Updated at 3:05 pm Wednesday, January 11, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023
Valid 00Z Thu Jan 12 2023 - 00Z Sat Jan 14 2023
...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern
California through Friday...
...Heavy snow for New England and rain/freezing rain over parts of the New
England and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley...
...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast on Thursday...
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY
FRIDAY
I try to keep the above maps updated. They only update twice a day and in some cases once a day.
I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later you can get updates by clicking HERE.
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Low pressure over the Southern/Central Plains will move northeastward to New England by Friday evening. The system will produce snow over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley and rain and embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. As the storm moves farther eastward, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the Southeast aiding in the production of showers and severe thunderstorms, on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail. The threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Friday. Furthermore, a weak wave of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes on Wednesday evening will merge with the low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley by Thursday. The system will produce light snow over parts of the Upper Great Lakes and light rain over the Lower Great Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday moving into parts of the Northeast on Thursday morning. As the precipitation moves into the Northeast overnight, a few pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over the area. Overnight Thursday, rain moves into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and heavy snow develops over Northern New England. In addition, a slightly broader spread of rain/freezing rain will also develop over Northern New England. On Friday morning, light snow will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley into the Central Appalachians, continuing over the Central Appalachians on Friday evening. Meanwhile, moisture from the Pacific will stream into the West Coast, producing heavy rain over parts of Northern California and rain and higher elevation snow over other parts of California and the Pacific Northwest through Friday evening. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern California from Wednesday to Friday evening. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn scars the most vulnerable.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the current precipitation forecast and the 10-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and additional information can be obtained HERE
Much of this information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking h ere Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
