Updated at 6:58 p.m. January 3, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours from Tuesday afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This article also includes World weather forecasts.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Tue Jan 03 2023
Valid 00Z Wed Jan 04 2023 - 00Z Fri Jan 06 2023
...Heavy snow across parts of the Upper Midwest through Wednesday while
freezing rain and a wintry mix spreads into northern New England by
Thursday...
...Severe thunderstorms and instances of flash flooding likely across
portions of the Southeast tonight...
...Strong atmospheric river to produce heavy rain, damaging winds, rough
surf, and heavy mountain snow across much of California into southern
Oregon on Wednesday and Thursday...
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, EVENING, AND OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY
THURSDAY
I try to keep the above maps updated. They only update twice a day and in some cases once a day.
I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later you can get updates by clicking HERE .
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
Two major storm systems are anticipated to impact the Nation over the next few days, with one currently situated over the central and eastern U.S., while another enters the West Coast by Wednesday. For the ongoing system, an area of low pressure churning over Iowa is expected to very slowly drift into the Upper Midwest through Wednesday before gradually dissipating on Thursday. Heavy snow is likely to the northwest of this low throughout central/southern Minnesota and into northern Wisconsin/U.P. of Michigan, with light freezing rain amounts extending just to the south of the better snow chances. Travel conditions could be treacherous at times within intense snowbands and areas of light freezing rain. Snow should decrease in intensity throughout this region by Wednesday night as the robust influx of moisture shifts to the East Coast. An anomalous and record-breakingly warm airmass surging up the eastern U.S. will allow for precipitation to fall as rain outside of northern New England. For portions of Upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, northern Massachusetts, and Maine, sleet and freezing rain is possible as cold air lingers at the surface while much warmer air flows in aloft. Freezing rain amounts up to at least a quarter of an inch are probable and could lead to scattered tree damage and power outages. With the extremely warm and moist airmass in place across the East Coast and Southeast, heavy rain and severe thunderstorms are likely ahead of an approaching cold front as it swings eastward tonight. The greatest threat for heavy rain to produce flash flooding is forecast over parts of central/southern Mississippi, where a Moderate Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued. Several inches of rain falling in a short amount of time could lead to several flash floods, with some potentially becoming significant. Residents are urged to plan ahead before traveling and make a plan if located in a flood-prone region. Never drive through flood waters! Additionally, severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Gulf Coast to the southern Appalachians and Southeast through early Wednesday. Damaging wind gusts, large hail, and tornadoes are possible, with the threat gradually weakening as the showers and storms push into Georgia and northern Florida. The other major weather story is about to enter the picture as an intense storm system over the eastern Pacific sends a strong atmospheric river into California on Wednesday and Thursday. A plethora of hazards are forecast, with heavy rain and strong winds expected to be the most widespread impact. Widespread rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches are anticipated, with locally higher amounts throughout the coastal ranges and over northern California. These rainfall amounts would normally not lead to widespread or significant impacts, but recent rainfall has left soils saturated and susceptible to flooding and rapid runoff concerns. Sensitive terrain will also have the potential for landslides. A Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the northern and central California coast, where flooding impacts are most likely. The heavy rain threat will shift southward along a cold front by late Wednesday into early Thursday into parts of southern California. However, by this point the area of heavy rain should be rather progressive and limit major impacts, with more scattered flooding concerns possible. Another aspect of this storm system will be the widespread hazardous winds to move onshore. Wind gusts up to 70 mph are possible across coastal ranges, while valley locations see gusts up to 50 mph. Power outages could become a more widespread issue where heavy rain and saturated soils lead to more downed trees. Rough surf is inherently likely along coastal regions as the high winds lead to hazardous seas. Lastly, the high terrain of the Sierra Nevada is forecast to experience extremely heavy snow rates above 3 inches per hour. These rates are probable for areas residing above 5000 feet and will make travel very dangerous to impossible at times. White out conditions will also be a concern when combined with gusty winds. Residents and visitors located in California over the next few days are advised to check their local forecast and plan ahead for potentially hazardous weather conditions.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the current precipitation forecast and the 10-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and additional information can be obtained HERE
Much of this information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |