Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 94 points or 0.25%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.59%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.56%,
• Gold $2,009 down $21.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.30,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.100% up 0.034 points,
• USD index $103.36 up $0.37,
• Bitcoin $42,585 down $523 (1.271%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. import prices declined 1.6% year-over-year in December 2023, after declining 1.5 percent in November. Prices for U.S. exports fell 3.2% year-over-year in December following a 5.2% decline the previous month. For all of 2023, it was cheaper to buy an imported product.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023 were up 5.6% above December 2022 – 2.2% inflation-adjusted. Retail sales have been gradually improving since May 2023.

Industrial production improved 1.0% year-over-year in December with components manufacturing up 1.2% year-over-year, mining up 4.3% year-over-year, and utilities down 4.9% year-over-year. This is the first month since February 2023 that manufacturing has grown year-over-year. Is the manufacturing recession over?

According to the Federal Reserve’s January 2024 Beige Book:

A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting expectations in most Districts and by exceeding expectations in three Districts, including in New York, which noted strong holiday spending on apparel, toys, and sporting goods. In addition, seasonal demand lifted airfreight volume from ecommerce in Richmond and credit card lending in Philadelphia. Several Districts noted increased leisure travel, and a tourism contact described New York City as bustling. Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. Districts continued to note that high interest rates were limiting auto sales and real estate deals; however, the prospect of falling interest rates was cited by numerous contacts in various sectors as a source of optimism. In contrast, concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty. Overall, most Districts indicated that expectations of their firms for future growth were positive, had improved, or both.

• China Hits 5.2% Growth Target Despite Population Challenges
• U.S. Gasoline Prices End 2-Week Losing Streak
• Europe’s Nuclear Power Renaissance
• Tennessee Valley Authority Asks Customers To Conserve Power Amid Cold Spell
• ran’s Strike in Pakistan Adds to Middle East Tensions
• Jamie Dimon warns ‘all these very powerful forces’ will impact U.S. economy in 2024 and 2025
• Dow closes lower Wednesday, notching third straight losing session as bond yields rise: Live updates
• Samsung announces new Galaxy S24 lineup with AI-powered photo editing, search features
• Trump says ‘I would love it’ when judge threatens to kick him out of E. Jean Carroll trial
• Beige Book Finds “LIttle Or No Change” In Economic Activity But Optimism Rises On Hopes Of Lower Rates
• 10-, 30-year Treasury yields hit five-week highs after December retail sales data
• Tesla could be staring down a year of ‘growing pains,’ analyst cautions

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 232 points or 0.62%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.19%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.37%,
• Gold $2,032 down $19.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.68,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.068% up 0.116 points,
• USD index $103.36 up $0.96,
• Bitcoin $43,236 up $346 (0.81%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows national single-family rent growth remained stable in November 2023. As in the past few months, rental demand is picking up in pricier coastal areas of the U.S., with the Boston, New York, San Diego, and San Francisco metros all ranking in the top five for annual gains in November. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic stated:

More than three years of increasing U.S. single-family rents and the rising costs of other goods have made many renters sensitive to the cost of living. Many renters are renewing their current leases, and others who are moving are seeking lower-priced alternatives.

The January 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows the headline general business conditions index fell twenty-nine points to -43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments also posted sharp declines. Unfilled orders continued to shrink significantly, and delivery times continued to shorten. Inventories edged lower. Employment and the average workweek declined modestly. Even though I am not a fan of surveys, this one is extremely recessionary. Manufacturing as a sector has been in recession for over one year.

• The World’s Top 50 Power-Hungry Data Center Markets
• North Dakota Oil Output Down Up to 650,000 BPD in Severe Storm
• Navy SEALs Seize Vessel with Iranian Missile Parts Bound for Houthis
• Shell To Sell its Onshore Oil Business in Nigeria
• Shell Halts All Red Sea Shipments as Tensions Rise
• Qatar Halts Red Sea LNG Shipments As Regional Tensions Escalate
• Dow closes more than 200 points lower Tuesday after 10-year Treasury yield tops 4%: Live updates
• AMD shares jump 7% and head for highest close since 2021 on AI chip demand
• UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
• Hush Money: JP Morgan Pays $18 Million Fine For Violating Whistleblower Protection Rules
• No rate cuts in 2024? Why investors should think about the ‘unthinkable.’

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Markets Closed Today – Martin Luther King Day:

      Commodities As Of 4 PM EST

• Gold $2,059 up $7.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.18,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.939% down 0.036 points,
• USD index $102.58 up $0.18,
• Bitcoin $42,895 up $330 (0.95%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

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• Prices at American Pumps Tick Higher Amid Volatility
• Why The U.S. is Suddenly Expanding its Claims on Ocean Seabeds
• Houthis Strike U.S. Merchant Vessel After Targeting Warship
• Texans Asked to Conserve Energy as Deep Freeze Strains Grid
• Poland Plans End Date for Coal Power Phase-Out
• 10 years in, GM CEO Mary Barra has built her legacy on change and crisis. 2024 will bring new tests
• Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don’t care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
• 42-year-old brings in more than $1 million a year from newsletter, podcast: ‘My advice is just stop tweeting and do the work’
• Death, ‘Disease X’, & “Rebuilding Trust” With The Denizens Of Davos
• Why Donald Trump is unlikely to get his wish for a 2024 U.S. stock-market crash

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 118 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.02%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.08%,
• Gold $2,051 up $31.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.78,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.952% down 0.021 points,
• USD index $102.44 up $0.15,
• Bitcoin $43,656 down $2,538 (5.55%),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 619 Canada +88 to 213

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand in December 2023 rose 2.5% year-over-year – up from last month’s 2.4% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). The PPI component services decreased in December relative to November but the price of goods increased. Overall in 2023, movements in the PPI have correlated with the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Both the CPI and PPI have stopped declining over the past months which begs the question of whether the Federal Reserve will be forced to raise the Federal Funds rate in the near future.

• Kazakhstan Quadruples Grain Exports to China
• TotalEnergies Port Arthur Refinery Shuts Crude Units on Malfunction
• World’s Largest Uranium Miner Will Miss Production Targets
• Trans Mountain Pipeline Faces Two-Year Delay Without Route Change
• Tesla to Pause Production at Berlin Factory Due to Supply Chain Problems
• Why the Short Term Outlook for Oil Remains Bearish
• Deflation: Here’s where prices fell in December 2023, in one chart
• Airline stocks tumble after Delta trims profit forecast
• This closely watched recession signal is shifting for reasons unrelated to economic-growth prospects, strategist says
• Bitcoin ETFs are live. Watch for the next most popular crypto to go same route

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 15 points or 0.04%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.00%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.07%,
• Gold $2,032 up $4.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.01,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3,987% down 0.043 points,
• USD index $102.34 down $0.02,
• Bitcoin $46,315 up $399 (0.87%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.4% year-over-year in December 2023 – up from 3.1% in November. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.9% year-over-year after rising 4.0% in November.  The CPI-U essentially stopped declining in June 2023 which begs the question whether the Fed will need further rate increases to drive inflation to their 2% target.

In the week ending January 6, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 207,750 to 208,000.

• Russian’s Oil and Gas Revenues Dip by 24% in 2023
• Iran Seizes U.S. Oil Tanker in Act of Revenge for 1M Barrels Seized in 2023
• The Path to Cutting 100 Million Tons of Methane Emissions
• Uranium’s “Third Bull Market” Set to Shine in 2024
• Fake SEC Tweet Sends Bitcoin on a Rollercoaster Ride
• Bitcoin ETFs begin trading on U.S. exchanges
• U.S. deficit tops half a trillion dollars in the first quarter of fiscal year
• S&P 500 closes little changed Thursday after hotter-than-anticipated inflation report: Live updates
• Spot bitcoin ETFs swing in first day of trading, but show strong investor interest: CNBC Crypto World
• Big Tech had a huge 2023. Why it may be time to part with some of your winners
• Hertz Begins Dumping 20,000 EVs In Shift Back To Petrol Cars
• 2-year Treasury yield falls to lowest level of month as traders look past December inflation data

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 171 points or 0.45%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.75%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.57%,
• Gold $2,027 down $5.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.92,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4,042% up 0.025 points,
• USD index $102.40 down $0.17,
• Bitcoin $46,103 down $492 (1.22%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

November 2023 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.5 % from November 2022. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were down 3.0% from November 2022.  The November inventories/sales ratio was 1.34. The November 2022 ratio was 1.39. Although the data is far from excellent, it is hard to correlate it to economic performance as the wholesale industry is going through transformation. Note the sales-to-inventory ratios are not climbing which would suggest a recession.

• Suez Canal Crisis: A New Catalyst for Global Inflation
• Blinken Condemns Iran For Aiding Houthi Red Sea Attacks
• Nickel Price Hits New Low As Market Struggles Continue
• New Study Claims UK North Sea Oil Isn’t Worth the Trouble or Expense
• Oil Slides on Large Builds in Fuel Inventories
• Dow closes more than 150 points higher Wednesday ahead of key inflation readings: Live updates
• Global shipping rates set to jump as carriers avoid the Red Sea amid Houthi attacks
• The spot bitcoin ETF: Here’s what happens when it starts trading
• Nvidia’s stock could rise above $600 — despite signs it’s already overbought
• AMC’s stock on pace for another record-low close and set to extend losing streak to two days
• Treasury yields end steady as traders position ahead of December’s CPI inflation report

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 158 points or 0.42%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.09%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.15%,
• Gold $2,036 up $2.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.39,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4,015% up 0.013 points,
• USD index $102.54 up $0.33,
• Bitcoin $46,716 down $50 (0.03%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 1.3 points in December to 91.9, marking the 24^th consecutive month below the 50-year average of 98. Twenty-three percent of small business owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business, up one point from last month, and replacing labor quality as the top concern. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Small business owners remain very pessimistic about economic prospects this year. Inflation and labor quality have consistently been a tough complication for small business owners, and they are not convinced that it will get better in 2024.

• Scientists Present New Solid-State Lithium Battery That Lasts 6000 Cycles
• Big Three Automakers Rebound After Turbulent 2023
• China Sanctions 5 U.S. Defense Firms Ahead of Taiwan Election
• Azerbaijan Doubles Down on Its Domestic Oil Potential
• France Moves Away from Renewable Targets in Favor of Nuclear Power
• S&P 500 closes slightly lower as stocks’ early 2024 struggles linger: Live updates
• Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin treated for prostate cancer, severe infection: Pentagon
• Global economy set for its worst half-decade of growth in 30 years, World Bank says
• Bitcoin hovers at 21-month high ahead of imminent spot ETF decision by SEC: CNBC Crypto World
• tocks making the biggest moves midday: Unity Software, JetBlue, Juniper Networks and more
• Mortgages: Barclays and Santander cut rates as competition intensifies
• Dow snaps three-day winning streak as market awaits inflation data, earnings

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 217 points or 0.58%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.20%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.41%,
• Gold $2,033 down $16.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $2.75,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4,006% down 0.036 points,
• USD index $102.25 down $0.16,
• Bitcoin $46,813 up $2,655 (6.01%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to the Federal Reserve, in November 2023 total consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.7% with revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 17.7% and nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 1.5%. Using my preferred year-over-year analysis – total consumer credit increased by 2.8% (blue line on the graph below and 1.4% inflation-adjusted red line on the graph below). This credit expansion is low for times of economic growth. Non-revolving credit is mostly student and personal loans – and is barely growing year-over-year whilst revolving credit (say credit cards) is growing 9.6% year-over-year (but slowly moderating).

• 3 Catalysts That Could Push Gold Prices Even Higher
• Equinor Sells Off Azerbaijan Oil Assets
• Iran’s Dark Fleet: The High Cost of Clandestine Oil Exports
• Affordability Crisis Weigh on Automobile Sector
• Traders Most Bearish on Oil Since March 2023
• Oil Prices Slump by 4% As Demand Concerns Trump Supply Risks
• United Airlines inspections find loose bolts on several Boeing 737 Max 9 aircraft after grounding
• Nasdaq Composite closes 2% higher Monday as tech stocks’ revival lifts major averages: Live updates
• Mortgage rate decline pulls buyers back into the housing market
• Bitcoin touches highest level in nearly two years as deadline for spot ETFs looms: CNBC Crypto World
• Consumer Credit Shocker: November Debt Soars After Second Biggest Surge In Credit Card Debt On Record
• Dow ends higher with third day of gains, as bond yields pull back

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 26 points or 0.07%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.09%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.18%,
• Gold $2052 up $1.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $1.68,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.044% up 0.053 points,
• USD index $102.47 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $43,747 down $707 (1.50%),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 621 Canada +39 to 125

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 216,000 in December 2023, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent. The headline numbers are stronger than expected and show decent growth. Employment continued to trend up in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, while transportation and warehousing lost jobs. Interestingly, the household survey showed a decline in the employed of 683,000 whilst the headline establishment survey increased 216,000 – this is a huge difference casting doubt on the validity of the headline numbers. In all events, the rate of growth year-over-year of employment continues to decline.

In December 2023, the ISM Services PMI registered 50.6 percent, 2.1 percentage points lower than November’s reading of 52.7 percent. A reading above 50 percent indicates the services sector economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates it is generally contracting – the bottom line is that this index is saying the economy is barely growing.

• Europe’s Natural Gas and Power Prices Jump as Cold Snap Begins
• U.S. Drilling Continues to Slow
• India Slashes Financial Support for State Oil Refiners’ Green Goals
• Retaliation Looms After Iran Bombings
• Eli Lilly’s direct drug sales alone may not upend the industry, but others could follow suit
• Apple shares slip on report U.S. government preparing antitrust lawsuit
• S&P 500 closes slightly higher Friday, but major averages end 9-week win streak: Live updates
• Wall Street heads into the week ahead on edge as inflation and earnings data loom
• Bitcoin dips 1.5% ahead of next week’s expected decision on spot ETF: CNBC Crypto World
• U.S. payrolls increased by 216,000 in December, much better than expected
• US Bankruptcies Jump 18% In 2023 Amid High Interest Rates
• The S&P 500’s first five trading days may indicate full-year performance. That doesn’t bode well for stocks in 2024.

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 10 points or 0.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.56%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.34%,
• Gold $2051 up $8.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.30,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.999% up 0.092 points,
• USD index $102.40 down $0.10,
• Bitcoin $44,179 up $1,441 (3.37%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The ADP National Employment Report for December 2023 shows U.S. private employment rose 164,000 led by a healthy bump in leisure and hospitality hiring. Construction held strong in the face of high-interest rates, but manufacturing continued to struggle, notching another month of losses. This is the highest growth since August. According to Nela Richardson
Chief Economist, ADP:

We’re returning to a labor market that’s very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring. While wages didn’t drive the recent bout of inflation, now that pay growth has retreated, any risk of a wage-price spiral has all but disappeared.

In the week ending December 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 212,000 to 212,500.

U.S.-based employers announced 34,817 job cuts in December 2023, down 24% from the 45,510 cuts announced in November. It is down 20% from the 43,651 cuts announced in the same month one year prior, according to a report released Thursday from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 20%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. However, forty percent of owners have job openings they could not fill. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners increased one point to 9%, four points below the highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. Per NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

The tight labor market has been a consistent concern for small business owners throughout 2023. The level of job openings suggests a solid labor market will continue on Main Street for 2024, as owners raise compensation to attract qualified workers and consumers spend.

• China in 2024: Economic Trials and Geopolitical Maneuvering
• Tech Trade War Looms as China Restricts Rare Earth Exports
• From Black Gold to Tech Marvel: Coal’s New Role in Electronics
• Average U.S. Natural Gas Prices Plunged by 62% in 2023
• Very Large Product Builds Push Oil Lower Despite Crude Draw
• U.S. Overtakes Qatar to Become World’s Top LNG Exporter
• Friday’s jobs report will be a big signal for a market looking for good news
• Walgreens stock plunges after drugstore chain slashes quarterly dividend nearly in half
• Bitcoin bounces back above $44,000 amid volatile start to 2024: CNBC Crypto World
• Magnificent Seven’s January Start Gives Clues To Market’s Year
• Nasdaq logs longest losing streak in over a year as the S&P 500 falls for a fourth day to extend the dismal 2024 start

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