Posts by Gary Hall

EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01February2025 . Note that the stock markets will not be open tomorrow. The stock markets and government offices will be closed on Thursday, January 9, 2025, in observance of a national day of mourning for former President Jimmy Carter. Therefore there will be no newsletter tomorrow.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 107 points or 0.25%,
• Nasdaq closed down 11 points or 0.06%,
• S&P 500 closed up 9 points or 0.16%,
• Gold $2,681 up $15.50 or 0.590%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.91 or 1.21%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.677 up 0.006 points or 0.128%,
• USD index $109.01 up $0.47 or 0.43%,
• Bitcoin $93,811 down $2,805 or 2.99%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

US stocks showed mixed performance on Wednesday as investors reacted to reports of President-elect Donald Trump potentially declaring a national economic emergency to implement proposed tariffs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average saw slight gains, while the NASDAQ Composite closed marginally lower. The market was influenced by several key factors. Trump’s potential tariff plans: CNN reported that Trump is considering using emergency powers to enact his proposed tariff framework, which has caused some market uncertainty. Minutes from the Fed’s December meeting indicated support for a gradual pace of interest rate cuts in 2025. Recent strong economic indicators, including service sector growth and job openings, have raised concerns about persistent inflation. The 10-year Treasury yield remained around 4.7%, reflecting market expectations of potentially slower interest rate cuts. Private sector job growth slowed in December, but unemployment claims unexpectedly fell, suggesting a stable labor market. Investors are closely monitoring these developments as they assess the economic outlook and potential policy shifts under the incoming Trump administration.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2025 Economic Forecast: Little Change And Still Indicating a Weak Economy – One Recession Flag Removed

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 122,000 jobs in December 2024 according to ADP. Hiring slowed in several industries. Employment in manufacturing shrank for the third straight month. Pay gains continued to slow. Year-over-year pay for job stayers was up 4.6 percent. For job-changers, pay rose 7.1 percent.  Most of this year, one month ADP has higher employment gains – then the next month, the BLS has higher gains,. If this pattern continues – the BLS employment gains in  December will be less than 122,000. But 122,000 is far from stellar growth, and below the growth necessary to employ new entrants to the labor force. According to Nela Richardson, Chief Economist, ADP:

The labor market downshifted to a more modest pace of growth in the final month of 2024, with a slowdown in both hiring and pay gains. Health care stood out in the second half of the year, creating more jobs than any other sector.

November 2024 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.9% from the revised November 2023 level. Total inventories were up 0.8% from the revised November 2023 level. The November inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.33. The November 2023 ratio was 1.35. I am sure that NOBODY in government knows really what a wholesaler is – and the statistics are likely garbage. The inventory to sales ratios are little changed which normally indicates there is no inventory gain (which is a sign of recession).

In the week ending January 4, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 213,000, a decrease of 10,250 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 223,250. The unemployment claims are low historically and consistent with a growing economy.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in December 2024 provided updated economic projections and insights into monetary policy decisions. Note that I do not believe inflation is under control as any new development could set off another round of inflation. Key points include:

Economic Projections

• • Real GDP growth: Median projection revised upward to 2.5% for 2024 and 2.1% for 2025.
  • Unemployment rate: Projected to be 4.2% in 2024, slightly lower than previous estimates.
  • Inflation: PCE inflation projections raised for 2024 (2.4%) and 2025 (2.5%).

Monetary Policy

• • The federal funds rate was lowered by 25 basis points to a range of 4.25% to 4.5%.
  • FOMC members anticipate two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2025, totaling 50 basis points.
  • The median projection for the federal funds rate at the end of 2025 is now 3.9%, up from 3.4% in September.

Economic Outlook

• • Inflation is expected to continue moving towards the 2% target, but the process may take longer than previously anticipated. Several participants observed that the disinflationary process may have stalled temporarily or noted the risk that it could.
  • Economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with consumer spending stronger than expected. Participants believe the strength of economic activity was unlikely to be a source of upward inflation pressures.
  • Labor market conditions are gradually easing while remaining solid overall.

Risks and Uncertainties

• • Upside risks to inflation have increased due to recent higher-than-expected readings and potential policy changes.
  • Uncertainties remain regarding the effects of potential changes in trade and immigration policies – bottom line they were worried about Trump.
  • The Committee views risks to its dual mandate objectives as roughly balanced.

The FOMC indicated a cautious approach to future policy decisions, emphasizing the need to carefully assess evolving economic conditions and maintain flexibility in monetary policy adjustments.

According to the Federal Reserve, “In November, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.8 percent. Revolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 12 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 2 percent.” Two things: 1) this data is not inflation adjusted and at least 2% should be subtracted from growth for inflation; and 2) I prefer year-over-year analysis which shows total consumer credit is up 1.7% year-over-year with components revolving credit (credit cards) up 3.6% year-over-year and nonrevolving credit (like car loans and student loans) up 1.0% year-over-year. The trend lines show less and less reliance on credit for consumer spending which constrains consumer spending.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• New Railway to Connect China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan
• Taliban Takeover of Afghanistan Fuels Militancy in Pakistan
• Chevron Targets $6-8 bln In Free Cash Flow Growth By 2026
• DOE Issues $1.8B Loan Guarantee To Arizona Utility For Renewable Energy
• Guyana’s Crude Oil Exports Surged by 54% in 2024
• Higher Taxes Could Slow China’s Fuel Oil Imports
• Trump Not Ruling Out Force in Threats to Take Over Panama Canal
• Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is ‘dead wrong’ about quantum computers, D-Wave CEO says
• First major stock benchmark nears correction as small-cap Russell 2000 trade unravels
• Judge approves Tesla directors’ nearly $1 billion deal to end excess pay case
• Bitcoin falls to $94,000, giving back most of 2025’s early gains: CNBC Crypto World
• This January indicator is an ‘early warning system’ for how the year will go
• FOMC Minutes Show ‘Almost All’ Fed Members See Higher Inflation Risks, Cite Trump Policies
• Most Fed officials were worried about higher inflation, but not enough to put rate hikes on the table, minutes of December meeting show

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01February2025 .

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 178 points or 42%,
• Nasdaq closed down 375 points or 1.89%,
• S&P 500 closed down 66 points or 1.11%,
• Gold $2,665 up $17.30 or 0.065%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 up $0.71 or 0.95%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.693 up 0.077 points or 1.668%,
• USD index $108.67 up $0.42 or 0.38%,
• Bitcoin $96,810 down $5,363 or 5.54%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

US stocks closed lower on Tuesday, reversing early gains as investors reassessed economic data and Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. The 10-year Treasury yield rose about 7 basis points to just below 4.7%. Key economic data releases influenced market sentiment: The ISM manufacturing PMI showed continued expansion, but the prices paid index jumped to a nearly two-year high of 64.4, raising inflation concerns. JOLTS job openings increased more than expected in November, while hiring slowed and the quits rate decreased. These reports led investors to push back expectations for Fed rate cuts, with traders now placing a less than 50% chance of a cut before June 2025. NVIDIA, which had reached a record close on Monday, reversed course and fell over 6%, becoming the Dow’s worst performer despite CEO Jensen Huang’s CES keynote unveiling new AI products. The labor market showed signs of cooling, with the hiring rate falling to 3.3% and the quits rate dropping to 1.9%, both now lower than pre-pandemic levels. This data suggests a “no hire, no fire” labor market environment, according to Oxford Economics. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s December jobs report for further insights into the labor market and potential implications for Fed policy.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2025 Economic Forecast: Little Change And Still Indicating a Weak Economy – One Recession Flag Removed

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

November 2024 exports were up 5.7% year-over-year while imports were up 8.1% year-over-year – the trade balance worsened by 20.8% year-over-year. The trend lines continue to show a an ever worsening trade balance with no end in sight.

The number of private job openings grew modestly from 6.9 million to 7.2 million on the last business day of November 2024. Studies by the Philly Fed have shown no correlation to economic or jobs growth with the hires and separations portion of JOLTS. I would expect a reasonably good jobs report (compared to the growth seen in 2024) this Friday based on  this JOLTS data.

In December 2024, the ISM Services PMI^® registered 54.1%, 2 percentage points higher than November. The Business Activity sub-index registered 58.2% in December, 4.5 percentage points higher than November. The New Orders sub-index recorded a reading of 54.2% , 0.5 percentage point higher than November. For the last 2 years, this index has generally remained in a tight band. As the U.S. is a services economy – this reading suggests little change in economic growth.

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 3.4% in November 2024 compared with November 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.06% in November 2024 compared with October 2024. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicates that home prices will increase by 3.8% on a year-over-year basis from November 2024 to November 2025.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Trump Pledges Swift Reversal of Biden’s Offshore Drilling Ban
• Is U.S. Nuclear Power at Risk? Russia’s Uranium Restrictions Explained
• Trump’s Trade Policies Spark Rare Earth Uncertainty
• Trump Considers Executive Order to Protect Natural Gas Appliances
• Dollar Dominance Dwindles as Central Banks Diversify Reserves
• Dow falls more than 170 points, Nasdaq loses nearly 2% as Nvidia leads tech selloff: Live updates
• Howard Marks sees cautionary signs of a bubble, says investors shouldn’t ignore today’s high market valuation
• Meta employees criticize Zuckerberg decisions to end fact-checking, add Dana White to board
• Trump warns ‘all hell will break out’ if Gaza hostages not released by his inauguration
• Trump won’t rule out using U.S. military to control Panama Canal or Greenland
• 159 Democrats Voted Against Laken Riley Bill To Detain Criminal Illegals
• Intel On The Brink Of Death Due To Culture Rot Says Scathing Report
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at highest since April as inflation worries grow
• Tech stocks are getting slammed because economic data sparked jump in bond yields

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01February2025 .

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 26 points or 0.06%,
• Nasdaq closed up 243 points or 1.24%,
• S&P 500 closed up 33 points or 0.55%,
• Gold $2,645 down $9.90 or 0.037%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.55 or 0.74%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.620 up 0.025 points or 0.544%,
• USD index $108.26 down $0.69 or 0.63%,
• Bitcoin $102,322 up $4,216 or 4.12%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

US stocks rose on Monday, led by a rally in chip stocks. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite climbed while the Dow Jones Industrial Average dipped marginally. The tech sector drove gains, with Nvidia shares rising over 3% to a record high and Micron Technology surging more than 10%. The rally was fueled by optimism around AI-driven growth after NVIDIA server partner Foxconn reported record revenue and a strong sales forecast. Investors are now anticipating Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s keynote speech at the CES tech conference for updates on the company’s new Blackwell chip. Disney confirmed plans to merge its Hulu + Live TV business with FuboTV, sending Fubo shares soaring nearly 250%. Bitcoin prices traded above $102,000 per token, surpassing $100,000 for the first time since December 19. The 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly. The US dollar index dropped sharply following reports of potential limited tariffs under the incoming Trump administration, but later pared some losses after Trump disputed the report. Markets will be closed on Thursday to mourn the death of former President Jimmy Carter, with attention focused on the release of December nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. In international news, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigned as Liberal Party leader, potentially reshaping Canada’s trade relationship with the US under a second Trump administration.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2025 Economic Forecast: Little Change And Still Indicating a Weak Economy – One Recession Flag Removed

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

no releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Germany And Italy Have Replaced Russian Gas Via Ukraine
• Nickel Prices Slump as EV Boom Fails to Materialize
• Venezuela Sees Jump in Oil Exports
• Biden Bans Oil Drilling in Huge Coastal Areas Ahead of Trump Inauguration
• Fubo stock skyrockets 250% after streamer strikes a deal to combine with Disney’s Hulu+ Live TV
• Nvidia nears high, chip stocks soar after Foxconn reports record revenue
• U.K. visitors from dozens of countries will have to pay a new entry fee starting this week
• Bitcoin trades above $100,000 for first time since mid-December: CNBC Crypto World
• Chrysler sales have shrunk 80% in two decades. Here’s how executives plan to bring it back
• More Details Emerge Of Plan To Kill Supreme Court Justice
• Nippon and US Steel sue government over blocked deal
• $119 billion of U.S. government debt to be issued this week, raising questions about demand
• 30-year Treasury yield ends at highest since November 2023 after report of Trump tariff plans

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01March2025 . All newsletter subscribers need to sign up for the EconCurrents Substack’s Newsletter by [clicking here].

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 152 points or 0.36%,
• Nasdaq closed down 30 points or 0.16%,
• S&P 500 closed down 13 points or 0.22%,
• Gold $2,673 up $32.60 or 1.190%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $1.35 or 1.88%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.559 down 0.018 points or 0.039%,
• USD index $109.27 up $0.78 or 0.72%,
• Bitcoin $97,101 up $1,771 or 2.64%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Stock markets experienced a volatile start to 2025, with major indexes erasing earlier gains and ending the first trading day lower. Tesla shares slumped nearly 6% after reporting lower vehicle deliveries. Apple dropped over 2.5% due to price discounts in China. The market came off a strong 2024, with the S&P 500 achieving two consecutive years of over 20% gains. The US Dollar Index rose above 109, reaching its highest level since November 2022. Investors are cautiously optimistic about 2025, with Bank of America suggesting potential for a 10% return in the next 12 months, though the extraordinary 20%+ annual returns of recent years may be behind us. The trading day reflected ongoing market uncertainty, with initial optimism giving way to declines, particularly in technology and electric vehicle stocks.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2025 Economic Forecast: Little Change And Still Indicating a Weak Economy – One Recession Flag Removed

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during November 2024 is 3.0% above November 2023. Spending on private construction is up 2.5% year-over-year and public construction is up 4.6% year-over-year. Note in the graph below that for the last year, construction spending growth has been moderating. Construction spending has been a major bright spot in the economy – and that bright spot is becoming dim.

The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing PMI^® was 48.4% in November – 1.9 percentage points higher compared to October. The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. The November reading of the Production Index (46.8 percent) is 0.6 percentage point higher than October’s figure of 46.2 percent. The bottom line is that manufacturing continues in contraction according to this survey/

In the week ending December 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 223,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 226,500 to 226,750.  This data is consistent with an expanding economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• What Next for US LNG After Ukraine Gas Transit Halts?
• India’s Steel Industry Threatened by Record Chinese Imports
• Dallas Survey: The Oil & Gas Outlook Is Finally Improving
• Oil Rallies Despite Large Jump in Fuel Inventories
• Tesla Stock Dips as Annual Deliveries See First Decline Since 2011
• 89% of New Cars Sold in Norway Last Year Were EVs
• Stocks close lower in volatile start to 2025 as S&P 500 losing streak grows: Live updates
• Meta replaces Global Affairs President Nick Clegg with Joel Kaplan ahead of Trump inauguration
• Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway beats S&P 500 in 2024, posts 9th straight up year
• Regulatory clarity could drive bitcoin to $225,000 this year, says H.C. Wainwright
• Mortgage demand dives nearly 22% to end 2024
• Officials ID person who rented Cybertruck used in explosion outside of Las Vegas Trump hotel
• Cryptocurrencies jump to start 2025, bitcoin rises back above $97,000
• 10-year Treasury yield ends not far from 7-month high as new trading year begins

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

EconCurrents is transitioning to Substack in 2025. The existing newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01March2025 . All newsletter subscribers need to sign up for the EconCurrents Substack’s Newsletter by [clicking here].

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 29 points or 0.07%,
• Nasdaq closed down 176 points or 0.90%,
• S&P 500 closed down 25 points or 0.43%,
• Gold $2,638 up $20.00 or 0.760%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $0.08 or 1.13%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.573 up 0.028 points or 0.616%,
• USD index $108.44 up $0.31 or 0.29%,
• Bitcoin $93,551 down $636 or 0.68%, (24 Hours),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

US stocks experienced a decline on Tuesday, December 31, 2024, as they wrapped up a year characterized by significant gains. Despite this dip, the S&P 500 is up approximately 23.8% for the year, the NASDAQ is up nearly 30%, and the Dow has gained around 13%. The year was marked by a strong performance driven largely by advancements in artificial intelligence and the so-called “Magnificent Seven” tech stocks. This rally occurred alongside a notable shift in monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve implementing its first interest rate cut in four years and investor optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump’s return to office. In commodities, gold has risen over 27% this year, marking its largest annual gain since 2010, while Bitcoin has surged over 100%, although it recently retreated from earlier highs. However, recent trading sessions have shown a slowdown, contrasting with the typical “Santa Claus” rally that often occurs at year-end.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2025 Economic Forecast: Little Change And Still Indicating a Weak Economy – One Recession Flag Removed

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 4.2% in October 2024, dropping from a 4.6% increase in the previous month. Home price growth continues to moderate across the U.S.  Brian D. Luke, CFA at S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller perspective:

Our National Index hit its 17th consecutive all-time high, and only two markets – Tampa and Cleveland – fell during the past month. The annual returns continue to post positive inflation-adjusted returns but are falling well short of the annualized gains experienced this decade. Markets in Florida and Arizona are rising, but not keeping up with inflation, and are well off the over 10% gains annually from 2020 to present. This has allowed other markets to catch up. With the latest data covering the period prior to the election, our national index has shown continued improvement. Removing the political uncertainly risk has led to an equity market rally; it will be telling should the similar sentiment occur among homeowners.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Gold Price Rally Set to Continue in 2025
• The Factors That Will Drive Oil Prices in 2025
• Red Sea Shipping Rebound Forecasted for Late 2025
• Ukraine To Quadruple Gas Transport Fees After Russia Deal Expires
• Europe Faces Coldest Winter Spell As Gas Supply Concerns Mount
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Set for Lowest Annual Average Since 2021 Next Year
• S&P 500 posts 23% gain for 2024 as stocks close slightly lower in final session of year
• Silicon Valley’s turn of fortune: Intel has worst year ever, while Broadcom enjoys record gain
• Nearly all of Puerto Rico is without power on New Year’s Eve
• Grayscale’s Zach Pandl reveals how politics and the economy are driving bitcoin’s bull run
• A New Year’s Resolution: Let’s Get The US Out Of The Censorship Business
• Market Outlook For 2025: Stuck Between An Inflationary Rock And An Economic Hard Place
• Instead of sipping Champagne on New Year’s Eve, it may be time to invest in it

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

EconCurrents will be transitioning to Substack in 2025. This newsletter will be discontinued no later than 01 March 2025 . All newsletter subscribers need to sign up for the EconCurrents Substack’s Newsletter by [clicking here].

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 418 points or 0.97%,
• Nasdaq closed down 235 points or 1.19%,
• S&P 500 closed down 64 points or 1.07%,
• Gold $2,622 down $10.30 or 0.38%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $0.53 or 0.76%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.539 down 0.08 points or 1.732%,
• USD index $108.07 up $0.07 or 0.07%,
• Bitcoin $93,991 up $340 or 0.36%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights – Market Summary

Stocks experienced a decline on Monday as the major indexes continued to struggle in the final week of 2024. This downturn followed a previous week marked by significant losses in major tech stocks, including Tesla and Nvidia, which contributed to a Friday decline of 1.5% for the NASDAQ and over 1% for the S&P 500. The anticipated “Santa Claus” rally, historically a positive period for the stock market, has not materialized this year. Since December 24, the S&P 500 is down nearly 1%, contrasting with its typical average gain of 1.3% during this timeframe since 1950. With only two trading days left in the year, investors remain hopeful for a rebound, as the S&P 500 has seen a substantial increase of over 25% throughout 2024, while the NASDAQ has risen more than 30%. In other news, trading on January 9 will be closed in honor of former President Jimmy Carter, who passed away at age 100. Despite current market challenges, analysts maintain that the underlying fundamentals supporting this year’s market gains remain intact, suggesting potential buying opportunities in early 2025.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2025 Economic Forecast: Little Change And Still Indicating a Weak Economy – One Recession Flag Removed

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) grew 6.9% year-over-year. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. Will the growth in home sales be increasing? A year ago home sales where terrible – so growing year-over-year is not saying much. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Consumers appeared to have recalibrated expectations regarding mortgage rates and are taking advantage of more available inventory. Mortgage rates have averaged above 6% for the past 24 months. Buyers are no longer waiting for or expecting mortgage rates to fall substantially. Furthermore, buyers are in a better position to negotiate as the market shifts away from a seller’s market.

Dallas Fed Manufacturing activity increased in December with the production index rose to 3.9 from a near-zero reading last month. Other measures of manufacturing activity were mixed. The new orders index shot up 11 points to -0.9, suggesting demand was unchanged from November. The capacity utilization and shipments indexes both edged up but remained in negative territory, coming in at -2.5 and -2.0, respectively. Overall, this is a survey and based on opinion. Other regional surveys show contraction – and data shows manufacturing is in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Biden Administration’s Final Aid Package to Ukraine Aims to Bolster Defense
• Carlos Slim Invested $1B In American Oil & Gas Companies In 2024
• Ukraine To Quadruple Gas Transport Fees After Russia Deal Expires
• Exxon and Chevron Expand Global Hiring Push
• Europe Faces Coldest Winter Spell As Gas Supply Concerns Mount
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Set for Lowest Annual Average Since 2021 Next Year
• Turkey Says It’s Ready to Supply Electricity to Syria and Lebanon
• Indian BPCL Boosts Middle East Oil Purchases as Russian Supply Dwindles
• Oil Prices Flatline as 2024 Draws to a Close
• Natural gas surges as much as 20% on expectations for colder-than-usual January on the East Coast
• NYSE to close on Jan. 9 in honor of the late former President Jimmy Carter
• Treasury yields dip as final trading week of 2024 kicks off
• Biden’s Weaponized J6 Prosecutor Reportedly Resigns
• Javier Blas: Prepare For A Turbulent 2025 In Coffee, Oil, & Other Commodity Markets
• Government Spending Will Cause The Next Financial Crisis

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 334 points or 0.77%,
• Nasdaq closed down 298 points or 1.49%,
• S&P 500 closed down 67 points or 1.11%,
• Gold $2,632 down $21.40 or 0.81%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.60 or 0.86%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.631 up 0.052 points or 1.136%,
• USD index $108.02 down $0.11 or 0.01%,
• Bitcoin $94,500 down $1,238 or 1.29%,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count unchanged at 589 in the US – but the Canadian rig count fell from 166 to 96

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 29 points or 0.07%,
• Nasdaq closed down 11 points or 0.05%,
• S&P 500 closed down 2 points or 0.04%,
• Gold $2,654 up $18.90 or 0.71%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.56 or 0.78%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.581 down 0.006 points or 0.087%,
• USD index $108.12 down $0.08 or 0.07%,
• Bitcoin $95,314 down $4,046 or 4.07%

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 390 points or 0.91%,
• Nasdaq closed up 266 points or 1.35%,
• S&P 500 closed up 66 points or 1.10%,
• Gold $2,633 up $5.00 or 0.19%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.83 or 1.20%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.593 down 0.006 points or 0.131%,
• USD index $108.23 up $0.19 or 0.18%,
• Bitcoin $98,566 up $3,814 or 4.03%

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond manufacturing survey remained in contractionary territory in December 2024. The composite manufacturing index ticked up slightly to −10 in December from −14 in November. Of its three component indexes, shipments and employment were relatively flat, while new orders improved to −11 from −19 in November. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.