Posts by Gary Hall

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Market Summary

U.S. stocks experienced a significant rebound on Friday, driven by inflation data showing a deceleration in price increases for November 2025. Despite the Friday recovery, the major indices still finished the week lower, with the Nasdaq down 1.8% and both the Dow and S&P 500 losing around 2%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, showed a slowdown in price increases for November [We have a different view – see Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher]. Earlier in the week, the Fed signaled fewer anticipated rate cuts for 2025, which triggered a market sell-off. Potential government shutdown and Trump’s tariff threats on Europe added market pressure. All 11 S&P 500 sectors were in positive territory on Friday. Technology and semiconductor stocks saw notable gains.

 

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) was up 2.9% year-over-year (down from last month’s 3.0%) while Real Disposable Personal Income (DPI) was up 2.6% year-over-year (down from last month’s 2.9%). Inflation (as measured by the PCE price index) rose from 2.3% to 2.4% year-over-year (the index less food and energy was little changed at 2.8%). These price indices are the favored measure of inflation by the Federal Reserve. And as I have been saying all along – inflation is FAR from being under control.

The December 2024 Livingston Survey, conducted by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, provides updated economic forecasts from 24 economists regarding key macroeconomic indicators for the U.S. economy through 2026. Real GDP Growth is predicted to an annualized growth of 2.5% for the second half of 2024, with a decrease to 1.9% for both the first and second halves of 2025. The unemployment rate is expected to rise from 4.2% in December 2024 to 4.3% by June and remain at that level through December 2025, reflecting upward revisions from previous estimates. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation is projected at an annual average of 2.9% for 2024 and 2.3% for 2025, with expectations to hold steady at 2.3% in 2026. Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation is anticipated to be 1.0% in 2024, rising to 1.1% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. Short-term interest rates are expected to decline, with the three-month Treasury bill rate projected at 4.35% by the end of December 2024, decreasing to 3.40% by December 2025. The ten-year Treasury bond rate is also forecasted to fall from 4.30% in December 2024 to 4.00% by December 2025. As measured by the S&P 500 index, Stock Market Outlook prices are projected to increase significantly, reaching approximately 6050.0 at the end of December 2024 and rising to about 6920.9 by the end of 2026. Over the next decade, real GDP is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.05%, while CPI inflation is projected at 2.28%, both slightly revised upwards from previous forecasts. This survey reflects a cautious optimism among economists regarding steady growth but acknowledges potential challenges with rising unemployment and inflationary pressures in the coming years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Data Centers Are Eating the Grid Alive
• No Change to U.S. Drilling Activity Heading Into Holiday Week
• EU Ready to Discuss Closer Energy Ties with US under Trump
• Oil Prices Under Pressure as Weak Demand and Economic Uncertainty Persist
• Israel Strikes Multiple Targets in Yemen
• Bearish Sentiment Takes Hold in Oil Markets
• Dow closes nearly 500 points higher on cooler inflation data, but index posts third straight losing week: Live updates
• CFPB sues JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America and Wells Fargo over Zelle payment fraud
• Key Fed inflation measure shows 2.4% rate in November, lower than expected
• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway scoops up Occidental and other stocks during sell-off
• Bitcoin falls to $96,000 as volatility hits crypto assets: CNBC Crypto World
• As Congress works to avoid a shutdown, here’s what’s next for a bill to increase Social Security benefits for public pensioners
• Treasury yields end with second week of advances, with interest rates set to stay elevated in 2025
• FedEx’s freight-unit spinoff offers ‘early Christmas’ to Wall Street

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Market Summary

U.S. stocks stabilized on Thursday following a significant sell-off triggered by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook on interest rates yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke a ten-consecutive-day losing streak. The market decline yesterday stemmed from the Fed reducing their forecast for 2025 rate cuts from four to just two. Chair Jerome Powell described the rate cut decision as a “closer call” than anticipated. Looking ahead, investors are now focused on the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index report on Friday, which will provide further insights into inflation trends. The market’s volatility reflects ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s monetary policy and the trajectory of inflation in 2025.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are crucial economic drivers for the United States, playing a vital role in international trade and the national economy. These twin ports form the largest trade complex in North America, handling approximately 40% of all U.S. imports – and their data is released significantly earlier than other import data providing an early metric for trade. Loaded 20″ equivalent containers into the ports in November 2024 are up 20% year-over-year whilst exports are up 10% year-over-year. We can estimate that the trade balance will worsen in November 2024.

December 2024 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows the current general activity remained negative declining from -5.5 to -16.4 and fell further and the indices for new orders and shipments declined and turned negative. The employment index edged down but continued to suggest increases in employment overall. The prices paid index moved higher, while the prices received index declined; both indices continue to indicate overall increases in prices. Manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.

Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey for December 2024 shows manufacturing declined to -4 from a -2 in November (a negative number is a decline from the previous month. Manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.

The third estimate of 3Q2024 Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 2.7% year-over-year and the implicit price deflator (inflation) was 2.3% year-over-year. There was little change from the second estimate when looking at year-over-year change. In January 2025, we will get our first look at 4Q2024 GDP.

Annual U.S. rent growth registered a 1.7% increase in October 2024, down from the 2.3% year-over-year growth rate seen at the same time last year and marking the lowest rate since June 2020. Prior to 2020, single-family rent growth increased in the range of 2% to 4% for nearly a decade and averaged 3.5%. This decline is good for inflation growth but is not good for investment in rental real estate.

Total existing-home sales improved to 6.1% year-over-year. The median existing-home sales price rose 4.7% from November 2023 to $406,100, the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. I would expect a few more months of gain but the gain in median home prices will hinder overall sales growth.

In the week ending December 14, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 225,500, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 224,250. Unemployment levels are consistent with an expanding economy.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US increased by 0.3% in November 2024 to 99.7 (2016=100), nearly reversing its 0.4% decline in October. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board view:

The US LEI rose in November for the first time since February 2022. A rebound in building permits, continued support from equities, improvement in average hours worked in manufacturing, and fewer initial unemployment claims boosted the LEI in November. It’s worth noting that gains in building permits were not widespread geographically or by building type; they were concentrated mainly to the Northeast and Midwest, and on buildings with 5+ units rather than single-family dwellings. Overall, the rise in LEI is a positive sign for future economic activity in the US. The Conference Board currently forecasts US GDP to expand by 2.7% in 2024, but growth to slow to 2.0% in 2025.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Precious Metals Prices Mixed Amidst Market Volatility
• North Dakota Crude Output Cut By 520,000 b/d After October Wildfires
• Argentina’s YPF and Shell Strike $50 Billion Deal
• Israel Strikes Yemen Energy Targets in Latest Middle East Flare-Up
• China Connects One of World’s Biggest Solar Projects to the Grid
• Dow ekes out narrow gain to snap 10-day losing streak, its longest in 50 years: Live updates
• House Republicans say they have deal to avert government shutdown
• Tom Lee says ‘back up the truck’ after Wednesday’s panic selling
• Senate expected to hold final vote on bill to change Social Security rules. Here’s what leaders have said
• November home sales surged more than expected, boosted by lower mortgage rates
• Billionaire DOGE Insider Teases Musk’s ‘Really Bold’ Plans To Drain Swamp: ‘A Lot of Stuff Ready For Day One’
• Oil prices settle at lowest in over a week after Fed rattles markets
• Treasury yield curve steepens as 10-, 30-year yields end at almost 7-month highs

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Market Summary

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, but stocks plummeted as the Fed signaled fewer rate cuts for 2025 than previously anticipated. All three major indices reversed earlier gains and closed with significant losses. The Fed’s updated projections now indicate only two interest rate cuts for 2025, down from the four cuts projected in September. This change reflects higher inflation readings and expectations of elevated inflation in the future. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that caution would be exercised in considering further cuts as long as the economy and labor market remain solid. The decision wasn’t unanimous, with Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack objecting to the rate cut. In response to the Fed’s announcement: The 10-year Treasury yield rose nearly 11 basis points, approaching 4.5%. Rate-sensitive sectors experienced significant sell-offs, with the Russell 2000 index falling about 4%. The Real Estate sector in the S&P 500 also declined by almost 4%.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points, lowering the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent as expected. This marks the third consecutive rate cut in 2024, following reductions in September and November. The Fed’s statement notes that while job gains have moderated and the unemployment rate has increased slightly, it remains low overall. Inflation has eased over the past year but is still somewhat elevated, with recent months showing little progress towards the Fed’s 2% target. It’s worth noting that one member, Beth M. Hammack, voted against the rate cut, preferring to maintain the previous target range of 4-1/2 to 4-3/4 percent. This dissent reflects the ongoing uncertainty in the economic outlook and the careful balance the Fed must strike in its policy decisions. The following is the economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents. In the press conference following the FOMC meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed will likely approach future interest rate cuts cautiously and gradually. He stated that the economy’s current strength allows policymakers to make decisions with caution, emphasizing that there is no need to rush into lowering rates. He suggested that inflation might hover slightly above the target in the near future, but expects it to decrease further, albeit potentially following an uneven course. The Fed Chair has also emphasized that the central bank can afford to be “a little more cautious” regarding the pace of easing, given the strong economic conditions.

Variable	Median			Central Tendency			Range
	2024	2025	Longer run	2024	2025	Longer run	2024	2025	Longer run
Memo: Projected appropriate policy path
Change in real GDP	2.5	2.1	1.8	2.4-2.5	1.8-2.2	1.7-2.0	2.3-2.7	1.6-2.5	1.7-2.5
September projection	2.0	2.0	1.8	1.9-2.1	1.8-2.2	1.7-2.0	1.8-2.6	1.3-2.5	1.7-2.5
Unemployment rate	4.2	4.3	4.2	4.2	4.2-4.5	3.9-4.3	4.2	4.2-4.5	3.5-4.5
September projection	4.4	4.4	4.2	4.3-4.4	4.2-4.5	3.9-4.3	4.2-4.5	4.2-4.7	3.5-4.5
PCE inflation	2.4	2.5	2.0	2.4-2.5	2.3-2.6	2.0	2.4-2.7	2.1-2.9	2.0
September projection	2.3	2.1	2.0	2.2-2.4	2.1-2.2	2.0	2.1-2.7	2.1-2.4	2.0
Core PCE inflation4	2.8	2.5		2.8-2.9	2.5-2.7		2.8-2.9	2.1-3.2
September projection	2.6	2.2		2.6-2.7	2.1-2.3		2.4-2.9	2.1-2.5
Federal funds rate	4.4	3.9	3.0	4.4-4.6	3.6-4.1	2.8-3.6	4.4-4.6	3.1-4.4	2.4-3.9
September projection	4.4	3.4	2.9	4.4-4.6	3.1-3.6	2.5-3.5	4.1-4.9	2.9-4.1	2.4-3.8

Investor activity in the U.S. housing market is often associated with deep-pocketed institutional buyers. While institutional investors tend to dominate headlines, they account for only a small fraction of total investor activity. Most real estate investors are mom-and-pop landlords, who own three to 10 properties. The number of purchases that investors are making is declining.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in November 2024 is 0.2% below November 2023. Privately-owned housing starts is 14.6% below November 2023.
Privately-owned housing completions is 9.2% above November 2023. It is interesting that the number of completed housing units remains historically high with 481,000 new homes for sale in the representing about 9.5 months of supply at the current sales rate. Bottom line there are too many new homes being completed.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Copper Prices End 2024 Higher Despite Bearish Outlook
• EPA Approves California Ban Of Fossil-Fueled Cars Starting 2035
• Barclays Downgrades Energy Services Sector Amid Bearish Outlook
• EIA Confirms Smaller Than Expected Crude Inventory Draw
• World’s Coal Demand at Record High in 2024, IEA Says
• Revolutionary Guards Tighten Grip on Iran’s Oil Exports
• Dow tanks by 1,100 points, posts first 10-day losing streak since 1974: Live updates
• Fed cuts by a quarter point, indicates fewer reductions ahead
• Why Americans are outraged over health insurance — and what could change
• Bitcoin falls as Fed lowers rates by a quarter point in its final 2024 decision: CNBC Crypto World
• U.S. Supreme Court agrees to hear challenge to TikTok ban
• The Fed cut interest rates by another 25 basis points—here’s what will get cheaper
• Watch Live: Fed Chair Powell Explains Why He Cut Rates Again As Inflation Data Surges
• Long-dated Treasury yields end at nearly 7-month highs after Fed projects fewer rate cuts in 2025
• A Honda-Nissan merger would be a sign of things to come in auto industry, analyst says

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

The US stock markets experienced a significant downturn on Tuesday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average logging its most extended losing streak in 46 years – marking its ninth consecutive day of losses. This is the longest losing streak since February 1978. The downturn comes ahead of the Federal Reserve’s final interest rate decision of the year. Investors widely expect a 0.25% rate cut on Wednesday, with particular focus on potential guidance for future rate adjustments. Nvidia experienced a significant decline, dropping more than 10% from its November record. UnitedHealth Group was among the biggest losers within the Dow, falling over 3%. Some technology stocks like Tesla, Alphabet, and Apple continued to hit record highs.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2024 were up 4.0% from November 2023 (down from 4.6% year-over-year last month). This is relatively good growth and may be indicative of consumers returning to the trough.

Industrial production (IP) declined 1.9% year-over-year in November 2024 with components manufacturing declining 1.0% year-over-year, mining declining 1.3% year-over-year, and utilities growing 0.1% year-over-year. Capacity utilization stepped down to 76.8 percent in November, a rate that is 2.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2023) average. As I have been saying – manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Hurricane Fury in 2024 Slows US Gulf Energy Production
• The U.S. Desperately Needs to Protect Itself Against Future MIneral Export Bans
• Russia’s Crude Oil Shipments Slump by 11% in Two Months
• Goldman Sachs: Huge Spare Capacity Weighs on Oil Prices
• EU Solar Power Growth Slows
• Dow tumbles more than 260 points for nine-day decline, its longest since 1978: Live updates
• The Fed has a big interest rate decision coming Wednesday. Here’s what to expect
• Grubhub to pay $25 million in FTC settlement over harmful practices against diners, workers
• The Fed is likely to cut rates, but some worry it may not be the right move, CNBC survey found
• Some Honesty About Inflation
• MicroStrategy’s quirky Nasdaq-100 nod could mean more risk for fund investors
• Treasury yields hold steady after November retail sales, industrial production

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 111 points or 0.25%,
• Nasdaq closed up 247 points or 1.24%,   (New Historic high 20,205, Closed at 20,704)
• S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.38%,
• Gold $2,671 down $5.20 or 0.19%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.68 or 0.95%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.397 down 0.002 points or 0.046%,
• USD index $106.88 down $0.13 or 0.12%,
• Bitcoin $106,014 up $2,958 or 2.79%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 107,705)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Nasdaq Composite achieved a fresh record high on Monday, driven by strong performances from major tech stocks and the cryptocurrency market. Big Tech stocks hitting new record highs include Alphabet (GOOGL), Tesla (TSLA), Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), and Broadcom (AVGO). MicroStrategy’s stock surged ahead of its inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 whilst Super Micro Computer Inc. shares fell due to its upcoming removal from the Nasdaq 100. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined for its eighth consecutive session of losses. Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve’s final meeting of the year on Tuesday, with a 97% likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut. The key focus is on the Fed’s potential outlook for rate cuts in 2025, considering persistent inflation and potential policy challenges. Bitcoin reached an all-time high above $107,000. Healthcare stocks (CVS, UnitedHealth, Cigna) declined after comments from President-elect Donald Trump about pharmacy benefit managers.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey declined thirty-one points to 0.2. Last month I rode my high horse telling you this is a survey and I do not like surveys. When I was in the industry – I had my admin assistant fill out these survey forms (telling him or her not to bother me with questions – just get it done). How many people out there think that in November manufacturing was screaming good and in December things now suck. Bottom line is that I see no real end to the manufacturing recession in the USA.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Copper: The Driving Force Behind the Clean Energy Revolution
• Indonesia’s Growing Nickel Production Disrupts Global Market
• Forget Short-Term Noise: Oil Prices Are All About the Long-Term Trend
• What Does The Fall Of Assad’s Syria Mean To The Key Players In The Middle East?
• Russia’s $10 Billion Shadow Armada Exposed by Ukrainian Intelligence
• Nvidia falls into correction territory, down more than 10% from its record close
• Dow falls for an eighth day ahead of Fed, but Nasdaq notches another record: Live updates
• Broadcom jumps 11%, extending record run as Goldman expresses ‘higher conviction’
• Bitcoin rises to new record above $107,000 ahead of this week’s Fed decision
• How Will Apple Compete With $168 AI Smartphones From China?
• Intrinsic Value Of Crypto: What Is It & How To Calculate It
• 2-year Treasury yield ends at almost three-week high after strong services-sector data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 86 points or 0.20%,
• Nasdaq closed up 24 points or 0.12%, (New Historic high 20,062, Closed at 19,927)
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16 points or 0.00%,
• Gold $2,667 down $42.60 or 1.57%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.12 or 1.60%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.401 up 0.077 points or 1.781%,
• USD index $106.99 up $0.03 or 0.03%,
• Bitcoin $101,584 down $1,727 or 1.70%, (24 Hours),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. unchanged at 589 Canada -3 to 191
  U.S. Rig Count is unchanged from last week at 589 with oil rigs unchanged at 482, gas rigs up 1 to 103 and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 4.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Stocks experienced a mixed day on Friday, with Broadcom (AVGO) being the standout performer after its remarkable AI-driven forecast. Broadcom’s market capitalization exceeded $1 trillion. The company predicted a 65% increase in AI-related sales. Broadcom’s stock surged over 20%, rising more than 17% in pre-market trading. Semiconductor stocks saw varied performance: Marvell Technology and Taiwan Semiconductor rose. Nvidia and AMD experienced declines. The S&P 500 closed the week down less than 1%. The Dow fell more than 1.5%, marking its longest losing streak since February 20. The Nasdaq ended with weekly gains, closing above 20,000 for the first time. Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve’s final policy meeting on December. Recent inflation data suggests uncertainty about potential rate cuts.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Import prices were up for 0.6% last month to 1.3% year-over-year in November 2024. Export prices increased from 0.1% to 0.8% year-over-year. Increased import prices fuel inflation BUT we are seeing the dollar significantly strengthening in the last month. Further, China has announced it may devalue their currency which would further lower the pressure of inflation for imported goods.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Costly Cruise Venture Forces GM to Retreat from Robotaxi Race
• U.S. Drillers Hold The Line
• Russia Increases Cyber-attacks on Critical infrastructure, U.S. and Romania Hit
• Oil Prices Rise Alongside Geopolitical Risk
• OpenAI emails show Elon Musk wanted for-profit structure in 2017
• Apple and Google instructed by House committee to prepare to dump TikTok next month
• Elon Musk reveals SEC sent him ‘settlement demand’ after Twitter buyout probe
• Fed to cut rates next week, but signal some cautiousness about slashing more next year, says Morgan Stanley
• Broadcom stock closes up 24%, pushing company past $1 trillion market cap for the first time
• Bill Ackman Is Crushing Robin Hood Foundation’s Stock Picking Contest…By Shorting Carl Icahn
• Treasury yields end at 2- to 3-week highs as Fed struggles with last mile of inflation fight
• U.S. value stocks are tallying their longest losing streak on record. Why they could see a comeback in 2025.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 234 points or 0.53%,
• Nasdaq closed down 132 points or 0.66%,
• S&P 500 closed down 33 points or 0.54%,
• Gold $2,705 down $52.50 or 1.89%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.14 or 0.020,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.332 up 0.061 points or 1.475%,
• USD index $107.03 up $0.32 or 0.30%,
• Bitcoin $100,036 down $1,250 or 1.25%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

President-elect Donald Trump rang the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange on Thursday, but the event failed to spark a continuation of the recent market rally that followed his election victory. Instead, Wall Street experienced a downturn as investors grappled with new inflation data and its potential impact on future interest rate decisions. The major stock indices closed lower Apple (AAPL) was a notable exception, with its shares rallying slightly to close at a record high. The 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) increased by 5 basis points, reaching 4.32%, its highest closing level since November 22. Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a 0.4% increase from the previous month, higher than the expected 0.2%. The conflicting inflation data has created uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s next moves. The hotter PPI data has put focus on the chances of the Fed holding rates steady in January but the market pundits believe there will be a ¼ point reduction in December. Adobe (ADBE) shares fell nearly 14% following a downbeat revenue forecast, highlighting challenges in monetizing AI investments. Labor Market Weekly jobless claims rose to 242,000, above expectations of 220,000. However, economists caution against drawing conclusions from a single data point, especially during the volatile holiday season.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Producer Price Index for final demand rose from 2.6% to 3.0% for the 12 months ended in November, the largest rise since moving up 4.7% for the 12 months ended February 2023. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a family of indexes that measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services. It tracks inflation from the perspective of sellers and producers, rather than consumers. The PPI less food and energy advanced from 3.4% to 3.5% year-over-year. The services component of the PPI rose from 3.8% to 3.9% year-over-year whilst the goods component rose from 0.2% to 1.1% year-over-year. Like a broken record, I continue to advise inflation is far from under control.

In the week ending December 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,250, an increase of 5,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 218,250 to 218,500. It’s important to note that despite this increase, the number of claims remains relatively low by historical standards. However, here is my speculation of what this rise could be indicative of:

• The timing of the rise, occurring around the end-of-year holidays, suggests that seasonal volatility may have played a role. Claims data is often unpredictable during this period. Some experts attribute the jump to seasonal fluctuations related to the timing of Thanksgiving.
• The increase in jobless claims could be indicative of a broader trend of a cooling labor market such as: Employers have been pulling back on job openings in recent months; and Hiring has slowed as businesses grapple with high borrowing costs due to elevated interest rates; This rise in claims might be one of several indicators pointing towards a job market slowdown.
• While the labor market has remained relatively robust despite rising interest rates, recent data suggests some weakening caused by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes aimed at tackling inflation may be having a delayed impact on employment. Businesses might be adjusting their workforce in response to economic uncertainties and high borrowing costs.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Policy Shifts and Supply Chain Disruptions Drive Copper Bull Run
• Cracks Emerge in NATO Alliance as Ukraine’s Fate Hangs in the Balance
• European Energy Majors Shift Back to Oil and Gas
• China’s Drone Restrictions Deal Blow to Ukraine’s War Effort
• US Solar Industry’s Pitch to Trump Plays on President-Elect’s Key Pledges
• Dow falls more than 200 points after warm inflation report, Nasdaq retreats from record: Live updates
• Warner Bros. Discovery shares surge 15% after company announces linear, streaming restructuring
• Charts signal that an Nvidia breakdown could be imminent
• Trump reaffirms crypto commitment at New York Stock Exchange visit: CNBC Crypto World
• Gen Z to the rescue? How malls are winning over a generation of in-person shoppers
• Understanding The Anger Over Healthcare In One Picture
• “Moderate Jihad”: Syrians ‘Excited’ Over Public Executions
• Satellite Footage Reveals Iranian “Mothership” Drone Carriers Exist, Just Not Near New Jersey

10-year Treasury yield ends at nearly 3-week high after hotter-than-expected producer prices

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 99 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed up 348 points or 1.77%, (New Historic high 20,056, Closed at 20,035)
• S&P 500 closed up 49 points or 0.82%,
• Gold $2,753 up $34.90 or 1.28%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.75 or 2.55%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.271 up 0.050 points or 1.185%,
• USD index $106.98 up $0.28 or 0.26%,
• Bitcoin $101,200 up $4,665 or 4.61%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The tech heavy NASDAQ experienced a significant rally on Wednesday, the S&P also rallied, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a slight decline. Alphabet (Google) shares hit a record high, rising more than 5%. Tesla, Meta, and Amazon also reached record highs. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased: 2.7% year-over-year in November (slightly up from October’s 2.6%). Core inflation rose 0.3% month-over-month. Market pumpers believe consistent inflation data, reinforces expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely cut interest rates by 25 basis points in its December meeting with most economists anticipating a potential pause in January. These figures align with economists’ expectations. Bitcoin soared, trading above $101,300. MicroStrategy and Coinbase stocks saw significant gains, rising about 6%.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 2.7% year-over-year in November 2024, after rising 2.6% year-over-year the previous month. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.3% over the last 12 months (unchanged from the previous month). Looking at the data, I do not see how the Federal Reserve believes the fight with inflation had gotten to the point the Federal Funds rate could be lowered. There remains significant inflationary pressures. On the other hand, I do not believe monetary policy is the controlling factor – and that it is fiscal policy which is inflationary and which is controlled by Congress. 

Although the U.S. foreclosure rate stayed roughly the same as last year in September 2024, the share of loans 30 or more days past due increased year over year.  The data shows that currently consumers are under some economic stress as the current loan performance data appears to be degrading.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• AI and Chip Manufacturing Drive Japan’s Nuclear Energy Expansion
• U.S. Inflation Rises, But Falling Gas Prices Bring Holiday Relief
• Exxon to Increase Oil Production by 18% By 2030
• OPEC Cuts Oil Demand Projections A 5th Straight Month
• The Lithium Glut Could Persist Until 2027
• Germany’s Gas Use and Power Prices Jump Amid Weak Wind Generation
• Tesla shares climb to record, boosted by 69% pop since Trump election victory
• Nasdaq surges for first close above 20,000, lifted by Alphabet shares: Live updates
• ETFs cross $1 trillion of inflows in 2024, extending record year
• Here’s the inflation breakdown for November 2024 — in one chart
• T-bill rates fall below 4.4% after November CPI solidifies December rate cut
• U.S. oil prices top $70 for first time in over 2 weeks on concerns over tight supply
• Alphabet’s stock having best 2-day run in a decade as the good news keeps coming

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 154 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed down 49 points or 0.25%, (New Historic high 19,887, Closed at 19,737)
• S&P 500 closed down 18 points or 0.30%,
• Gold $2,719 up $32.70 or 1.21%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 up $0.03 or 0.04%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.224 up 0.025 points or 0.595%,
• USD index $106.41 up $0.27 or 1.24%,
• Bitcoin $96,576 down $1,198 or 1.21%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stock markets experienced slight declines. Alphabet’s shares (Google’s parent company) jumped by over 4% following the announcement of breakthroughs in quantum computing with its new Willow quantum chip. This development initially boosted the tech sector but failed to sustain overall market gains. Oracle shares fell more than 7% after reporting quarterly revenue that fell short of expectations due to intense competition in the cloud computing space. Despite reporting a 34% year-on-year increase in November revenue, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.’s stock slipped nearly 3% as the figure represented a decline from the previous month. Anticipation of CPI Report Investors are keenly awaiting Wednesday’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which is expected to show: Headline inflation of 2.7%, slightly up from October’s 2.6%. Core inflation (excluding food and gas) of 3.3% year-over-year. The CPI report is crucial for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision, with many anticipating a potential rate cut in December if inflation continues to show signs of cooling.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose by eight points in November to 101.7, after 34 months of remaining below the 50-year average of 98. This is the highest reading since June 2021. Of the 10 Optimism Index components, nine increased, none decreased, and one was unchanged. Not a fan of surveys – but business confidence indices above 100 suggest increased confidence in near-future business performance, which can be used to anticipate turning points in economic activity. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

The election results signal a major shift in economic policy, leading to a surge in optimism among small business owners. Main Street also became more certain about future business conditions following the election, breaking a nearly three-year streak of record high uncertainty. Owners are particularly hopeful for tax and regulation policies that favor strong economic growth as well as relief from inflationary pressures. In addition, small business owners are eager to expand their operations.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ Crumbles
• CME’s New 1-Ounce Gold Futures: A Game-Changer or a Paper Tiger?
• Trump Urges Putin to Seize Moment, Make Ukraine Deal
• EV Battery Pack Prices Drop the Most in Seven Years
• Saudi Arabia Accelerates $2.5 Trillion Mining Plans To Cut Oil Reliance
• Oil Prices Remain Under Pressure Despite Geopolitical Risk
• Alphabet shares jump 5% after Google touts ‘breakthrough’ quantum chip
• Dow falls more than 100 points to notch four losing days as year-end rally takes a breather: Live updates
• The CPI report Wednesday is expected to show progress on inflation has hit a wall
• Bitcoin continues pullback from all-time highs, trading near $96,000: CNBC Crypto World
• Treasury Yields Drop After 3Y Auction Tails But Is Otherwise Solid
• UnitedHealth shooting sparks security fears for execs but fixes are expensive and complicated

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 241 points or 0.54%,
• Nasdaq closed down 123 points or 0.62%, (New Historic high 19,873, Closed at 19,737)
• S&P 500 closed down 37 points or 0.61%,
• Gold $2,680 up $20.70 or 0.78%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 up $0.95 or 1.41%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.195 up 0.042 points or 1.011%,
• USD index $106.14 up $0.09 or 0.06%,
• Bitcoin $94,440 down $4,911 or 5.20%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

U.S. stock markets experienced a pullback on Monday, with major indices declining amid several key developments: Nvidia shares slid more than 2.5% after China’s State Administration of Market Regulation launched an antitrust investigation into the chipmaker. The probe focuses on Nvidia’s 2020 acquisition of Mellanox and potential anti-monopoly law violations. Investors are preparing for Wednesday’s November Consumer Price Index (CPI) data which will be crucial in shaping expectations for the Federal Reserve’s potential interest rate cut on December 18. Despite the day’s pullback, there’s underlying optimism about the market’s trajectory. Oppenheimer’s chief investment strategist set a year-end 2025 S&P 500 target of 7,100, the highest among tracked strategists. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks saw gains after hints of potential monetary stimulus from Beijing. Geopolitical events like the situation in Syria have not significantly impacted market sentiment Sectors like Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology continue to lead market returns.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

October 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.9% from the revised October 2023 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 0.9% from the revised October 2023 level.  The October inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.34. The October 2023 ratio was 1.34. As I have stated, I do not think one can understand the economy from wholesale data as the supply chains continue to be in a state of flux and it is hard to compare today’s wholesale with past wholesale data.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• National Gasoline Prices Fall Below $3 Per Gallon
• U.S. Manufacturing Power Wanes as China’s Influence Soars
• Challenges Mount in California’s Fuel Market
• Oil Prices Rise After China Vows to Ramp Up Monetary Stimulus
• Iran’s Uranium Enrichment Surge Sparks International Concern
• Nuclear Power Wouldn’t Be a Cost-Effective Solution for Australia
• UnitedHealthcare CEO killing: Luigi Mangione ID’d as person of interest, arrested on gun charge
• Dow drops more than 200 points, S&P 500 pulls back from record as Nvidia slides: Live updates
• Nvidia shares fall after China opens investigation over possible violation of antimonopoly law
• A Florida ‘condo cliff’ is coming as owners deal with fallout from 2021 Surfside collapse
• Bitcoin retreats from $100,000 as falling Nvidia shares weigh on risk assets: CNBC Crypto World
• Zelensky Rejects Trump’s Demand For Ukraine Peace After Paris Meeting
• How investors can position for bond ‘vigilantism’ and a growing U.S. debt load, according to Pimco

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.