest level since day after spot ETFs went live: CNBC Crypto World
• No Charges: Biden “Willfully” Retained Classified Documents; Special Counsel Says Biden “Elderly Man With Poor Memory”
• Investors see risk that inflation was hotter than reported for the end of 2023

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 156 points or 0.40%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.95%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.82%,
• Gold $2,051 down $0.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $0.79,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.115% up 0.023 points,
• USD index $104.05 down $0.17,
• Bitcoin $44,166 up $1,071 (2.57%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The U.S. monthly international trade deficit increased in December 2023 as imports increased more than exports. Imports increased 1.2% year-over-year while exports increased 6.3% year-over-year. Growth in imports normally suggests a growing U.S. economy whilst growing exports suggest a strengthening international economy.

In 2023, consumer credit increased 2.4%, with revolving and nonrevolving credit increasing 8.4% and 0.4%, respectively. On an inflation-adjusted basis, consumer credit only increased 0.6% in 2023. This is very poor consumer credit growth in a time of economic expansion.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Uzbekistan to Install Thousands of EV Charging Stations in Eco Push
• Texas Was Warned of $12 Billion Cost of Grid Reliability Policy
• Is the Push for Electric Vehicles Outpacing Market Readiness?
• Oil Jumps Despite Crude Inventory Build
• Disney beats earnings estimates, hikes guidance as it slashes streaming losses
• S&P 500 closes near 5,000, notches closing high as strong earnings continue: Live updates
• Spirits sales beat out beer and wine for second straight year, despite little growth
• Blistering Saudi Statement Slams Door On Normalization With Israel
• Israel-Hamas Deal Is Dead As Netanyahu Dismisses ‘Delusional’ Terms, War To ‘Expand’
• S&P 500 looks ‘accident prone’ as it nears 5,000 milestone
• Consumers slammed the brakes on borrowing in December, Fed data show

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 141 points or 0.37%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.07%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.23%,
• Gold $2,052 up $9.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $0.72,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.089% down 0.075 points,
• USD index $104.16 down $0.29,
• Bitcoin $43,107 up $739 (1.78%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.5% in December 2023 compared with December 2022. Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist for CoreLogic stated:

Last winter’s mortgage rate surge impacted seasonal home price changes in many markets and suggests that annual gains may have reached the cycle peak and will level off in the coming months. But while appreciation is projected to slow, home prices will continue to extend to new highs entering the typically busy spring homebuying season. Also, while the recent dip in mortgage rates help improve some affordability challenges, additional rate declines may not arrive until the second half of 2024. The 2024 homebuying season should enjoy a boost because of pent-up demand, as well as a robust job market and wage growth. Geographic patterns in price gains continued to favor housing markets in the Northeast and the South, especially those that remain more affordable and have lagged in home price increases over the past couple of years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• AI to Transform Solar Cell Production
• Oil Market Needs $14 Trillion: OPEC Secretary General
• U.S. Crude Oil Production To See Zero Growth This Year: EIA
• Diesel Prices Set to Spike This Year: Kemp
• U.S. Thermal Coal Finds New Life Overseas
• Palantir shares rocket 30% after revenue beat, strong demand for AI
• New York Community Bancorp stock falls 22% as slump extends
• Credit card delinquencies surged in 2023, indicating ‘financial stress,’ New York Fed says
• Somali pirates are back on the attack at a level not seen in years, adding to global shipping threats
• WeWork’s ousted boss plots buyback of bankrupt firm
• Treasury yields finish lower as buyers return and Fed officials reiterate need to hold off on rate cuts
• AMC’s stock rallies more than 11%, on pace for biggest gain since August

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 274 points or 0.71%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.20%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.32%,
• Gold $2,042 down $12.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.55,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.162% up 0.131 points,
• USD index $104.45 up $0.53,
• Bitcoin $42,374 down $477 (1.11%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In January 2024, the ISM Services PMI registered 53.4%, 2.9 percentage points higher than December’s seasonally adjusted reading of 50.5 percent. The composite index indicated growth in January for the 13th consecutive month after a seasonally adjusted reading of 49 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity sub-Index registered 55.8 percent in January, matching the seasonally adjusted reading of 55.8 percent in December. The New Orders sub-Index expanded in January for the 13th consecutive month . This index suggests modest growth.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Buffett-Backed Occidental CEO Says Oil Shortage by 2025
• 7 Killed in Drone Attack On Occupied Syrian Oil Field
• Kyrgyzstan Faces Heating Crisis After Power Plant Accident
• Brent Crude Holds at $77 on Strong Jobs Report, Potential Rate Cut Delay
• Hertz Halts EV Purchases from Polestar as Resale Value Crashes
• U.S. And Iranian Attacks In The Middle East Threaten Major Oil Price Rises
• Germany to Subsidize 10 GW of New Natural Gas Power Plant Capacity
• Dow closes more than 250 points lower, S&P 500 slips from record as bond yields surge: Live updates
• Mortgage rates jump back over 7% as stronger economic data rolls in
• Snap to lay off 10% of global workforce, around 500 employees
• Senate releases $118 billion bipartisan aid proposal for Israel, Ukraine, border security
• 10-, 30-year Treasurys post biggest 2-day losses in years on strong economic data, Powell interview

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 135 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.74%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.07%,
• Gold $2,054 down $16.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $1.68,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.024% up 0.161 points,
• USD index $103.92 up $0.87,
• Bitcoin $42,940 down $71 (0.16%),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 619 Canada +2 to 232

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January 2024, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent. Major Job gains occurred in health care (which accounted for almost 1/3 of employment gains), retail trade, and professional and business services. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry. The household survey shows a decline in employment of 31,000 against an increase in the headline establishment survey of 353,000 (big discrepancy). Another interesting data point is that the labor force declined 175,000. Overall, this should be considered a strong employment report.

New orders for manufactured goods in December 2023 is up 1.4% year-over-year – which aligns with Federal Reserve data for a change. Based on the regional Fed surveys, it appears that the January data should show manufacturing has slipped back into recession.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Two U.S. Refineries Returning To Service After Emergency Outages
• Iraq Wants to Ditch the U.S. Dollar in Oil Trade
• Oil Poised for Biggest Weekly Loss since November
• Uncertainty in Oil Markets Amid Rumors of a Ceasefire in Gaza
• Meta shares surge 20% on soaring profit, better-than-expected guidance and first-ever dividend
• Here’s where the jobs are for January 2024 — in one chart
• S&P 500 jumps to record, on pace for winning week after strong tech earnings: Live updates
• Bitcoin rises 3% in a week as analysts expect longer-term uptrend: CNBC Crypto World
• U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected
• French Shipping Giant Is Latest To Suspend Red Sea Transit, As Details Emerge Of US Destroyer’s ‘Close Call’
• Oil prices post biggest weekly loss since October

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 370 points or 0.97%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.30%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.25%,
• Gold $2,074 up $1.86,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $2.03,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.860% down 0.105 points,
• USD index $103.06 down $0.21,
• Bitcoin $42,900 up $287 (0.67%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during December 2023 was is 13.9% above December 2022. Construction is one of the bright spots in the current economy.

U.S.-based employers announced 82,307 job cuts in January, a 136% increase from the 34,817 cuts announced one month prior. It is down 20% from the 102,943 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. With the exception of last January’s total, this is the highest number of job cuts announced in January since January 2009, when 241,749 cuts were announced in the first month of that year.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 49.1 percent in January, up 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted 47.1 percent recorded in December. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved into expansion territory at 52.5 percent, 5.5 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted figure of 47 percent recorded in December.

4Q2023 nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) and unit labor costs increased 2.3% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). This is the second quarter that productivity growth has been slightly above the increase in labor costs.

In the week ending January 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 207,750, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 202,250 to 202,500.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted net 14% of small business owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down two points from December and the lowest level since May 2020. Thirty-nine percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from December and the lowest reading since January 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Although consumer spending remains strong, small business owners cannot find enough workers to fill their open positions,” said . “Owners continue to raise compensation to retain and attract workers with the skills and willingness to do the job, but hiring remains a struggle in the tight labor market.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Uranium Prices Soar As World Turns to Nuclear Power
• Oil Prices Drop, Recover on Gaza War Ceasefire Proposal Rumors
• U.S. Prepares for Multi-Day Strikes Against ‘Iranian Targets’
• U.S. Exports of Steam Coal Reached 5-Year High in 2023
• Dow closes more than 350 points higher, Nasdaq jumps 1% in rebound from Fed Day sell-off: Live updates
• Amazon earnings are out — here are the numbers
• Morgan Stanley names Ford its new top pick among U.S. automakers
• Peloton shares plummet 20% as fitness company gives dismal outlook
• U.S. regional banking shares tumble for second straight day
• January hiring was the lowest for the month on record as layoffs surged
• 10-year Treasury yield finishes at lowest level of year as traders weigh litany of risks
• Dow Jones rises 340 points in final hour of trading as U.S. stocks recover from two-day selloff ahead of Big Tech earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.