01Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Mixed As Yesterday’s Euphoria Over Powell’s Speech Wanes

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 193 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.13%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.08%,
  • Gold $1817 up $57.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.81,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.508% down 0.193%,
  • USD index $104.72 down $1.23,
  • Bitcoin $16,913 down $260.80

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022


Today’s Economic Releases:

Small businesses reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 21%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Nine percent of owners reported labor cost as their single most important problem, down one point from October.

U.S.-based employers announced 76,835 cuts in November, a 127% increase from the 33,843 cuts announced in October. It is 417% higher than the 14,875 cuts announced in the same month last year. The bulk of the job cuts were in the tech sector.

Disposable personal income (DPI) increased by 0.7% and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.8%. The PCE price index increased by 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased by 0.2%. Year-over-year growth shows income is down 4.9% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below whilst expenditures is up 2.1% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

Construction spending during October 2022 was estimated at 9.2% above the October 2021. Unfortunately, inflation in this sector is significant and the year-over-year growth is -8.7% (see graph below).

In the week ending November 26, the unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 228,750, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 226,750 to 227,000. Claims have stayed relatively stable throughout 2022.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in November for the first time since May 2020 after 29 consecutive months of growth, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM Report On Business. “The November Manufacturing PMI registered 49%, 1.2 percentage points lower than the 50.2% recorded in October. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Could Sink Without Further OPEC+ Action
  • Biden Administration Mulls Complete Revamp Of Biofuels Mandate
  • Scientists Find Two Completely New Minerals On Meteorite
  • Tax ‘refunds may be smaller in 2023,’ warns IRS. Here’s why
  • House approves tentative labor deal to avoid rail strike, sends to Senate
  • Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further
  • Jefferies Warns Employees Of Reduced Bonuses As Dealmaking Slows
  • Yield Curve Is Telling Us Next Fed Cutting Cycle Could Be Big

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

The Market in Perspective

Here are the headlines moving the markets.

Big Oils Tax Practices Are Under Fire As Profits Soar

Long have there been questions and scrutiny over oil majors’ tax practices, with the situation being exacerbated this year due to the global economic and energy crises in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While the U.K. and other countries have introduced a windfall tax on oil and gas majors, not everyone has responded in the same way. Now, the charity Oxfam is calling for greater transparency and accountability for the tax practices of major fossil fuel firms. Oil and gas firms have always been scrutinized for paying

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Big-Oils-Tax-Practices-Are-Under-Fire-As-Profits-Soar.html

Azerbaijan And Georgia Aim To Become An Energy Bridge To Europe

On October 24, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev arrived in Georgia for a one-day working visit. The abrupt nature of Aliyev’s visit was characterized as strange and mysterious by many experts in Tbilisi (Civil.ge; Netgazeti.ge, October 24). Indeed, the brevity of the visit and its format raised questions. David Avalishvili of Nation.ge underscored in a November 20 interview with this author that it looked like an emergency visit caused by the urgent need to discuss important geopolitical issues with the

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/International/Azerbaijan-And-Georgia-Aim-To-Become-An-Energy-Bridge-To-Europe.html

Oil Prices Could Sink Without Further OPEC+ Action

Oil prices could sink if OPEC+ acts in line with market expectations and agrees to keep production quotas stable for another month, some analysts told Reuters. The OPEC+ group meets on Sunday although this meeting was recently determined to be a virtual one. The virtual nature of the meeting has signaled to some that the group would refrain from making big changes to its production plans for January. If OPEC+ does fail to make big changes to its production quotas that is, if it fails to cut production even more oil prices could

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Oil-Prices-Could-Sink-Without-Further-OPEC-Action.html

Steel Prices Hammered By China’s Zero-Covid Flip-Flop

Via AG Metal Miner Uncertainty regarding China’s stance on zero-COVID, when restrictions might ease, and riots within China throughout recent weeks have all contributed to more flat steel prices. What’s more, recession fears are starting to notably impact commodities. Yet another contributing factor? Fears of a railroad strike. With the cut-off date for meeting the railroad union’s terms fast approaching, buyers and suppliers are getting nervous. If a strike were to happen, it would significantly disrupt domestic steel logistics,

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Steel-Prices-Hammered-By-Chinas-Zero-Covid-Flip-Flop.html

Biden Administration Mulls Complete Revamp Of Biofuels Mandate

The U.S. Biden Administration is mulling a complete revamp of the nearly two-decades-old biofuels mandate, according to Bloomberg. The EPA will issue an official proposal to amend the Renewable Fuel Standard on Thursday and could expand the standards to go beyond gasoline, diesel, and other liquid fuels and into the larger decarbonization of the transportation arena. The proposal would lift the amount of biofuel that must be mixed into gasoline and diesel over the next few years to possibly as much as 22.68 billion gallons by 2025. For comparison,

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Biden-Administration-Mulls-Complete-Revamp-Of-Biofuels-Mandate.html

Scientists Find Two Completely New Minerals On Meteorite

A team of researchers from the University of Alberta discovered at least two new minerals never before seen on Earth in a 15-ton meteorite that landed in east Africa. Unearthed in Somalia in 2020, the meteorite is the ninth largest ever found. When researchers sliced off a two-ounce section of the space rock, they found two new minerals named “elaliite” and “elkinstantonite.” Details about the minerals remain limited. “Whenever you find a new mineral, it means that the actual geological conditions, the chemistry of the rock, was different

Read more at: https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Scientists-Find-Two-Completely-New-Minerals-On-Meteorite.html

Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch to face questioning as part of Dominion Voting’s $1.6 billion lawsuit

Fox Corp. CEO Lachlan Murdoch, a son of Rupert Murdoch, will be deposed next week as the Dominion Voting Systems’ lawsuit progresses.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/fox-ceo-lachlan-murdoch-deposition-dominion-lawsuit.html

Kroger hikes forecast after stronger grocery sales top estimates

Kroger raised its forecast after its earnings topped expectations, with inflation pushing up the prices that shoppers pay for groceries.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/kroger-kr-earnings-q3-2022-.html

NBA champions Shaq and Alonzo Mourning talk charity, pickleball and the state of pro basketball

The former teammates are giving back to their community by refurbishing a basketball court in Miami.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/shaq-and-alonzo-mourning-talk-charity-nba-basketball-and-pickleball.html

Delta is making it harder to get into its airport lounges after they were flooded by travelers

Delta and other airlines have banked big on their loyalty programs in recent years.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/delta-making-lounge-access-harder-after-complaints-of-crowding-lines.html

Tax ‘refunds may be smaller in 2023,’ warns IRS. Here’s why

If you’re expecting a tax refund in 2023, it may be smaller than this year’s payment, according to the IRS. Here’s what to know for the upcoming tax season.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/01/heres-why-your-tax-refund-may-be-smaller-in-2023-the-irs-says.html

House approves tentative labor deal to avoid rail strike, sends to Senate

The House passed legislation Wednesday that would force a tentative rail labor agreement and thwart a national strike.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/rail-strike-house-approves-tentative-labor-deal.html

Mortgage rates fall for the third straight week, but demand still drops further

Mortgage rates continue to ease, but demand is not following, as there are few who can benefit from a refinance, and homebuyers are still facing high prices.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/mortgage-rates-fall-for-the-third-straight-week-but-demand-still-drops-further.html

Netflix CEO says he was slow to allow advertising because he was focused on Google and Facebook

Netflix founder and co-CEO Reed Hastings said he was slow to come around to advertising on the streaming platform because he was too focused on digital competition from Facebook and Google.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/netflix-ceo-reed-hastings-on-advertising-turnaround-focused-on-google-facebook.html

Airbnb launches platform allowing renters to host apartments, partnering with major landlords

The company said a new page on its site will list so-called Airbnb-friendly buildings, which will let tenants host their apartments just as homeowners can.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/airbnb-launches-first-hosting-platform-for-apartment-tenants.html

Tesla is still dominant, but its U.S. market share is eroding as cheaper EVs arrive

S&P Global Mobility forecasts Tesla’s market share will decline to less than 20% by 2025, as EV models grow from 48 today to 159 by then.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/teslas-dominance-of-evs-is-eroding-as-cheaper-cars-hit-the-market.html

Kroger, Albertsons CEOs defend grocery tie-up, say deal won’t hurt competition

Leaders of the two companies faced questions about how the deal could shake up the competitive landscape — and the prices consumers pay at the store.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/kroger-and-albertsons-executives-defend-proposed-merger-at-hearing.html

5 things to know before the stock market opens Wednesday

Here are the most important news items that investors need to start their trading day.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/30/5-things-to-know-before-the-stock-market-opens-wednesday.html

Shopper turnout hit record high over Black Friday weekend, retail trade group says

A record number of holiday shoppers turned out from Thanksgiving Day to Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation.

Read more at: https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/29/shopper-turnout-hit-record-over-black-friday-weekend-trade-group-says.html

Jefferies Warns Employees Of Reduced Bonuses As Dealmaking Slows

It looks as though the boom is officially over…and what better indicator could there be than banks starting to cut back on bonuses during the holiday season.

That’s exactly what’s happening at Jefferies, according to a new report by Bloomberg. The firm has warned its staff that 2022 is going to be a “difficult compensation season” as dealmaking slows down.

Jefferies chief executive Rich Handler and president Brian Friedman penned a memo that went out to employees this week, claiming that due to the bank’s aggressive hiring over the last 3 years, in combination with slumping deals, bonuses would come in lighter than normal.

The letter says: “As always, we will do the right thing for the long-term success of everyone at Jefferies and to continuously invest in our people and our firm, so we can continue to build and prosper. Let’s just spell it out here: ‘This is going to be a more difficult compensation season at Jefferies, just like it will be for every firm in our industry.'”

It continues: “2019 was a decent year for Jefferies and our industry. Despite Covid, 2020 was a very good year and we all know 2021 was the type of year that comes along very rarely in a finance professional’s career.”

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/jefferies-warns-employees-reduced-bonuses-dealmaking-slows

Yield Curve Is Telling Us Next Fed Cutting Cycle Could Be Big

Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,

The extent of the yield curve inversion is historically consistent with almost 500 bps of Fed cuts if the US goes into a recession.

Powell’s speech on Wednesday caused a lot of consternation. He reiterated his message that, yes, the pace of rate hikes was likely to slow, but that the Fed will need a restrictive policy for “some time” – aka “higher for longer”.

Even though the message has not changed, the market over the last month has moved the peak rate higher, but brought it closer, and priced in a much steeper subsequent pivot – “higher for shorter”, almost the diametric opposite of Powell’s sentiments.

The flattening of the back end of the fed funds curve is highly correlated with the flattening we have seen in the yield curve. 2s10s is now as inverted as it has been since the early 1980s, but when it comes to recessions, the more imminent sign is when the curv …

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/yield-curve-telling-us-next-fed-cutting-cycle-could-be-big

Disney CEO Iger ‘Sorry’ For Battle Against Florida, Tells Employees To ‘Respect’ Audience

Recently-returned Disney CEO Bob Iger says he’s “sorry” to see the company getting dragged into an ideological battle with Florida lawmakers over a ban on the discussion of sex and gender in early elementary classrooms.

Via Getty Images

The Florida law, which progressive critics described as the “Don’t say gay” bill, was passed in response to complaints from parents that children as young as five-years-old are being taught about transgenderism, homosexuality, and other sexual and gender topics – and prohibits teachers from discussing said topics with students in Kindergarten through 3rd grade.

While Disney didn’t immediately going other major corporations in condemning the bill, which was passed in March, however a group of activist employees lashed out at the company for not taking a public position – after with both Iger and his successor, Bob Chapek, spoke out.

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/disney-ceo-iger-sorry-battle-against-florida-tells-employees-respect-audience

Biden Administration Gives Trump Tax Returns To House Democrats

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

President Joe Biden’s administration has handed over years of former President Donald Trump’s federal tax returns to the U.S. House of Representatives.

“Treasury has complied with last week’s court decision,” a spokesperson for the Treasury Department, which includes the IRS, told The Epoch Times on Nov. 30.

Former President Donald Trump speaks at the Mar-a-Lago Club in Palm Beach, Fla., on Nov. 15, 2022. (Alon Skuy/AFP via Getty Images)

The U.S. Supreme Court recently rejected a request from the former president to block …

Read more at: https://www.zerohedge.com/political/biden-administration-gives-trump-tax-returns-house-democrats

Next rescues fashion chain Joules saving 1,450 jobs

Next says it will keep about 100 Joules stores open, but 19 will be closed with immediate effect.

Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63807159?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

House prices see biggest fall for two years, says Nationwide

Prices fell 1.4% in November as higher interest rates put off buyers, Nationwide says.

Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63818942?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Brexit added £210 to household food bills, LSE says

A new study suggests extra red tape and checks pushed up food bills in the UK over two years.

Read more at: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63821133?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA

Crypto coin cracks after luring Indians with 3,100% returns

India has seen its share of crypto frauds in recent years. In 2018, a police probe found that more than 25,000 investors were duped, while the nation’s top court is hearing a case on an alleged fraud worth about $1.6 billion at current prices. BitConnect, a global scam worth around $2.4 billion, had its roots in India.

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/cryptocurrency/crypto-coin-cracks-after-luring-indians-with-3100-returns/articleshow/95902196.cms

6 reasons why TCI Express could rally 20% in next 12 months

The logistics sector is estimated at 14% of India’s GDP and is slated to grow at 8-10% CAGR over the next five years. It is a highly fragmented sector with more than 90% share of unorganized players.

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/stocks/news/fundamental-radar-6-reasons-why-tci-express-could-rally-20-in-next-12-months/articleshow/95905724.cms

Tata Play becomes first firm to file confidential papers with Sebi for IPO

A confidential filing, as the moniker suggests, allows a company to privately file a registration statement for an IPO with the regulator for review, delaying the public filing until much closer to the actual IPO date.

Read more at: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/ipos/fpos/tata-play-becomes-first-firm-to-file-confidential-papers-with-sebi-for-ipo/articleshow/95904476.cms

The Moneyist: I’m a new mother, and can’t afford to pay $400 to attend a friend’s bachelorette party. Another friend backed out. Should I reconsider?

‘I declined to stay with the group in part due to my postpartum depression, not being with my child and finances.’

Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7160-3C8C38C30794%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1

Key Words: Suze Orman says, ‘We’re heading downhill very fast,’ unless employers start providing this critical benefit to their workers

A new bill with bipartisan support would help employees, supporters of that bill say.

Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-715E-61C5CD55742E%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1

The Ratings Game: Okta stock surges more than 25% as analysts approve of the company’s profit heading

Analysts praised the identity software company for heading in the right direction after it promised a profitable fiscal 2024 following a turbulent year

Read more at: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B20C06575-04D4-B545-7160-37FD83B865BA%7D&siteid=rss&rss=1

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