Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 162 points or 0.41%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.84%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.62%,
• Gold $2,340 up $1.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $0.39,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.427 down 0.051 points,
• USD index $105.69 down $0.210,
• Bitcoin $61,827 down $1,003 or 1.60%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 4.9% in May 2024 compared with May 2023 according to CoreLogic. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will rise by 0.7% from May 2024 to June 2024 and increase by 3% on a year-over-year basis from May 2024 to May 2025.

The number of job openings changed little at 8.1 million on the last business day of May 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.8 million and 5.4 million, respectively. I have a healthy disrespect for this particular dataset. Historically there was reasonable correlation between job openings and job growth. but something changed with the COVID recession. It is likely there are phantom job openings. Historically this dataset would suggest that there will be little change in job growth in the coming months.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Aramco Targets 60% Increase in Gas Production by 2030
• Nuclear Plants in High Demand as Tech Firms Scramble to Ramp Up AI Data Centers
• U.S. Drivers Could See The Lowest July 4 Gasoline Prices Since 2021
• Global Crude Oil Shipments Fall in June on Saudi Export Slump
• German Firms Install Solar Panels to Cut Electricity Costs
• S&P 500 closes above 5,500 for the first time as Powell highlights inflation progress, Tesla jumps: Live updates
• Powell says Fed has made ‘quite a bit of progress’ on inflation but needs more confidence before cutting
• Powell says Fed has made ‘quite a bit of progress’ on inflation but needs more confidence before cutting
• Silvergate Bank settles SEC claims it failed to monitor $1 trillion in crypto transactions: CNBC Crypto World
• Google’s carbon emissions surge nearly 50% due to AI energy demand
• Bonds & Stocks Bid As Government Job Openings Suddenly Surge
• Tesla surprises with better than expected car sales
• Treasury yields end lower for first time in three sessions as Fed chair cites improving pace of inflation

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 51 points or 0.13%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.83%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.27%,
• Gold $2,341 up $1.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $1.96,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.469 up 0.126 points,
• USD index $105.82 down $0.04,
• Bitcoin $63,205 up $537 or 0.86%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total Construction spending is up 6.4% year-over-year in May 2024 – down from 7.6% year-over-year last month. Private construction was up 5.4% year-over-year whilst public construction was up 9.7% year-over-year. As one can see from the graph below, construction spending is on a slowing trendline – but still remains a bright spot in the economy.

The Manufacturing PMI^® registered 48.5 percent in June 2024, down 0.2 percentage point from the 48.7 percent recorded in May. A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 49.3 percent, 3.9 percentage points higher than the 45.4 percent recorded in May. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 41.7 percent, down 0.7 percentage point compared to the 42.4 percent recorded in May. The bottom line is that  for the last 18 months, manufacturing has remained a weak spot in the economy with no evidence of growing strength.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Transatlantic Energy Highway: Is a Global Power Grid on the Horizon?
• Heatwave Drives Record Electricity Demand in Eastern U.S.
• Italian Oil Giant Eni to Divest Over $4B in Upstream Assets
• Trans Mountain Oil Pipeline Off to a Solid Start
• OPEC: The World Cannot Run on Renewable Energy and EVs
• China Stops Reporting Renewable Energy Utilization Data
• EU Hits Record 74% Zero-Emission Power Generation
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close higher to kick off second half’s trading: Live updates
• Chewy shares fall nearly 7% as the boost from Roaring Kitty’s new stake diminishes
• Bitcoin jumps back above $63,000 to kick off second half of 2024: CNBC Crypto World
• Collapsed bitcoin exchange Mt. Gox is about to unload $9 billion of coins onto the market. Here’s what it means
• Cocoa Prices Fall To Critical Technical Support Level On Improving Ivory Coast Outlook 
• Maersk shares jump on decision to scrap plans for DB Schenker takeover

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 45 points or 0.12%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.71%, (Closed at 17,733, New Historic high 18,035)
• S&P 500 closed down 0.41%,
• Gold $2,337 down $0.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.29,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.396 up 0.106 points,
• USD index $105.89 down $0.020,
• Bitcoin $59,943 down $1,665 or 2.70%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -7 to 581 Canada +10 to 176

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – July 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed But Little Indication The Economy Is Strengthening

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real Disposable Personal Income increased 1.1% year-over-year in May 2024 – up marginally from last month’s 0.9% gain year-over-year. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures increased 2.4% year-over-year – up from 2.3% year-over-year last month. The inflation adjustment (price index) fell from 2.7% year-over-year last month to 2.6% in May 2024. The bottom line is that today’s data is a marginal improvement BUT this is not strong data – and I see no trend lines that scream that the data is slowly improving.

The Chicago PMI unexpectedly increased to 47.4 in June 2024 from last month’s 35.4. A reading above 50 would indicate a manufacturing expansion. Pundits use the Chicago PMI as an indicator of the direction of the National PMI which will be released next week. I am not a fan of surveys, and I see no data that would explain this improvement.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Bitcoin Stumbles as Germany Liquidates $150 Million in Seized Crypto
• Supreme Court Overturns Chevron Doctrine in Landmark Decision
• U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity Plummets
• China Three Gorges Renewables to Invest $11 Billion in Integrated Power Project
• Markets Await Inflation Data as Oil Prices Continue to Rally
• Artificial Intelligence and Electric Vehicles Will Send U.S. Power Demand Soaring
• Nike CEO John Donahoe comes under fire from Wall Street after lackluster performance
• Key Fed measure shows inflation rose 2.6% in May from a year ago, as expected
• Bitcoin dips to $60,000 as the cryptocurrency heads for losing month: CNBC Crypto World
• Target Finally Gets Serious About Out-Of-Control Thefts, Lowers Intervention Threshold To Just $50
• Moody’s Predicts 24% Of Office Towers Will Be Vacant By 2026
• Treasury yields finish higher despite May’s PCE data, for two straight quarters of advances
• Bond market participants brace for bigger deficits under either Trump or Biden

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 36 points or 0.09%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.30%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.09%,
• Gold $2,337 up $23.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.02,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.288 down 0.028 points,
• USD index $105.92 down $0.130,
• Bitcoin $61,359 up $543 or 0.89%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in May 2024 remained in contraction down 1.5% year-over-year. Most sectors were down lead by civilian airplanes (Boeing). Manufacturing is not doing well in the U.S.

The third estimate of 1Q2023 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2024 – up from the 1.3% in the second estimate. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4 percent. The upward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, and upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and government spending. These revisions were partly offset by a downward revision to consumer spending.

In the week ending June 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 236,000, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 232,750 to 233,000.

Pending home sales in May 2024 year over year, pending transactions were down 6.6%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun explained:

The market is at an interesting point with rising inventory and lower demand. Supply and demand movements suggest easing home price appreciation in upcoming months. Inevitably, more inventory in a job-creating economy will lead to greater home buying, especially when mortgage rates descend.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Lithium: A Clean Energy Solution with a Dirty Secret
• Why Is BHP So Obsessed With Anglo American?
• Can Renewable Energy Sustain Our Cooling Needs During Heat Waves?
• Oil Rally Extends on Fears of Significant Escalation in Israel-Lebanon Conflict
• The Key Takeaways of the 2024 Statistical Review of World Energy
• Russia Appears to Be Amassing a Dark Fleet to Ship LNG
• There’s a big Fed inflation reading coming Friday. Here’s what to expect
• Walgreens stock plunges as drugstore chain slashes profit guidance in ‘challenging’ consumer environment
• Supreme Court blocks Purdue Pharma opioid settlement, threatening billions of dollars for victims
• Bonds, Bullion, Bitcoin, & Big-Tech (Ex-NVDA) Bid Despite Macro Meltdown
• Mortgage costs to rise for 3 million, says Bank
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at lowest in more than a week after soft first-quarter GDP estimate

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 16 points or 0.04%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.49%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.16%,
• Gold $2,310 down $20.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.19,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.318 up 0.080 points,
• USD index $106.06 up $0.460,
• Bitcoin $61,016 down $775 or 1.25%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in May 2024 were 16.5% below May 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2024 was $417,400. The average sales price was $520,000. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 481,000. This represents a supply of 9.3 months at the current sales rate. It is too early to say new home sales are slowing as this decline is being compared to peak period. Overall new home sales volumes remain about average for volumes seen in the last to years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Kenya Aborts Tax, Fuel Price Hikes After Deadly Protests Claim 22 Lives
• Where Are Global Precious Metals Prices Heading?
• Saudi Aramco Set to Buy 25% in U.S. LNG Project
• Short Sellers Destroyed As Volkswagen Gives Rivian a $5 Billion Boost
• China Puts Limits on ‘No-Limits’ Friendship’ With Russia
• Amazon reaches $2 trillion market cap for the first time
• Morgan Stanley wealth advisors are about to get an OpenAI-powered assistant to do their grunt work
• Here’s what’s next for bitcoin after the cryptocurrency returned to $60,000 this week
• Google is testing facial recognition technology for campus security, starting at site near Seattle
• Sorry Green Energy Fans, Net Zero Is A Very Unlikely Outcome
• Those new AI-powered Windows PCs really might be Apple ‘Mac killers’
• The IRS apologized to billionaire Ken Griffin, but the agency struggles to help everyday taxpayers with this ‘unconscionable’ problem

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 299 points or 0.76%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.26%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.39%,
• Gold $2,332 down $12.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.86,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.230 down 0.018 points,
• USD index $105.61 up $0.140,
• Bitcoin $61,991 up $1,728 or 2.87%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.09 in May 2024 from –0.05 in April. The CFNAI-MA3 is used for economic forecasting. Even with this month’s decline, the CFNAI-MA3 is trending up – A value below zero has been associated with the national economy expanding with below-average growth. An increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. The CFNAI is the best coincident index out there.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 7.2% in May 2024, dropping from a 7.5% increase in the previous month. Brian D. Luke, Head of Commodities, Real & Digital Assets at S&P Dow Jones Indices gave this analysis:

For the second consecutive month, we’ve seen our National Index jump at least 1% over its previous all-time high. 2024 is closely tracking the strong start observed last year, where March and April posted the largest rise seen prior to a slowdown in the summer and fall. Heading into summer, the market is at an all-time high, once again testing its resilience against the historically more active time of the year. Thirteen markets are currently at all-time highs and San Diego reigns supreme once again, topping annual returns for the last six months. The Northeast is the best performing market for the previous nine months, with New York rising 9.4% annually. Sustained outperformance of the Northeast market was last observed in 2011. For the decade that followed, the West and the South held the top posts for performance. It’s now been over a year since we’ve seen the top region come from the South or the West. Last month’s all-time high came with all 20 markets accelerating price gains. This month, just over half of our markets are seeing prices accelerate on a monthly basis. At 6.3% annual gains, the index has decelerated from the start of the year, with only two markets rising on an annual basis.

The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing activity slowed in June 2024. The composite manufacturing index decreased from 0 in May to −10 in June. Of its three component indexes, shipments fell notably from 13 to −9, new orders decreased from −6 to −17, and employment rose from −6 to −2. Manufacturing remains a soft spot in the current USA economy.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® dipped in June 2024 to 100.4 (1985=100), down from 101.3 in May. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board had this to say:

Confidence pulled back in June but remained within the same narrow range that’s held throughout the past two years, as strength in current labor market views continued to outweigh concerns about the future. However, if material weaknesses in the labor market appear, Confidence could weaken as the year progresses. Consumers expressed mixed feelings this month: their view of the present situation improved slightly overall, driven by an uptick in sentiment about the current labor market, but their assessment of current business conditions cooled. Meanwhile, for the second month in a row, consumers were a bit less pessimistic about future labor market conditions. However, their expectations for both future income and business conditions weakened, weighing down the overall Expectations Index. The decline in confidence between May and June was centered on consumers aged 35-54. By contrast, those under 35 and those 55 and older saw confidence improve this month. No clear pattern emerged in terms of income groups. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence continued to be highest among the youngest (under 35) and wealthiest (making over $100K) consumers.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Copper and Nickel Face Cooling Demand
• Texas Natural Gas Prices Turn Negative Even Amid Heat Wave
• Brazil’s Oil Surge Set to Challenge OPEC’s Market Strategy
• Renewable Energy Growth Fails To Offset Fossil Fuel Dominance
• Europe’s Top Airline to Introduce Surcharge to Cover Cost of Clean Fuel
• Here’s how bad housing affordability is now
• How Delta made itself America’s luxury airline — and what United wants to do about it
• S&P 500, Nasdaq snap three-session losing streak Tuesday as Nvidia shares rebound: Live updates
• Bitcoin miner Hut 8 soars more than 15% after announcing $150 million AI investment: CNBC Crypto World
• U.S. auto sales are expected to slow during the second half of 2024
• Bitcoin bounces above $62,000, Solana leads cryptocurrencies higher
• Why GameStop’s $2.1 billion stock sale taxes its shareholders and hurts the economy
• 2-year Treasury yield ends lower for first time in four sessions as traders await Friday’s inflation data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 261 points or 0.67%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.09%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.31%,
• Gold $2,346 up $14.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $0.99,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.244 down 0.013 points,
• USD index $105.48 down $0.320,
• Bitcoin $59,288 down $3,883 or 6.15%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – May 2024 Economic Forecast: No Real Change So Expect The Economy To Continue To Plod Along

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Outlook Survey‘s production index inched up to 0.7 from -2.8 in May 2024. The near-zero reading signals little change in output after a slight decline over the prior period. The new orders index remained slightly negative, though it has moved up steadily over the past few months to -1.3 in June from -11.8 in March. The capacity utilization index slipped to -4.8 from -2.0, while the shipments index moved back into positive territory, climbing six points to 2.8. Overall, manufacturing in the U.S. remains in the doldrums.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Investigation Reveals Russian Firms Are Exporting Stolen Ukrainian Grain
• SpaceX Leads the Way in Sustainable Space Exploration
• Why U.S. Diesel Demand Is Underwhelming
• Lithium Battery Factory Blaze in S Korea Claims 22 Lives
• British Banks Have Abandoned North Sea Oil
• Novo Nordisk to build $4.1 billion North Carolina facility to boost output of Wegovy, Ozempic
• David Rubenstein says Fed not likely to cut rates before the election
• Morgan Stanley says economic growth is bigger risk than inflation, gives quality stocks to own in a slowdown
• Bitcoin drops to $60,000 level to start the week: CNBC Crypto World
• There’s No Good Reason To Raise The Inflation Target
• 2-year Treasury yield climbs for third day as traders await PCE inflation data later in week

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 16 points or 0.04%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $2,335 down $34.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.65,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.255 up 0.001 points,
• USD index $105.82 up $0.23,
• Bitcoin $64,193 down $648 or 1.00%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 588 Canada +6 to 166

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 300 points or 0.77%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.79%, (Closed at 17,722, New Historic high 17,937)
• S&P 500 closed down 0.25%, (Closed at 5,473, New Historic high 5,506)
• Gold $2,373 up $26.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $0.77,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.256 up 0.039 points,
• USD index $105.63 up $0.38,
• Bitcoin $64,999 up $53 or 0.09%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• Gold $2,343 down $4.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.10,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.219 down 0.060 points,
• USD index $105.23 down $0.03,
• Bitcoin $64,866 down $279 or 0.43%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession