Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 13, 2022

Updated at 4:30 pm December 14, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight, and the next 48 hours from Wednesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 17 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through Thursday in
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will continue to threaten
portions of the South and Southeast through tonight...

...Accumulating snow and freezing rain likely to impact the interior
Northeast and northern/central Appalachians Thursday into Friday...

 

Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both.

A major storm system system was moving from the central Plains towards the
Upper Midwest this afternoon and causing widespread heavy snow and
blizzard conditions in the northern/Central Plains and wintry mixed
precipitation in the Upper Midwest. Snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour and
winds gusting to 45-60 mph in the northern/central Plains will create near
zero visibility at times, and snow will cover roads. Travel will be
extremely difficult to nearly impossible in some areas, and power outages
and harsh livestock conditions are expected. The storm will track through
the Upper Midwest on Thursday, then slow down while weakening in the Great
Lakes region late this week. Hazardous conditions are expected to continue
across the northern Plains and intensify across the Upper Midwest on
Thursday. Additional snow accumulations of 8-12 inches are expected with
locally higher amounts possible for portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota,
and Wisconsin through Thursday. The highest snow accumulations are
expected across the Minnesota arrowhead where additional snowfall could
reach 18-24+ inches. Conditions will relax on Friday as the storm system
weakens.

A strong cold front is extending from the storm system impacting the north
central U.S. and causing severe weather in the South and Southeast. The
front was stretched along the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon while pushing east. Ahead of and along the front, conditions are
favorable for the development of many severe thunderstorms today. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a broad Enhanced Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 3/5) for much of the south near the northern Gulf
Coast with an embedded Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for portions of southeast
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and western/southern Alabama. Potential
severe storm threats include tornadoes, some may be strong, and damaging
thunderstorm winds, which will continue to threaten the region through
tonight. Convection is likely to be sustained and slow moving, which will
result in heavy downpours and flash flooding. There is a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) in effect from eastern Louisiana to western
Alabama through tonight where the risk of flash flooding is highest. As
the front progresses east on Friday, the severe weather threat will shift
into the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for parts of Florida, coastal/southern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina for Friday. Scattered severe storms
will be possible and the main threats will be a few tornadoes and damaging
thunderstorm winds.

Shifting back to the north, winter weather is expected to impact portions
of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday and Friday. The upper level low
associated with winter storm in the Plains/Upper Midwest will move east
and spawn a surface low along the east coast in the Mid-Atlantic region.
The low will track northwards along the coast through the end of the week.
Freezing rain and icy mixed precipitation are expected to begin early
Thursday morning in the northern/central Appalachians and portions of the
interior Mid-Atlantic region then expand into the interior Northeast
during the day on Thursday. Freezing rain totals between 0.1-.25 inches,
locally higher, will be possible in the Central Appalachians of western
Virginia, eastern West Virginia, the Maryland Panhandle, and
central/Western Pennsylvania. Icy precipitation could impact travel during
the morning commute along the I-95 corridor. As precipitation spreads
northwards, rain will develop across the Mid-Atlantic and snow is expected
over the interior Northeast. Snow will continue through Friday in the
interior Northeast and will be heavy at times at the higher elevations.
Precipitation will taper off over the weekend in the Northeast as the
system exits into the Atlantic.

Day 1 and Day 2 Maps can be found by clicking  Here for Day 1 and Here for  Day 2.  This Link works also.

WPC National Forecast Chart Static Images

WEDNESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

THURSDAY

FRIDAY (one extra day)

 

Current Two-day forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)

Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out

If it needs to be updated click here.

ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS

Click HERE to update.   Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.

Days 1 Through 5 and 6 – 10 (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)

Days 1 – 5  (3 – 7 for Temperature) Days 6 – 10
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr_mean.shtml https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will be. An alternate website is https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

Days 6 – 10 Outlook

An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.

HAZARDS OUTLOOKS (I update these graphics every two days – but the reader can get an update if they want but the situation usually does not change that quickly)

Click h     ere for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays.  Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.  

Worldwide Weather (The U.S. is part of the World so the U.S. forecast is included in these maps)

Below maps are the short-term forecast for precipitation and 10-day forecast for temperature and precipitation. I update the Day 1 Forecast daily and the ten-day forecasts every two days. A ten-day forecast is not likely to change much in 24 hours. But if you are looking at an out-of-date version of this article the current forecast maps can be obtained HERE.

Worldwide Tropical Forecast

(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here  This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below

Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans

Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE

First the Atlantic

Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=  atlc&fdays=5

Then Eastern Pacific

Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5

Then Central Pacific

Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5

And the Western Pacific

Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html

Some Longer U.S. Intermediate-Term Outlooks

Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for Two time periods. Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4.

You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.

Days 8 – 14 Weeks 3 and 4
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/
These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge. You can see where the weather will e

Month to Date Information

Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png

Month to date Precipitation can be found at  https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png

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