Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.
...Record breaking cold will continue through Thursday morning in the Southeast... ...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley... ...Dry weather will lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions for the Central and Northern Plains and the Lower Ohio River Valley through Thursday...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
A cold, dry air mass will remain in place over the Eastern US through Thursday. Low temperatures late tonight into early Thursday morning are forecast to be in the 30s for much of the Southeast, and record low daily minimum temperatures are expected across the region. Lows are forecast to be in the 30s across the Mid-Atlantic and portions of the Midwest as well, but daily records are not expected to be broken. Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley. For some locations this may be the first freeze of the season, which will impact sensitive crops and livestock. While the Eastern US remains cool, the Central US has begun heating up as a high pressure ridge builds into the region behind an eastward moving frontal boundary. The frontal boundary will continue moving east while weakening through Thursday afternoon. The ridge extends over the Western US as well, and this region has been experiencing above normal temperatures for the past several days. Friday into the weekend, southerly winds will develop across the Gulf coast and push warm, moist air into the Central and Eastern US resulting in warming temperatures. Temperatures are expected to cool heading into this weekend for the Western US as a cold front moves south across the region. The Continental US is expected to be mostly dry through Friday with no rainfall hazards expected. Low relative humidity, dry ground, and breezy winds will produce increased fire danger across portions of the Central and Northern Plains and Lower Ohio River Valley through Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted these areas for Elevated Fire Weather conditions with an area of Critical Fire Weather conditions highlighted in Central and Eastern Montana for Thursday. Fire Weather Watches and Red Flag Warnings are in effect for these regions, and rapid fire spread will be possible. The dry period is expected to come to an end this weekend as a frontal system moves into the US from the northwest.
Current forecast of heavy precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out
If it needs to be updated click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
Click HERE to update. HERE is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here This is a new approach and covers weeks 2 and 3 not weeks 1 and 2. It has more information but I am having trouble getting used to it. As usual, it comes with a discussion which is below
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are four maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern, Central Pacific, and Western Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc .noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin= atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
Worldwide Weather
Below is the current or short-term precipitation forecast which can be updated by clicking HERE Additional maps can be obtained H ERE.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
