• The Dow closed down 123 points or 0.28%,
• Nasdaq closed up 159 points or 0.81%, (New Historic high 19,863, Closed at 19,860)
• S&P 500 closed up 15 points or 0.25%, (New Historic high 6,090, Closed at 6,001)
• Gold $2,655 up $6.80 or 0.26%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $1.13 or 1.65%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.153 down 0.029 points or 0.694%,
• USD index $106.00 up $0.29 or 0.27%,
• Bitcoin $101,440 up $2,3223 or 2.29%, (24 Hours),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +7 to 589 Canada -11 to 194
  U.S. Rig Count is up 7 from last week to 589 with oil rigs up 5 to 482, gas rigs up 2 to 102 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 5

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks were mixed on Friday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite gaining while the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined slightly. Tech giants Amazon, Apple, and Meta reached new all-time intraday highs, contributing to the NASDAQ’s strong performance. For the week, the Dow shed 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained close to 1%, and the NASDAQ climbed more than 3%. The U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs in November, slightly surpassing expectations. The unemployment rate unexpectedly increased to 4.2%. This jobs report was seen as a “Goldilocks” scenario, strong enough to alleviate economic concerns but soft enough to keep the Federal Reserve’s options open regarding interest rate cuts. Following the report, market expectations for a Fed rate cut in December increased significantly. The odds of a quarter-percentage point rate cut on December 18 rose to nearly 90%, up from about 70% before the report. Bitcoin continued its rally in the cryptocurrency market, trading around $101,000 on Friday afternoon. The surge was partly attributed to expectations of support for digital currencies from President-elect Donald Trump, who named David Sacks as his “White House AI & Crypto Czar”. In corporate news, Lululemon and Ulta Beauty saw their shares rise after both retailers increased their profit forecasts. Looking ahead to next week, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Wednesday will be a key data point for the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates. The economic calendar also includes wholesale inventories and the import price index. Notable companies reporting earnings include GameStop, Macy’s, Costco, and Broadcom.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 227,000 in November 2024 with unemployment rate rising an insignificant 0.1 points to 4.2%. Big gainers this month were in health care, leisure and hospitality, government, and social assistance. Retail trade lost jobs. The household survey which provides the unemployment numbers shows a DECLINE in the number of employed by 355,000 whilst the headline employment numbers from the establishment survey show employment gain of 227,000. When you have this large difference between a survey and a half-assed data-gathering system, I would believe neither. At least we have the ADP numbers earlier this week which showed employment gains of slightly less than 150,000. The U-6 unemployment rate (Total Unemployed, Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force, Plus Total Employed Part Time for Economic Reasons, as a Percent of the Civilian Labor Force Plus All Persons Marginally Attached to the Labor Force) continues to trend up which does not usually happen unless a recession is coming.

The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment rose in December 2024 for the 5th consecutive month. This survey is politically biased and doubt it reflects the real levels of consumer sentiment – but I am passing it along. 

For the first time since the fourth quarter of 2022, the share of negative equity rose in the U.S. on a quarterly basis. Just compared to last quarter, the number of residential properties that fell into negative equity increased by 30,000 homes or 1.8%. This CoreLogic Homeowner Equity Report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 62% of all properties) saw home equity increase by $425 billion since the third quarter of 2023, a gain of 2.5% year over year, bringing the total net homeowner equity to over $17.5 trillion in the third quarter of 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Putin’s Gazprombank Move Creates Ripple in EU-U.S. Sanctions Strategy
• Stellantis CEO Resignation Sends Shockwaves Through U.S. Auto Industry
• U.S. Oil Rig Count Rises Despite Falling Crude Prices
• Solar Panel Importers Face Tariff Deadline Crunch
• U.S. Solar Cell Production Resumes After a 5-Year Break
• Assad in Serious Trouble as Middle East War Shifts Back to Syria
• Here’s where the jobs are for November 2024 — in one chart
• Appeals court upholds law ordering China-based ByteDance to sell TikTok or face U.S. ban
• DOGE’s Musk, Ramaswamy want Congress to pass huge spending cuts. That’s a tough sell
• Next week’s inflation data could derail a market that’s priced for perfection
• Unemployment rate jumps more than a percentage point for Black women in November
• “Cancel Me… I’m For America”: NYC Mayor Eric Adams Hints At Switch To Republican Party
• Tech View: Nifty forms long bull candle with minor shadow. What should traders do on Monday?
• Treasury yields end at lowest levels since October as jobs data reinforce December rate-cut expectations
• U.S. consumer credit jumps in October as credit cards drive purchases

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 248 points or 0.55%,
• Nasdaq closed down 35 points or 0.18%, (New Historic high 19,790, Closed at 19,700)
• S&P 500 closed down 11 points or 0.19%, (New Historic high 6,075, Closed at 6,075)
• Gold $2,654 down $22.50 or 0.83%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.03 or 0.04%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.174 down 0.008 points or 0.191%,
• USD index $105.75 down $0.58 or 0.54%,
• Bitcoin $99,223 down $198 or 0.20%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 103,544)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The U.S. stock market experienced a relatively flat session on Thursday, with investors anticipating the crucial jobs report on Friday. Bitcoin made headlines by breaking through the $100,000 mark, reaching as high as $103,000. This surge was driven by expectations of a crypto-friendly approach from the incoming Trump administration and the nomination of Paul Atkins as potential SEC chair, who is seen as supportive of cryptocurrency. Investors are closely watching Friday’s jobs report for insights into the economy’s strength. Interestingly, smaller cryptocurrencies have outperformed Bitcoin since the election with Bitcoin is up over 40% since Election Day; Ethereum has risen almost 60; and some smaller tokens like Ripple, Cardano, and Dogecoin have seen triple-digit rallies. The market is currently pricing in a 74% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve on December 18. 5 The market remains optimistic, with continued focus on potential interest rate cuts and the upcoming jobs report.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The trade balance improved in October 2024 as both imports and exports declined. Imports declined from 9.4% year-over-year last month to 3.7% this month. Exports declined from 5.1% year-over-over last month to 2.0% this month. The trade balance declined from 34.7% gain last month to 14.8% this month. The likely reason is that in September, shippers rushed shipments to avoid a potential east coast strike – this means September would have been well above normal whilst October would have been less than normal.

In the week ending November 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 218,250, an increase of 750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 217,000 to 217,500. This data is historically consistent with a strong economy.

U.S.-based employers announced 57,727 job cuts in November 2024, a 3.8% increase from the 55,597 cuts announced one month prior. It is up 26.8% from the 45,510 cuts announced in the same month in 2023.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Steady After OPEC+ Pushes Back Output Hike
• Data Centers Are Sending Global Electricity Demand Soaring
• Bitcoin Shatters $100,000 Ceiling, Fueled by Trump’s Pro-Crypto Stance
• Why Oil Markets Are Trading With Zero Conviction
• Small Nuclear Reactors Are Gaining Traction Around the Globe
• MicroStrategy gives up big gain, turns negative despite bitcoin $100,000 milestone
• There’s an important jobs report coming Friday. Here’s what to expect
• Dow drops more than 200 points, S&P 500 retreats from record as big payrolls report looms: Live updates
• Lilly invests $3 billion to expand Wisconsin plant as obesity drug demand soars
• Waymo to expand to Miami, aims to launch robotaxi service there in 2026
• Boeing plea deal tied to fatal crashes rejected
• Treasury yields end mixed as November jobs data looms

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 309 points or 0.69%,
• Nasdaq closed up 254 points or 1.30%,
• S&P 500 closed up 37 points or 0.61%,
• Gold $2,675 up $6.60 or 0.24%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $1.13 or 1.62%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.186 down 0.035 points or 0.83%,
• USD index $106.33 down $0.03 or 0.02%,
• Bitcoin $98,882 up $2,891 or 3.01%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

On Wednesday, all three major US stock indexes reached record closing highs, driven by a tech rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surpassing 45,000 for the first time. Investors reacted positively to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at the New York Times DealBook Summit, where he described the US economy as being in “remarkably good shape.” This bolstered confidence that the Fed may cut interest rates at its upcoming December meeting, with traders estimating a 77% chance of a 25 basis point reduction. Significant gains were seen in major tech stocks: Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) both reached intraday all-time highs. Nvidia (NVDA) surged over 3%, nearing its record. Salesforce (CRM) stock jumped by 11% following strong quarterly revenue results that raised expectations for its AI products. Bitcoin approached $100,000 per coin amid positive investor sentiment following President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Paul Atkins as SEC Chairman, who is viewed favorably by the cryptocurrency community.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

• The Dow closed down 76 points or 0.17%,
• Nasdaq closed up 77 points or 0.40%,
• S&P 500 closed up 3 points or 0.05%,
• Gold $2,665 up $6.60 or 0.24%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.87 or 2.75%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.230 up 0.036 points or 0.86%,
• USD index $106.34 down $0.11 or 0.1%,
• Bitcoin $95,818 down $30 or 0.03%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks closed mixed on Tuesday as investors processed new jobs data and Federal Reserve commentary on interest rates. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and NASDAQ Composite (^IXIC) reached new record highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) ended down despite recovering from earlier lows. Job openings in October increased by 372,000 to 7.74 million, surpassing estimates of 7.52 million. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) revealed fewer hires but a rise in the quits rate from 1.9% to 2.1%, indicating increased worker confidence [note: there is no correlation of jobs growth to either hires or quits]. Fed policymakers Mary Daly, Austan Goolsbee, and Adriana Kugler suggested continued rate cuts as the central bank moves towards a more neutral policy stance. Following these comments, Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year note yield rising about 3 basis points. Market expectations for a quarter-point rate cut at the Fed’s December 18 meeting increased to 72%, up from 62% the previous day. In corporate news, US Steel (X) shares fell about 8% after President-elect Donald Trump vowed to block its $15 billion takeover by Japan’s Nippon Steel.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

On an annual basis, home prices rose by 3.4% in October 2024. Note that in the chart below CoreLogic projects home prices will continue to decline until the middle of next year – and then will begin increasing reaching the 2.4% in October 2025. For the majority of Americans, homes are the most valuable asset owned. A decline in home prices would slow consumer spending.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Uncertainty Looms Over Aluminum Prices as Chinese Exports Face New Tariff
• US Treasury Tightens Focus on Iran’s Oil Networks
• Jaguar’s Electric Ambitions Take Shape with Type 00 Reveal
• Putin’s War Effort Strains Russian Economy
• Why No One Wants California’s Orphaned Oil Wells
• Oil Prices Rise as OPEC+ Prepares to Extend Production Cuts
• EU Commission Earmarks $4.8 Billion for Clean Tech and EV Batteries
• NATO Chief Cautions Trump Against ‘Bad’ Ukraine Peace Deal
• Russia’s ESPO Crude Prices Jump to 2022 High on Strong Chinese Demand
• Intel considers an outside CEO, taps headhunters, sources say
• Mike Bloomberg warns making RFK Jr. HHS secretary risks killing Americans, urges Senate to reject him
• US Steel Takeover By Japanese Company Will Be Blocked, Says Trump
• Will Microsoft Ride $5 Trillion Bitcoin Wave (Or Avoid Risk); PolyMarket Betters Skeptical

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 129 points or 0.29%,
• Nasdaq closed up 186 points or 0.97%,
• S&P 500 closed up 15 points or 0.24%,
• Gold $2,661 down $20.30 or 0.76%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $0.07 or 0.1%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.192 down 0.002 points or 0.048%,
• USD index $106.38 up $0.64 or 0.60%,
• Bitcoin $95,563 down $1,727 or 1.78%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped from its recent peak. Tech stocks led the gains, with Apple reaching new highs and Tesla shares rising over 3%. Investors are anticipating the November jobs report on Friday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he’s leaning towards supporting another rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, barring any upside surprises in inflation data. The S&P 500 and Dow are entering December on a strong note, having ended November with their best monthly gains in a year. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up over 25%, while the Dow has gained nearly 20%. In individual stocks, Stellantis shares fell after CEO Carlos Tavares suddenly resigned and Intel stock pared earlier gains following the announcement of CEO Pat Gelsinger’s retirement. The dollar strengthened as investors assessed President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat against BRICS countries. Trump warned of 100% tariffs if these nations move away from the US dollar, raising concerns about potential trade conflicts.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during October 2024 was 5.0% above October 2023 – down from 5.3% the previous month. Spending on private construction increased from 4.5% to 5.1% year-over-year. Public construction spending declined significantly from 8.0% year-over-year to 4.5%. Although construction remains a bright spot in today’s economy, it is slowly losing its shine.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI^® registered 48.4% in November 2024, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. For the last two years, manufacturing has been in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Panama Delists 6 Flagged Ships over UK Russia Sanctions
• Trump’s Tariff Threats Trigger Surge in Chinese Exports
• U.S.-Based Semiconductor Company Tied to Russian Military Supply Chain
• This Forgotten Metal Could be The No.1 Commodity Play of 2025
• U.S. Enters Winter with Highest Natural Gas Stocks in Eight Years
• Is Trump Going To Turn The Screw On Iran’s Key Criminal Accomplice Iraq?
• Traders Become More Bullish on European Diesel as Winter Arrives
• Gazprom Hits Maximum Capacity of Pipeline Gas Flows to China
• Europe’s Gas Storage Plummets at Fastest Pace in 8 Years
• Europe’s Gas Storage Plummets at Fastest Pace in 8 Years
• Norway Pauses Deep Sea Mining Plans
• Fed Governor Waller says he is ‘leaning toward’ a December rate cut, but worries about inflation
• Trump Warns Hamas Of “Hell To Pay” If Hostages Aren’t Freed Before Inauguration
• US Bitcoin Reserve Is Possible, But Not Without Downsides

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 189 points or 0.42%,
• Nasdaq closed up 158 points or 0.83%,
• S&P 500 closed up 34 points or 0.56%,
• Gold $2,676 up $11.40 or 0.44%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.19 or 0.29%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.172 down 0.070 points or 1.556%,
• USD index $105.81 down $0.33 or 0.31%,
• Bitcoin $97,072 up $1,436 or 1.5%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks reached record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both achieving new peaks during a holiday-shortened trading session. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a significant increase marking a strong finish to a successful month for all major indices, which experienced their best post-Thanksgiving Friday since 2012. The gains on Friday capped off a month where the S&P 500, Dow, and small-cap Russell 2000 all recorded their best monthly performance in a year. Notably, the S&P 500’s overall gain through November represented its best year-to-date performance since 2013, with an increase of over 25% so far this year. Investor sentiment remained buoyed despite concerns regarding potential inflation impacts from the president-elect’s proposed tariffs on key trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, and China. Optimism grew when Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated that a tariff war might be avoided following discussions with Trump. Additionally, speculation about a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts did not dampen enthusiasm as investors looked forward to what has been one of the strongest years for the stock market in recent history. If the S&P 500 achieves another annual gain of over 20%, it would mark the first consecutive years of such growth since 1998-1999.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Brazil Opens Doors to New Oil Exploration with 91 Blocks on Offer
• Ceasefire With Hezbollah Shifts Israel’s Focus to Iran
• The Secretive Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China
• Uganda to Fund $4-Billion Oil Refinery after Ditching Efforts to Tap Markets
• Iran Could Go Nuclear if Sanctions Are Reimposed
• Ukraine Claims Hit on Oil Depot in Russia
• Analysts Cut 2025 Oil Price Forecasts Again
• Russia’s Gas Supply to Europe Remains Stable Before Ukraine Transit Deal Ends
• Trudeau Government Frets Over Trump Oil Tariffs
• Bitcoin heads for nearly 40% November gain as it edges closer to $100,000
• Trump voters could fuel holiday spending, while Harris supporters may pull back
• Putin Says Trump ‘Not Safe’ After Assassination Attempts, Slams Mudslinging Against His Family
• “This Week, The Second Trump Trade War Started”
• Smith & Wesson Deplatformed From Facebook As Musk Welcomes Gun Industry To X

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 138 points or 0.31%,
• Nasdaq closed down 115 points or 0.60%,
• S&P 500 closed down 23 points or 0.38%,
• Gold $2,636 up $15.60 or 0.60%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.01 or 0.01%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.250 down 0.052 points or 1.209%,
• USD index $106.06 down $0.95 or 0.89%,
• Bitcoin $96,629 up $4,685 or 5.1%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The U.S. stock market experienced a bad day on Wednesday as investors analyzed new inflation data. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed minimal progress towards the 2% target in October. Traders now estimate a 34% chance the Fed will maintain current interest rates, up from 24% a month earlier. The third-quarter GDP remained unchanged. Dell shares plummeted over 12% due to declining PC demand. HP stock also dropped more than 11% following its earnings report. The market mood was subdued ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with markets set to close on Thursday and have shortened hours on Friday.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October 2024 were up 2.7% year-over-year (increased from -1.7% year-over-year last month). This was a healthy increase which suggests consumers returned to the spending trough in October.

Real (inflation adjusted) personal income improved from 2.6% year-over-year last month to 2.7% in October 2024. Real personal consumption expenditures declined from 3.1% last month to 3.0% in October. Inflation worsened with the PCE price index worsened from 2.1% last month to 2.3% in October and this same price index excluding food and energy worsened from 2.7% last month to 2.8% in October. As predicted, inflation worsened and I see inflation worsening for at least the next 6 months. This is the inflation index the Federal Reserve prefers to gauge inflation.

The second estimate of Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. This was unchanged from the advance estimate. The inflation measure in GDP (implicit price deflator) improved from 2.6% in 2Q2024 to 2.2% in 3Q2024. Not much I can add but in the new normal, growth over 2% year-over-year is good.

Pending home sales (homes under a sales contract) increased 5.4% year-over-year in October 2024 according to NAR. The NAR can be likened to the fox watching the chicken coop. In the graph below shows data provided by realtor.com – a licensee of the NAR owned by News Corp which shows year-over-year gains of 9.9% in pending home sales. In any event, pending home sales is trending up. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun adds:

Homebuying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales. Even with mortgage rates modestly rising despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the short-term interbank lending rate in September, continuous job additions and more housing inventory are bringing more consumers to the market.

In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 217,750 to 218,250. This data is consistent with a strong economy.

The Chicago Business Barometer^™ eased 1.4 points to 40.2 in November 2024.  This was the second consecutive monthly fall from 46.6 in September, leaving the index 2.7 points below the year-to-date average. The decline was due to four of the five subcomponents falling (Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs and Employment), with only Supplier Deliveries rising in October. The Chicago PMI is believed to be a window into the PMI manufacturing index which will be released next week. Manufacturing is in a recession in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Electric Capital Spending Has Skyrocketed, and It’s Only the Start
• Reuters: Exxon Lobbyist Investigated Over Leak Of Environmentalist Emails
• Lebanon Cease-Fire Deal Is a Major Victory For Israel
• China’s Industrial Sector Posts Large Profit Decline In October
• UAE’s Oil Giant Launches $80-Billion Chemicals and Green Energy Firm
• Russia’s Fuel Exports Jump to 8-Month High
• Russia’s Shadow Fleet Has Moved Its Oil Smuggling Operations to New Waters
• Goldman Sachs: OPEC+ Cuts Provide Near-Term Upside to Oil Prices
• Homebuyer demand for mortgages jumps 12% after first interest rate drop in over 2 months
• U.S. Court Could Reopen Bidding for Oil Refiner Citgo After Failed Deal
• ‘Europe’s Detroit’ built a thriving car industry. Trump tariffs now threaten to unravel its success
• Is Reviving Keystone XL More Than Just A Pipe Dream?
• Russia Reveals 2 Dead, Radar Site Damaged, After US-Supplied Missiles Struck Kursk

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 124 points or 0.28%, (Closed at 44,293, New Historic high 44,903)
• Nasdaq closed up 119 points or 0.63%,
• S&P 500 closed up 35 points or 0.57%, (Closed at 6,001, New Historic high 6,021)
• Gold $2,632 up $13.10 or 0.50%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.29 or 0.42%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.296 up 0.035 points or 0.821%,
• USD index $106.95 up $0.13 or 0.12%,
• Bitcoin $91,333 down $2,325 or 3.79%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks showed resilience on Tuesday despite President-elect Donald Trump’s threat to impose new tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico. Both the Dow and S&P500 closed at record levels. Markets initially reacted negatively to Trump’s late Monday announcement of plans to implement significant tariffs on the US’s largest trading partners on his first day in office. This announcement reignited trade war concerns and dampened Wall Street’s expectations that Treasury Secretary nominee Scott Bessent would moderate any extreme actions by the new administration. Carmaker stocks, both domestic and international, experienced declines following Trump’s “America First” stance. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar dropped sharply as the US dollar rallied. Investors also analyzed the minutes from the recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, which indicated a preference for gradual interest rate cuts if the economy remains stable. Some officials noted that persistent inflation or a labor market downturn could lead to a pause in the easing cycle.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single-family houses in October 2024 were 9.4% below October 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2024 was $437,300. The average sales price was $545,800. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of October was 481,000. This represents a supply of 9.5 months at the current sales rate. New home sales are declining due to high mortgage rates and high home prices.

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained sluggish in November 2024. The composite manufacturing index remained at −14 in November. Of its three component indexes, shipments decreased from −8 to −12, new orders edged down from −17 to −19, and employment increased from −17 to −10. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.6%, dropping from a 5.2% increase in the previous month. Home prices seem to be slightly moderating but home prices increasing do not make housing more affordable. I would expect further slowdown of existing home sales volumes.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased in November 2024 to 111.7 (1985=100), up 2.1 points from 109.6 in October. Likely the results of the election pushed this OPINION index higher but I am not a fan of opinion. In the case of consumer confidence, it is generally believed that higher consumer confidence results in consumers spending more. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board added:

Consumer confidence continued to improve in November and reached the top of the range that has prevailed over the past two years. November’s increase was mainly driven by more positive consumer assessments of the present situation, particularly regarding the labor market. Compared to October, consumers were also substantially more optimistic about future job availability, which reached its highest level in almost three years. 

The Federal Reserve issued meeting minutes for the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on November 6–7, 2024. I did not find any surprises in the meeting minutes. The following are a summary of the participants’ observations and evaluations:

• Inflation has significantly decreased from its peak, although core inflation remains elevated. Most participants believe that inflation is on track to return sustainably to 2% despite expected month-to-month volatility. Disinflationary trends are evident across a broad range of core goods and services, with price increases now closer to historical stability rates. Participants noted increased consumer price sensitivity and reluctance from firms to raise prices.
• While housing service prices are still high, expectations are that these will slow as rent increases for new tenants stabilize.
• Recent data indicates solid labor market conditions, although temporary fluctuations have occurred due to strikes and natural disasters. Job vacancies and turnover rates are declining, suggesting easing labor demand. Nominal wage growth is decreasing, with job switchers facing a reduced wage premium. Participants noted that wage increases are unlikely to contribute to inflationary pressures in the near term. Businesses are becoming more selective in hiring due to a larger pool of qualified applicants willing to accept moderate wages.
• Economic activity remains strong, supported by a robust labor market and rising household wealth. However, low-income households face financial strains, which could impact their spending behavior.
• Favorable supply developments continue to support business expansion. However, there is uncertainty regarding the sustainability of recent productivity gains attributed to various factors including technology integration.
• Participants agreed to lower the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.5%-4.75%. This adjustment aims to sustain economic strength while progressing toward inflation goals. Future monetary policy decisions will depend on economic data trends and risks associated with employment and inflation goals. Participants emphasized the need for a balanced approach in adjusting policies based on evolving economic conditions.
• Participants noted vulnerabilities in the financial system, particularly concerning commercial real estate (CRE) and potential risks from unrealized losses on bank assets. Cyber risks and rising delinquency rates among low-income households were also highlighted as areas needing close monitoring.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Don’t Underestimate Trump’s Impact on U.S. LNG
• U.S. Gas Drillers Saddle Up for Data Center-Fueled Demand Ride
• U.S. Oil Output Hits Record High in August
• Exxon: Don’t Expect ‘Drill, Baby, Drill’ Under Trump
• China Set to Import Record-High Volume of Coal in November
• Fed officials see interest rate cuts ahead, but only ‘gradually,’ meeting minutes show
• Israel-Lebanon permanent ceasefire has been accepted, Biden says
• Stocks rise Tuesday, Dow and S&P 500 close at records: Live updates
• Small caps historically outperform even the Santa Claus rally, starting before Thanksgiving
• Senate report slams airlines for raking in billions in seat fees
• Bitcoin drops to $91,000 level as crypto markets slump: CNBC Crypto World
• FOMC Minutes Show “Many” Members Suddenly Favor More Gradual Rate-Cutting-Cycle
• 10-year Treasury yield logs biggest gain in 2 weeks after Fed minutes point to slower rate cuts

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 440 points or 0.99%,
• Nasdaq closed up 51 points or 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed up 18 points or 0.30%,
• Gold $2,629 down $84.30 or 3.12%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $2.17 or 3.05%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.265 down 0.147 points or 3.288%,
• USD index $106.88 down $0.67 or 0.63%,
• Bitcoin $94,959 down $1,700 or 1.79%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stocks rose on Monday, driven by optimism over President-elect Donald Trump’s nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury secretary. This announcement boosted investor sentiment, leading to significant gains across major indices: Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at a new record high. Russell 2000 surged over 2%, reaching a record high, as small-cap stocks rallied strongly. The market’s positive reaction was partly due to the perception that Bessent might moderate fiscal policies, which helped ease concerns about inflationary pressures. Additionally, investors are looking forward to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, set for release on Wednesday. Bitcoin was attempting to reach the $100,000 mark but fell back below $95,000.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.24 in October 2024 from –0.21 in September. This is my favorite coincident indicator although like all indicators – at times, it is wrong in trend and value. And the 85 individual indicators it monitors will be revised for decades. That is why the CFNAI looks like it parallels GDP – but in real time it missed the start of the Great Recession. Consider this a tea leaf to be read in conjunction with other tea leaves.  According to the Chicago Fed: “a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. Conversely, following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20.” Bottom line – there is little change in October which means the economy is not strong.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey was flat in November 2024 falling to a -0.9 level after rising to 14.6 last month. The new orders index pushed further negative to -11.9, indicating continued declines in demand. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes slipped back into negative territory, coming in at -4.8 and -5.9, respectively. Not a question in my mind that the manufacturing recession continues.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia’s Uranium Gambit: A Wake-Up Call for U.S. Energy Independence
• Oil for Troops: Russia’s Barter System with North Korea Exposed
• Oil Prices Fall On Possible Mid-East Peace Deal
• UK Slaps Largest Sanctions Package Yet on Russia’s Shadow Tanker Fleet
• IMF’s Proposed Carbon Restrictions Could Have Major Economic Repercussions
• U.S. stock and bond markets love Trump’s pick of Bessent for Treasury — here’s why
• Dow jumps 400 points to new record close, Russell 2000 hits all-time high as investors cheer Trump’s Treasury pick
• Warren Buffett speaks out against creating family wealth dynasties, gives away another $1.1 billion
• MicroStrategy acquires 55,500 more bitcoin amid stock volatility: CNBC Crypto World
• Arabica Futs “Bull Run” Surges To 13-Year High Amid Panic About Brazilian Stockpiles
• Gold tumbles 3% on reports of Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire, US Treasury pick
• Long-term Treasury bonds log biggest rally in nearly 4 months after Trump picks Bessent

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed up 426 points or 0.97%,
• Nasdaq closed up 31 points or 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed up 21 points or 0.35%,
• Gold $2,708 up $33.10 or 1.23%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.05 or 1.50%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.416 down 0.016 points or 0.361%,
• USD index $107.53 up $0.56 or 0.52%,
• Bitcoin $99,411 up $1,402 or 1.41%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 99,789)
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 583 Canada +1 to 201
  U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 583 with oil rigs up 1 to 479, gas rigs down 2 to 99 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 5.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The U.S. stock markets closed near its session highs on Friday, with the major indices showing positive momentum. The major indices closed the week with gains exceeding 1%, despite a sluggish start following the post-election rally. Market participants re-calibrated after Nvidia’s earnings, which raised questions about AI’s continued impact on stock prices. For the week, Tesla shares rose almost 4%, while Nvidia experienced a more than 3% dip. Wall Street continues to anticipate President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet selections, particularly the Treasury secretary position, which could significantly impact market dynamics. Bitcoin maintained its upward trajectory, approaching the $100,000 milestone. The cryptocurrency briefly surpassed $99,500 early Friday, buoyed by expectations of favorable crypto regulations under the incoming Trump administration. Finally, the market awaits a shortened trading week due to Thanksgiving with oil prices increasing amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran Escalates Nuclear Tensions with Advanced Centrifuge Installation
• U.S. Drilling Activity Slips Further As Market Volatility Remains
• Texas Pacific Land Replaces Marathon Oil in S&P 500 After ConocoPhillips Deal
• Geopolitical Risk and Supply Outages Underpin Oil Prices
• Is the Russia-Ukraine War Really Escalating?
• ‘I have no money’: Thousands of Americans see their savings vanish in Synapse fintech crisis
• Dow rises more than 400 points for record close, Wall Street posts weekly gain: Live updates
• The case for altcoins and memes as bitcoin, now approaching $100,000, faces a potential correction
• Bitcoin tests $100,000 heading into the weekend: CNBC Crypto World
• Egg Prices Surge Again As Grocers Face Shortages Amid Bird Flu Outbreak
• 2-year Treasury yield has 8th straight week of gains on improved U.S. outlook
• U.S. oil prices score a more than 6% weekly gain on supply risks tied to the Russia-Ukraine war

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.