07 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Fourth Session Opening In The Green, Then Trended Higher, But Closed Mixed

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 32 points or 0.08%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.10%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.13%,
  • Gold $2,323 down $8.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.02,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.455% down 0.034 points,
  • USD index $105.37 up $0.032,
  • Bitcoin $63,073 up $26 (0.04%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 5.3% in March 2024 compared with March 2023. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.8% from March 2024 to April 2024 and increase by 3.7% on a year-over-year basis from March 2024 to March 2025.

Consumer credit increased 2.4% year-over-year in March 2024 – but only up 0.0% inflation-adjusted. Revolving credit portion (like credit cards) was up 8.3% year-over-year whilst non-revolving credit (like car loans or student loans) was up 0.5% year-over-year. The use of credit is definitely trending down – and credit has been a major driver of the economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

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06 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Main Indexes Gapped Up At The Opening Bell, Trended Higher, Then Closed At Session Highs

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 177 points or 0.46%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.19%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.03%,
  • Gold $2,333 up $24.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.45,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.494% down 0.006 points,
  • USD index $105.12 up $0.090,
  • Bitcoin $62,151 down $741 (1.20%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

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03 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Gaps Up Over 400 Points At The Opening Bell, Trades Sideways, Closes Near Session Highs After Weaker-Than-Expected April Jobs Report

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 450 points or 1.18%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.99%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.26%,
  • Gold $2,309 down $0.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.86,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.500% down 0.071 points,
  • USD index $105.05 down $0.250,
  • Bitcoin $62,117 up $2,956 (4.94%),
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -8 to 605 Canada +2 to 120

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 175,000 (establishment survey) in April 2024, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.9 % (household survey). The majority of job gains occurred in health care, in social assistance, and in transportation and warehousing. There was a major discrepancy this month with the household survey only showing 25,000 jobs added (red bar in graph below) against the headlined 175,000 from the establishment survey (blue bar in graph below). Before the pandemic, it was estimated that the US economy needed to add 60,000–100,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and retirements. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee views April’s 175,000 job gains as “very solid.” It’s a sign the economy is shifting back toward pre-Covid “conventional times.

In April 2024, the ISM Services PMI® registered 49.4%, 2 percentage points lower than March’s reading of 51.4%. The composite index indicated contraction in April after 15 consecutive months of growth since a reading of 49 percent in December 2022, the first contraction since May 2020 (45.4 percent). The Business Activity Index registered 50.9 percent in April, which is 6.5 percentage points lower than the 57.4 percent recorded in March. This low reading is a warning that the services side of the economy is stalling.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

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02 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Moderately Higher, Slipped Into The Red Briefly, Then Traded Upwards Closing Sharply Higher In The Green

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 322 points or 0.85%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.51%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.91%,
  • Gold $2,314 up $2.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $0.01,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.583% down 0.008 points,
  • USD index $105.34 down $0.410,
  • Bitcoin $59,329 up $1,843 (3.20%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 64,789 job cuts in April 2024, a 28% decrease from the 90,309 cuts announced one month prior. It is also down 3.3% from the 66,995 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. So far this year, companies have announced 322,043 job cuts, down 4.6% from the 337,411 announced through April last year.

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was up 16.4% year-over-year in March 2024 – the deficit is worsening. Imports are up  2.7% year-over-year while exports are up 1.4% year-over-year. A worsening trade deficit moderates GDP.

New orders for manufactured goods in March 2024 are down 0.9% year-over-year – down 1.3% inflation adjusted.  This is directly opposite to the Federal Reserves manufacturing index which is up 1.0% year-over-year. In any event, manufacturing is not doing well in the current economy.

In the week ending April 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 210,000, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 213,250 to 213,500.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity in 1Q2024 increased 2.9% year-over-year whilst unit labor costs increased 1.8% year-over-year. As long as productivity increases faster than costs – it slows export of jobs out of the U.S.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported jobs openings they could not fill in the current period, up three points from March, which was the lowest reading since January 2021. The percent of small business owners reporting labor cost as their top small business operating problem increased one point from March to 11%, only two points below the highest reading of 13 percent reached in December 2021.  NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Hiring plans among small businesses increased once again in April, but open positions remain largely unfilled as owners struggle month after month to find employees. Overall, small businesses are not reporting net gains in employment as wage pressures and inflation keep the labor market tight.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

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01 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opens Lower, Trades Sideways Just Below The Unchanged Line, Jumps Sharply Higher Into The Green With Fed Announcement, Then Waterfalls Into Mixed Territory At The Closing Bell

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 87 points or 0.23%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.33%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.34%,
  • Gold $2,332 up $25.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $2.82,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.626% down 0.058 points,
  • USD index $106.11 down $0.120,
  • Bitcoin $59,921 down $2,905 (4.86%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The first paragraph of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting statement for 01May2024 tells the story why the federal funds rate was unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 %:

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.

Interestingly, they went on to say:

The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

The point being is that there remains significant pressure which is currently not allowing inflation to moderate – and it will not take much for inflation to accelerate.

According to ADP, private employers added 192,000 jobs in April 2024 – blue line on the graph below. The average pace of hiring has accelerated over the last three months after slowing late last year, almost matching gains made in the first half of 2023. Pay growth continues to slow. Only the information sector — telecommunications, media, and information technology — showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021. Before the pandemic, it was estimated that the US economy needed to add 60,000–100,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and retirements. However, a Brookings Institution report estimates that sustainable employment growth could be between 160,000–200,000 jobs each month. Either way, employment continues to be a bright spot in the economy.

Construction spending during March 2024 was 9.6% above March 2023. During the first three months of this year, construction spending was 10.6% above the same period in 2023. Spending on private construction was up 7.3% year-over-year whilst public construction spending was up 17.9% year-over-year. Construction is another bright spot in the economy.

The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.2 percent in April 2024, down 1.1 percentage points from the 50.3 percent recorded in March. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a key economic indicator that gauges the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. It’s published monthly by the ISM Manufacturing and Services business survey committees and is considered one of the most reliable economic barometers of the U.S. economy. Manufacturing continues its weak role in the economy.

The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March according to the JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER report (JOLTS). Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million while the number of total separations decreased to 5.2 million. The number of job openings somewhat correlates to employment growth – and both have been slowly moderating but remain above historical levels.

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30 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Finishes April Over 570 Points In The Red, Followed By Nasdaq And The S&P 500 Over One Percentage Point Down Closing At Session Lows

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 570 points or 1.49%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.04%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.57%,
  • Gold $2,305 down $53.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $0.92,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.690% up 0.080 points,
  • USD index $106.28 up $0.700,
  • Bitcoin $59,598 down $3,313 (5.05%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.3% in February 2024, up from a 6.6% increase in the previous month. Not good news for those who do not own a house.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® deteriorated for the third consecutive month in April 2024, retreating to 97.0 (1985=100) from a downwardly revised 103.1 in March. Despite these three months of weakness, the gauge continues to move sideways within a relatively narrow range that’s largely held steady for more than two years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Confidence retreated further in April, reaching its lowest level since July 2022 as consumers became less positive about the current labor market situation, and more concerned about future business conditions, job availability, and income. Despite April’s dip in the overall index, since mid-2022, optimism about the present situation continues to more than offset concerns about the future. In the month, confidence declined among consumers of all age groups and almost all income groups except for the $25,000 to $49,999 bracket. Nonetheless, consumers under 35 continued to express greater confidence than those over 35. In April, households with incomes below $25,000 and those with incomes above $75,000 reported the largest deteriorations in confidence. However, over a six-month basis, confidence for consumers earning less than $50,000 has been stable, but confidence among consumers earning more has weakened.

The Chicago Business Barometer, also known as the Chicago PMI, dropped to 37.9 in April 2024, down from 41.4 in the prior month and below market forecasts of 45. The latest reading indicated that Chicago’s economic activity contracted for the fifth successive month in April, and at a robust pace, marking the strongest decline since November 2022. The markets look to the Chicago PMI as a forward indicator of the ISM Manufacturing Index which will be released tomorrow. The Chicago PMI is showing a terrible manufacturing picture.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

 

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29 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Opened Fractionally Higher, Traded Sideways, Indexes Closed About Where They Opened

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 147 points or 0.38%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.32%,
  • Gold $2,346 down $1.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $1.12,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.624% down 0.047 points,
  • USD index $105.62 down $0.280,
  • Bitcoin $62,815 down $941 (1.48%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Texas manufacturing survey‘s output strengthened slightly in April 2024. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from -4.1 to 4.8. Other measures of manufacturing activity were mixed this month. The new orders index remained negative, though it pushed up seven points to -5.3. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes turned positive this month, coming in at 4.2 and 5.0, respectively. Manufacturing is not a bright spot in the current economy.

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26 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Caps Gapped Up At The Opening Bell, The S&P 500 Driven Higher By Tech Earnings, Markets Close Sharply Higher With The Nasdaq Over 2% higher

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 153 points or 0.40%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.03%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.02%,
  • Gold $2,351 up $6.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $0.08,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.669% down 0.037 points,
  • USD index $106.03 up $0.440,
  • Bitcoin $63,872 down $768 (1.19%),
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -6 to 613 Canada -9 to 118

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real Disposable Personal income (DPI) increased 1.4% year-over-year in March 2024 – down from 1.7% in February., according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 2 and 3). Real Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 3.1% year-over-year (up from 2.3% in February). The PCE price index increased 2.7% year-over-year (up from 2.5% in February). Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 2.8% year-over-year (little changed from February). In summary, inflation adjusted income growth is now only half of the growth in spending – and inflation is not moderating. Not sure how the Fed can cut the federal funds rate under these conditions.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

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25 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Gapped Down Over 400 Points At The Opening Bell Over GDP And Inflation Concerns, Finally Closing Higher, But Remaining In The Red

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 375 points or 0.98%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.64%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.46%,
  • Gold $2,345 up $6.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $0.94,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.704% up 0.050 points,
  • USD index $105.58 down $0.280,
  • Bitcoin $64,826 up $586 (0.61%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies fell 27% to 180 in March 2024, from the record-high 248 in February. It is up 29% from the 139 CEO exits recorded in the same month last year. March’s total is the highest for the month since the firm began tracking CEO exits in 2002. In the first quarter, 622 CEOs have announced their departures, the highest quarterly total on record. It is up 49% from the 418 exits in the first quarter of last year, and up 27% from the 489 CEO exits which occurred in the previous quarter. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. added:

C-Level leaders have had an incredibly challenging few years, and are transitioning out of their roles, whether for new opportunities or to get fresh starts elsewhere.

The advance estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.6 percent in the first quarter of 2024 – which is a fairly weak performance. However, I think this headline view is bogus as I believe year-over-year analysis provides the proper prospective. 1Q2024 growth was 3.0% year-over-year, and is only slightly lower than 4Q2024’s 3.1% and higher than 3Q2024’s 2.9%. Gross private domestic investment was very strong in 1Q2024 but was dragged down by goods purchases. As real GDP is adjusted for inflation, note that inflation price index only marginally weakened from last quarter’s 2.4% to 2.3% in 1Q2024.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity fell again in April 2024, and expectations for future activity remained flat. Prices for raw materials grew at a steady pace while finished product prices stayed the same, increasing their spread. The month-over-month composite index was -8 in April, down from -7 in March and -4 in February. Manufacturing is far from a bright spot in the current economy.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – with year-over-year growth up 0.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

March’s Pending Home Sales Index – at 78.2 – marks the best performance in a year, but it still remains in a fairly narrow range over the last 12 months without a measurable breakout. Meaningful gains will only occur with declining mortgage rates and rising inventory.

In the week ending April 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 213,250, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 214,500.

In February 2024, 2.8% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), down year-over-year from February 2023 and unchanged month over month from January 2024. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist for CoreLogic added:

The U.S. delinquency rate fell from a year earlier for the first time in six months in February, indicating that mortgage performance remains strong. The decrease in delinquencies was driven by the decline in the share of mortgages that were six months or more past due, a number that has been consistently shrinking and fell to its lowest level in 15 years in February. As later-stage delinquencies decrease, the share of mortgages in foreclosure remained at 0.3% in February, where it has been since March 2022 and only slightly higher than the all-time low.

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24 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stagnated Markets Traded Back And Forth The Unchanged Line To Finally Close Mixed And The S&P 500 Flat

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 43 points or 0.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.10%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.02%,
  • Gold $2,332 down $10.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $0.42,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.646% up 0.048 points,
  • USD index $105.81 up $0.130,
  • Bitcoin $64,050 down $2,495 (3.78%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in March 2024 increased by 1.3% year-over-year (-1.5% inflation adjusted). Honestly, this report highlights the weakness in capital goods manufacturing in the U.S.  Durable goods new orders are weak in every category.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

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