Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.
...There is a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas through Friday morning... ...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast and Central Plains through Thursday morning... ...Excessive Heat Warning and Heat Advisories over parts of the West Coast...
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast (It is updated twice a day and these updates can be found here.
Upper-level energy and ample amounts of moisture will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over southwestern Texas. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create numerous areas of flash flooding. Furthermore, many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. In addition, due to the cloud cover and rain, the temperatures over southwestern Texas will be 10 to 15 degrees below average through Friday. The threat of excessive rainfall will reduce on Friday over western Texas. However, the system will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms with possible heavy rain over the area through Friday evening. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of southwestern Texas through Friday evening. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. Meanwhile, a front over Southeastern Canada will move over parts of the Northeast, moving off the Northeast Coast by Thursday evening. The front will destabilize the atmosphere over parts of the Northeast, producing showers and thunderstorms that will become strong to severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Northeast through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Moreover, upper-level energy over the Central Plains will also aid in producing showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday evening into Thursday. The energy will help destabilize the atmosphere over parts of the Central Plains, producing showers and thunderstorms that will become strong to severe. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Central Plains through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a minimal threat of tornadoes. Additionally, tropical moisture and a weak front will aid in producing showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Gulf Coast into the Southeast through Friday. Furthermore, an upper-level ridge over the West Coast extending into the Great Basin/Northern Intermountain Region will remain over the area through Friday. Excessive Heat Warnings are over most of California into parts of far western Arizona through Friday. High temperatures will be in the 100 to 110 degrees in some places, with nighttime lows in the 80s. Heat Advisories are over parts of the interior Pacific Northwest into the Northern Intermountain Region and Great Basin through Friday. High temperatures will be in the upper-90s and low temperatures in the mid-60s. In addition, a few locations will have record high low temperatures contributing to areas not cooling off overnight, which will also contribute to the effects of heat over parts of the Northwest. There are two areas of Elevated Risk of fire weather over parts of the Northern Intermountain Region.
Maps that relate the forecast to geography can be found by clicking Here for Day 1 and Here for Day 2.
Here is a 60-hour animated forecast map that shows how the short-term forecast is expected to play out.
If it needs to be updated click here.
HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click h ere for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast
(This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here
Detailed Maps and Reports for the Western Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans
Below are three maps that summarize the situation for the Atlantic, Eastern and Central Pacific. Additional information can be accessed by clicking HERE
First the Atlantic
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5
Then Eastern Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=epac&fdays=5
Then Central Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=cpac&fdays=5
And the Western Pacific
Click to view the forecast map and have access to additional information https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/jtwc.html
Some Intermediate-Term Outlooks
Links to “Outlook” maps and discussions for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information from deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
You have to click on the links because they do not update automatically and I do not want to have stale images in the article. But it is not difficult to click on a link and you get a large image plus a discussion. On Fridays in a separate article, we will show the images and provide a link in this article that article. But remember what you will see is the images as of Friday. But here you can get the current images simply by clicking on them. Then hit the return arrow at the upper left of your screen to return to the article. You will not find this information easily anywhere else.
Right now you can find these maps here (We show them every Friday there but you can click above and find them).
World Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)
World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately, I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the “Back Arrow” usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and air pressure forecasts for six days out. They will not auto-update and right now are current for Day 6. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here I will try to update this map each day but you have the link so you can access the dashboard and get a wide variety of forecasts.I mostly rely on the reader to interpret world maps. For this map, areas of expected precipitation for the date and time shown are clearly shown. The number of High-Pressure systems shown is called the Wave Number. Maybe I will discuss WN someday. But it shows how many Rossby Waves there are around the World. Sometimes they are hard to count. Counting Low-Pressure systems should provide the same WN. Rossby Waves are the way the temperature distribution of the Planet remains in balance. It is basically the science of fluid dynamics. It can be very helpful in predicting the movement of weather patterns. You can snip an area of interest and move it into MS Paint and enlarge it.
Month to Date Information
Month to date Temperature can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Month to date Precipitation can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthPNormUS.png
